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Daily C.E.T. Average Values 1772-2011


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Thanks John, I have been extensively number-crunching for research and these tables are just a diversion from that work which takes up a good chunk of my time, as I try to compare various index values

Major consecutive record days ____________________________   (Max) ____________________________________ (Min)   7 -- 28 June to 4 July 1976 ... this former record has been rem

Weather-history pointed out that no December CET has finished on 5.9.  I looked into the records to see how unusual that was compared to other months and their missing values. There was only

I did a similar list a while back, only instead I used five or more consecutive days of 18C or above as the threshold (http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/63137-cet-hot-spells/).

 

Here's the full list again (I originally miscalculated the last entry, but now it's corrected):

 

5-15th August 1773 – 19.65

12-16th July 1778 – 19.90

3-7th August 1778 – 18.92

9-16th July 1779 – 19.60

11-15th August 1779 – 19.38

26th August – 2nd September 1779 – 18.86

28th June – 3rd July 1780 – 18.85

8-13th August 1781 – 19.63

8-20th July 1783 – 19.48

17-21st August 1783 – 18.68

27th June – 1st July 1785 – 18.70

24-28th May 1788 – 18.58

9-14th August 1792 – 19.77

10-17th July 1793 – 20.41

14-18th July 1797 – 20.24

24-30th July 1797 – 19.26

30th July – 4th August 1800 – 19.92

15-20th August 1800 – 19.40

4-10th August 1802 – 18.71

12-17th August 1803 – 18.68

11-20th July 1808 – 21.40

18-24th June 1817 – 19.83

14-19th July 1818 – 19.08

21-27th July 1818 – 20.20

24-28th June 1820 – 20.92

12-20th July 1825 – 21.28

26th June – 11th July 1826 – 20.26

30th July – 3rd August 1826 – 19.60

25-31st July 1830 – 20.41

27th July – 1st August 1831 – 19.07

7-12th June 1835 – 18.93

23-28th July 1837 – 19.40

14-20th August 1837 – 18.76

3-7th June 1846 – 19.62

11-22nd June 1846 – 19.94

28th July – 2nd August 1846 – 20.25

10-16th July 1847 – 20.54

4-17th July 1852 – 20.38

30th July – 5th August 1856 – 20.19

9-14th August 1856 – 19.30

23-28th June 1857 – 19.22

31st July – 5th August 1857 – 18.90

15-20th July 1859 – 19.90

26-30th June 1866 – 18.94

9-15th July 1866 – 18.96

7-11th July 1868 – 18.72

1-6th August 1868 – 20.62

19-27th July 1870 – 19.56

9-14th August 1871 – 19.82

20-28th July 1872 – 19.34

13-18th July 1876 – 19.92

12-17th August 1876 – 21.20

23-29th June 1878 – 20.44

17-22nd July 1878 – 21.00

7-13th August 1884 – 20.50

23-27th July 1885 – 19.66

2-6th July 1886 – 19.06

7-13th July 1887 – 19.10

15-19th June 1893 – 19.74

8-21st August 1893 – 20.36

24-28th September 1895 – 18.58

2-7th August 1897 – 19.92

11-16th August 1898 – 19.32

3-9th September 1898 – 19.96

30th July – 5th August 1899 – 19.24

23-27th August 1899 – 19.66

18-28th July 1900 – 19.98

8-12th July 1901 – 19.02

17-21st July 1901 – 21.58

13-17th July 1904 – 18.84

11-15th July 1905 – 19.16

25th July – 3rd August 1911 – 20.08

7-14th August 1911 – 20.90

7-20th July 1921 – 20.45

5-15th July 1923 – 20.66

21-25th July 1925 – 20.66

11-15th July 1926 – 20.94

26-30th August 1930 – 21.54

16-20th August 1932 – 19.98

3-8th June 1933 – 19.67

2-8th July 1933 – 19.89

23-27th July 1933 – 19.38

3-8th August 1933 – 21.00

5-13th July 1934 – 19.89

21-25th June 1935 – 20.96

10-15th July 1935 – 19.83

1-7th August 1937 – 18.97

31st July – 11th August 1938 – 19.09

26-30th August 1939 – 18.28

5-10th June 1940 – 19.28

18-22nd June 1941 – 20.12

6-14th July 1941 – 20.04

27th July – 1st August 1943 – 20.30

9-13th July 1946 – 18.96

29th May – 4th June 1947 – 20.83

25th July – 3rd August 1947 – 19.71

12-23rd August 1947 – 20.28

25-31st July 1948 – 21.93

26-30th June 1949 – 19.64

21-27th July 1949 – 20.20

3-7th June 1950 – 19.92

26th June – 2nd July 1952 – 19.53

19-23rd July 1952 – 18.98

7-18th July 1955 – 19.43

30th July – 3rd August 1955 – 18.80

16-26th August 1955 – 19.95

15-19th June 1957 – 19.34

27th June – 1st July 1957 – 19.82

22-26th July 1959 – 19.32

19-26th August 1959 – 19.83

12-16th July 1969 – 19.84

7-11th June 1970 – 20.38

1-6th August 1970 – 19.07

7-12th July 1971 – 18.92

13-17th August 1973 – 19.96

27th July – 15th August 1975 – 20.35

22nd June – 9th July 1976 – 22.04

11-16th July 1976 – 18.78

11-26th August 1976 – 19.05

1-6th June 1982 – 19.45

30th July – 6th August 1982 – 19.31

4-18th July 1983 – 20.81

22-31st July 1983 – 19.45

17-26th August 1983 – 18.98

18-25th August 1984 – 19.70

29th August – 3rd September 1984 – 19.02

26-30th June 1986 – 20.06

16-20th June 1989 – 19.10

17-26th July 1989 – 20.67

18-22nd July 1990 – 19.50

30th July – 4th August 1990 – 21.25

22-29th August 1990 – 19.63

31st August – 4th September 1991 – 18.98

20-27th July 1994 – 19.40

7-14th July 1995 – 19.41

24th July – 6th August 1995 – 21.04

15-23rd August 1995 – 20.81

19-23rd July 1996 – 19.48

17-21st August 1996 – 19.60

6-23rd August 1997 – 20.84

7-11th August 1998 – 19.34

7-12th July 1999 – 19.15

30th July – 6th August 1999 – 20.08

2-6th September 1999 – 18.82

1-7th July 2001 – 20.33

25th July – 1st August 2001 – 19.60

26-30th July 2002 – 19.84

13-19th July 2003 – 20.13

4-13th August 2003 – 21.69

1-12th August 2004 – 19.71

14-18th August 2004 – 18.38

10-15th July 2005 – 20.63

30th June – 6th July 2006 – 20.64

16-30th July 2006 – 21.21

23-31st July 2008 – 19.28

27th June – 3rd July 2009 – 20.39

26th June – 2nd July 2010 – 18.60

 

