Winter 2011/2012 - Where Does It Rank And What Have We Learned From It?

[A Winter's Tale]

Well that's almost another winter over folks and it seems that our run of Severe Cold Snap and Below Average Winter's has ended but for some in the NW and in parts of England and Wales have seen a continuation of winters better than "the christmas pudding" of pre 2008. However for some in Ireland and Eastern Scotland the winter could arguably been defined as worse than the likes of the dreaded 2006/2007 or 1990s.

All of us except Ireland and perhaps a few other areas have seen a decent quantity of cold weather and frost whether it was December 2011 in the NW (which at times brought back memories of the past two winters) or Early February elsewhere. However you also can't deny that everyone went through periods without seeing snow: For some areas in England there was no snow until February whereas where I am there was little notable snowfall after a cracking December but still nonetheless January and February combined would probably be on the same level as a winter month in 2006 or 2007. You also can't deny that despite areas seeing periods of highlights of cold and snowy weather, there were periods where both were missing in an incredibly mild period between December 19th and January 13th. However, still in this period there was interesting weather (some nice days but unfortuantly cancelled out by more abundant cloudy and wet weather) but most notably the early January storms - such as the 4th in the North which saw incredible distruption.

So, with the winter 2011/2012 I'd say that for here it was a decent winter but far from spectacular. December 2011 was a fantastic winter month here with two notable spells of lovely cold and snowy weather - both resulting in plenty of consecutive days of decent lying snow (compared to 2007 where a cm of lying snow for one day during 3 months was impossible whilst the first 20 days of this winter saw around 8 days of 5cm lying snow). December was also close to below average here in Scotland aswell so all in all it was a great month here. A better start than 2008/09 too which was seen as amazing back then with a cm or two of icy snow in early December. The stormy and mixed weather was also very interesting that month. Unfortunatly we had a very mild Christmas period which raised the Scotland mean closer to average but it didn't really bother me as I was enjoying the Christmas Joy.

So after a winter month that was close to beating February 2009 that was "the month" that brought my first decent lying in years - we were off to a great start, but the first 13 days of January was a trip back to 2007. Very mild and very wet which was disapointing as I was wanting to continue this winter's head start over 08/09 (a winter that didn't see the type of snow of Dec 2011 until February but saw regular dustings during the winter). However, an incredible storm occured in early January that was truly amazing to experience. Some interesting weather in what wasn't a great period for cold and snow but felt better considering I had got the job done a month earlier. The second half of January was far better - it saw some snow to make a more satisfactory month on that front but most notably it saw another lovely side to winter, crisp, cold winter sunshine with the high pressure around mid month and the easterly at the end. Like December, this was a side to winter weather that was rare to find in some of the winters since 2002 and it was lovely to see. Sunshine and frost was a complete contrast to mild and stormy - all during the same month.

February started off very cold for England and Wales and two snow events there saved the winter which was good to see that in some areas the winter hadn't failed - in some aspects you could say it had exceeded). A very cold start and temperatures recorded below -10C in a few areas aswell, but despite the cold - like February 2009 here in Glasgow - most areas had to rely on the Atlantic meeting the cold air to bring the snow. Also, despite the very cold start, the UK did miss out on the real fun and games of a cold spell more comparable to the past 3 winters. Nonetheless there were elements of those past freezes and the building blocks were there. The rest of the month saw snow fall further north but really up here, snow wise February was the poorest winter but similar to January in which there were periods when cold was dominant or not. Infact, towards the end of the month things warmed up to bring some very mild weather.

All in all, here in Glasgow, the winter was success considering the great December (the first 20 days alone made it better than many other winters) and the fact that snow fell in January and February (avoiding snowless months of the past) and most notably we expereinced notable cold (-7C - impossible to find in some winters that I've seen) and lasting for weeks (another rare things in some years prior to 2009). When you add these all together winter was a success and I got and went above my initial target set for any winter. So here we continue the good form but the only disapointments was that we didn't have proper lying snow in January and there were long periods of mildness. So the winter was quite unbalanced at times. Another disapointment was that the winter started off great but it's form kind of got worse interms of snow so that was a disapointment considering the big month in February. But I can remain thankful that again this winter wasn't a "06/07". Other weren't so lucky but I believe that all of us could take some hope that this winter did have another big cold spell in Europe except we missed out on the "real stuff". The winter was similar to 08/09 except for it's long mild periods and lack of regular snow inbetween.

Now, that's an analysis on what it was like here and how it compares to others and as I know for everyone else it would be different so please feel free to add your thoughts on what winter was like for you.

However, I'm more interested in the more advanced analysis on this winter on synoptically what it was like, how the supposed factors influenced it, GP's techniques and factors that made for the most succesful official winter forecast this year, how the weather of 2011 influcned the winter, what we've learned and how those who did a winter forecast this year will consider and put into their winter forecast for next year.

