Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[bluearmy]

And there we have it.. The north pole via the back door.. Easterlies over the uk, COLD easterlies fed from the pole via Scandinavia..driven around a Cold High near Iceland ( previously centred west of Scotland on the 00z with potentially a lot of moisture in its circulation given the fact its centred in Mid North atlantic.

NO sign of anything warmer away from the channel Islands and maybe the far SW of England..

PE - what are you talking about ??????? do you have to make an ecm fi fit your agenda? why not ignore it ? its more than likely over progressive but maybe not too far off what the eventual solution will be over a longer period. however, your comments about the surface conditions likely from those charts are odd to say the least. (plus the comments about the cold easterlies - uppers around 8 - 10c)

Edited May 15, 2012 by bluearmy

[Snowy Easterly]

no, the ECM wouldn't have us in meltdown in january, enigma, there is too much high pressure about so where would the snow come from, yes it would be cold, but not much snow, your wumming is getting boring.

Edited May 15, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Evening thunder]

And there we have it.. The north pole via the back door.. Easterlies over the uk, COLD easterlies fed from the pole via Scandinavia..driven around a Cold High near Iceland ( previously centred west of Scotland on the 00z with potentially a lot of moisture in its circulation given the fact its centred in Mid North atlantic.

NO sign of anything warmer away from the channel Islands and maybe the far SW of England..

Yes a very cold easterly, I remember on the 11th May 2008 we had a max temp of 26.3C with very similar uppers to the chart above. A pretty chilly easterly for Africa.. Back to here, a warm easterly with max temps well above average away from areas near the east coast would probably be the result from that chart (the T+216 chart even has +12 850hpa temps touching the east) On the ECM run the warm air is initially drawn up from the S/SE over eastern Europe, before being drawn west or even SW over the UK.

At my location near the south coast of Devon, if you want warm weather and glorious sunny days in May, that's close to the best chart you could get.

Of course being at T+240 this isn't that relevant yet although several runs have hinted at something similar recently. Before that temps will at least recover closer to average even if not settled (I don't mind that anyway as long as it's not too cloudy much of the time), after tonight which I would expect to be the coldest night of the month in some areas.

Edited May 15, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Uncle_Barty]

Methinks PE may well be related to Younger Dryas in the other place. Both seem to ramp up cool/cold weather in the summer half of the year almost to the point of wumming.

Model-wise... yes looking better but I am not yet convinced there will be that much of an improvement yet. The concern I have is that it is HP building in from the north. Wouldnt take much of a retrogression to bring that pesky upper trough back over or just to the east of us.

[Cloud 10]

Maybe i'm the only one who hasn't heard of the word "wumming" before today,but just in case.

Urban Dictionary: Wumming

Just a minor point about the 12z ecm that seems to have been missed,are the very unsettled conditions

it shows upto +144hrs.

[Bottesford]

As last night lets stick to the models and leaving the digs out of it.

And perhaps those of you cherry picking half the information from charts that fit your hopes/desires/agendas would at least try to be convincing by backing things up with evidence and stop winding people up by being deliberately misleading. Healthy debate yes, annoying everyone else no - some people are trying to learn and find out information from this thread.

[phil nw.]

There does look to be a change in the medium term away from these cold and unsettled conditions.

The 500hPa sypnotics modelled around the weekend show the cold upper trough finally splitting briefly allowing some warmer air into Southern districts as early as Saturday.

This looks to be a sign of things to come.

The models suggest an Easterly next week as pressure rises over Scandinavia bringing warmer air across the UK from Eastern Europe.

This setup would eventually bring temperatures above average and a lot of sunshine for many but with the usual caveat of posssible cloud/mist near the East coasts if the flow is more north of east with a subsequent longer sea track.

Although we are talking a week away maybe for real warmth the modelling of the trough splitting and warming out is now in the closer frames of the outputs so i think we have reasons to be more hopefull of some better weather to come next week.

