Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[Summer Sun]

GFS remains unsettled for all of next week all areas will see rain at some point

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

UKMO

Unsettled for all its run

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

ECM unsettled for the south all next week, the north may become drier from Thursday as high pressure is shown to extend into Scotland

http://www.null/ds/ecm.htm

Summer remains on hold i'm afraid

[Summer Sun]

GFS remains unsettled for all of next week with lots of rain around for all areas including the south

[OldMetMan]

This is turning out to be quite a summer!

Looking at recent model trends, there has been a certain amount of wavering between maintaining the run of LPs across the country and building the pressure at least across the south of the country. UKMet seem to have now settled for mobilty, at least for now. It is interesting that the GFS is showing a gradual weakening of the jet so maybe the longer term trend is for some Azores HP offshoots next month.

I think the persistent upper high over much of the USA is strongly influencing the downstream flow over us, with the persistent upper trough over much of the eastern Atlantic. In the mid-term, there is some consensus for there being a slow down in the eastward moving LPs with a slow-moving LP settling over the UK and near continent - bad news in terms of the threat of even more flooding events. But certainly no sign of any real summer heat.

I think the later runs will again show some uncertainty between LP and HP development over the UK. If the slow moving LP shown over us in the mid-term starts to consolidate more, then I suspect that we will see HP building beyond that.

[Weather Boy]

This is turning out to be quite a summer!

Looking at recent model trends, there has been a certain amount of wavering between maintaining the run of LPs across the country and building the pressure at least across the south of the country. UKMet seem to have now settled for mobilty, at least for now. It is interesting that the GFS is showing a gradual weakening of the jet so maybe the longer term trend is for some Azores HP offshoots next month.

I think the persistent upper high over much of the USA is strongly influencing the downstream flow over us, with the persistent upper trough over much of the eastern Atlantic. In the mid-term, there is some consensus for there being a slow down in the eastward moving LPs with a slow-moving LP settling over the UK and near continent - bad news in terms of the threat of even more flooding events. But certainly no sign of any real summer heat.

I think the later runs will again show some uncertainty between LP and HP development over the UK. If the slow moving LP shown over us in the mid-term starts to consolidate more, then I suspect that we will see HP building beyond that.

But, oddly, the models seem agreed on a large very shallow LP dominating NW Europe for a good while. At times and on some models it's so shallow as almost to be a col. I am very uncertain as to what kind of weather this is likely to give rise to - any more experienced posters assist in that regard, including you OMM? However, I wouldn't have thought that flooding is likely to be a major concern, although I am conscious that sometimes flabby lows can give surprising and of course slow moving downpours.

I'd be interested as to what people think this kind of synoptic situation would give rise to, assuming it happens, which with good agreement it seems likely to.

[Bobby]

There seems to be little sign of things settling down with signs of a cut off low developing

NAEFS anomaly maps:

So potentially more very wet and maybe thundery weather for many, the S in particular, as ECM shows

Before that, a few breezy showery days before the next low moves in bringing more persistent rain from the West to start the new week and month

Edited June 29, 2012 by Barb-

[Frosty.]

Today's Ecm 00z offers a glimmer of hope with atlantic high pressure attempting to ridge towards the north of the uk in FI but less settled further south, the Gfs 06z shows generally unsettled cyclonic weather nationwide but at least turning warmer and more humid during next week but with a mix of sunshine and heavy showers and longer spells of rain but probably no repeat of yesterday's super cell which brought flooding and giant hail with severe thunder/lightening. If the gfs verifies, there will be large amounts of rain next week and further ahead but the ecm would bring more settled weather slowly from the northwest which would be a reverse of the usual nw/se split where the southeast is normally driest..the mainly dismal summer continues.

[Gavin P]

Here's todays Model Based 8-10 Day Friday Musing:

http://gavsweathervids.com

More Thunderstorms Next Week?

Edited June 29, 2012 by Gavin P

[OldMetMan]

But, oddly, the models seem agreed on a large very shallow LP dominating NW Europe for a good while. At times and on some models it's so shallow as almost to be a col. I am very uncertain as to what kind of weather this is likely to give rise to - any more experienced posters assist in that regard, including you OMM? However, I wouldn't have thought that flooding is likely to be a major concern, although I am conscious that sometimes flabby lows can give surprising and of course slow moving downpours.

I'd be interested as to what people think this kind of synoptic situation would give rise to, assuming it happens, which with good agreement it seems likely to.