I'm going to get some information, stats and data and then come back to post it but it would be great if someone could get in there first and do a disection on what we've learned from this winter and how we'll use this knew understanding to how the weather of the year influences and how accurate factors are....and how we're going to tackle next winter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

not such a bad winter, typical really from the 2000+ era, 1 lot of decent snow Feb 4th, but came too late in season, as almost a full thaw by end of the 5th, the best month Dec only delivered for Scotland, 4 decent days in Jan, 13th-16th, 4 days of frost under a high,

[Costa Del Fal]

not such a bad winter, typical really from the 2000+ era, 1 lot of decent snow Feb 4th, but came too late in season, as almost a full thaw by end of the 5th, the best month Dec only delivered for Scotland, 4 decent days in Jan, 13th-16th, 4 days of frost under a high,

Feb 4th wasnt too late in the season at all. It was just unfortunate milder air was following. Thats the nature of a battleground scenario. Often the fall of snow is great but the thaw can be quick if milder air wins out which of course it will eventually.

[Aaron]

One word: boring.

[Alex95]

Joint worst ever for snow with 06/07 here, with just 2 days of falling + lying snow, 2cm and 2.5cm on the 16th Dec and 4th Feb respectably. I must admit early February was cold, but that just led to a load of ice. The snow on the 4th lasted into the 5th so I technically had 3 days of lying snow. Compare that to 09/10 and 10/11 when I had about 20-30 days (I don't have the exact figures on hand) and a maximum depth of 28cm in Jan 10, 40cm in Nov 10, and 38cm in Dec 10. I can't remember the last January which had no snow whatsoever!

Its been quite a boring one too after the severe gale in early December which blew half the shed roof off, and very little interest in the models other than the failed easterly in early February.

Rating = 1/10.

Edited February 25, 2012 by Alza 2

[A Winter's Tale]

Let's have a look at how the weather of 2011 may have influenced the winter:

January:

The first half of January saw the weather gradually revert to a more ‘normal’ Atlantic type — milder with some rain at times, especially across southern parts. However, the cold air was reluctant to loosen its grip across the northern half of the UK, temperatures there remaining lower with snow and ice at times. A very mild, wet and windy interlude followed around mid-month. The rest of the month was more settled, with high pressure nearby, but it was often cloudy and cold again at times.

Mean temperatures for the month as a whole were somewhat below the 1971–2000 average, especially over Northern Ireland and other western areas. Rainfall was close to or somewhat below normal in most places, but well above normal in south-east England and well below in Northern Ireland. It was a rather dull month across parts of East Anglia and south-east England but sunnier than normal towards the west and north, with Northern Ireland enjoying one of its sunniest Januarys on record.

A maximum temperature of 14.5 °C was recorded at Pershore College (Worcestershire) on 13th. A minimum temperature of –13.0 °C was recorded at Altnaharra (Highland) on 8th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 on 16th, 106.8 mm of rainfall was measured at Brothers Water, near Patterdale (Cumbria). At Floors Castle (Scottish Borders), 22 cm of lying snow was reported at the start of the month. A wind gust of 76 mph was recorded overnight 15th/16th at Capel Curig (Conwy).

January. Cold and unsettled with snow until the 16th, then mostly anticylonic. It was mild in the south from the 12th-16th, but generally cold, meaning that overall the month was somewhat cooller than average. Temperatures ranged from 14.5C at Pershore (Worcs.) on the 13th to -13.0C at Altnaharra on the 7-8th. The lowest maximum was -3.9C at Strathallan (Perthshire) on the 7th. It was slightly drier than average, with 88% (83 mm) of the England and Wales average. It was quite a dry month in Northern Ireland, ranging from 351 mm at Inveruglas (Dunbartonshire) to just 15 mm at Dishforth (North Yorkshire). Sunshine was about average, although sunshine was well above average in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Cornwall was the sunniest place to be.

February:

‘westerly’ weather type prevailed for most of the month, bringing plenty of cloud and bands of rain or showers at times. There were some strong winds in the first week, especially across northern areas. Temperatures were generally near or above normal throughout and there were few frosts.

The UK mean temperature for the month was about 2.0 °C above the 1971–2000 average, and it was particularly mild in central England. It was the mildest February since 2002 and the ninth mildest in the last 100 years. The number of air frosts was the fourth lowest in February in the last 50 years. Rainfall was close to normal in southern England and Wales, and northern Scotland, but it was wetter than normal elsewhere. It was particularly wet in parts of northern England and southern Scotland, where it was one of the wettest Februarys in the last 100 years. It was a little sunnier than normal in north-west Scotland and Northern Ireland but a relatively dull month elsewhere especially across East Anglia and south-east England, where it was one of the dullest Februarys on record.

A maximum temperature of 16.0 °C was recorded at Edenbridge (Kent) on 24th. A minimum temperature of -6.8 °C was recorded at Balmoral (Aberdeenshire) on 11th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 on the 5th, 143.2 mm of rainfall was measured at Honister Pass (Cumbria). A snow depth of 10 cm was recorded at Copley (County Durham) at 0900 on the 19th. A wind gust of 93 mph was recorded at Lerwick (Shetland) early on the 4th, with gusts of over 130 mph on the summits of the Scottish mountains.

February. Generally mild but dull. It was the mildest February since 2002. The highest maximum was 15.5C at Writtle (Essex) on the 25th, the lowest minimum -6.5C at Altnaharra on the morning of the 11th. It was wetter than average, with 84 mm average across England and Wales (132%). It was very wet in Scotland (116 mm, 183%). It was wetter in the west and drier in the southeast. Average England and Wales sunshine was 50 hours, just 65% of the mean; it was sunnier in the north, duller in the southeast.