The Americans have good confidence in their medium term modelling of this pattern in their summary this evening

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe i.e. out to Sunday its a bit of a messy set up with the trough showing slow signs of splitting but not before it deposits further rain to many places with a slow moving low pressure system becoming unstuck over the country with its attendant weather fronts. Thursday and Friday look miserable wet cold days for the northern half of the country, the extreme south may also see a wet day in Friday from a front in the channel, by Saturday the tables will be turned in Scotlands favour as the trough begins to weaken and split thanks to heights building to the north, whereas the south will see rain from a slow moving front and probably quite a stiff cool NE wind.. the weekend could turn out to be a very dissapointingly wet cloudy one for much of central and southern england.

Into next week, ECM very keen on splitting the trough and building strong heights to our north/northeast pulling in warmer uppers from the near continent but also quite a stiff NE wind. In such a set up eastern coastal parts would probably see chilly cloudy weather with the best temps and sunshine reserved for sheltered western and particularly NW parts. GFS does evolve into the ECM set up eventually. However, anyone believing this could be the start of a long protraced very warm settled sunny spell.. mmm caution very much the word, the models suggest heights will retrogress NW again and scandi trough action will develop, with heights always low to our south which will prevent heights sinking and building southwards into the country which is where we need them to end up for any strong chance of a long warm sunny spell.. Its all conjecture at this stage, but there is a long way to go yet before we can call the start of a proper warm sunny dry spell.. too many conflicting signals.

[William of Walworth]

As last night lets stick to the models and leaving the digs out of it.

And perhaps those of you cherry picking half the information from charts that fit your hopes/desires/agendas would at least try to be convincing by backing things up with evidence and stop winding people up by being deliberately misleading. Healthy debate yes, annoying everyone else no - some people are trying to learn and find out information from this thread.

Thanks for this Mr B. I never conceal my preferences (same as yours in the summer!) but I always try to be realistic about model output too, especially when less summery conditions seem likely. Writer-offers of whole months/seasons really offer nothing constrictive or helpful at such times as this! Esopecially not those who gleefully relish anti sumemr propsects and exaggerate any signal suggesting this that they can find ...

All I can see for this coming weekend on recent output is generally unsettled, not particularly warm, with sunshine at a premium, and with enough rain to make dry also a rarity, yet also not enough rain to be threatening a complete washout -- in most places.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've seen this argument re. El Nino before but I need some convincing about it, considering that 1998 and 2002 both had a strong El Nino, and those two summers had rampant westerlies, particularly during June and July of both years.

After a mostly dry bright day tomorrow with some frost during tonight and tomorrow night, there is strong agreement on rather grey drizzly weather spreading in during Thursday and Friday. The weekend looks like continuing cool, grey and drizzly in Scotland, Ireland and northern England, but the southern half of England may become brighter and warmer for a time with temperatures up into the mid teens and scattered thundery showers breaking out.

There is a consensus developing on an anticyclonic north-easterly type setting in during next week. This would mean dry sunny weather for many western areas, particularly western Scotland and northern Ireland, but most likely cool, grey and drizzly in central and eastern parts of England with a rather nippy NE wind. The extended ECMWF (post T+168) hints at an east to north-easterly type which would transfer the grey drizzly weather into eastern Scotland and north-east England and promote brighter warmer weather in southern England, but those outputs have been volatile recently and are prone to change.

[KTtom]

GFS trending towards a more unsettled and increasingly cooler 10 day period which pretty much ties into the Mets longer term forecast. Some striking similarities to Winter with a massive temperature differential between the UK and Europe. The Baltics hitting 30c whilst we struggle into double figures for the first half of next week, also worth noting that anything worthwhile regarding a significant warm up is being pushed away to the end of the run.........patience is needed ...now where have I heard that before?

[Scorcher]

GFS trending towards a more unsettled and increasingly cooler 10 day period which pretty much ties into the Mets longer term forecast. Some striking similarities to Winter with a massive temperature differential between the UK and Europe. The Baltics hitting 30c whilst we struggle into double figures for the first half of next week, also worth noting that anything worthwhile regarding a significant warm up is being pushed away to the end of the run.........patience is needed ...now where have I heard that before?

