Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[johnholmes]

Publuis you annoy me so much and I sure Manu others . Stop being so negative

use the ignore button-stops all the stress and makes it easier for the team

[Deluxe]

My instinct tells me this pattern can become entrenched during June, how long for is anyones guess. The MO 15-30

dayer seems to indicate that the unsettled cloudy and wet regime may well last until 29th June, with the worst of the

unsettled gloomy and wet weather in the south. There was a lot of chatter on here a short while back about a hot june

the ensembles would indicate a flow generally west or north westerly between the rain bands.

England the cold man of Europe.. 7oC in Heavy rain could see Sleet fall over higher elevations as the cold air aloft is dragged down to surface levels..

If those temps verify we would see over a 20oC drop in temps in 7 days.. Remarkable !

Sunday looks dreadful for southern areas, I get that. I will continue to state however that the temps on that GFS chart are comfortably undercooked, even under cloud and heavy rain I won't say anymore. As for the rest of June - it's anyone's guess. We could quite easily see another hot spell in mid-June - it's probably just as likely as a washout spell of weather during the same period. I'll stay optimistic thanks

[PubliusEnigma]

Something is out of kilter here. The Fax chart shows an upper warm front which one would associate with something warmer.

Yet the Met office on News 24 persist with 10's and 11's in the south on Sunday. Perhaps its down to a strong feed in off the cold North Sea.. Hartle something will have to give. Will be interesting to discuss the outcome here on Monday perhaps. It seems like Monday is gonna be dire weather wise too

with a slow moving front bringing long spells of rain and cloud. They should have left the bank holiday alone and had it last weekend..

[ANYWEATHER]

Publuis you annoy me so much and I sure Manu others . Stop being so negative

Im afraid this is Reality, and I would say the weather annoys many people and pleases people all at the same time! This is the Uk and we have the most varied and most interesting weather on the Planet.! Washout conditions for Sunday looks more and more likely especially for Southern Britain and it will be very cool, Unsettled for the forseeable future. Its a shame the weather has turned for the Jubilee as so much work as gone into the street parties etc. Negative it may well be for the Outdoor Jubillee celebrations, but the farmers and growers across the country will welcome cooler wetter conditions,for a while rather than the Scorching June sunshine for weeks on end. You cannot please everyone all at the same time!

[camiscool]

Yes ! But it's such a shame for the pagent on the thames I'm pretty sure that the farmers can wait or a couple of days!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO remains unsettled tonight

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

ECM is out to 144h at present and it remains unsettled, but it does turn slightly warmer as we leave the bank holiday weekend

[PubliusEnigma]

Im afraid this is Reality, and I would say the weather annoys many people and pleases people all at the same time! This is the Uk and we have the most varied and most interesting weather on the Planet.! Washout conditions for Sunday looks more and more likely especially for Southern Britain and it will be very cool, Unsettled for the forseeable future. Its a shame the weather has turned for the Jubilee as so much work as gone into the street parties etc. Negative it may well be for the Outdoor Jubillee celebrations, but the farmers and growers across the country will welcome cooler wetter conditions,for a while rather than the Scorching June sunshine for weeks on end. You cannot please everyone all at the same time!

An enlightiing post. We should all remain mindful that Spring often offers us the widest swings in temperatures from Mid Twenties dropping to temps colder than they were Christmas Day !!. The continued poor weather is not great for Barbecue sellers. I was talking to one last week who is relying on a heatwave this weekend to save his business. Sadly the news is not looking good. Depending on the track of the lows next week, some places could end up with flooding, which will not do the farmers any favours, after a hot march, followed by a couple of months of poor weather, a week of hot weather and now a return to an extended dull and wet spell. The fax charts show the 564 dam line so close over the weekend. If Eastern France were celebrating the Jubilee they would be enjoying lovely warm even hot sunny weather

[Summer Sun]

ECM brings some fairly deep lows acoss the Atlantic next week

All FI though so ample down for downgrades to occur

[Frank Trough]

Something is out of kilter here. The Fax chart shows an upper warm front which one would associate with something warmer.

Yet the Met office on News 24 persist with 10's and 11's in the south on Sunday. Perhaps its down to a strong feed in off the cold North Sea.. Hartle something will have to give. Will be interesting to discuss the outcome here on Monday perhaps. It seems like Monday is gonna be dire weather wise too

with a slow moving front bringing long spells of rain and cloud. They should have left the bank holiday alone and had it last weekend..

surely it was awful wasn't it? you said the whole of summer was a write off in the middle of May , much like you are now for june. Will be interesting to discuss with you how things have panned out at the end of June. If you were a betting man you would be skint.

Pubic enigmas greatest hits, featuring: "the pattern is locked in for months", "the trough will only go in one direction - south west", "there could be alot of rain around in the southeast - one keep an eye on" - the B-side of which was "actually there 10 days of blue skies".

just jesting!

I'm not sure all that much is set in stone beyond the early part of bank holiday weekend (which will be fairly awful). I'm not sure it will be as bad as is being made out (although i'm on holiday so that might jinx it)!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Why do we need such inflammatory posts on here. I log on looking to glean a quick snapshot of what the various models are showing and all I see is personal attacks. For the record, PE is not in the wrong here. When certain forum members post a chart at 200+ hrs which shows high pressure it has about 6 rep points whereas as soon as someone dares mention the word 'cool' or 'rain' it's greeted by animosity. PE does go over the top sometimes but TBH he's just reading the charts as he sees them and I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the charts look UNSETTLED and under any RAIN it will be COOL; especially compared to the last week.