March:

Much of the month brought settled weather to the UK, though it was more unsettled during the period 7th to 15th in the north (with disruption caused by snowy conditions across many parts of Scotland), and again more widely over the last two or three days of the month. Rainfall amounts were notably low over large parts of England, with a number of stations totalling less than 5 mm for the whole month.

The UK mean temperature for the month was 0.6 °C above the 1971-2000 average, and it was particularly mild in the second half with some fine spring weather. Maximum temperatures were well above average. However, there were some cold nights, and the number of air frosts was close to normal for March. Rainfall was close to or just above normal over eastern and southern Scotland, but it was dry elsewhere, exceptionally so over much of central and eastern England where less than 20% of normal was recorded. Provisionally, East Anglia had its second driest March in a series since 1910; only 1929 was drier. It was also sunnier than normal across most of the UK, especially Wales (fifth sunniest March in a series since 1929), but over Scotland sunshine amounts were closer to normal.

A maximum temperature of 20.0 °C was recorded at Saunton Sands (Devon) on 25th. A minimum temperature of -7.5 °C was recorded at Braemar (Aberdeenshire) on the morning of 18th, and -7.2 °C was recorded at South Newington (Oxfordshire) early on 8th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 on 31st, 55.0 mm of rainfall was measured at Black Sail, Ennerdale (Cumbria). Snow-depths of 29 cm were recorded at Aviemore (Inverness-shire) and at Balmoral (Aberdeenshire) at 0900 on 13th. A wind gust of 77 mph was recorded at Loftus (North Yorkshire) on 31st.

March. Very dry, quite sunny. Largely anticyclonic, cool beginning, unsettled end. The third week was quite warm; the temperature reached 19.6C at Chivenor (Devon) on the 25th. Some warm days and cold nights, as is common with anticyclones in the less cold months. Overall a little warmer than average, but it was warmer than average in the east and southeast, but cooler than average elsewhere. The lowest temperature of the month was -7.5C at Braemar on the morning of the 18th. At Dalwhinnie the maximum on the 12th was just -0.5C. Sunshine in E&W was 134% of the average, with 152 hours; Weymouth saw 199 hours. It was the dryness that was most noteworthy, qith an average of 26mm, 35% of the 1971-2000 average, making it the 10th driest of the last century, and the driest since 1990. Cambridge was the driest place of all, with just 2 mm of rain; there was a drought of 31 days there ending on 20 March.

April:

With areas of high pressure over or near to the UK for much of the month, there was plenty of fine, warm weather. The UK mean temperature was 3.7 °C above the 1971–2000 average and it was the warmest April in the series from 1910, being 0.5 °C warmer than April 2007 which is now ranked second. In central England, it was the warmest April for over 350 years. The daily maximum temperatures in particular were well above average, by as much as 6 °C in south-east England. Rainfall was close to or above normal over much of western Scotland, but elsewhere it was dry — exceptionally so over much of southern, central and eastern England where less than 10% of normal rainfall was recorded; it was the second successive very dry month in these areas. Provisionally, it was the 6th driest April over England in a series from 1910, and in East Anglia only April 2007 was drier. It was a sunny month across all of the UK, with amounts generally close to 150% of normal, making it the sunniest April in the series from 1929.

A maximum temperature of 27.8 °C was recorded at Wisley, Surrey on 23rd. A minimum temperature of –5.4 °C was recorded at Tulloch Bridge, Highland early on 26th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 on 6th, 80.7 mm of rainfall was recorded at Achnagart, Highland. In marked contrast, some places across the eastern half of England recorded less than 1 mm of rain in the whole month. A wind gust of 71 mph was recorded at Blackford Hill, Edinburgh on 2nd.

The warmest April on record. The month was also very dry and sunny. The average England and Wales rainfall was just 13 mm (21% of average, making ti the driest since 2007 and the 6th driest in the last 100 years). It was drier than average in most places apart from parts of Cumbria and West Scotland; Moulton Park (Northants) had just 1 mm of rain all month. Amazingly, the temperature easily beat the remarkable April of 2007 (the warmest since 1865). It was particularly warm in the southeast, but significantly cooler at times on parts of the east coasts of England and Scotland, troubled by winds off the sea and fog and haar. The England and Wales average sunshine was 234 hours, (150% of 70-00 mean), making it the sunniest April again since 2011, with only three sunnier months in the last 100 years. Chichester saw 270 hours of sunshine. After a cool first few days, the weather became very warm and sunny in the south and east. Temperatures above 21C were widespread on Wednesday 6th, with 23.9C at Santon Downham (Suffolk), 23.7C at the Olympic Site and 23.6C recorded at St James Park, London. Nearly as high temperatures continued for a few days. The next week was quite warm too, with highs around 21, reaching 22.8C at Aboyne on the 11th. Continuing warm, with a very warm third week, particularly in the south and east. 26.3C recorded in St James Park on the 21st. The best Easter (late, Easter falling on 24 April) since at least 1984. 27.8C at Wisley on the 23rd, the hottest April day since 1949 and the highest temperature of the month. The temperature fell back a bit on Easter Sunday, the 24th, with the Solent area the hottest at 25.3C. The lowest temperature of the month was -5.4C at Lochaber, Tulloch Bridge, on the 26th; the warmest night was that of the 22nd-23rd with a minimum of 14.8C at Wych Cross, Sussex. I think I would now make this month my most interesting April on record.

