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A Winter's Tale

Colder Spell Discussion

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are you showing the photo that has 14cm on it?

No. The 14 cm was on grass, the ground depth varied between 5-10cm and grass depth 7-14cm.

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5cm yes 10cm seems a touch too high with the kerbs showing so clearly?

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It's so difficult to forcast where snow is going to fall in these setups, and at exactly what hight above sea level.

Also at lower levels evaporative cooling takes place, which is almost impossible to forcast. I think the MET do a very good job, and give an above sea level hight as to where they expect snow to fall above that level. They do usualy express "around" the level they give.

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What a turn around! We've seen the best of Spring warmth then the next week we see the true winter edge of Spring - both equally marvelous but to have both within two weeks! This is definitley part of the reason why Spring is great, generally quieter and nicer weather but certainly very interesting. I do hope that beyond this spell of extremes we'll return to more seasonal and sunnier conditions and getting warmer as we head into May.

I see that the Met Office have issued weather warnings so I assume the last time we had snow warnings in April was in 2008 - that was the last time I saw April snowfall. I've never seen lying snow in April and it would be really good if this year could produce a special Spring snow event - alongside a very special settled and warm spell, this Spring does have the ingredients to be very good as long as the rest of it proves to be generally enjoyable and pleasing and interesting.

For some parts, if this event does end up producing, some parts could have seen their better warmth than the entirety of summer 2011 and better snow than the enirety of winter 2011/2012 within two weeks. Somehow, I severly doubt that there will be lying snow below 200m but just to see April snowfall is as pleasing as getting lying snow in winter.

This Spring is turning out to be one to really look back on - all we need next is some more BBQ and tennis weather!

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5cm yes 10cm seems a touch too high with the kerbs showing so clearly?

The average snow depth was 7cm on the ground, perhaps the wetness of the snow hindered any accumulation on slanted surfaces.

post-8968-0-44533500-1333312521_thumb.pn

..................................

On another note the BBC forecasts have updated, snow fest!

post-8968-0-62676600-1333312698_thumb.pn

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Only for LS16 though. Lower areas of the city away from the north west probably won't fare as well.

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The average snow depth was 7cm on the ground, perhaps the wetness of the snow hindered any accumulation on slanted surfaces.

post-8968-0-44533500-1333312521_thumb.pn

..................................

On another note the BBC forecasts have updated, snow fest!

post-8968-0-62676600-1333312698_thumb.pn

And yet they have downgraded for me!!! not one flake showing.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ol3

Yet the met office one isnt too bad.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=fiveDay

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They are not rushing themselves to update the NAE tonight over on weatheronline, anyone know if there is anywhere else you can find it?

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Predicting where and how much snow may fall from any event is always a tricky business even more so when conditions are very marginal for low level snow such as we will be seeing on Tuesday.

The key factor in these set ups is the rate of precipitation, the heavier the better as it will cause significant evaporative cooling thanks to the very cold uppers. Dewpoints will also be very conducive for low level snow thanks to the cold arctic source.

I'm expecting many parts of northern,eastern,central and SE Scotland away from the coast to see at least a temporary cover of wet snow, places above 200m should easily see a cover, with the highlands and grampians receiving quite a hefty fall.

NE England and Yorkshire will probably see the heaviest precipitation so the risk of snow down to lower levels will be greater here than to the west of the Pennines.

Wednesday looks a fruitful day for sig convection thanks to the long draw NE wind - mind the N Sea is at its coldest right now which will inhibit convection somwhat but the added strength of the sun at this time of year should do the trick, many coastal parts of the east could be in for some very heavy sleet and wet snow showers - these giving a covering to inland parts esp with a bit of height, and some of these showers could easily penetrate well inland.

I remember back to the 4th March when the forecasts were showing a very similiar marginal set up - with cold uppers digging down behind the cold front that moved across the country - it was only in the 11th hour it became clear snow would fall down to very low levels with many places struggling to reach maxima of 1-2 degrees, we actually have colder uppers forecast on this occasion, temps will fall dramatically under any precipitation.

Someone posted the sun at this time of year is too strong to maintain snow cover on high ground, it depends on the depth of snow, I've seen many a heavy snowfall linger on the higher lakeland tops during April and into May, temps at 2500 ft in arctic air during April are bone chilling every bit as cold as mid winter.. with sub zero conditions ruling the roost, the sun has no influence in such conditions.

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They are not rushing themselves to update the NAE tonight over on weatheronline, anyone know if there is anywhere else you can find it?

Because we are in BST, everything updates an hour later so it will now be nearer 11pm when the NAE is out I think.

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Because we are in BST, everything updates an hour later so it will now be nearer 11pm when the NAE is out I think.

Of course!!! i forgot about that, thanks for the reply, it should be starting to come out shortly then.

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Met Office warning does sound encouraging for snow even to the coasts..

Rain on Monday morning will turn increasingly to snow from the north through the day and into the night, giving accumulations of 5-10 cm in places, especially on hills, though only 2 to 5 cm at lower levels, and only patchy cover near coasts. As the snow clears south during Tuesday morning, roads are likely to turn icy. The public are advised to be aware of the risk of disruption to transport.

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The last time it snowed in London, it was not even in the forecast till 1 hour ahead... I think that caught even the met office by surprise, and we got heavy snow for 7-8hrs....towards the end of the rush hour period.

Sit on the fence time, and don't expect... you might be smiling!!

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Looks like the heavy band will miss me to the east but for areas of the pennines just to the south west and west of Sheffield it looks like it could be a rasper!

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