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The Seasonal Forecast Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I am sure this will get lots of 'likes' Roger as it is what most folk are hoping for.

Not that I am implying in any way your forecast is skewed for them-as ever you produce reasoned outlooks from your system which still mystifies me but both short and longer range you have had some pretty good successes.

many thanks for your time and the forecast.

No offence meant by this, Roger and John...But it does contain the word 'snow'...

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Roger - your Jan and Feb forecast looks like an almost carbon copy of the forecast (from memory) you came up with last year. Is there any particular recurring reason for this, or just chance? Last year the Siberian High got close - ever so close - but was constantly blocked and bent the wrong way by the ridging Azores High. Do you see the Azores High playing such a large role this Jan/Feb?

Last year the research output showed the coldest part of the winter to be mid-January to early February and I predicted a cold to mild transition in February. Except for the late onset of the cold, last winter's forecast fared reasonably well (in Dec and Feb mostly, Jan was the problem month). So this is not a copy but I have added a few new research factors since last year's output and back-casting I noticed a slight improvement in the model relative to the January outcome.

We are always on that "knife edge" for winter patterns extending into the UK and Ireland, last year there was a more pronounced gradient from east to west than is normally the case from climatology. This year the signal for February looks stronger to me and also the theoretical reasoning places the core of cold to the north rather than east so it should have a better chance of extending all the way west through various regions.

From this output, I would be very surprised if this winter did not produce at least a reasonable amount of winter weather, for me the main question now is whether it goes into the record books or just turns out fairly good like 2009-10. By fairly good, of course I mean fairly bad for normal folks.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Last year the research output showed the coldest part of the winter to be mid-January to early February and I predicted a cold to mild transition in February. Except for the late onset of the cold, last winter's forecast fared reasonably well (in Dec and Feb mostly, Jan was the problem month). So this is not a copy but I have added a few new research factors since last year's output and back-casting I noticed a slight improvement in the model relative to the January outcome.

We are always on that "knife edge" for winter patterns extending into the UK and Ireland, last year there was a more pronounced gradient from east to west than is normally the case from climatology. This year the signal for February looks stronger to me and also the theoretical reasoning places the core of cold to the north rather than east so it should have a better chance of extending all the way west through various regions.

From this output, I would be very surprised if this winter did not produce at least a reasonable amount of winter weather, for me the main question now is whether it goes into the record books or just turns out fairly good like 2009-10. By fairly good, of course I mean fairly bad for normal folks.

Well - I'll say this. You have gone for a very early prediction of the general pattern and I have said before that I think your success rate is astonishingly high. People would do well to take note of this "trendcast" (if I can call it that rather than a forecast) and remember that you released it a full 3 months before Xmas. Success at that range would be very impressive, and I would love to know as to your methods - as I quietly remarked last year... Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

I am trying an experiment this Winter, which is to try and predict each month of Winter 3 MONTHS in advance *edit* (well 2 1/2 months) ..( I am going to try and predict December in October, January in November and Feb in December).

I am not going to call upon ANY charts or data to draw my conclusions, I am simply going to use intuition and ''Feel''.

at the end of each month (Dec / Jan / Feb) I shall come back here and see how close the actual events that came to pass compare against my predictions.

The reason I am doing this, is that I have over the past few years gotten pretty close with my predictions and I feel the time has come for me to have them written down and archived for my own records , I hope this post won't vanish as I'd like to use them to link people to at some future point.

So here goes my thoughts or predictions for December...I am not going to try and be too specific as trying to get the detail nailed down this far out is a pointless exercise and something no one can achieve, but I am going to try my best to paint as broad a picture as I can.

December 2012 , Jason's (EML) Analysis / Prediction

When looking at December in my minds eye, I am seeing sunny days with broken cloud..this doesn't mean that every day will be sunny with broken cloud, but it does mean that I think there will be more sunny days on offer than is normal for December, or perhaps a better phrase is to say there will be more sunshine hours in December for many parts of the UK than is normal for December. I expect some parts of the country will buck this trend, but I can't be specific as to where will see the most sunshine and where will see the least, I suspect that parts of Scotland might see the highest amount WHEN COMPARED TO THE NORM.