May:

With areas of low pressure to the north or west of the UK for much of the month, the weather was often cloudy and at times windy. There was also copious rainfall over north–western areas, although very little reached the south–east. The UK mean temperature was 1.0 °C above the 1971–2000 average. It was a very wet month across western and northern Scotland, with well over 200% of the average recorded. In sharp contrast, it was very dry over much of East Anglia and south–east England where less than 30% of normal rainfall was recorded; the third successive very dry month in these areas. In series from 1910, it was the wettest May on record in Scotland but among the driest on record in Essex and Kent. It was a rather dull month across western areas, but sunshine amounts were somewhat above normal over eastern England and eastern Scotland.

A maximum temperature of 25.4 °C was recorded at Weybourne (Norfolk) on the 7th. A minimum temperature of -6.3 °C was recorded at Altnaharra (Highland) early on 4th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 on the 22nd, 92.4 mm of rainfall was recorded at Alltdearg House, near Sligachan, Isle of Skye. In marked contrast, a few places in Kent and East Anglia recorded only about 10 mm of rain in the whole month. A wind gust of 84 m.p.h. was recorded at Blackford Hill, Edinburgh on the 23rd.

May. Wet in the north and west and very dry in the southeast. The fourth most southwesterly month in well over a hundred years of records. Although it was warmer than average by 1.1C or so, in parts of the south and east April was warmer than May. The highest temperature of the month was 25.4C at Weybourne on the 7th, the lowest -6.3C at Altnaharra on the 4th. Rainfall averaged over England and Wales was 49 mm, 80% of the 71-00 average. It was very wet in Scotland (187mm). Cluanie in Wester Ross had 468 mm, Manston (Kent) just 4 mm.It was slightly sunnier than average (107%); Manston again saw 273 hours. There was a destructive and unusually late gale across from eastern and central Scotland to northern England on Monday 23 May. Trees were particularly affected because they were largely in full leave. The Forth Bridge was closed, there were widespread power cuts, and two people died. A gust of 81 mph was recorded at Inverbervie in NE Scotland, although gusts over 100 were reported at some exposed mountainous sites. This was the worst May gale since 1962.

June:

The month began on a fine, warm note, but the weather gradually became more unsettled, with showers and some longer spells of rain. These eased the very dry conditions across parts of eastern England. A short-lived warm spell in the last week gave the highest temperatures of 2011. Temperatures overall were close to the 1971-2000 average, although somewhat above in East Anglia and other eastern counties of England and somewhat below in Northern Ireland and western Scotland. It was the coolest June across the UK since 2001. The monthly rainfall pattern reflects the showery nature of the month. Parts of southern England, south Wales, Northern Ireland and southern and eastern Scotland were wetter than normal. In contrast, some parts of the Midlands had a relatively dry month. Sunshine totals overall were close to normal, varying from a little below in most of Scotland to above normal from west Wales across to eastern England.

A maximum temperature of 33.1 °C was recorded at Gravesend (Kent) on the 27th, the highest temperature of 2011. A minimum temperature of –1.9 °C was recorded at Altnaharra (Highland) early on the 10th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 on the 13th, 72.6 mm of rainfall was recorded at Treherbert, Mid Glamorgan. A wind gust of 69 mph was recorded on Fair Isle overnight 13th / 14th.

June Although there were spells of hot weather right at the begninning and end of the month, overall June was somewhat cool and changeable, with an average just a little beneath the long-term - although this made it the coolest June since 1991 (although 1999 and 2008 were close). There was a warms spell at the start of the month. There was an impressive short-lived heat wave in the SE at the end of the month. 29.2C was reached in St James's Park, London, on Sunday 26th, and 33.3C at the East London Olympic Site closely followed by 33.1C at Gravesend on the 27th (the hottest day since 2006). The lowest minimum was -1.9C at Altnaharra on the morning of the 10th. The minimum at Benson (Oxfordshire) on the 26-27th didn't fall beneath 19.9C. It was quite wet, with an England and Wales rainfall average of 83 mm (122%), although it was wetter in the west and still quite dry in parts of the east. Scotland and Wales were also wetter than average. It was slightly sunnier than average in the south, 209 hours average being 110%. Sussex was the sunniest place and SW Scotland the least sunny.

July:

After a generally fine, warm first few days, the weather became unsettled. With low pressure close by, it was rather cool with showers and periods of rain, heavy and prolonged at times across northern areas. A brief settled interlude towards mid-month was followed by a return to low pressure and cool, unsettled conditions. The last week saw temperatures recover and drier weather, but still with plenty of cloud at times.

It was a rather cool month overall, with mean temperatures ranging from about 1 °C below average over England and Wales to about 0.5 °C below over Scotland, making this the coolest July since 2000. With several chilly nights, in terms of minimum temperature it was the coldest July across the UK since 1980. Overall, monthly rainfalls were typically close to the July averages but with significant regional variation. It was wet in a broad swathe from north-east England across eastern Scotland with about twice the average in places. In contrast, Orkney and the Western Isles had a relatively dry month with about half of the normal amount. It was also drier than average across parts of the Midlands. Sunshine totals were generally close to or somewhat below average, especially across parts of southern England, but it was a particularly sunny month in south-western Scotland.