 

The five-day period 28th September-2nd October 2011 just missed the cut (four days of 18C+ follwed by a 17.9C) - had it made it to the list it would have been the latest hot spell in the calendar and the first to go into October.

Edited by AderynCoch
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  • 1 month later...

Hey AderynCoch, I like your table and have taken the liberty of editing it down to spells of ten days and longer as follows: (July 2013, 2014 added in edit)

 

DURATION __ RANK for LENGTH __ RANK for AVG CET (first 10)  ____ DATES (continuously above 18.0) & MEAN CET

 

11 _________ 19t ________ xx ______ 5-15th August 1773 __ 19.65

 

13 _________ 13 ________ xx _______8-20th July 1783 __ 19.48

 

10 _________ 24t _________ 3 ______11-20th July 1808 __ 21.40

 

16 _________ 5t ________ xx _______ 26th June - 11th July 1826 __ 20.26

 

12 _________ 14t ________ xx ______ 11-22nd June 1846 __ 19.94

 

14 _________ 9t ________ xx _______ 4-17th July 1852 __ 20.38

 

14 _________ 9t ________ xx ________ 8th-21st August 1893 __ 20.36

 

11 _________ 19t ________ xx _______ 18-28th July 1900 __ 19.98

 

10 _________ 24t ________ xx _______ 25th July -- 3rd August 1911 __ 20.08

 

14 _________ 9t ________ 10 ________7-20th July 1921 __ 20.45

 

11 _________ 19t _________ 9 ________5-15th July 1923 __ 20.66

 

12 _________ 14t ________ xx _______31st July -- 11th August 1938 __ 19.09

 

10 _________ 24t ________ xx _______25th July -- 3rd August 1947 __ 19.71

 

12 _________ 14t ________ xx _______12-23rd August 1947 __ 20.28

 

12 _________ 14t ________ xx ________7-18th July 1955 __ 19.43

 

11 _________ 19t ________ xx _______16-26th August 1955 __ 19.95

 

20 __________ 1 ________ xx _______ 27th July -- 15th August 1975 __ 20.35

 

18 _________ 2t _________ 1 ________22nd June -- 9th July 1976 __ 22.04

 

16 _________ 5t ________ xx ________11-26th August 1976 __19.05

 

15 _________ 7t _________ 7 ________ 4-18th July 1983 __ 20.81

 

10 _________ 24t ________ xx _______ 22-31st July 1983 __19.45

 

10 _________ 24t ________ xx ________17-26th August 1983 __18.98

 

10 _________ 24t ________ 8 ________ 17-26th July 1989 __ 20.67

 

14 _________ 9t _________ 5 ________ 24th July -- 6th August 1995 __21.04

 

18 _________ 2t __________ 6 ________6-23rd August 1997 __ 20.84

 

10 _________ 24t _________ 2 ________4-13th August 2003 __ 21.69

 

12 _________ 14t ________ xx ________1-12th August 2004 __19.71

 

15 _________ 7t _________ 4 _________16-30th July 2006 __ 21.21

 

17 _________ 4 __________ xx ________13-29th July 2013 __19.56*

 

11 _________ 19t ________ xx _________17-27th July 2014 __19.90

 

*with one day at 17.7 (30th July) this spell went to 21 days (ending 2 Aug) same CET of 19.56

 

__________________________________________________

 

NOTES:

 

Ranking for mean temp shows only the top ten because it is likely that below that range, the spells shown here have been matched by more variable spells (not consecutively > 18.0) of similar durations. The 1976 spell is even more remarkable when you consider that a further week of hot weather occurred after one day failed to reach 18.0. My next post later this month (summer?) will compare whatever spell of consecutive 18.0 days we reach in July 2013.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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The provisional CET values show that this hot spell has now (barely) qualified from 12th to 21st with a mean of 19.88 C. Will await the final numbers as some days in the spell could possibly be revised below 18.0. Comparison at this point shows that the spell will be similar to two of 11-12 days in summer 1955 especially if the next two days qualify and then there's a downward revision of final data after they come in hotter than the spell so far.

 

The largest number of consecutive 20.0 days so far has been three, also subject to revision.

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As of the 22nd the hot spell stands at 11 days mean 20.03, today will make it 12 days and probably close to 20.1 C for a mean, so it's beginning to edge up in the rankings (on AderynCoch's system). This spell could only make my own list if it reeled off a string of 20+ days which looks a bit doubtful past tomorrow. It could extend quite a while in the 18+ system subject to revisions in the final data.

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The provisional numbers now show a 12-day hot spell that averages 20.07 C. Some projections show this extending another eight days (including today for sure) which will begin to move it quite high in the rankings for duration, but we may have now peaked for mean temperature of the spell. This all depends on final adjusted data maintaining the cooler days in the spell at >18.0

 

Rather than posting daily updates, I will now wait for the final data and make some final comments (on the July portion at least, if it appears like extending into August at that point).

 

 

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Hi Roger, haven't clicked on this thread in a while. Thanks for you analysis of my list.

 

Since the 6th all days bar the 11th have averaged 18C or greater. With at least a few more such days to come, it's a bit of a shame the 11th failed to reach the mark because otherwise we would have almost certainly beaten the 20-day record from 1975. As it stands we're on 13 days and counting.