The trend is still there for something warmer on both models this morning, particularly for southern and western areas. For abundant sunshine though we may well have to be patient.

[The PIT]

No trend for anything warmer mate in reliable time frame and the trend is for continued mostly below average temps. Only a slight hint in deep FI of average temps perhaps a brief day above but this is tempered by the hint of southerly tracking jet and more rain.

So for now remaining on the cool side and a wet soggy spell of eastern areas as low pressure moves into the North sea.

[ANYWEATHER]

The trend is still there for something warmer on both models this morning, particularly for southern and western areas. For abundant sunshine though we may well have to be patient.

Really??!! The only hint of anything warm is in model fantasy output! Dire outlook for Humans and Plants in the days ahead!!

[johnholmes]

I think that a change in the upper air pattern is now pretty clearly going to occur by the month end. Below are my comments on the charts for the 10 day checks I do every 10 days.

They both continue the theme of a ridge across the the north=Scandinavia to southern Greenland/eastern n america, both also have cut off low in mid atlantic, ec shows 500 flow as s of west with gfs very slack and e in north and about west in south

Good similarities with noaa from last evening

I think its now possible to accept what the upper flow by the last few days of may is going to be a fairly slack affair although just what that will turn out to be is still a bit open

Noaa has a trough(much less pronounced than for some time) to east of uk with other 2 suggesting it to be well west of the uk

Thus the deep upper trough for so long over the UK area is being predicted to change

Edited May 16, 2012 by johnholmes

[Scorcher]

Really??!! The only hint of anything warm is in model fantasy output! Dire outlook for Humans and Plants in the days ahead!!

I did emphasise for the south initially, GFS suggesting high teens for the south for Saturday which is in the reliable time frame. As John says the trend is for a change in the upper air pattern and that's enough encouragement for me. We have been stuck with cold uppers for quite some time now so it's a start at least. If you read my post properly you would see that I said 'warmer' as opposed to 'warm'.

[bluearmy]

the flip flopping in ecm's last two op runs is evidence that how we get to a less unsettled setup remains unclear. what is good news is that the ecm ens are now consistently showing a rise in heights close enough to the uk beyond the middle of next week. whether this is centred to the northeast with the south being closer to the cut off trough (as per noaa cpc) or more of a general euro height rise which favours the south and east is still unknown. at least we will see a general rise in temps countrywide and a fair proportion of the uk will settle down. the only concern is that a rise to the northeast may retrogress quite quickly and could open us up to a scandi trough as we end the month.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm yet to be convinced that the weather will settle down in the near future to any noteworthy degree. It looks to turn slightly warmer but TBH the 0z GFS doesn't look great for settled weather.......unless you live in Lerwick. I think some slight hopecasting/clutching at straws is happening. Even the ECM run isn't that settled with rain or showers never too far away. HL blocking looks the order of the day from where I'm sat.....based on current model projections of course.

All I'm seeing ATM is a pressure rise to the N/NE followed by a quick retrogression back to Greenland/N Atlantic- hardly a pattern change and rather more a pattern adjustment. With the MJO sluggish in the phases that a lot of people don't want to see in late spring, I think it might be a tad premature to herald any significant change in the pattern that has dominated the past few weeks. The biggest change will probably be the lack of arctic sourced air so it will feel decidedly warmer.

Also I see the phrase 'patience is needed' cropping up......I seem to remember that phrase coming up in winter and look what that brought us for 80% of its entirity.

Edited May 16, 2012 by CreweCold

[Robbie Garrett]

Just having a detailed look at the long-term prospects from the CFS today...

This time next week. It shows the trough moving west as high pressure builds over Scandinavia.

Early June is looking very similar, however, a possibility of warmer temperatures, and then the Atlantic looks set to start rolling in...and then back to Square one with a northerly regime in mid June. With high pressure building mid-Atlantic.

Nearing end of June, a firm pattern change?? as high pressure starts to build over the UK, and lows deflected towards Greenland/Iceland.

But it looks short lived as the pattern looks very unclear at the moment as we enter July.

