Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Recommended Posts

Thought I'd post a new topic for the current meteorological season.

Some interesting weather coming up... (Summer Monsoons/Depressions)

metslp.120.png

UW144-21.GIF?02-07

h500slp.png

ukprec.png

ukwind.png

h500slp.png

ukprec.png

ukprec.png

hgt300.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS model has been showing quite a windy spell of weather possibly for Friday for a few days now.

If it comes off then there could be 35-45mph gusts for southern England Inland and higher on the coasts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that 'Summer Monsoon' sums-up the next two weeks' weather quite nicely...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS model has been showing quite a windy spell of weather possibly for Friday for a few days now.

If it comes off then there could be 35-45mph gusts for southern England Inland and higher on the coasts.

I think that 'Summer Monsoon' sums-up the next two weeks' weather quite nicely...

Never underestimate the power of the Summer Monsoons, would be quite nice to get some ex-tropical stuff blasting up this way pretty soon... that itself can change weather patterns!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The June monsoon? Like June 2007? tease.gif

Sadly our monsoon ain't the thundery or torrential type like in Florida or India, just cold rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope this is just a blip :(

post-12648-0-92499700-1338794892_thumb.j

Little way off yet but :S help.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope this is just a blip sad.png

post-12648-0-92499700-1338794892_thumb.j

Little way off yet but :S help.gif

This low is starting to look a little worrying actually.

If that comes off there will easily be tree damage considering they are in fall leaf now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely a very unsettled period this will be... Lots of reservoir topping up rainfall.

h500slp.png

prcpLondon.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A interesting low pressure system will make its way over Southern parts of the UK on Thursday and Friday this week.

First lets see what each model currently says about how low it will get,

GFS 980mb

ECM 980mb

GEM 985mb

NOGAPS 985mb

UKMO 985mb

JMA 990mb

Met Office statement,

Rather cool, windy and very unsettled, with rain spreading across the country on Thursday. Further wind, rain or heavy showers thereafter. A risk of gales in the south on Friday.

Will do a more into depth post nearer the time I think the rain totals and top wind gusts will be interesting especially for June.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Met Office have issued a warning for Thursday and Friday

Southwesterly gales are likely to develop across much of southwest England during Thursday afternoon and extend into parts of south Wales on Thursday evening. The public should be prepared for disruption to travel and outdoor activities. Damage to trees may also occur. The gales are also likely to be accompanied by heavy rain.

This warning has been upgraded to Amber for Cornwall, The Isles of Scilly, and parts of Devon.

More >> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am surprised there's so little interest in tonights system

I suppose it's more hitting Ireland, looks like there could be 4 inches of rain in my area

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very unseasonable weather hitting the S & SW UK over the next few days courtesy of a very deep depression developing. Gale force winds with gusts around 60mph possible over exposed areas, not good news for the trees as most are now in full leaf which will be acting like a sail in the wind.... Also very heavy rainfall associated with this system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

80 mph gusts maybe for the most exposed places on the south-west coast?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is June and we are seeing something arriving on the doorstep that is usually seen from october to march generally-and not always from the direction it is coming from(sw) this is a storm system that is developing, this in winter would cause some disruption, the flooding from the rainfall would be evident in any month this type of storm came in, it would be very noticable, but today we are in full leaf, it is the time of year where we are not expecting these storms to appear, the concern being from fallen trees affecting rail and road, the trees more easily falling due to full leaf cover-more area for the wind to push on, and falling onto power lines, more outside events to get canceled, All this over the next two days, thursday and friday this week is likely to be distruptive for many areas, if the winds don't affect your area then the rain might well cause problems, some places are likely to experience both severe rains and severe winds, resulting in siginificant distruption.

Some areas are likely to see prolonged heavy rainfall resulting in floods, also torrential rains in places,

not all areas seeing many many hours of heavy rain, but quite likely bands of heavy downpours.

please keep watch on the weather warnings and see if your area is at risk.

I have created two maps here, one is for rainfall and another for the winds

Rainfall Warning

post-11361-0-79441200-1339038970_thumb.g

Gale Warning

post-11361-0-71032000-1339038943_thumb.g

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been following progress and posting in the SE and EA regional thread, but here are a few pointers from me for overnight as I might be in one of the areas of greatest risk in the early hours through rush hour:

30_21.gif

48_10.gif

runs through the morning:

36_21.gif

54_10.gif

30_45.gif

GFS now has the main gusts slightly further North:

gfs_gusts_eur30.png

gfs_gusts_eur33.png

48_25.gif

Gusting over 90 km/h through Essex and East Anglia?

