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A Winter's Tale

March CET

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7.6c to the 22nd

Until the end of the month at least the only way is Up. Can't say that I'm a fan of this early Spring warmth! Very likely now that March 2012 will be the warmest for 15 years. March 1997 had a CET of 8.4C.

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06Z GFS run has the 23rd - 31st averaging a massive 10.5c! 3.8c above the 71-2000 average for this part of the month.

CET by the 31st would be at 8.3c as a result. 2.0c above normal.

This new era of warming looks set be even more intense than the 1997 onwards one.

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06Z GFS run has the 23rd - 31st averaging a massive 10.5c! 3.8c above the 71-2000 average for this part of the month.

CET by the 31st would be at 8.3c as a result. 2.0c above normal.

This new era of warming looks set be even more intense than the 1997 onwards one.

How can you justify such a statement. What new era of warming are we talking about? The Uk may at present be warmer that the average but I see no trend whatsoever and more so if you take europe and the northern hemisphere as a whole.

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This new era of warming looks set be even more intense than the 1997 onwards one.

I seriously hope not!!

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How can you justify such a statement. What new era of warming are we talking about? The Uk may at present be warmer that the average but I see no trend whatsoever and more so if you take europe and the northern hemisphere as a whole.

The US is also having a record warm spring, and much of Western and Central Europe is warm. Not saying this signifies an era of warming but we are constantly getting more above average months than below average.

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How can you justify such a statement. What new era of warming are we talking about? The Uk may at present be warmer that the average but I see no trend whatsoever and more so if you take europe and the northern hemisphere as a whole.

Back in November 2010 during the exceptionally cold period many were pointing out we may be pushing towards a cold period of weather. With the general trend being a steady rise I stated that my thought were a significant rebound of warmer years would follow.

2011 was the second warmest year on record

2012 is running well above the mean and the height rises are setting us up nicely for yet another warm April.

This was the rebound I was talking about. This year so far has already exceeded expectations.

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I wouldn't get carried away yet with a global melt down. This discussion is the climate change part of the forums.

March here has been a funny month with no overall increase in average temp across the month. Been very uniform bar one cold day.

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Hadley is 7.8C to the 23rd. Yesterday was very warm at 11.1C.

Today's min is 5.5C and maxima look to be very warm too, so a rise to 7.9C or 8.0C tomorrow looks likely.

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GFS 06z has the CET at

8.0C to the 24th (11.9)

8.1C to the 25th (12.0)

8.2C to the 26th (10.0)

8.3C to the 27th (9.7)

8.3C to the 28th (9.3)

8.4C to the 29th (10.4)

8.4C to the 30th (9.6)

8.4C to the 31st (9.3)

Low 8s after corrections most likely then.

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I would say upper limit is probably about 8.5 degrees, the next 4-5 days should easily deliver CET returns over 10 degrees, we could even be bove 8.5 degrees by Thursday, but the last 2 days will see a cooldown and with slight downward adjustments I doubt the final figure will be above 8.5 degrees. A good bet would be 8.3 or 8.4 degrees - so very mild indeed, not exceptionally so, but notable all the same continuing the trend of very mild months since August barring February.

Early indications are for a much nearer average month in April possibly colder than normal, and its been a long time since we saw a decent below average April - long overdue it has to be said.

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Early indications are for a much nearer average month in April possibly colder than normal, and its been a long time since we saw a decent below average April - long overdue it has to be said.

How many times have I heard this over the last few years- even if the beginning of April is cooler it doesn't necessarily mean the month as a whole will be below average. And just because we haven't seen a below average April for a long time doesn't mean this will be the year. I'm not saying it definitely won't be but I don't see why on the back of a very warm March a cold April is likely.

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A good bet would be 8.3 or 8.4 degrees - so very mild indeed, not exceptionally so,

Actually, 8.4C would make it the joint-third warmest ever.

Current top five:

1957 - 9.2

1938 - 9.1

1997 - 8.4

1948 - 8.3

1990 - 8.3

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Only 0.2 ahead of Manley so the adjustments this month could be small, i definitely think we will be top 5 after adjustments.

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We're at 7.8C here for Sunny Sheffield. Highest temp for the month is 15C hit that four times now.

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Only 0.2 ahead of Manley so the adjustments this month could be small, i definitely think we will be top 5 after adjustments.

I agree, pretty much a certainty now. It would seem that our weather has fallen back into it's bad pre-2008 ways during the last 12 months!

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How many times have I heard this over the last few years- even if the beginning of April is cooler it doesn't necessarily mean the month as a whole will be below average. And just because we haven't seen a below average April for a long time doesn't mean this will be the year. I'm not saying it definitely won't be but I don't see why on the back of a very warm March a cold April is likely.

Quite.

I agree, pretty much a certainty now. It would seem that our weather has fallen back into it's bad pre-2008 ways during the last 12 months!

Or good perhaps..

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Quite.

Or good perhaps..

Not for me, but each to their own of course!

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Hadley is 8.3C to the 27th. Yesterday was 11.5C.

Theres still very little difference compared to Manley, which stands on 8.1C, so perhaps the adjustment this month will be small.

Either way, its going to be comfortably top 10 in the CET series and potentially as high as 3rd warmest with 1997 (8.4C).

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Either way, its going to be comfortably top 10 in the CET series and potentially as high as 3rd warmest with 1997 (8.4C).

We have had some low minimums but its the Max that have been so impressive.

The diurnal range for the last week in The CET zone must be cumulatively very high. 150c ??

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Surely we have used up our quota of well above average months during the last 12 months, 5 very mild months in April, Oct, Nov, Jan and now March, exceptionally so in the case of April.

We're overdue a colder than normal month..

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