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A Winter's Tale

March CET

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6.6C please. My guess is that it will be slightly milder than average in southern and central areas but possibly colder than average for northern regions.

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Am I too late?

If not then 6.1 please

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A reminder of the revised late rules for this year.

Entries on the 1st of the month incur a 10 pt penalty.

Entries on the 2nd of the month incur a 20 pt penalty.

Entries on the 3rd of the month incur a 30 pt penalty.

No later entries are allowed,

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Posted · Hidden by Roger J Smith, March 6, 2012 - No reason given
Hidden by Roger J Smith, March 6, 2012 - No reason given

Final Table of entries (and data) for March CET

__________________________________

10.0 . Craig Evans, Robbie Garrett

9.9 ...

9.8 ...

9.7 ...

9.6 ...

9.5 ...

9.4 ...

9.3 ...

9.2 ... warmest (1957)

9.1 ... second warmest (1938)

9.0 ...

8.9 ...

8.8 ... Gavin D

8.7 ...

8.6 ...

8.5 ...

8.4 ... third warmest (1997)

8.3 ... fourth warmest (1948 & 90)

8.2 ... warmest of 18th century (1750)

8.1 ... BornFromTheVoid*

8.0 ...

7.9 ...

7.8 ... warmest of 19th century (1822)

7.7 ... Snowstorm1, Optimus Prime,

7.6 ... summer blizzard

7.5 ...

7.4 ... Scorcher, mark4

7.3 ... AtlanticFlamethrower

7.2 ... Tellow

7.1 ... geoffw

7.0 ... Stargazer, the PIT, DR Hosking, Polar Gael, Froze were the Days*

6.9 ... Hedgehog4, Sunlover, Roger J Smith

6.8 ... Alex, Norrance, damianslaw, reef, davehsug

6.7 ... Solar Sausage, Koppite, Fozfoster, Thundery winter showers

6.6 ... Alza 2, Milhouse, Don ....... ------ mean 1981-2010 -----

6.5 ... A Scottish Winter's Tale, TonyH, sundog, Ben_Cambs

6.4 ... ledders69, Steve B, Jackone, DAVID SNOW, stormmad26,

6.3 ... Bluebreezer54, coram, Great Plum, Mark Bayley ... ----- mean 1971-2000 -----

6.2 ... Ferryhill Weather, godber

6.1 ... Styx, Stationary Front, Aceman*

6.0 ... Isolated Frost, Mr_Data, Duncan McAlister, Paul T*

5.9 ... Deep Snow, Jack Wales, AderynCoch

5.8 ... Terminal Moraine

5.7 ... March Blizzard, alex131297, BurwellWeatherWatch ..... ----- mean 1961-90 -----

5.6 ... virtualsphere, Kentish Man

5.5 ... mulzy

5.4 ... Bottesford

5.3 ... stewfox

5.2 ... Aaron, Midlands Ice Age

5.1 ... Goku

5.0 ... Rainbow Snow

4.9 ...

4.8 ...

4.7 ...

4.6 ...

4.5 ... BARRY

4.4 ...

4.3 ...

4.2 ...

4.1 ...

4.0 ...

3.9 ...

3.8 ...

3.7 ...

3.6 ...

3.5 ...

3.4 ...

3.3 ...

3.2 ...

3.1 ...

3.0 ...

2.9 ...

2.8 ... coldest of 20th century (1962 -- ranked 16th coldest all time)

2.7 ...

2.6 ...

2.5 ... 2006 sat around this value as late as 20th then warmed to 4.9

2.4 ...

2.3 ...

2.2 ...

2.1 ...

2.0 ... mean of 1784-86 (talk about climate change)

1.9 ... fourth coldest (1883)

1.8 ... third coldest (1748)

1.7 ...

1.6 ...

1.5 ...

1.4 ...

1.3 ...

1.2 ... second coldest (1785)

1.1 ...

1.0 ... coldest (1674)

________________________________________________________

* entries one day late

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Correct me if i am wrong but i believe that the average for mid-month is about 5.5C so a good chance that we will be near 8C to mid-month.

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I have reproduced the table of entries as it's too late to edit out a mistake (two entries were reversed) ...

Final Table of entries (and data) for March CET

__________________________________

10.0 . Craig Evans, Robbie Garrett

9.9 ...

9.8 ...

9.7 ...

9.6 ...

9.5 ...

9.4 ...

9.3 ...

9.2 ... warmest (1957)

9.1 ... second warmest (1938)

9.0 ...

8.9 ...

8.8 ... Gavin D

8.7 ...

8.6 ...

8.5 ...