54_25.gif

Hi res HiRALM has the action still along the Channel coasts and inland from there:

hir_gusts_eur30.png

hir_gusts_eur33.png

Batten down the hatches, it's more like January than June!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm glad its the Channel tunnel this afternoon and not the ferry I'm using!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm glad its the Channel tunnel this afternoon and not the ferry I'm using!

Wise decision John, don't forget the duty free!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Might be a good idea to take the bunting down (if like me you haven't) and not park the car under that precariously looking tree.....

Looking quite feisty on the extra radar already - will have this on my desktop running all day!

This should be interesting tonight - I'm in the process of having building done on the house, and there are lots of bits of Tarpaulin etc covering stuff up. Flap flap!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

looking at the radar lot of wild weather leaving france should get interesting in the south and east of the uk later!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great time to be on the South Coast.. wish I was there right now (not being sarcastic either!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great time to be on the South Coast.. wish I was there right now (not being sarcastic either!)

Something looks like its on it's way, will it get here?

post-6667-0-82833300-1339061382.png

post-6667-0-57072300-1339061614.png

There is certainly a lot forecast for later:

hir_prec_eur15.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Currently very heavy rain here from this second pulse, 25mm already with another 2 inches or so forecast to be on the way.

Met Office Amber warnings for flooding and wind damage are out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn't look like it will effect this part of the Southwest too badly.. Meant to have about an inch of rain later, and some 40-50mph gusts, but that's about it. But 980mb - Isn't that like a December/January thing? O_o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Winds haven't really started here yet, but it's very wet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Similar Content

    • By StormyWeather28
      I expect Storm Callum will become the third named Storm of the Season today or tomorrow. Latest Runs show quiet a nasty System for Ireland and Western Scotland. Gusts of 70-80mph widely over land, up to 90mph and possibly up to 100mph on coasts. Stay tuned.
      UKMO T72

      GFS T72 T78


      ICON T71 81 84 87




      12Z ECM Gusts(I will mist this mornings run)
      Gust as it approaches SW Ireland

       
       
       
    • By The PIT
      All the attention on Helena at the moment but this feature seems to be sneaking under the radar and looks like to bring strong winds to much more of the country and much more widespread heavy rain. If it turns up could bring some widespread issues with trees generally still in full leaf.
    • By Jo Farrow
      Just named jointly by Met Office and Met Eireann
      Yellow warnings at the mo, for Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, north Wales, northern England WEDNESDAY
      https://www.met.ie/warnings
      https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-09-19
    • By Nick F
      Storm & Convective Forecast

      Issued 2018-08-06 21:33:50
      Valid: 07/08/2018 00z to 08/08/2018 00z
      THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - TUESDAY 7TH AUGUST 2018
      Synopsis
      North Atlantic upper trough will begin to amplify S and SE across the far west of Britain during Tuesday, with a strengthening upper flow across the UK – as SWly jet stream shifts S and E across the UK. Ahead of the jet streak, a weak surface cold front will progress slowly east, to lie North York Moors - West Sussex by 00z Weds. A very hot, humid and increasingly unstable airmass ahead of the cold front across SE England and East Anglia is forecast to destabilise and produce thunderstorms in the evening here before the front clears through and introduces cooler and more stable air.
      … SE ENGLAND and E ANGLIA …
      Surface-based CAPE will build up through the day due to surface heating of humid plume in conjunction with lapse rates steepening in association with advection north of EML (elevated mixed layer) aloft. However, this surface instability is likely to remain capped. However, a shortwave in the strengthening flow aloft will move NE from Bay of Biscay area in the morning crossing NW France in the afternoon. The increased lift by the shortwave along NW edge of hot and humid plume over France and SE UK combined with increasing mid-level instability as dry air intrusion punches NE overlapping plume, is forecast by many models to break out thunderstorms across Brittany and Normandy by early evening, before spreading / expanding NE across SE England then East Anglia through the evening.
      Thunderstorms are likely to be elevated, though 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear forecast will allow storm organisation into clusters, perhaps even an MCS passing over parts of Kent and eastern E Anglia, so there is potential for strong storms that may bring locally intense downpours leading to flash-flooding, isolated hail, strong wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. These storms should clear away NE into the North Sea after midnight.
      Issued by: Nick Finnis
    • By Supacell
      A new thread for all things convective around the UK going into the summer of 2018.
      Old thread here:
      Convective weather relating to Europe should go into here:
      A chance of a few thunderstorms this week with central and southern parts of England and Wales looking most at risk. Although Monday is now moving into the reliable timeframe it is still too early to discuss specifics for the week as a whole. It is likely though that this week will provide some thundery showers or storms for a few of us. An easterly flow will probably favour more western areas for home grown storms, but elevated storms from the continent could also affect southern and south-eastern areas at times.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×