The GFS looks a little less unsettled early next week than it did on its 6z run and both the ECM and GFS show that the weather should at least be warm and unsettled once we get past this extended weekend. The UKMO is unsettled throughout.

[UV-RAY]

Publuis you annoy me so much and I sure Manu others . Stop being so negative

I'm afraid all the hope casting and best wishes in the world won't change the outcome. PE analysis of the coming Jubilee weekend, looks about right at this moment in time. Also the ECM 32 dayer doesn't make great reading if it's sun and heat you seek.

[Summer Sun]

Before people get in the dumps about how the models are looking we all need to remember what happened towards the end of this month (May) at one point the models and the met office were not forecasting any heat on the scale we got then within a few runs from no where GFS changed things and it became clear that some settled weather was coming our way, this was reflected in the met offices outlook on the 17th.

So what I would say is dispite the models looking unsettled they can throw changes at anytime as they have done before, yes we know the bank holiday will be a cool one but sadly its what we have become use to in the UK now. If it had not been for the Queen then last weekend would have delivered a sunning bank holiday but it wasn't to be this year

No one can write of summer as frankly no one knows what will happen, It may well be the case that June starts unsettled (which it looks like doing) before it turns better for the second half, with July giving the pick of the summer heat before August turns less settled once more, only time will tell what summer brings.

[Methuselah]

I've just deleted a load of posts which contributed nothing to the topic supposedly being discussed...

If you want to discuss the Jubilee there's a thread for it...

If you want to slag-off other posters, don't bother!

Thank you all...Keep it polite, please??

[bluearmy]

England the cold man of Europe.. 7oC in Heavy rain could see Sleet fall over higher elevations as the cold air aloft is dragged down to surface levels..

looking at the gfs 12z run, the 0c isotherm is around 1300mts at the northern most extent of the rainfall across the north midlands. it wont sleet (unless you are in plane)

given the close proximity of the 564 dam thickness to our se, we should be expecting some high rainfall totals in places. i'm not prepared to write off too much of june at this juncture. even what looks like poor sypnotic charts for next week will not give countrywide dire surface conditions. the trough could well be lifting out nw in a week or so. too early to be overly despondent about june's prospects beyond week 1.

[Bottesford]

Seconded - *on* topic please and no more personal digs.

I'm just as despairing about this horrid weather as most of you are but lets keep our cool ok!

[Mapantz]

I see two thirds of June being what i consider below par for this time of year, and then settling down in the last 10 days or so.

It's going to be interesting how the models deal with the Beryl remnants in the coming days. ECM shows it being absorbed in to a stationary low out in the Atlantic and then splitting again as it trundles towards us. I'm sure it'll go a bit manic at times ..

If it does push far enough east over the UK, it could well produce a few spin-off lows bringing plenty of rain to some areas. I wouldn't quite think a long the lines of April just gone, but it certainly could be a very wet month for some folk, going by a few of the outputs.

[andy100]

ECM brings some fairly deep lows acoss the Atlantic next week

All FI though so ample down for downgrades to occur

Excellent, atleast it wont be High pressure.

[damianslaw]

The three main models i.e. GFS, ECM and UKMO are remarkably commensurate with one another this evening, all showing the trough edging into the country as we head through the first week of the month, but with litle oomph in the jetstream, it is going to be a sluggish affair and therefore likely to take residence over the country.

Its a cool and for some places wet outlook, but there is every chance the trough could become unstuck and forced to lift out to the NW as we see heights building to the SE. Much will depend on the behaviour of the jetstream and how this interacts with the azores high and more importantly heights to the NW.

Its an uncertain outlook, though there are no strong signals yet to suggest the quick return of recent conditions anytime soon. Remember we need the rain...

[johnholmes]

Is it not a sad reflection on some folk that two the the team members have had to make comment about posts this evening?

For gawds sake its the weather not your life that is being chatted about-some of you make me despair.

Earlier I did suggest you use the ignore button or, if you really feel wound up about someone, hit the complain button and ask a team member to look at the post.

Please note I am NOT a member of the team but do care how this web site looks to the visitors we get.

Edited May 31, 2012 by johnholmes

[William of Walworth]

Seconded - *on* topic please and no more personal digs.

I'm just as despairing about this horrid weather as most of you are but lets keep our cool ok!

Bolded bit : there's one particular category of post (rather than understandably frustrated reactions to that type) that could be blocked/stopped/suspended/disciplined/warned aganst to achieve a much better level of on-topicness.

That is, a deliberately selective very-worst-case interpretation of the bits of the output that 'operational pessimists' are finding 'convenient' to choose to highlight -- at the expense of any other possibilities.

Bad meteorology at the very least.

Edited May 31, 2012 by William of Walworth

[Bottesford]

Did we now make it clear? Enough of the off topic stuff now!

If you have a comment on how the thread is run please contact a member of the team. If you don't like a certain poster's posts - hit the ignore button.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion and of course some will be biased to their preferences but so long as we are talking about the models then that is ok. Attempts to deliberately mislead people will of course be dealt with and for that we encourage the use of the report button. Every report is read and acted on as the team see fit.

Now please back on topic.