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In the provisional figures, the >18.0 spell lasted 18 days from 12th to 29th and averaged 19.82 C. If this holds up in the final numbers it would be the third spell to reach 18 days after one that reached 20, so in other words tied for second place with two others in 1976 and 1997. The mean temperature was not as high as the 1976 spell and similar to the 1997 spell.  However, the length of this very warm spell may be reduced in the final figures. Meanwhile it failed to reach the lists of >20.0 even when one day cooler than 20 is allowed, the best this spell could do was seven out of nine with two consecutive days below 20.

 

No daily records were set and the month (after expected adjustments) will join the group of warm but not quite exceptional summer months with CET values in the 18.0 to 18.6 range. The cold North Sea may have mitigated what would otherwise have been a more remarkable outcome. However, the month has reversed that anomaly so that August will have a better chance of creating a memorable result if the pattern returns.

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thanks for that data Roger. How does this July compare with the summer months of 2006 in terms of consecutive days with >18.0C or higher please if you have that data?

 

many thanks

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See post 28 above John, that was my edited version of AderynCoch's list and it shows a 15-day period from 16th to 30th July 2006 above 18.0, but that averaged above 21.2 deg. I think this past July basically failed to generate any extreme heat (especially in the CET region) but was a player in terms of sustained warmth. In statistical terms would have to say the summer so far seems to be similar to 1955 or 1997 more than say 2003 or 2006 or 1995. Subjectively of course I'm not in a very good position to say.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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  • 3 months later...

In the table of record highs and lows for each date, please note a new entry:

 

(2013, tied) 25 Oct 14.0 (with 1978)

 

several other days were warmer in late October but these fell short of existing records for those dates.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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  • 2 weeks later...

Update to post 16 (annual extremes)

 

To date, add these data for 2013

 

Warmest daily mean 22.7 on 1 Aug

 

Coldest daily mean (calendar year) -2.9 on 16 Jan

 

Coldest daily mean (winter 2012-13) -2.9 on 16 Jan 2013

Edited by Roger J Smith
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  • 8 months later...

UPDATES

___________

 

 

So far in 2014, no new daily CET records have been set (to 6 August).

 

The coldest day of the winter season (Oct-Apr) in winter 2013-14 set a new record high by quite a large margin. This value was 2.5 on 23 November, 2013. The previous high value for this statistic was 1.7 in the winter season of 1974-75.

 

This confirms that -2.9 (16 Jan 2013) remains the coldest day of 2013. To date the coldest day of 2014 is 3.0 on 30 January.

 

To date the warmest day of 2014 is 21.0 on 18 July (confirmed in edit on 3 Nov).

Edited by Roger J Smith
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  • 4 weeks later...

Post #2 in this thread became unreadable at some point recently due to some coding problems on the site. This is a reconstruction of that post (which also lost its title).

 

CET daily averages for 1981-2010

 

DATE ...

 .......... JAN .... FEB .... MAR .... APR ..... MAY .... JUN .... JUL .... AUG ..... SEP .... OCT .... NOV .... DEC

 

01 ..... 4.45 .... 4.44 .... 4.97 .... 8.26 .. 10.74 .. 13.38 .. 15.97 .. 16.82 .. 15.38 .. 12.77 .... 9.40 .... 5.49

02 ..... 4.58 .... 4.52 .... 4.79 .... 8.01 .. 10.35 .. 13.69 .. 15.99 .. 16.80 .. 15.44 .. 12.35 .... 9.06 .... 5.61

03 ..... 4.34 .... 4.70 .... 5.05 .... 7.30 .. 10.38 .. 13.27 .. 15.89 .. 16.93 .. 15.38 .. 12.17 .... 9.11 .... 5.96

04 ..... 4.38 .... 5.09 .... 4.75 .... 7.05 .. 10.36 .. 13.15 .. 16.09 .. 16.88 .. 14.82 .. 11.94 .... 8.64 .... 6.11

05 ..... 4.64 .... 5.29 .... 5.42 .... 7.19 .. 10.51 .. 13.30 .. 16.45 .. 17.20 .. 15.29 .. 11.75 .... 8.22 .... 6.26

06 ..... 4.61 .... 5.49 .... 6.32 .... 7.43 .. 10.93 .. 13.75 .. 16.41 .. 17.13 .. 15.12 .. 11.95 .... 8.08 .... 5.07

07 ..... 3.45 .... 4.89 .... 6.55 .... 7.30 .. 10.90 .. 14.08 .. 16.25 .. 16.74 .. 15.08 .. 11.83 .... 8.32 .... 4.85

08 ..... 3.99 .... 4.45 .... 6.47 .... 7.06 .. 10.77 .. 13.99 .. 16.42 .. 16.67 .. 15.07 .. 11.95 .... 8.76 .... 4.36

09 ..... 4.31 .... 4.02 .... 6.27 .... 7.30 .. 10.70 .. 14.09 .. 16.19 .. 16.87 .. 14.79 .. 11.97 .... 8.18 .... 4.34

10 ..... 4.45 .... 4.13 .... 6.83 .... 8.12 .. 10.72 .. 14.32 .. 16.60 .. 16.80 .. 14.63 .. 12.22 .... 8.06 .... 4.27

 

11 ..... 4.36 .... 4.27 .... 6.51 .... 8.01 .. 10.97 .. 13.71 .. 16.67 .. 16.73 .. 14.82 .. 11.58 .... 8.25 .... 4.19

12 ..... 4.26 .... 4.77 .... 5.90 .... 7.77 .. 11.22 .. 13.92 .. 16.49 .. 16.82 .. 14.39 .. 11.37 .... 8.18 .... 4.28

13 ..... 4.54 .... 4.00 .... 6.23 .... 7.56 .. 11.59 .. 14.02 .. 16.55 .. 16.37 .. 13.89 .. 11.22 .... 7.23 .... 4.62

14 ..... 4.49 .... 3.36 .... 6.53 .... 7.99 .. 11.63 .. 14.27 .. 16.76 .. 16.85 .. 13.74 .. 10.80 .... 6.89 .... 4.48