A maximum temperature of 27.4 °C was recorded at Hartpury College (Gloucestershire) on the 25th. A minimum temperature of -0.8 °C was recorded at Kinbrace (Highland) early on the 13th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 on the 18th, 96.0 mm of rainfall was recorded at Capel Curig (Conwy). A wind gust of 58 mph was recorded at Needles Old Battery (Isle of Wight) on the 8th.

July. A cool month, with frequent N and NE winds; the coolest on average since 2007, and locally in the south since 1988. There was a fine, warm beginning and then very unsettled with some heavy rain and thunderstorms. After a dry week 94 mm of rain fell at Aberfeldy between the 4th and 9th. The 5th and 6th were particularly wet in east Scotland.The 18th was a cool day, with maxima of just 12C in the West, Wales, and Orkney and Shetland. It was a warm end to the month in the south and east. The highest temperature of the month was 27.5 at Olympic Park (London) on the 5th; the lowest -0.8C at Kinbrace (Sutherland) on the 13th. It was very slightly wetter than average (62 mm, 108% England and Wales average); Capel Curig in North Wales had 193 mm, while Orkney had just 18 mm. Sunshine was very close to average, although it was sunnier than average in Northern Ireland. St Athan (Glamorgan) saw the most sunshine, with 258 hours, and Lerwick in Shetland the least (with just 64 hours).

August:

With areas of low pressure over or close to the UK for most of the month, the weather was predominantly unsettled and cool. Showers or more persistent rainfall occurred on many days, especially across Scotland and northern England.

It was a rather cool month overall, with cloud cover often suppressing daytime temperatures. Mean temperatures ranged from about 0.3 °C below the 1971-2000 average over eastern England and the Midlands to about 0.8 °C below over Northern Ireland, much of Scotland and parts of western England and Wales. It was the coolest August since 1993 across Scotland and Northern Ireland, but similar to August 2010 across England and Wales. The rainfall pattern was highly variable, with over twice the average amount in the eastern half of Scotland parts of north-east England and locally across central southern England. In contrast, parts of Northern Ireland, Wales and the west Midlands were drier than average — with less than 50% of normal in the west Midlands. It was a rather dull month in all areas, with sunshine totals typically about 75% of normal.

A maximum temperature of 30.3 °C was recorded at Gravesend (Kent) on the 3rd. A minimum temperature of 0.5 °C was recorded at Lough Navar (County Fermanagh) on the 31st. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 on the 11th, 108.2 mm of rainfall was recorded at Blaenau Ffestiniog (Gwynedd). A wind gust of 68 mph was recorded at Rosehearty (Aberdeenshire) on the 28th.

August. After a very warm start the month was cool and unsettled, with the overall result that the month was slightly cooler than average. It was particularly cool in Scotland. It was slightly wetter than average (85 mm, 118%),and much wetter in Scotland (123 mm, 179%), and it was particularly wet in east Scotland. It was a very cloudy and dull month (England and Wales average of 146 hours, just 74% of the average, the dullest since the exceptional month of August 2008). There was a short-lived heatwave in the southeast at the start of the month. It reached 30.3C at Swanscombe (Kent) on the 3rd. There was some heavy rain midmonth. 60 mm of rain fell in the Bournemouth area on the morning of the 18th, leading to flooding. At Stratfied Mortimer in Berkshire 63 mm of rain fell, iwht about 30 mm between 1 and 2 pm, the highest daily total there for a century. The 18th was also a cold day; the maximum at Luton was just 13.3, the lowest in the area in August since 1978; at Whipsnade the maximum was just 12.3C.

September:

A changeable ‘westerly’ weather type prevailed for most of the month with showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the north-west. There were also some strong winds at times. The last week saw a fine, very warm spell with some exceptionally high temperatures for the time of year.

The mean temperature was 1.5 °C above the 1971-2000 average and it was the warmest September since 2006 and the equal-sixth warmest in the last 100 years. Most of England saw below average rainfall, with much of the Midlands, East Anglia, Kent and other eastern areas recording less than half the normal amount. This was the seventh consecutive dry month in the Midlands. In contrast, the western Highlands of Scotland and parts of north-west England recorded over 150% of average. Sunshine amounts varied from somewhat below normal over western Scotland and Northern Ireland to above normal in East Anglia.

A maximum temperature of 29.2 °C was recorded at Cambridge and Sutton Bonington (Nottinghamshire) on the 30th. A minimum temperature of -0.4 °C was recorded at Tyndrum (Stirling) early on the 15th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 on the 6th, 135.6 mm of rainfall was recorded at Black Sail, Ennerdale, Cumbria. A wind gust of 87 mph was recorded at Needles Old Battery (Isle of Wight) on the 6th.

