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A Winter's Tale

March CET

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In around 12 or so day's time we would have started March, the first but coldest month of the Spring!

We've had an Atlantic dominated winter, some HLB in February - failing to really pull it off - So what can we expect for March?

We know that we'll see periods of undisturbed sunshine, there will be last strong winds, there will be snow and frost and the first warm feeling days in March but how sunny will it be, how snowy a month will it be, how warm will the hottest day will be? All to do with the synoptics and that affects the CET!

Normally, every March somehwere (usually the north) sees Snow and sometimes very large snowfalls (3 years since 2006 have seen the largest snowfalls of the season happen in March) so after a winter that had some areas missing out on the snow, there is chance for not only to see the white stuff but to be able to go sledging in it! Can we see our winter arrive properly for everyone or March like our summer arrived in September last year or will it just be normal, insignificant snow for the north?

My thoughts on March are that:

We'll see a mild start; followed by northerly outbreaks; either see high pressure set up over UK or low pressure to be around but allowing for long periods of sunshine - nonetheless I expect periods of both cool-cold to mild-warm days during this period.

Therefore my March CET is 6.5C.

The coldest March CET is 1.0C in 1674 and the warmest is 9.2C in 1957. The warmest March that I can remember was probably 2002 at 7.6C and the coldest was probably 2001 at 5.2C. I'd prefer the latter, but I'd love anything out of the colder 178 months available as long as we get some good sunshine and warmth in at times in April and throughout May.

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I'll go for the old average: 5.7C - A complete guess!

The beauty of March is that is possibly the most varied month for weather - Snow, sleet, hail, wind, rain, cold, mild, warm, dry, sunny, dull are all possible throughout the month in almost equal measure; March is rarely a boring month!

Also, i expect no less than a Blizzard on my birthday!

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March has generally been warm or very warm throughout the last 20 odd years with only 1996, 2001 and 2006 seeing anything of note in terms of a colder than average March; even then 2001 and 2006 were below the older averages (61-90 and earlier sets) by less than 1*C. It is 40 odd years since we saw a notably cold March. (CET less than 4*C). Only more recent years in 1987 and 1996 saw CETs of 4.1 and 4.5 respectively.

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6.9'C

An average or warm start quickly leading to a touch cooler conditions with drier and more settled conditions with a wintry theme evident

A generally average 10-20th with a mix of cooler and warmer days with average rainfall with beautiful Spring conditions possible although perhaps some cooler days generating a wintry feel

An overall average - mild end.

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If I'm interpreting them rightly, GP's posts seem to indicate some sort of April 1981-esque switcharound.

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Well I'm sticking to my predicitions of a mild March,

8.8c

That's a bit extreme. I'll get me records out but I feel that we'll be unlikely sustain temperatures long enough for a CET like that.

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Well Gavin, in 353 years of statistics only two years have had a March CET higher than 8.8C.

Also Gavin, you are very welcome to participate in the Seasonal Forecast Thread and that goes for anyone else on here who hasn't tried a seasonal forecast :)

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My estimate: 5.0*C

Reckon it will be the 'March of Dreams' delivering some rather varied weather with cold spells (which I think will be more common during the beginning) balanced out by warm spells. :D

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This is more of a hopecast then a forecast.. but I really want a warm summer this year so I'm hoping no spring month goes cuckoo and becomes wildly above average like 2007, 2008 and 2011.. so 5.2C, the coolest since 2006 (5.1)

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6.6°C I reckon :)

Northern England is due a good March snowfall though, we haven't had one since 2008!

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Well I'm sticking to my predicitions of a mild March,

8.8c

Well that would be just typical after the disappointing Winter! As for my guess, too early at the moment but I can't see it being a cold one.

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My estimate: 5.0*C

Reckon it will be the 'March of Dreams' delivering some rather varied weather with cold spells (which I think will be more common during the beginning) balanced out by warm spells. :D

That sounds lovely!

Out of all the records, here is the warmest, the coldest, my dream set, my nightmare set.

The Warmest:

January: 7.5C (1916)

February: 7.9C (1779)

March: 9.2C (1957)

April: 11.8C (2011)

May: 15.1C (1833)

June: 18.2C (1846)

July: 19.7C (2006)

August: 19.2C (1995)

September: 16.8C (2006)

October: 13.3C (2001)

November: 10.1C (1994)

December: 8.1C (1974)

The Coldest:

January: -3.1C (1795)

February: -1.9C (1947)

March: 1.0C (1674)

April: 4.7C (1701)

May: 8.5C (1698)

June: 11.5C (1675)

July: 13.4C (1816)

August: 12.9C (1912)

September: 10.5C (1674)

October: 5.3C (1740)

November: 2.3C (1782)

December: -0.8C (1890)

Dream Set:

January: -3.1C

February: -1.9C

March: 1.0C

April: 7.9C

May: 13.9C

June: 18.2C

July: 19.7C

August: 15.6C

September: 13.3C

October: 9.7C

November: 2.3C

December: -0.8C

Nightmare; exluding April, May, September

January: 7.5C

February: 7.9C

March: 9.2C

June: 11.5C

July: 13.4C

August: 12.9C

October: 13.3C

November: 10.1C

December: 8.1C

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The last one looks like Ireland.

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That sounds lovely!

Dream Set:

January: -3.1C

February: -1.9C

March: 1.0C

April: 7.9C

May: 13.9C

June: 18.2C

July: 19.7C

August: 15.6C

September: 13.3C

October: 9.7C

November: 2.3C

December: -0.8C

Nightmare; exluding April, May, September

January: 7.5C

February: 7.9C

March: 9.2C

June: 11.5C

July: 13.4C

August: 12.9C

October: 13.3C

November: 10.1C

December: 8.1C

Thanks. :)

(lol) Love your idea of nightmare year in terms of CET temperatures. With not much difference between the coldest CET and warmest CET that would probably qualify as a nightmare for me too. Personally love those huge differences in CET temperatures from the coldest Winter month and from the warmest Summer month, so that dream one will be very well suited to me. Also means I'd likely to experience some very cold spells during Winter perhaps with lots of snowfall chances, while the very warm CET temperatures in Summer means I'd likely experience numerous warm/hot days with a good share of thundery outbreaks. :)

Amazed to find the coldest March CET was only 1*C. Even for a month like January, that would be cold. But then again I suppose March can share a lot of Winter qualities such as January only that the days are longer, and with growth starting to appear on various plants.

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I shall hold off before making my prediction however with the stratosphere below average but zonal winds also below average this to me points to another high pressure dominated month although with the high being pushed south and east resulting in a milder than average CET.

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With the 1981-2010 average at 6.6C then i will go for 7.6C although i fear that it could be quite a bit warmer. We may however get a cool down in the last third.

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