15 ..... 4.66 .... 3.57 .... 6.99 .... 8.25 .. 11.68 .. 14.21 .. 16.99 .. 16.91 .. 13.63 .. 10.74 .... 6.81 .... 4.57

16 ..... 4.75 .... 3.63 .... 6.89 .... 8.60 .. 11.38 .. 14.85 .. 16.72 .. 16.63 .. 13.86 .. 10.25 .... 6.79 .... 4.53

17 ..... 4.45 .... 3.66 .... 7.43 .... 8.41 .. 11.36 .. 15.04 .. 16.27 .. 16.58 .. 13.90 .... 9.87 .... 6.23 .... 4.44

18 ..... 4.35 .... 3.81 .... 7.09 .... 8.11 .. 11.53 .. 14.87 .. 16.45 .. 16.46 .. 13.80 .. 10.00 .... 6.65 .... 4.34

19 ..... 4.89 .... 4.07 .... 6.68 .... 8.11 .. 11.93 .. 15.26 .. 16.88 .. 16.88 .. 13.64 .. 10.00 .... 6.32 .... 4.30

20 ..... 5.04 .... 3.95 .... 6.54 .... 8.39 .. 12.32 .. 14.98 .. 17.08 .. 16.77 .. 14.02 .... 9.74 .... 5.99 .... 3.75

 

21 ..... 4.98 .... 4.23 .... 6.61 .... 9.08 .. 12.17 .. 14.50 .. 16.81 .. 16.36 .. 13.63 .... 9.77 .... 5.67 .... 4.30

22 ..... 4.35 .... 4.25 .... 6.91 .... 9.36 .. 12.19 .. 14.61 .. 16.78 .. 16.43 .. 13.69 .... 9.57 .... 5.74 .... 4.45

23 ..... 4.44 .... 4.33 .... 6.95 .... 9.64 .. 12.86 .. 14.90 .. 16.78 .. 16.11 .. 13.42 .... 9.61 .... 5.76 .... 4.69

24 ..... 4.58 .... 4.58 .... 7.41 .... 9.64 .. 13.35 .. 14.91 .. 16.47 .. 16.08 .. 12.76 .... 9.36 .... 6.00 .... 4.68

25 ..... 4.21 .... 4.21 .... 7.33 .. 10.15 .. 12.45 .. 15.31 .. 17.03 .. 15.78 .. 12.73 .... 9.39 .... 6.20 .... 4.50

26 ..... 4.16 .... 4.80 .... 7.22 .. 10.02 .. 12.50 .. 15.33 .. 17.20 .. 15.73 .. 12.79 .... 9.54 .... 6.06 .... 4.34

27 ..... 4.30 .... 5.21 .... 6.98 .. 10.03 .. 12.26 .. 15.60 .. 17.07 .. 15.42 .. 12.70 .... 9.73 .... 5.88 .... 4.08

28 ..... 4.40 .... 5.19 .... 7.19 .... 9.84 .. 12.49 .. 15.56 .. 17.28 .. 15.17 .. 13.18 .... 9.63 .... 5.57 .... 4.22

29 ..... 4.69 .... 4.43* ... 7.20 .... 9.85 .. 12.76 .. 15.95 .. 17.67 .. 15.22 .. 13.03 .... 8.73 .... 5.32 .... 4.04

30 ..... 4.28 .... xxxx .... 7.57 .. 10.39 .. 13.09 .. 15.88 .. 17.47 .. 15.47 .. 12.73 .... 9.12 .... 5.58 .... 4.23

 

31 ..... 4.56 .... xxxx .... 7.93 .... xxxx .. 13.23 .. xxxxx .. 17.15 .. 15.10 .. xxxxx .... 9.18 ....xxxx .... 4.29

 

Month . 4.45 .... 4.39 .... 6.56 .... 8.47 .. 11.66 .. 14.49 .. 16.67 .. 16.41 .. 14.04 .. 10.65 .... 7.10 .... 4.63

>> ........ JAN .... FEB .... MAR .... APR ..... MAY .... JUN .... JUL .... AUG ..... SEP .... OCT .... NOV .... DEC

 

* leap year day, 7 cases ... Feb monthly is 4.39 whether you weight leap year day or not.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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  • 1 month later...

Two new daily records to report ...

 

OCT 18 ____ 16.7 2014 ____ (16.0, 1954)

 

OCT 31 ____ 16.9 2014 ____ (14.5, 1772)

 

Previously, the latest 16.9 or higher was on 11th October of 1978.

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CET normal values for every 30-year period starting with 1661-1690 ending with 1981-2010 (and most recent 30 years bonus) ... if lines overflow, reduce screen magnification (125% or lower should work)

 

30-yr period _____ JAN __ FEB __ MAR __ APR __ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT __ NOV __ DEC__YEAR

 

(all data 1659-2014)_3.2 ___3.9 ___5.3 ___7.9 __ 11.2 __ 14.3 __ 16.0 __ 15.6 __ 13.3 ___9.7 ___6.1 ___4.1 __ 9.2

 

1661-1690 _______ 2.9 ___3.1 ___4.8 ___7.4 __ 11.0 __ 14.3 __ 15.8 __ 15.3 __ 12.8 ___9.4 ___5.7 ___3.4 __ 8.8

1671-1700________2.6 ___2.6 ___4.4 ___7.1 __ 10.7 __ 13.9 __ 15.5 __ 14.9 __ 12.3 ___9.0 ___5.3 ___3.3 __ 8.5

1681-1710________2.4 ___3.0 ___4.5 ___7.3 __ 10.8 __ 13.9 __ 15.5 __ 15.3 __ 12.6 ___9.0 ___5.6 ___4.0 __ 8.6

1691-1720________2.6 ___3.3 ___4.7 ___7.4 __ 10.7 __ 14.0 __ 15.8 __ 15.5 __ 12.9 ___9.1 ___5.8 ___3.8 __ 8.8

1701-1730________3.1 ___3.8 ___5.1 ___7.9 __ 11.3 __ 14.4 __ 15.9 __ 15.8 __ 13.6 ___9.5 ___6.4 ___4.0 __ 9.2