September. A changeable, very southwesterly month. Overall about 1.5C above the long-term CET average. The highest temperature came right at the end; the lowest was -0.4C at Tyndrum on the 15th. Relatively dry in England and Wales, with 57 mm being 69% of the long-term average, although it was slightly wetter than average in Scotland and Northern Ireland. It was slighly sunnier than average (155 hours, 108%). On the 12th the remnants of Hurricane Katia brought gales and rain to the north. There was a remarkable heatwave at the end month, giving some of the highest temperatures at the end of the month since 1895. It reached 28.8C at Kew Gardens on the 29th, and 29.2 at Sutton Bonington (Notts.) on the 30th.

October:

The month began with a southerly airstream resulting in some exceptionally high temperatures, reaching 25–28 °C widely in England and Wales. Some places in the west and north recorded their highest temperature of the year. The rest of the month saw mostly mild westerly or southerly airstreams. These brought showers or longer spells of rain to the north-west, but areas towards the south-east were drier with further relatively warm days.

The mean temperature was 2.0 °C above the 1971–2000 average, resulting in provisionally the warmest October since 2006 and the eighth warmest in the last 100 years. New October maximum temperature records were set on the 1st for England, Wales and the UK overall. There was a marked contrast in rainfall, with amounts ranging from well below average over East Anglia and south-east England to well above in Northern Ireland and western Scotland. It was one of the wettest Octobers on record over Northern Ireland. Sunshine amounts varied from well below normal over Northern Ireland and western Scotland to well above in East Anglia. It was provisionally the dullest October on record over Northern Ireland.

A maximum temperature of 29.9 °C was recorded at Gravesend (Kent) on the 1st, provisionally the highest UK temperature on record for October. A minimum temperature of -3.3 °C was recorded at Santon Downham (Suffolk) early on the 20th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 on the 9th, 62.0 mm of rainfall was recorded at Brodick Castle, Isle of Arran. A wind gust of 77 mph was recorded at Killowen (County Down) on the 17th.

October. Overall a very warm but changeable month. It was the seventh warmest October on record (beaten only by 2006, 2005, 2001, 1995, 1969, and 1921). Most notably, the heatwave at the end of September continues, and a new record high for October is set on the 1st: 29.9C at Gravesend (Kent). On the same day a new Welsh record of 28.2C was set at Hawarden (Flint). The lowest temperature of the month was -3.3C at Lynford (Norfolk) early on the 20th. Rainfall overall was a little lower than average, with an England and Wales average of 68 mm (94%). It was wetter in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Cambridge saw only 13 mm all month. There was some very wet weather in the final week. Casement (Northern Ireland) was the wettest in the UK, with 86.0 mm in a 24 hour period ending on 25 October. WIth 122 hours, it was slightly sunnier than average (109%). Kent was the sunniest place to be with, with Manston seeing 163 hours, and good old Eskdlaemuir seeing just 30 hours.

November:

A generally southerly flow in the first three weeks brought many very mild days. There was plenty of cloud at times, and some persistent fog over eastern England, but any rainfall was showery and mainly confined to the west. During the last week a vigorous westerly air stream brought longer spells of rain and strong winds, especially to Scotland and Northern Ireland. Areas towards the south-east remained drier with further mild days. The few frosts that occurred were mainly confined to northern areas.

The mean temperature was 2.9 °C above the 1971–2000 average, resulting in provisionally the second warmest November in over 100 years with only November 1994 warmer. The number of air frosts was among the lowest for November in the last 50 years. Rainfall amounts ranged from above normal in western Scotland and Northern Ireland to below normal over north-east Scotland and most of England and Wales and they were well below over areas of eastern England. It was one of the driest Novembers on record in Lincolnshire, East Anglia and parts of the east Midlands. Sunshine amounts varied from well above normal over northern Scotland to somewhat below in the Midlands and eastern England. Provisionally, it was the sunniest November on record over northern Scotland.

A maximum temperature of 19.2 °C was recorded at Tregarth (Gwynedd) on the 13th. A minimum temperature of −6.1 °C was recorded at Redesdale (Northumberland) early on the 7th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 on the 18th, 81 mm of rainfall was recorded at Benmore, Younger Botanic Garden (Argyll and Bute). A wind gust of 90 mph was recorded on Fair Isle on the morning of the 27th.

November. The second warmest November on record, beaten only by 1994. A month with winds mostly from the southerly direction. It was warmest on the south coast, with a maximum of 18.1C at Otterbourne (Hants.) on the 13th, and a minimum of -6.9C at Carleton, Skipton (North Yorks.) on the 7th. It was a dry month in England and Wales, with just 53 mm of rain (also 53% of the average), although it was closer toa average in Scotland and Northern Ireland. It was very dry in eastern England, with just 11 mm at Bridlington, and very wet in the Glasgow region. Sunshine was almost exactly average, but still the lowest for seven years, although it was sunny in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Kinloss (Morayshire) had 101 hours, and Lerwick just 29 hours.

It'd be great if someone could give their thoughts about how the theme of our weather influenced this winter but I'm most interested in how the synoptic picture and messed up weather affected the winter.

