Netweather Summer Forecast - Now Available

[AderynCoch]

Yeah highlights what I was thinking as well, around average with warm weather maybe from time to time, and like 2009 or something like that, wish I could agree with the summer similar to 1990 poster above but think the heat won't be as intense as that, after all 1990 wasn't really a typical British summer, apart from June, 2010 was.

June 2010 was more normal than July in my book.

[SP1986]

A very realistic and well thought out forecast.

At the of the day a cool, perhaps unsettled June, is a normal June, and if we are to get a traditional British summer, I think most will welcome this.

[AderynCoch]

At the of the day a cool, perhaps unsettled June, is a normal June, and if we are to get a traditional British summer, I think most will welcome this.

June is normally cooler than July and August, but I'm pretty sure it should more settled.

I would prefer a cool, wet June if it meant a warm, dry July/August, but of course that's hardly guaranteed.

[95 Degrees]

June 2010 was more normal than July in my book.

Sorry, that was not well written by me, by June I meant June 1990, which was a fair bit cooler than July and August.

[AderynCoch]

Ah right. I still wouldn't call June 1990 a normal month though - 90 hours of sunshine all month in London according to Trevor Harley. That's diabolical for June.

2010 definitely wasn't a typical summer for me. One of the dullest and wettest Julys on record here, right up there with 2007 as a miserable summer experience. To rub salt in the wounds, it was by far the worst summer month for NW/SE splits I've ever witnessed. I think I need a lie down just thinking about it.

Edited June 2, 2012 by AderynCoch

[ZONE 51]

Have just read your forecast GP.

Excellent work, very well presented and explained, and i enjoyed reading the forecast.

[syed2878]

An excelent forecast by gp, i had a quick look, guys is there pdf version of this forecast?

[Slowpoke]

Please let the end of June and July/August forecasts be right.

I'm quite confident of a warm up next week, I just hope it's a pattern change and not a blip.

Things will become much, much clearer after we get that nasty low out of the way on Saturday!

[Summer Sun]

Sadly a warm up for early July is looking unlikely now this is also reflected in the longer range outlook from GFS and the met office's outlook with the chance of above average rain for the south, we could be looking at mid July before things settle down in time for the Olympics, its not looking too good for wimbledon either which starts next week centre courts roof could be getting some use this year

[95 Degrees]

It would be good to get a warm up now really, recent history doesn't favour July/August.

[Summer Sun]

It would be good to get a warm up now really, recent history doesn't favour July/August.

We can only hope that this year is different and things pick up next month for the main UK summer holiday season

[Radiating Dendrite]

Thought I would bump this a little bit.

So what are peoples thoughts on how the forecast is going so far?

[Summer Sun]

Netweather have updated there summer forecast, the main changes are;

Summer Forecast Update - July 2012

The principal changes to the summer forecast are as follows:

• Below average temperatures and above average rainfall now favoured overall.*
  
• July to be generally average in terms of temperature above average for rainfall.*
  
• August likely to be average or a shade above average in terms of temperatures, average or slightly drier than average in terms of rainfall.*
  
• We now favour late July and August as offering the greatest potential for more settled spells of weather although temperatures are unlikely to be much above normal for any length of time.
  
• A typically average British Summer is favoured for July and August.
  

*Forecast temperature and rainfall anomalies based on 1981-2010 averages

http://www.netweathe...cast-2012;sess=

[Wilkybarkid]

Blimey - I am a netweather fan, enjoy the site and am indebted to those who run the site and those who post comments. All of whom have a meteorological knowledge that far outstretches my now 20 year old geography A level grasp of weather systems.

However this has brought me out of my slumber to post as a grumpy old man as some of it isn't a forecast, it's already fact ('above average rainfall now favoured overall')

Poor wording

Otherwise keep up the good work

[Jon Somerset]

'Normal' will do.

[Paul]

Blimey - I am a netweather fan, enjoy the site and am indebted to those who run the site and those who post comments. All of whom have a meteorological knowledge that far outstretches my now 20 year old geography A level grasp of weather systems.

However this has brought me out of my slumber to post as a grumpy old man as some of it isn't a forecast, it's already fact ('above average rainfall now favoured overall')

Poor wording

Otherwise keep up the good work

The update was put together at the end of June, before the really wet start to July

[snowfluff]

Netweather have updated there summer forecast, the main changes are;

Summer Forecast Update - July 2012

The principal changes to the summer forecast are as follows:

• Below average temperatures and above average rainfall now favoured overall.*
  
• July to be generally average in terms of temperature above average for rainfall.*
  
• August likely to be average or a shade above average in terms of temperatures, average or slightly drier than average in terms of rainfall.*
  
• We now favour late July and August as offering the greatest potential for more settled spells of weather although temperatures are unlikely to be much above normal for any length of time.
  
• A typically average British Summer is favoured for July and August.
  

*Forecast temperature and rainfall anomalies based on 1981-2010 averages

http://www.netweathe...cast-2012;sess=

Netweathers forecast issued 1st June has gone from "overall we forecast that temperatures will be close to or a little above average with rainfall to be below average"

to " below average temperatures and above average rainfall" issued in their update. The updated foercast is a complete opposite of the original forecast.

In my opinion this goes to show how difficult it must be to provide this kind of service.

[Wilkybarkid]

The update was put together at the end of June, before the really wet start to July

Ooops - I'm so behind the times, I didn't check the date of the update. I will return to my slumber and post again in another few years after hopefully some warmer summers

[UV-RAY]

Ok we are two thirds in to Summer and apart from this coming week it really has been truly awful. What I would like to ask GP is, why are Summer forecast so difficult to get right compared to your winter ones? Don't get me wrong I'm not knocking you or your methods GP I'm one of your biggest fans, but the fact remains that Summer forecasts are proving to be notoriously difficult to forecast right. I've read lots regarding teleconnections for this coming Summer, but it appears that what should be more favourable synoptics for warm weather are simply being overridden by other unforeseen forcings. Would you concur with this assessment that some other factor is playing havoc with your summer forecasting methods?

Edited July 23, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Jezzer]

Having seen the latest prospects I can see why Britain's farmers are getting concerned. The harvest could be severely affected if this is the only warm spell since late May.

Not looking good at all and all very depressing.

Just glad I'm able to enjoy this week with a couple of days off. What odds on a settled spell in September and October?