1711-1740________3.4 ___4.0 ___5.4 ___8.1 __ 11.2 __ 14.6 __ 16.0 __ 15.7 __ 13.8 ___9.7 ___6.2 ___4.1 __ 9.3

1721-1750________3.4 ___3.9 ___5.2 ___7.8 __ 11.4 __ 14.5 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 __ 14.0 ___9.6 ___6.3 ___4.2 __ 9.3

1731-1760________3.3 ___3.8 ___5.2 ___7.7 __ 11.2 __ 14.5 __ 16.1 __ 15.8 __ 13.8 ___9.4 ___5.8 ___4.2 __ 9.2

1741-1770________2.9 ___3.7 ___4.8 ___7.6 __ 11.2 __ 14.3 __ 16.0 __ 15.7 __ 13.6 ___9.2 ___5.7 ___3.9 __ 9.0

1751-1780________2.4 ___3.7 ___5.3 ___7.9 __ 11.2 __ 14.5 __ 16.1 __ 15.8 __ 13.4 ___9.3 ___5.6 ___3.7 __ 9.0

1761-1790________2.4 ___3.7 ___4.8 ___7.9 __ 11.5 __ 14.6 __ 16.1 __ 15.9 __ 13.3 ___9.2 ___5.5 ___3.7 __ 9.0

1771-1800________2.4 ___3.8 ___4.9 ___8.1 __ 11.4 __ 14.7 __ 16.3 __ 15.9 __ 13.3 ___9.2 ___5.5 ___3.5 __ 9.1

1781-1810________2.9 ___3.8 ___4.6 ___8.0 __ 11.5 __ 14.6 __ 16.1 __ 15.8 __ 13.2 ___9.4 ___5.3 ___3.2 __ 9.0

1791-1820________2.5 ___4.0 ___5.1 ___8.0 __ 11.2 __ 14.2 __ 15.9 __ 15.6 __ 13.1 ___9.5 ___5.5 ___3.2 __ 9.0

1801-1830________2.4 ___3.9 ___5.5 ___7.9 __ 11.4 __ 14.2 __ 15.8 __ 15.8 __ 13.1 ___9.8 ___5.9 ___3.6 __ 9.1

1811-1840________2.3 ___4.0 ___5.4 ___7.9 __ 11.4 __ 14.4 __ 15.7 __ 15.6 __ 13.0 ___9.8 ___6.1 ___4.0 __ 9.1

1821-1850________2.6 ___3.9 ___5.5 ___8.0 __ 11.6 __ 14.7 __ 15.7 __ 15.3 __ 13.0 ___9.6 ___6.3 ___4.5 __ 9.2

1831-1860________3.2 ___3.7 ___5.2 ___7.8 __ 11.2 __ 14.6 __ 15.7 __ 15.4 __ 13.0 ___9.6 ___5.8 ___4.3 __ 9.1

1841-1870________3.4 ___3.9 ___5.2 ___8.2 __ 11.2 __ 14.4 __ 15.8 __ 15.4 __ 13.2 ___9.6 ___5.7 ___4.3 __ 9.2

1851-1880________3.7 ___4.2 ___5.2 ___8.2 __ 10.8 __ 14.2 __ 15.9 __ 15.6 __ 13.2 ___9.7 ___5.3 ___4.1 __ 9.2

1861-1890________3.5 ___4.5 ___5.1 ___8.1 __ 10.9 __ 14.1 __ 15.8 __ 15.4 __ 13.2 ___9.3 ___5.7 ___3.8 __ 9.1

1871-1900________3.4 ___4.2 ___5.2 ___7.9 __ 10.7 __ 14.2 __ 15.8 __ 15.5 __ 13.1 ___9.0 ___6.1 ___3.7 __ 9.1

1881-1910________3.5 ___3.9 ___5.1 ___7.7 __ 10.9 __ 14.1 __ 15.7 __ 15.2 __ 13.1 ___9.3 ___6.3 ___4.0 __ 9.1

1891-1920________3.7 ___4.1 ___5.3 ___7.9 __ 11.3 __ 14.1 __ 15.7 __ 15.4 __ 13.1 ___9.4 ___6.2 ___4.5 __ 9.2

1901-1930________4.2 ___4.2 ___5.5 ___8.0 __ 11.3 __ 13.8 __ 15.8 __ 15.2 __ 13.1 ___9.8 ___5.8 ___4.5 __ 9.2

1911-1940________4.2 ___4.3 ___5.7 ___8.2 __ 11.5 __ 14.2 __ 15.9 __ 15.6 __ 13.3 ___9.6 ___6.2 ___4.6 __ 9.4

1921-1950________3.9 ___4.2 ___5.9 ___8.0 __ 11.3 __ 14.4 __ 16.3 __ 15.9 __ 13.6 __10.0 ___6.4 ___4.5 __ 9.5

1931-1960________3.5 ___3.9 ___5.9 ___8.1 __ 11.5 __ 14.6 __ 16.2 __ 16.0 __ 13.7 __10.1 ___6.8 ___4.7 __ 9.6

1941-1970________3.3 ___3.6 ___5.7 ___8.1 __ 11.4 __ 14.5 __ 16.0 __ 15.7 __ 13.7 __10.6 ___6.6 ___4.4 __ 9.5

1951-1980________3.6 ___3.7 ___5.6 ___8.0 __ 11.3 __ 14.3 __ 15.9 __ 15.6 __ 13.6 __10.5 ___6.6 ___4.7 __ 9.4

1961-1990________3.8 ___3.8 ___5.7 ___7.9 __ 11.2 __ 14.2 __ 16.1 __ 15.8 __ 13.6 __10.6 ___6.6 ___4.7 __ 9.5

1971-2000________4.2 ___4.2 ___6.3 ___8.1 __ 11.3 __ 14.1 __ 16.5 __ 16.2 __ 13.7 __10.4 ___6.9 ___5.1 __ 9.7

1981-2010________4.4 ___4.4 ___6.6 ___8.5 __ 11.7 __ 14.5 __ 16.7 __ 16.4 __ 14.0 __10.7 ___7.1 ___4.6 __10.0

 

1985-2014________4.4 ___4.6 ___6.6 ___8.7 __ 11.7 __ 14.4 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 __ 14.1 __10.9 ___7.1 ___4.9 __10.0

 

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  • 5 months later...