So we had a cold January after a classic December but into February the juice was running out of the bottle as milder weather become more established. In early March a typical Spring taste of Winter but as it developed things got very dry and warmer and this evolved into a very dry and warm April. However like Winter, the juice was running out of the bottle which resulted in a changeable May before getting progressively worse into June. Early July wasn't much better either but some short warmer periods were present despite the generall cool, dull and wet theme. August felt more autumnal but was a slight improvement on the summer front with some more warmer and sunnier days. This was the start of a summer resurgence that spoilt Autumn for those wanting typical seasonal conditions. A Warm September and mild October resulted in a continuation of the dull and wet weather for Scotland and dryness for England but other than the exceptional warmth of early October, really this weather did nothing for nobody. This theme continued into November however briefly normality interved in the north with frost. A generally mild November got progressively more unsettled which resulted in the stormy December and snow for the north. This resurgance of the Atlantic and Azores High persisted well into January before the Scandinavian Block arrived but even still the Azores High stood strong and the Atlantic continued to roar with more juice in the bottle.

It seems that the Blocked and Warm Spring allowed for the cool, blocked summer which resulted in a return to Summer when we start to stop thinking about it - resulting in a poor Autumn which subsequently allowed for the an Atlantic winter. Because of the summer that never happened followed by the Autumn that never happened, we never had enough time for winter to settle down and allow for blocking and cold weather to become available. The ruthless, changeable and out of order, messed up weather made for an unbalanced winter. For the next few seasons, we need to watch what the weather of the NH and the stratosphere is like, see what long range models are picking up and seeing how accurate it is. By Autumn we should know how the year has panned out and us 2010 and 2011 as a control to see where we stand for winter.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Fairly similar tosnow? norfolk n chance's Winter. It has been a satisfactory Winter here. The highlights would be some of the wintry weather occuring in February with one 10cm fall of wet snow near the beginning of the period. This did start melting quickly, nevertheless, as milder attempted power up the cold spell shield over me. There was also further odd wintry outbreaks throughout, and I would say for snow potential, this February so far has been better than some of the snow-free Februarys I have experienced in my lifetime.

There were some crisp sunny days, with the occasional frost, but the downsides of this Winter would be the days where cloud, mist or drizzle occured, as well as that rather mild period around Christmas. Personally, I prefer seeing cold weather in Winter, although I don't mind a few mild spells, but only if sunny spells accompany them.

Overall, I would give this Winter a rating of 6/10.

One thing I feel that should be learned from Winter 2011/12 is not to set your expectations too high. I made this mistake and believed that we would see a cold spell as severe as the last two/three Winter's with a large Greenland High-Pressure system. I think this was also thanks to the fact I kinda fell for some of the exaggerated Winter forecasts and wished I paid more attention to forecasts such as those from Glacier Point.

Edited February 25, 2012 by Rainbow Snow

[A Winter's Tale]

One thing I feel that should be learned from Winter 2011/12 is not to set your expectations too high. I made this mistake and believed that we would see a cold spell as severe as the last two/three Winter's with a large Greenland High-Pressure system. I think this was also thanks to the fact I kinda fell for some of the exaggerated Winter forecasts and wished I paid more attention to forecasts such as those from Glacier Point.

Great point!

It's one thing having High Pressure Systems over Greenland, but having it at the wrong time (summer) determined the destiny of the winter. Hopefully this year won't be the same and the Euro High/Azores High won't be as dominant next Autumn/Winter. We need the Azores High to have it's swansong in September i.e we need our weather to stabalise.

[sundog]

This "winter" here was nothing but pure rubbish overall. 2 slight temporary dustings of snow in Dec and 5 air frosts-that was my winter.

The best part of the winter for me was the first 2-3 weeks of Dec when there was periods of PM air,nothing spectacular but at least it felt seasonal enough. Those first 2-3 weeks of Dec i find kind of ironic,because the background set up at the time was very poor for any cold at all really and most of us accepted that the first half of the winter was unlikely to deliver much in the way of cold and were waiting for the second half to deliver. So while the background set up generally improved in the second part of the winter-strat warming etc-it didnt deliver for most of the BI (apart from some parts of England of course in the first half of Feb).

I would give winter 2011/12 - 2/10 and thats only because of those first few weeks of Dec.

Winter 2011/12 =FAIL

Winter 2012/13 must try harder!

Edited February 25, 2012 by sundog

[reef]

Let's have a look at how the weather of 2011 may have influenced the winter:

Perhaps you would like to quote the sources of your descriptions of the months? One there is definitely Trevor Harley's site.

[danm]

For this area of the UK (London and the SE), winter 2011/12 has been average if you analyse December, January and February. An excellent 2 week cold spell earlier this month saved this winter from being desperately poor. December and January were rubbish. The two week cold spell earlier this month, however, provided us with just over a week of lying snow, two separate snow events and about 6-7 inches of lying snow combined from both snowfalls. It's not often that London has snow on the ground for a week.

So overall, this winter has been average. But for the cold spell early this month, this winter could have gone down as the worst since about 98/99.

Edited February 26, 2012 by danm

[Zenarcher]

This winter to me has been a mix of things but one I would not ask for anytime soon to repeat. November here was mainly mild but settled don't mind that at all usually its wet and windy. December was easily the worse month of the winter with constant low pressure systems that were very strong brought 3 storms in total and 2 of them hit here and one of them the worst in 6 years. January started off with another storm ripping through Scotland but after that it was mainly settled and a bit chilly at times in fact I remember one day it actually snowed but didn't last long only over night. Not got complaints about January though its usually the most unsettled month of the year. February continued where we left of in January mainly settled and a bit cold at times as well.

