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Paul

Netweather Summer Forecast - Now Available

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Looks fantastic, a very ideal summer could be on the cards.....hopefully!

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Another brilliant piece of analysis from Stewart. Top notch.

Great layout and a fine balance achieved in the writing to explain the items we read of and discuss in the technical thread.

My annual leave begins around the last 3rd of July, fingers crossed that HP is in situe by then.

Well Done.

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Fantastic, I wonder if the things you have mentioned regarding the tropics increases the chance of an active Hurricane season, have NOAA NHC missed something here??

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Very interesting read, have learnt some new stuff from that!

BIG thanks to the Netweather team for putting that up!

Samuel :)

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Let's hope this is close to the mark this year, were over due a warm summer

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As usual a well presented and explained offering by Stewart.

If this is what we get then not bad at all.

No relentless heat but enough warmth and settled spells to enjoy the outdoors along with some refreshing rain in between to please Farmers and Growers. In fact as suggested a typically UK Summer.

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well worth the wait and i feel GP feels it could be hotter than what he is predicting. is this true or my wishful thinking GP?

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Excellent, detailed forecast. Really does help learners like me realise the many factors taken into account to help forecast possible outcomes in the months ahead.

Hopefully if warm humid air is thrown up over the UK at some point, it may give a better chance this year of seeing some decent thundery outbreaks? We will see...

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It could be Geoff.

We are likely to see a transition from a La Nina type atmospheric state towards an El Nino state. Whenever this happens, there is the potential for somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere to get lucky and stuck under a weak, but not insignificant anomalous mid latitude ridge.

As I set out in the forecast, the percentage call is for something a bit cooler and less settled than this scenario, mainly on the basis of the influence of current long range modelling which tends to take the real warmth into the Asian interior.

Obviously a forecast like this is put toghether over several weeks, but it's nice to see the CFS v2 come up with this pressure and temperature anomaly forecast on today's update, bearing a strong resemblance to the anologues..

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post-2478-0-84643500-1338565327_thumb.jp

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Fantastic in depth forecast, but one I hope goes the way of 2011 summer forecast. Sorry GP, nothing personal but heat and humidity are fine for holiday weather, during the working week it's awful. Good luck all the same.biggrin.png

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Looks great to me! Happy to loose June to cold/rain as I shall spend most of it in places where good weather is much more likely (southern Spain and Slovenia!) then settle home for some warm or hot sunshine. Well overdue a decent July and August so here's hoping the forecast goes to plan!

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Good luck with the forecast GP,very well reasoned and presented as ever.

Maybe quite a few thundery spells this summer with winds coming from between south and east?

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Well done on the forecast.

My personal opinion is for a cooler than average summer so different to yourself but i do agree the second half being better (though i think any heat will be limited to August).

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Great analysis Stewart, my thinking is very much on the lines of what you are expecting! I believe that the MJO will be the single most important factor in determining this summer ESP with a neutral ENSO state!

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Once again Stewart an awful lot of work and detective ideas-I am unable to make any comment on how I think it might end up, way beyond my time scale-so many thanks.

You will either be God or the devil come 1 September!

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Many thanks for the forecast GP and Netweather. Excellent work as usual.

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I won't wish you luck as if you get lucky I am sure that was not your intention and if it doesn't work out please don't think we don't understand the difficulty involved. So I'll hope your forecast is as close a reflection of what happens and this can add to knowledge for you and others so the whole effort becomes a science. Many thanks, will read it a few times more BTW in the next day or two.

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Excellent work once again and thanks to GP for taking the time to explain the forecast in detail. It looks like a forecast with a bit in it for everyone, the one crumb of comfort for people like me who struggle with heat is that the start of the summer looks quite cool and although high heights remain close to the North of the uk in August, the 500mb anomaly chart from the analogue summers used does not look quite as daunting as the July one and indeed with a tiny tweak, August could end up another cool showery one.

86.150.4.214.152.15.15.53.png

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Lots of work put into that, cheers GP.

Looks like a similar summer to 1990 perhaps (forgetting individual events of course) with a cool June, average/warm July and warm August? The rainfall in that summer was along the same lines too.

Interestingly the spring before had an 8.3C March like this year followed by a cool April and was also a gradually strengthening El Nino year.

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Yeah highlights what I was thinking as well, around average with warm weather maybe from time to time, and like 2009 or something like that, wish I could agree with the summer similar to 1990 poster above but think the heat won't be as intense as that, after all 1990 wasn't really a typical British summer, apart from June, 2010 was.

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Yeah highlights what I was thinking as well, around average with warm weather maybe from time to time, and like 2009 or something like that, wish I could agree with the summer similar to 1990 poster above but think the heat won't be as intense as that, after all 1990 wasn't really a typical British summer, apart from June, 2010 was.

Thats what I meant by 'ignoring individual events', i.e similar rainfall and mean temperatures for the months compared to that summer but most certainly not an individual event like the start of August 1990.

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I would gladly deal for summer like 1990.

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An excellent read.. though I have to say, I have only skim read it so far, and will need to read it properly to digest it fully.. alot of it is very technical.

It suggests a half decent summer ahead, certainly not the washout some may fear, and therefore better than the likes of 2007 and 2008, and also some decent warmth, so probably the warmest since 2006.

It does indeed suggest a very typical summer in respect of the warmest conditions being reserved for the second half of the summer, which is what you expect with our weather, but something that hasn't happened in the last 5 summers where temps have been very uniform from the start of the summer to the end with only shortlived warm/very warm and occasionally hot spells think late june/early july 2009 occuring at different stages in the summer.

Those worrying about the prospects of a cool first half to June and what this means for the rest of the summer, shouldn't, as I actually believe this is a positive signal for the summer as a whole for those wanting lengthy warm weather in July and August. The first half of June should be the coolest part of our summers. Its the same for our winters in that the first half of dec normally is the mildest part of the winter as a whole.

We have had very cool first halves to June in years gone by notably 1991 and 1995, July and August of both years brought lengthy warm weather, in the case of 1995 exceptionally warm weather.

I am quite positive about this summer, more so than the last 5, whilst I'm not expecting a 1995, 2003 or 2006 or indeed even a 1990, 1994, 2005.. I do think it will be quite good overall, more on a par with the likes of say 1991, 1999, 2004 which saw very warm dry sunny weather at times during July and August with potentially some very hefty thundery downpours agains something which has been notably absent in recent summers. Thinking further ahead, I have a feeling/hunch nothing else that this autumn is going to be a very wet one... we are long long long overdue a wet wild autumn!

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