Significant record daily CET values

 

A "significant" record is defined as one that is either earliest or latest on record.  This is the list generated ...

 

RECORD MAX

 

10.8 __ 1 Jan 1851 (not valid, only appears due to calendar)

11.6 __ 3 Jan 1932

 

(9.8 on 28 Jan 1944 is lowest of year)

 

12.2 __ 3 Feb 2004

12.8 __ 4 Feb 2004

13.4 __12 Mar 1957

14.1 __18 Mar 1990

14.6 __26 Mar 1777

14.8 __27 Mar 1777

15.1 __30 Mar 2017

15.6 __ 4 Apr 1946
16.0 __11 Apr 1869
16.1 __ 14 Apr 1869
16.3 __ 15 Apr 1945
17.0 __ 16 Apr 1945

19.7 __29 Apr 1775

20.0 __15 May 1833
20.4 __19 May 1868

21.0 __25 May 1953

21.2 __29 May 1780

22.3 __ 2 June 1947

23.0 __ 3 June 1947

24.6 __ 3 July 1976 now 1 July 2015

24,7 __ 4 July 1976

 

25.2 __29 July 1948

 

24.9 __ 1 Aug 1995

24.6 __ 2 Aug 1995

24.4 __ 3 Aug 1990

23.9 __ 9 Aug 2003

23.6 __13 Aug 1911

23.0 __28 Aug 1942

22.6 __ 2 Sep 1906

22.4 __ 5 Sep 1949

21.4 __21 Sep 2006

20.2 __ 1 Oct 1985
19.8 __ 3 Oct 2011

19.0 __ 6 Oct 1921

17.8 __10 Oct 1921

17.6 __ 11 Oct 1978

16.9 __ 31 Oct 2014

15.4 __ 5 Nov 1938

14.6 __13 Nov 1938

14.4 __22 Nov 1947

13.1 __19 Dec 2015 (replaced 12.9 from 12 Dec 1994)

12.0 __29 Dec 1987

11.1 __31 Dec 1859 (not valid, only appears due to calendar)

 

RECORD MIN

 

(as there was a reading of -10.8 in December, the values in early January must be colder than that to qualify)

-11.9 __ 20 Jan 1838

 

-8.9 __25 Jan 1795

-8.8 __ 9 Feb 1816

-8.0 __15 Feb 1929

-7.3 __16 Feb 1855

-7.1 __17 Feb 1855

-6.7 __24 Feb 1947

-6.5 __13 Mar 1845

-3.7 __14 Mar 1845

-3.0 __16 Mar 1845

-2.2 __17 Mar 1845

-1.6 __21 Mar 1899

-1.3 __25 Mar 1853

-0.8 __31 Mar 1799

-0.5 __ 3 Apr 1799

-0.2 __19 Apr 1772

 0.5 __24 Apr 1908

 0.7 __29 Apr 1856

 2.6 __30 Apr 1945

 2.9 __ 8 May 1861

 3.6 __17 May 1935

 4.1 __18 May 1872

 4.6 __26 May 1821

 4.9 __30 May 1807

 6.4 __31 May 1802

 7.3 __19 June 1795

 8.7 __20 July 1836

 

(11.9 on 1 Aug 1888 is the highest value of the year)

 

 8.8 __26 Aug 1864

 7.1 __ 1 Sep 1816

 6.7 __13 Sep 1807

 6.5 __21 Sep 1872

 6.3 __22 Sep 1872

 6.0 __23 Sep 1773

 4.9 __28 Sep 1824

 3.6 __ 2 Oct 1817

 3.5 __ 7 Oct 1829

 3.3 __ 9 Oct 1852

 3.2 __12 Oct 1887

 2.2 __13 Oct 1838

 1.8 __16 Oct 1843

 1.5 __19 Oct 1813

 1.2 __21 Oct 1842

 0.9 __23 Oct 1859

 0.6 __24 Oct 1859

 0.3 __29 Oct 1895

-0.6 __ 7 Nov 1791

-1.2 __ 8 Nov 1812

-1.4 __12 Nov 1919

-2.1 __15 Nov 1965

-2.9 __16 Nov 1901

-4.2 __23 Nov 1858

-4.6 __24 Nov 1904

-4.7 __ 2 Dec 1796

-5.5 __ 6 Dec 1844

-5.7 __ 7 Dec 1879

-6.7 __11 Dec 1784

-8.5 __12 Dec 1981

-10.8 __25 Dec 1796

Edited by Roger J Smith
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  • 3 weeks later...

Major consecutive record days

____________________________

 

(Max) ____________________________________ (Min)

 

7 -- 28 June to 4 July 1976 ... this former record has been removed by 1 July 2015 breaking the previous record from 1976. This means that there are now two 3-day runs left intact and those are now shown in the table below.

 

6 -- no cases

 

5 -- no cases ________________ 27 to 31 Jan 1776

 

4 -- 27-30 July 1948 _________ no cases

......16-19 Dec 2015

 

3 -- 28-30 Sep 2011 __________ 19 to 21 Dec 2010

.......03-05 Feb 2004 __________ 01 to 03 Feb 1956

......31 Jul - 2 Aug 1995 ________23 to 25 Feb 1947

......27-29 Dec 1987 __________ 13 to 15 Feb 1929

......06-08 July 1976 __________ 23 to 25 Apr 1908

......09-11 June 1970 __________06 to 08 Feb 1895

......10-12 Mar 1957 __________ 22 to 24 May 1867

......21-23 Nov 1947 __________ 24 to 26 Aug 1864

......12-14 Nov 1938 __________ 09 to 11 Sep 1860

......23-25 Jun 1935 ___________16 to 18 Dec 1859

......12-14 Aug 1911 __________ 16 to 18 Feb 1855

......31 Aug-02 Sep 1906 _______04 to 06 Sep 1841

......25-27 Sep 1895 __________ 07 to 09 Jan 1841

......25-27 Mar 1777 __________ 30 Oct to 01 Nov 1836

......28-30 Apr 1775 __________ 01 to 03 Sep 1816

...... 28-30 Jun 1976__________ 16 to 18 Sep 1807

...... 2-4 July 1976____________ 26 to 28 Dec 1798

 

 

The cases above account for a total of 55 (edited, July 2015) of the 366 daily record maxima and 56 of the 366 daily record minima. If we then add the numerous 2-day consecutive cases, that brings us to a total of 132 of 366 maxima and 150 of 366 minima. From 1772 to 1944 there were 16 cases of 2-day consecutive record warmth (that is, only 2 not counting any of the table above) and 42 cases of 2-day consecutive record cold. From 1945 to 2014 the count was 22 and 5 so this has reversed the trend considerably.