Hi Weatherboy,

Yes, slack LP over the UK and near continent are certainly capable of either slow-moving heavy/thundery showers, plus they also tend to breed small troughs or even lows, equally slow-moving with persistent, sometimes heavy rain. One of the gloomiest setups, especially in the S and E of the country, is a light to moderate NE coming over the North Sea which can produce very dull cool weather.

But, on the up-side, they often tend to be replaced by HP building from the N or NE.

[Summer Sun]

GFS remains very unsettled next week with plenty of rain around for all parts, it could also be quite windy on Tuesday

Edited June 29, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Gavin P]

GFS and UKMO 12z have that look of big thundery showers and storms from the cut off;

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1444.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

Now, when cut off's get invoved the models have all sorts of problems, so this might not be a done deal yet, BUT as it stands this evening (still waiting for ECM of course) expect some VERY big showers, thunderstorms, lightning, hail, tornado's and flooding in the south next week

Edited June 29, 2012 by Gavin P

[john pike]

maybe better for the south for storms if the high cape stays over in france

[Frosty.]

From what I have seen of the Gfs 12z so far, it looks like more low pressure pushing in from the west early next week with more heavy showers and fairly warm humid weather, there is higher pressure over iceland and a ridge extending south towards scotland but perhaps low pressure is going to be the dominant feature for the next 7-10 days, still no realistic signal to suggest a pattern change is afoot.

[Milhouse]

At least it will be warm with central and eastern Europe looking very hot over the next week. Any continental flow will bring that warmth our way.

[Scorcher]

Yes it certainly looks warm from midweek onwards with warm uppers coming back and GFS suggesting that the mid 20s could be reached in the south again. Perhaps could end up similar to the 3 day spell we have just had.

[Summer Sun]

Darren Bett has just said that rain moving into Northern Ireland on Monday will set up another miserable week

And tonights UKMO certainly is miserable

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

[Supacell]

I cannot get any of the 12z charts for after Tuesday next week

[Summer Sun]

I cannot get any of the 12z charts for after Tuesday next week

GFS 12z in full here - http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

UKMO 12z in full here - http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

[Frosty.]

At least it will be warm with central and eastern Europe looking very hot over the next week. Any continental flow will bring that warmth our way.

At least it will be warm with central and eastern Europe looking very hot over the next week. Any continental flow will bring that warmth our way.

Yes we could be looking at a rinse and repeat of the last few days which is very bad news for the areas affected by the recent flash floods, more cyclonic weather next week with temps on the rise and increasing humidity after the relatively cooler and fresher weekend.

Edited June 29, 2012 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

Looking unsettled from ECM once more tonight for next week

ECM ends more settled but we've been here before - http://www.null/ds/ecm.htm

Edited June 29, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

ECM in FI just shows how much uncertainty there is for what will happen to next weeks low. The 12z has it sat just to the north west of the UK delivering some warm and showery conditions before it disappears off to the north and we get a strong ridge of high pressere from the Azores settling things down for everyone.

[Summer Sun]

ECM in FI just shows how much uncertainty there is for what will happen to next weeks low. The 12z has it sat just to the north west of the UK delivering some warm and showery conditions before it disappears off to the north and we get a strong ridge of high pressere from the Azores settling things down for everyone.

Yes FI looks nice but earlier in the week ECM was showing next week to be settled whilst GFS showed it to be unsettled and GFS was on the money there, so I taking ECM's FI with high caution

[ANYWEATHER]

Big difference in the gfs and ecm @168 ,of course thats a long way out, but the difference is stark! Ecm as hinted at something more settled at this time frame and even the meto hint of a possibity of something at least a little settled by next weekend....

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo hinting at somthing more settled mid month

Latest ECMWF 32 day forecast continuing to signal a potential pattern change mid-July towards something more settled... ‪

Could be ECM is picking up on something maybe a tad to early though

Edited June 29, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

The ECMWF ensemble mean keeps things unsettled tonights ECM run is leading us down the garden path again

ensemble

12z run

[phil nw.]

Matt Hugo hinting at somthing more settled mid month

Latest ECMWF 32 day forecast continuing to signal a potential pattern change mid-July towards something more settled... ‪

Could be ECM is picking up on something maybe a tad to early though

Yes ECM Op seems on on its own in building in the AH from day 7-the means on both GFS/ECM keeping a shallow Upper Trough in place over NW.Europe.

The 8-14day H500`s show no real pattern change yet

so no real change in our showery regime in the next week or so seems likely.

One difference showing is that we are less likely to import the heat off the continent next week with more of an Atlantic influence.

Temperatures on most days more around average with the warmest weather in the south east as you would expect in this setup.