Overall mainly settled and mild with the occasional short lived cold spells and a very stormy December but no prolonged cold spells I guess we are paying for last year.

Edited February 26, 2012 by weathermaster

[Aaron]

For this area of the UK (London and the SE), winter 2011/12 has been average if you analyse December, January and February. An excellent 2 week cold spell earlier this month saved this winter from being desperately poor. December and January were rubbish. The two week cold spell earlier this month, however, provided us with just over a week of lying snow, two separate snow events and about 6-7 inches of lying snow combined from both snowfalls. It's not often that London has snow on the ground for a week.

So overall, this winter has been average. But for the cold spell early this month, this winter could have gone down as the worst since about 98/99.

Yes the February 'cold spell' saved it from terrible status for here

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2011-12: 45 up to 25th February

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2003-04: 50

2001-02: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

1982-83: 85

1980-81: 90

1977-78: 90

1986-87: 100

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

[jean91]

For this area of the UK (London and the SE), winter 2011/12 has been average if you analyse December, January and February. An excellent 2 week cold spell earlier this month saved this winter from being desperately poor. December and January were rubbish. The two week cold spell earlier this month, however, provided us with just over a week of lying snow, two separate snow events and about 6-7 inches of lying snow combined from both snowfalls. It's not often that London has snow on the ground for a week.

So overall, this winter has been average. But for the cold spell early this month, this winter could have gone down as the worst since about 98/99.

It is the same for my area may be even worse : even with the last couple of days on 23rd 12.2c and on the 24th an impressive 15.9c for my location, yesterday 10.9c

We are still up to the 25th February at an average max of 4.4c and average low of -2.6c

Really the cold wave saved IT ALL!!!!!!!!

Ps just about Friday ( 23rd ) evening there was still some tiny layer of ice left on lakes ( in shades that is) !!!

[Alex95]

Interesting that 02/03 ranks below 11/12 on the Manchester winter index - there were a few decent snowfalls here in January at least, and I remember about 10cm at one point. It wasn't great, but certainly average.

[Isolated Frost]

Based on snowfall, probably the worst of the century, tied with 06/07 and 07/08.

For snowfall + cold, probably a little bit better, tied with 03/04 and 01/02.

For snowfall + cold + sunshine, probably one of the best of the century, below 10/11 and 09/10.

[Methuselah]

Well - during my fifty years' of weather-observation I have seen better and worse. But I wouldn't know how to 'rank' it...

[Bottesford]

I loved this winter as it has featured a very high volume of sunshine throughout.

We also got the best snowfall in years in Nottingham which happened to fall at a weekend too so could be enjoyed more.

Outside of the cold spell it has been generally mild & sunny with a distinct lack of 'nothingness' weather that features so often in winters around here (I'm talking about low cloud, temperatures around 2-6c day and night).

Early in the season we got some hefty gales to add a bit of excitement.

It's definitely lacked cold weather but the cold we've had was crisp, snowy and sunny.

In summary:

Sunshine - very high

Rain - low

Snow - once but lots of it for this location

Cold - not much, confined to one spell but a sunny, crisp one.

Dull, weatherless days: very low

Mild, sunny days - high

For me that's almost spot on - low gas bills, a lot less SAD from lack of sunlight, a good snowfall and very few days getting wet or falling to my death on black ice.

[TonyH]

It was good not to have constant rain. One of the mildest experienced here, although we never seem to fail to get a few severe frosts, and still managed -10c.

The most unusual feature was the lack of snow. Don't think we have had a whole winter of zero snow lying in our 9 years in this area.

[A Winter's Tale]

So would anyone else like to bring any analysis to how the winter ended up like this and what things we'll consider for next year's forecasts and attitudes.

[Scorcher]

Manchester Winter Index

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2011-12: 45 up to 25th February

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2003-04: 50

2001-02: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

1982-83: 85

1980-81: 90

1977-78: 90

1986-87: 100

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

Interesting to note here that many of the winters that are in the 40s in your index preceded warm summers...

Edited February 26, 2012 by Scorcher

[Summer Sun]

More than happy with how winter turned out apart from the lack of rain its been a normal winter really. The past few winters were exceptional will we see another spell like December 2010 again? Who knows.

[A Winter's Tale]

More than happy with how winter turned out apart from the lack of rain its been a normal winter really. The past few winters were exceptional will we see another spell like December 2010 again? Who knows.

History says yes Gavin - well, we will see another fairly exceptional cold spell like December 2010 but perhaps not as extreme.

[Alex95]

History says yes Gavin - well, we will see another fairly exceptional cold spell like December 2010 but perhaps not as extreme.

I reckon around 2040 here for those kinds of depths, but probably another severe month within the next 10 years. You just can't tell though - we had to wait from Feb 1991 to Jan 2010 to see around 1ft of snow here. I'd be surprised if I don't see 10cm next winter to make up for this horror show as I get that in about 75% of winters. I must get 5cm in around 95% of winters.

This winter has not been typical btw, it is quite unusual for Newcastle to not even get 5cm at some stage. Only 06/07 and 07/08 have achieved this in my lifetime, along with this year of course.

Edited February 26, 2012 by Alza 2