 

The bottom line here is that many daily records are part of clusters. Here are some other notable clusters that usually add some outliers to the above data with one or two non-record days but these are quite often just tenths of a degree short of setting records as well (these are listed by total number and then the fewer missing days the higher on the list):

 

 

frequency ___ RECORD MAXIMA _____________RECORD MINIMA

 

 

11 of 13 ___ 26 June to 8 July, 1976 ________

 

 5 of 6 ____ 28 Sep to 3 Oct 2011 ________ 13 to 18 Sep 1807 (a sixth case five days before this run made 6 out of 11)

 

 5 of 8 __________________________________ 13 to 20 Mar 1845

 

 4 of 5 __________________________________ 06 to 10 Feb 1895

 

 4 of 7 __________________________________ 16 to 22 Jan 1881

.......... __________________________________ 16 to 22 Feb 1855

 

 3 of 4 ____ 31 May to 03 June 1947 _______ 02 to 05 Jun 1991

.......... ____ 15 to 18 Apr 1945 ____________ 21 to 24 Sep 1872

.......... ____ 06 to 09 Sep 1898 ___________ 15 to 18 Oct 1843

.......... ___________________________________ 05 to 08 Mar 1786

 3 of 5 ____ 04 to 08 Aug 1975 ____________03 to 07 Dec 1879

..........____ 06 to 10 Oct 1921 ____________ 30 Mar to 03 Apr 1799

 

These are mostly duplicates of cases above but add some singles, then there are about a dozen cases of two records in three days (one in between not making it) including 15-17 May 1833. Back in late Oct and early Nov 1772 there were four records in ten days but 31 Oct 2014 reduced that to three in ten. If we count all these clusters then it pretty much covers half the daily records. You can find a few cases of records about one lunation apart which I may study at some point (just to see where the significant peaks are from day 2 to day 60).

 

One other rather arcane record that I found, so far, the closest case of a record min following a record max (or vice versa) appears to be four days in 1866 (warm 26th April, cold 1st May), then seven days in June 1814 (cold 7th, warm 14th) In Apr-May 1945, the record low on 30 Apr was 12 days after one record high (however this one was broken in 2018 so we have to go back two more days to 16th April) and 9 days before another record high (since tied). Then way back in Feb-Mar 1777 a record high (2 March) came eleven days after a record low (19 Feb). Next closest was the sequence where 31 Dec of 1859 (record high) was only 13 days after a record low. Only 17 days separated cold and warm records on 15 Apr and 2 May of 1966 and also in Nov 1828 (low 11th, high 28th). A record low in Nov 1921 was 21 days after a record high in Oct. Then in winter of 2010-2011 there was an interval of 25 days between record lows in Dec 2010 and a record high in Jan 2011.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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  • 7 months later...

2015 with nine daily MAX records has the most in one year since the now eleven (and formerly twelve) of 1976. The first of the 2015 daily records, 1 July, broke a former record from 1976.

The value of 13.1 on 19th December is a new monthly record surpassing 12.9 from 12 Dec 1994.

The string of four consecutive daily records (16-19 Dec) matches the mark set from 28 to 31 July of 1948 after the record high on 1st July 2015 invalidated the previous string of seven that was set 28 June to 4 July 1976.

The monthly average of 9.7 C in December was 1.6 C higher than the previous records from 1934, 1974.

November was tied with 1818 as third warmest November (9.5 C).

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  • 4 weeks later...

New tables will be appearing this week (and next) to add some precipitation records to the historical records. The UK Met Office has several regions for its precipitation summaries and one that is called Central England overlaps the temperature grid but also covers the east Midlands and part of East Anglia. So this is not exactly the same area, but as close as we can find easily -- and the following data appear to be an average or composite from a number of locations in that region. The period of reported values on a daily scale is 1931 to the present. Monthly values extend back to 1872. These values appear to include melted equivalents of snowfall.

The first table up will be the daily averages, then some extreme high values and longest dry spells.

Average Daily Precipitation Central England 1931 to 2015 (mm)

DATE _ JAN _FEB _ MAR _APR _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _AUG _ SEP _OCT _ NOV _DEC

01 ___ 2.2 __ 1.7 __ 1.1 __ 2.1 __ 1.5 __ 1.9 __ 1.3 __ 1.6 __ 1.7 __ 1.8 __ 2.8 __ 1.8

02 ___ 1.6 __ 1.4 __ 1.3 __ 2.0 __ 1.3 __ 2.2 __ 1.6 __ 2.1 __ 1.8 __ 1.9 __ 2.6 __ 1.6

03 ___ 1.8 __ 1.7 __ 1.3 __ 2.0 __ 1.6 __ 1.7 __ 2.0 __ 1.9 __ 2.0 __ 1.9 __ 1.9 __ 2.0

04 ___ 1.9 __ 1.9 __ 1.6 __ 1.7 __ 1.2 __ 1.3 __ 1.5 __ 2.3 __ 1.6 __ 1.6 __ 1.8 __ 1.7

05 ___ 1.8 __ 1.7 __ 1.4 __ 1.4 __ 2.0 __ 1.8 __ 1.3 __ 2.3 __ 1.5 __ 1.6 __ 2.6 __ 1.8

