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Chase Day 16 - Ks/ne/ok/ia


Arron

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Morning all! :D

Today we are playing the dryline/warm front today in NC Kansas. Heading towards Hays for some lunch and will probably sit and wait there for a few hours. Storms are expected to fire on the dryline early evening and then as they travel NNE/NE they should latch on to the warm front and ride it. The team is quietly optimistic of seeing a tornado today and SPC have a 5% bullseye risk over our area.

:D

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

This may turn into something quite spectacular as cells entrain. Caution required for potential stream overflow, keep in mind where streams originate because back portions of these supercells may contain 100-200 mm rainfalls. Fortunately most drainage in Kansas is west to east so you aren't likely to get caught if viewing from the active south side. I think you'll have tornadic development around 4-6 p.m. with a 21z energy peak rippling across the wave crest. Looks perfectly primed on satellite imagery now, just needs a bit more time and should become a powerful meso-scale stationary frontal type event. Very high humidex values likely in the warm sector with 35/22 temp/dp or higher. Transport chaos may ensue because east-west line of storms may not be far from I-70, probably just to the north.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Have to agree with Roger here - could easily turn into one of those back-door surprise events.

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl

The stream is looking very good - can see everything building up very very quickly! good.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

The stream is looking very good - can see everything building up very very quickly! good.gif

Amazing viewing, it has bulit up very quickly since I've been viewing it not too long ago. Which storm system are we looking at anyway?

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

This radar shows the cell, just south of Hays. All of that linear blue clutter is inflow cumulus in a hot, humid air mass. You can also pick out the advancing dry line.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ddc&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

There are basically three air masses meeting around this chase scene, to the north is retreating modified Pacific air with temp 25 and dew point about 15, with surface ENE winds. To the southeast is maritime tropical air with temp 30-32 and dew point 20-22. To the southwest is hot, dry cT from the desert regions, temps 35-40 and dew points (back in the main air mass over north Texas) 0-5 C.

This looks promising now.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Massive wall cloud in view, will get stream on it when we turn off the interstate

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

Amazing to see a wall cloud for the first team on the live stream. Since I've been watching you can see the energy of the storm cells and the wall cloud is the highlight so far!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Pretty sure we have pics/video of the tornado south of Hays. Now dropping back south and west to take a look at this last supercell near Alexander, KS :D The rotation on the first storm was INSANE! :D

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl

Pretty sure we have pics/video of the tornado south of Hays. Now dropping back south and west to take a look at this last supercell near Alexander, KS biggrin.png The rotation on the first storm was INSANE! biggrin.png

Nice one! Connection seems to be down on the nw stream so watching on the TVN streams, looks like the storm ESE of hays is about to drop a nado by the look of the rotation! (well that's where the GPS says it is anyway...) Might be the same one that you guys are on actually!

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl

Hope you guys are on it! GPS tracker has you near it anyway...

post-26-0-35204200-1337996855_thumb.jpg

post-26-0-21764200-1337997027_thumb.jpg

post-26-0-55886300-1337997166_thumb.jpg

post-26-0-67516200-1337997171_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

What an amazing cone tornado backlit by the sun, and an incredible rope out that seemed to last for eons! :D:D:D

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Wow what a night, we saw another 5 tornadoes and at one time had two on the ground at the same time! I managed to get a pic of them both and we got video too, one word MENTAL!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Two shots of the backlit nado, the night time ones we'll upload after food :D

post-4649-0-02807300-1338006423_thumb.jppost-4649-0-11030600-1338006469_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Location: Leicestershire

I missed the tornado above - was this the one from the middle cell? I was racing down to the tail end and could not see it due to the rainfrom my location.

However I did record the full 57 minuites of the Lacrosse Torando. I was 7 miles west of Lacrosse just about a mile away from the meso to mt West.. The tornado first touched down at 21:05 and lifted at 22:02. At one stage it was a violent stovepipe NW of Lacrosse.

I was a tad too close and had to bale East - sorry about the quality of the shot - takenen with out a tripod. However the video that I shot is stunning - i am just too tired to deal with video right now as I want to target Lusk, WY for tomorrow - 6 hours drive sad.png

post-9322-0-63301900-1338013474_thumb.jp

post-9322-0-45084700-1338013483_thumb.jp

post-9322-0-22665000-1338013490_thumb.jp

Edited by Stuart Robinson
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

That old Tour 3 magic is back! Great result for you all.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

That old Tour 3 magic is back! Great result for you all.

And more to come with at least 6 straight days of severe weather expected..

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Some early thoughts for Saturday. Dry line is retreating west to TX-NM border and into eastern CO. Strong trough is developing at all levels. Guidance shows supercell potential in the TX and OK panhandle region into far western KS. Meanwhile, two other outbreaks appear likely in IA-IL and near WY-NE border.

Would seriously suggest the TX panhandle storms for consideration, these might provide the best chase opportunities of the day. Liberal KS to Tucumcari NM would be the approximate line of convection.

Sunday also looks very good in central KS towards east central Nebraska.

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