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A Winter's Tale

March CET

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To add to summer blizzard's request, the warmest 2nd half of February and 1st half of March combinations?

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Here are some numbers that I worked out for the above questions ...

Taking each year 15 Feb to 16 March whether leap year or not, the top three averages are (ranked by total degree-days):

1961 ... 8.0 (240.2 for 30d)

1926 ... 8.0 (240.0 for 30d)

1989 ... 7.9 (238.3 for 30d)

The warmest leap year in the series was 1912 which averaged 7.6 (233.9 for 31d)

Meanwhile, the warmest three first half of March CET values after 16th (15th in brackets, no different years would qualify) ...

1957 ... 9.4 (9.3)

1961 ... 9.2 (9.1)

1834 ... 8.5 (8.7)

Note that the warmest three mid-Feb to mid-March "months" are statistically no warmer than Januaries or Februaries.

If people are interested in any other comparisons mention it in the thread, it takes very little work on the file to produce other periods and find the highest values.

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7.6C to the 11th.

I think we will be just shy on both record top three's.

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Funny how a couple of months ago we were expecting a cool Spring, and the March CET is liable to turn out well above average!

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Every chance my predicition of 8.8c will be quite close come the end of the month

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Every chance my predicition of 8.8c will be quite close come the end of the month

Well one thing's (almost) for sure and that is my guess is too low YET again, this time likely to be by some considerable magin!

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The coldest values that correspond to the above are -1.2 in 1947 (mid-Feb to mid-Mar) and -0.6 in 1845 for coldest first half.

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Funny how a couple of months ago we were expecting a cool Spring, and the March CET is liable to turn out well above average!

Yes based on the upstream signals being suggested early in Feb and the affect of a warm strat - which has failed to materialise so far this month there was a good reason to predict a cool March a few weeks back. This month so far is reminding me a bit of April last year - most didn't predict the exceptional warmth and dryness of that month. It remains to be seen whether we see a comparable month in March i.e. very mild and dry through to the end - but it would be quite a notable feat coming on the back of last April. It does feel like our springs and autumns have become exceptionally benign affairs with long lasting dry and very mild weather for the time of year - why can't this happen in the summer instead!

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7.6C to the 13th so not quite as warm as predicted in the CET zone.

Models still look warm on the whole however so i would be surprised if the eventual CET was much lower.

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looking like its going to be sub 8 at the rate it's going.

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The way the weather is behaving, does almost seem certain that this will be a well above average month. The models could suddenly churn out a chilly spell at the end of the month, which may bring the CET closer to average, although with High-Pressure seem to be staying quite solid to the South and to the East, I have my doubts about this.

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CET should fall slightly over the weekend, next week I suspect we will see very similiar values to what we have enjoyed this week.

The small diurnal ranges in temps over recent days have been notable with mins and maxes very similiar, but if we do see clearer conditions next week nightime minima will be much lower but maxima possibly higher - tomorrow will be a good example with cool minima but high maxima.

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Expecting a slight drop tomorrow and Monday thanks to cold nights so we could be close to 7 degrees by Tuesday but thereafter it should rise comfortably as we high maxima again next week, though tempered somewhat by colder nights as we begin to pull in drier continental air.

Hard to say what the finishing CET value will be but at this stage it does look like being a very mild March, can't see 9 degrees being achieved but something close to 8.5 degrees does look very plausible, but a cold spell at the end could bring it down to 8 degrees, can't see it coming in much below 7.5 degrees.

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all three techniques suggesting a mid 7 finish at the moment.

my graph is now charting all three systems of forecast and how they compare to the cet in question.

hadley cet

netweather cet and

shawbury proxy cet.

click below

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I think mid 7s is conservative now, I can only see the CET rising over the next week to 10 days although some cooler nights might offset the mild maximum temperatures. It's difficult to see how it can fall significantly from here on in.

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7.3C to the 19th.

A finish in the low 8C's before corrections seems the mark to me.

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Hadley is 7.4C to the 20th. Yesterday was rather warm at 9.2C.

Today should see another rise as the min is down as 6.9C.

How high it goes does depend on cloud amounts. If we get the scenario of cloud moving in from the North Sea overnight holding up temperatures and burning away during the day to still give high maxima, that means the next week could have a huge upward effect on the CET.

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