06 ___ 2.2 __ 1.6 __ 1.8 __ 1.6 __ 1.7 __ 1.9 __ 2.1 __ 3.1 __ 1.5 __ 2.3 __ 1.8 __ 1.7

07 ___ 1.5 __ 2.1 __ 1.3 __ 1.7 __ 1.5 __ 2.3 __ 1.8 __ 2.2 __ 0.7 __ 1.4 __ 1.9 __ 2.0

08 ___ 1.9 __ 1.6 __ 1.3 __ 1.2 __ 1.5 __ 1.6 __ 1.6 __ 2.7 __ 1.5 __ 1.9 __ 2.5 __ 2.3

09 ___ 2.1 __ 2.2 __ 1.8 __ 1.9 __ 1.4 __ 1.7 __ 2.0 __ 3.1 __ 1.2 __ 2.3 __ 2.3 __ 2.0

10 ___ 2.0 __ 2.0 __ 1.1 __ 1.5 __ 1.3 __ 1.8 __ 3.1 __ 2.3 __ 1.7 __ 1.9 __ 2.0 __ 1.7

11 ___ 1.7 __ 2.0 __ 1.2 __ 1.3 __ 1.4 __ 1.6 __ 1.6 __ 2.2 __ 1.5 __ 1.3 __ 2.3 __ 1.8

12 ___ 1.7 __ 1.8 __ 1.6 __ 1.1 __ 1.5 __ 2.0 __ 1.9 __ 2.0 __ 2.0 __ 1.8 __ 1.9 __ 2.0

13 ___ 1.7 __ 1.2 __ 1.2 __ 1.1 __ 1.4 __ 2.0 __ 2.2 __ 2.2 __ 1.7 __ 1.8 __ 2.0 __ 2.1

14 ___ 1.4 __ 1.1 __ 1.7 __ 1.2 __ 2.2 __ 1.9 __ 2.1 __ 2.1 __ 2.4 __ 1.3 __ 2.4 __ 1.9

15 ___ 1.7 __ 0.8 __ 1.5 __ 1.2 __ 1.6 __ 1.5 __ 2.8 __ 1.5 __ 1.9 __ 2.1 __ 1.6 __ 1.7

16 ___ 1.6 __ 1.1 __ 1.6 __ 1.4 __ 1.5 __ 1.6 __ 2.3 __ 1.3 __ 1.7 __ 2.2 __ 2.1 __ 1.4

17 ___ 1.4 __ 1.1 __ 1.7 __ 1.3 __ 2.2 __ 1.5 __ 2.1 __ 1.8 __ 1.4 __ 2.1 __ 2.6 __ 1.4

18 ___ 1.6 __ 1.4 __ 1.4 __ 2.0 __ 1.4 __ 1.4 __ 1.9 __ 2.0 __ 1.2 __ 1.5 __ 2.9 __ 2.4

19 ___ 1.7 __ 1.3 __ 1.2 __ 1.6 __ 1.5 __ 2.2 __ 1.8 __ 2.4 __ 2.0 __ 2.6 __ 2.2 __ 1.7

20 ___ 2.1 __ 1.2 __ 1.4 __ 1.3 __ 2.2 __ 1.3 __ 1.7 __ 1.9 __ 1.8 __ 2.6 __ 2.2 __ 2.0

21 ___ 2.1 __ 1.0 __ 1.5 __ 1.2 __ 2.4 __ 1.9 __ 1.2 __ 1.8 __ 1.4 __ 2.1 __ 2.4 __ 1.5

22 ___ 1.8 __ 1.5 __ 1.3 __ 1.0 __ 1.3 __ 2.3 __ 1.6 __ 1.7 __ 2.2 __ 2.0 __ 1.7 __ 1.4

23 ___ 2.0 __ 1.2 __ 1.6 __ 1.6 __ 1.8 __ 1.6 __ 1.3 __ 2.6 __ 2.3 __ 2.0 __ 2.0 __ 1.8

24 ___ 1.5 __ 1.8 __ 1.6 __ 1.6 __ 1.4 __ 1.5 __ 1.8 __ 2.0 __ 2.6 __ 1.7 __ 2.2 __ 1.7

25 ___ 2.3 __ 1.7 __ 1.7 __ 2.1 __ 1.8 __ 1.7 __ 1.4 __ 2.7 __ 2.4 __ 2.0 __ 1.8 __ 1.4

26 ___ 1.9 __ 1.6 __ 1.5 __ 1.9 __ 2.5 __ 2.0 __ 2.2 __ 1.4 __ 1.4 __ 2.3 __ 1.6 __ 1.9

27 ___ 2.2 __ 1.9 __ 1.2 __ 1.5 __ 2.3 __ 2.0 __ 2.0 __ 1.1 __ 1.9 __ 2.2 __ 1.8 __ 1.9

28 ___ 2.0 __ 1.5 __ 1.1 __ 1.4 __ 1.7 __ 1.8 __ 2.0 __ 1.6 __ 1.8 __ 1.7 __ 1.6 __ 1.5

29 ___ 1.9 __ 1.0 __ 1.7 __ 1.9 __ 2.0 __ 1.0 __ 2.1 __ 1.8 __ 2.1 __ 1.8 __ 1.9 __ 2.1

30 ___ 2.0 __ xxx __ 1.2 __ 1.6 __ 1.4 __ 2.1 __ 2.1 __ 1.9 __ 2.1 __ 1.7 __ 1.4 __ 2.2

31 ___ 2.0 __ xxx __ 1.4 __ xxx __ 1.0 __ xxx__ 1.9 __ 1.7 __ xxx__ 2.5 __ xxx __ 2.1

Mo__ 57.1 _43.6 _ 44.4 _ 46.1 _51.8 _ 53.0 _ 58.4 _63.4 _ 53.0 _ 60.2 _62.6 _ 56.8

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Only the first month of 2016 (which wraps at the Weekend) and two Daily CET Records have already Gone

25th Jan-11.5C (Previous Warmest 11.4 in 1846)

27th Jan-11.1C (Previous Warmest 10.4 in 2003)

Edited by Weather26
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