Nothing exceptional till last week of June, early July. Temperatuers max mean at 22*C for England. with 18-19*C max mean for scotland. This is generally maintained across most of the country for the 2nd week of July, with a max mean of 20-21*C. 3rd week of July, widespread temperatures with a max of 20*C in the south east max mean. Widespread temperatures of 20*C in the UK, minimum of 18*C in parts of the Highlands. 21*C in parts in the south as we enter last week of July.

First week of August, 20*C in the south east. With 15-18*C in the north and Scotland. For the 4 weeks to early September, temperatures in the south max mean at 20*C in the south east, 18-19*C widespread across the UK, except Scotland some parts showing 17*C

Does look like, late June- till Early September could be scorcher. I am trying to find if these max means are like some sort of average temperature and you could add another 5-10*C for a max temperature on to them.

[summer blizzard]

What we really need this Summer is an El Nino and Nino type of atmospheric type of circulation too to ensure that the season is less likely to be colder than average. Summer Blizzard has said in another thread that this Summers analogues would be very similar to 2003, 2004, 1992 and 1989. Analogues IMHO usually paint a very accurate picture of how a season pans out and all of those Summers were warmer than the 1961-90 average. It is looking more encouraging in the forseeable future and very impressed with the output so far, Gavin P has posted about this on the other place and I totally agree with him.

I would add that there are far too many variables for 1 analogue to play out, each month is different. With that being said, there is a strong link between summer months of 18C+ and +MEI conditions in combination with a neutral to +QBO. We have +MEI conditions but the QBO is currently very negative.

Model output today is on the whole poor.

[Summer Sun]

850mb temps to near to or just above average, nothing special but its a start!

[Alex]

I would add that there are far too many variables for 1 analogue to play out, each month is different. With that being said, there is a strong link between summer months of 18C+ and +MEI conditions in combination with a neutral to +QBO. We have +MEI conditions but the QBO is currently very negative.

Model output today is on the whole poor.

Is QBO projected to start rising any time soon SB? I suppose if it starts rising coupled with a +MEI then we may be able to look at some better prospects?

[Anthonyb]

I'm yet to be convinced that the weather will settle down in the near future to any noteworthy degree. It looks to turn slightly warmer but TBH the 0z GFS doesn't look great for settled weather.......unless you live in Lerwick. I think some slight hopecasting/clutching at straws is happening. Even the ECM run isn't that settled with rain or showers never too far away. HL blocking looks the order of the day from where I'm sat.....based on current model projections of course.

All I'm seeing ATM is a pressure rise to the N/NE followed by a quick retrogression back to Greenland/N Atlantic- hardly a pattern change and rather more a pattern adjustment. With the MJO sluggish in the phases that a lot of people don't want to see in late spring, I think it might be a tad premature to herald any significant change in the pattern that has dominated the past few weeks. The biggest change will probably be the lack of arctic sourced air so it will feel decidedly warmer.

Also I see the phrase 'patience is needed' cropping up......I seem to remember that phrase coming up in winter and look what that brought us for 80% of its entirity.

Crikey, that's a very defeated post considering its 16th May.

No one knows what kind of summer we are heading to, the charts continue to show a cool unsettled spell generally in the reliable.

But if we all go back to basics: these are models (computers) and will almost definetly change output several times as we enter FI.

I Understand your point of 'patience needed' being used on the winter thread and look what winter we had -well very poor for cold and snow lovers.

Fact is - its much easier to achieve in this country warm/very warm spells in summer than it is to achieve cold/very cold spells in winter.

Have patients yes, it's only mid may and the models are already starting to shift to a warmer outlook if unsettled, but it's a start at least.

If we are still in this pattern in mid July then I would be concerned but certainly not on Wednesday 16th May

[Summer Sun]

GFS is looking very good again tonight from mid next week with High pressure taking control in the north first before heading over all the UK

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Edited May 16, 2012 by Gavin D

[Buzzit]

I think quite a difference at +48 between the NAE and GFS based on todays 12z output (Surface pressure particularly)