8.4 ... third warmest (1997)

8.3 ... fourth warmest (1948 & 90)

8.2 ... warmest of 18th century (1750)

8.1 ... Froze were the Days*

8.0 ...

7.9 ...

7.8 ... warmest of 19th century (1822)

7.7 ... Snowstorm1, Optimus Prime,

7.6 ... summer blizzard

7.5 ...

7.4 ... Scorcher, mark4

7.3 ... AtlanticFlamethrower

7.2 ... Tellow

7.1 ... geoffw

7.0 ... Stargazer, the PIT, DR Hosking, Polar Gael, BornFromTheVoid*

6.9 ... Hedgehog4, Sunlover, Roger J Smith

6.8 ... Alex, Norrance, damianslaw, reef, davehsug

6.7 ... Solar Sausage, Koppite, Fozfoster, Thundery winter showers

6.6 ... Alza 2, Milhouse, Don ....... ------ mean 1981-2010 -----

6.5 ... A Scottish Winter's Tale, TonyH, sundog, Ben_Cambs

6.4 ... ledders69, Steve B, Jackone, DAVID SNOW, stormmad26,

6.3 ... Bluebreezer54, coram, Great Plum, Mark Bayley ... ----- mean 1971-2000 -----

6.2 ... Ferryhill Weather, godber

6.1 ... Styx, Stationary Front, Aceman*

6.0 ... Isolated Frost, Mr_Data, Duncan McAlister, Paul T*

5.9 ... Deep Snow, Jack Wales, AderynCoch

5.8 ... Terminal Moraine

5.7 ... March Blizzard, alex131297, BurwellWeatherWatch ..... ----- mean 1961-90 -----

5.6 ... virtualsphere, Kentish Man

5.5 ... mulzy

5.4 ... Bottesford

5.3 ... stewfox

5.2 ... Aaron, Midlands Ice Age

5.1 ... Goku

5.0 ... Rainbow Snow

4.9 ...

4.8 ...

4.7 ...

4.6 ...

4.5 ... BARRY

4.4 ...

4.3 ...

4.2 ...

4.1 ...

4.0 ...

3.9 ...

3.8 ...

3.7 ...

3.6 ...

3.5 ...

3.4 ...

3.3 ...

3.2 ...

3.1 ...

3.0 ...

2.9 ...

2.8 ... coldest of 20th century (1962 -- ranked 16th coldest all time)

2.7 ...

2.6 ...

2.5 ... 2006 sat around this value as late as 20th then warmed to 4.9

2.4 ...

2.3 ...

2.2 ...

2.1 ...

2.0 ... mean of 1784-86 (talk about climate change)

1.9 ... fourth coldest (1883)

1.8 ... third coldest (1748)

1.7 ...

1.6 ...

1.5 ...

1.4 ...

1.3 ...

1.2 ... second coldest (1785)

1.1 ...

1.0 ... coldest (1674)

________________________________________________________

* entries one day late

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Could anybody calculate the CET to the 15th?

Not quite sure how warm it can get given that days are still marginally shorter than nights however if we see a similar pattern to the proposed one lasting until the end of the month then i think we could well aim for the gap between first and second.

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Likely to be appreciably above the average CET figure come mid month - with means by the weekend and into next week comfortably coming in close to the 10 degree mark I suspect (averages of 13-14 degree maxes, and 6-7 degree mins), maxes could be higher when sun breaks but conversely lower mins if we see clear skies at night.

It already looks a very tall order to achieve a below average CET this month - even at this very early stage, but stranger things have happened take last month with the major switcharound, and late March certainly can deliver chilly conditions if we see any northerly/northeasterly airstream.

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6.6C to the 8th.

Onwards and upwards from here so the CET could well be above 8C to mid month.

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Just like to say thanks to Jackone for praising my accuracy on the CET prediction over the winter, always had a hunch it would be a milder than average winter but not particularly so with a cold spell 'thrown' in some where.

It's the first total winter CET predictions I think I've done, so if anybody would like to PM for winter 2012/13 then I'll let you know my thoughts for a small fee! :D Watch me be a mile out with my CET for March!

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Hadley is 6.9C to the 9th.

This could potentially be a very warm first half of the month. GFS has us on 8.2C to the 16th and thats with the usual scenario of seeing higher max temps than shown.

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Yup. With the models indicating that high pressure will rebuild as well we could well see us hitting that third place gap that i spoke of.

Also a possibility of date records/20C on Thursday and/or Friday as the advancing high pressure pulls up warmer uppers for the south east.

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GFS18z would smash the records for warmest and sunniest March on record, bar the blip next weekend.

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my estimate for the month's cet is now shown in my new signature below.

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