Temperatures I think will come out slightly above average for most places , again some areas will be average and perhaps some places slightly below, but if we were to get an average for the whole country for December my feeling is that most places will be slightly above or possibly ''mild'' for December.

I don't mean that every day will be milder than average, I expect there will be a few colder 'snaps' but I think this will be offset by a larger number of days where the temperature will be above the norm and so hence the month when looked at on the whole will be above average.

When looking at rainfall, I am really struggling to see a dominant pattern, although as stated above I can see more sunshine hours , I can also see some very wet days, so it's a mixed signal on this one.

Perhaps what I AM seeing is a few periods during the month when we see some very wet days indeed, with some high rainfall totals in a short space of time, or perhaps some of the days where I am seeing sunshine I am also seeing showers at some point in those days, possibly overnight as opposed to during the day.

Wind...when looking at the wind, I am on the whole seeing a more settled month, this doesn't mean to say every day will be settled and quiet on the wind front, but overall I feel that the conditions will be more often settled than unsettled, suggesting that High Pressure will possibly be the more dominant pattern over the month.

I normally have a feel that some parts of the UK will experience some deep areas of Low pressure, normally I can see these over the North West or the South East, but I'm struggling to see anything really windy , with the exception of the last few days of December.

My feeling is that in the last week of December, we are likely to see a shift from settled to unsettled and I feel as if there might be a quite potent spell of wet and windy weather at the end of December, if pushed I would lean more towards this being a cold snap too, so potentially at the end of December I think the first widespread snow event of the Winter will take place, but I wouldn't like to say where this will be, just that it will be somewhere (sorry).

Snowfall, this is what a lot of people want to see over Winter, and I am really finding it hard to see any SIGNIFICANT snow events taking place up until around the 20th Dec (ish).

As I have said above my feeling is that as the month comes to a close I think things are likely to change and what has been a MOSTLY settled month might very well become less settled , colder and the chances of a significant snow event might start to unfold.

So that's about it, sorry it's a bit wishy washy, but at least I've given it a go, time will tell as to just how close I will come and I'll try to make some form of analysis in January

J

Edited by EML Network
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

oops

Edited by EML Network
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

MattHugo81

Latest ECMWF seasonal update is out & for D/J/F the overall pattern would lead to more of a +NAO pattern & little risk of a colder scenario

10/8/12 6:43 PM

MattHugo81

High pressure is in abundance, but there's a -ve anom near Greenland, whilst pressure is higher to the W & SW. Conflicting signals as usual.

10/8/12 6:44 PM

I think the ECMW forecasts for Winter in the last few months have covered every possibility. It does appear the synoptics are not strong either way, so as usual we are no wiser.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Here's my forecast based on hunches, past stats etc.

I believed it was only a matter of a time that April and indeed June and September who have for so long not returned a month that was at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average would statistically have to do so. Infact all 3 did so in the same year!

I'm using that same train of thought with this winter forecast.

We have not had a Scandinavian high bringing a notable easterly during the height of winter for some years. Infact we've not a Scandinavian high dominated winter for some years of the 1995-96 type.

So I believe that we may see a notable cold snowy easterly during January of the late January 1996 type.

I think December will be fairly wet and unsettled but not specially mild, a bit like December 1993. The further north, you are the more wintry potential, there will be.

January will be much drier and anticyclonic with a cold snowy easterly brought by an intense Scandi high around mid to late month. A lot of snow in the east. As a consequence, it will be a cold month, close to January 2010 in terms of coldness, maybe colder.

When was the last time we saw a cold spell breakdown bringing a widespread snowfall? Well for February, during the early part of the month, this is what I will be going for but because of the nature of the Scandi high block, I am going for a February 1994 scenario where there were a couple of breakdowns but the block over Scandi high reasserted itself. So a fairly cold month with some spells of rain, sleet and snow, the intensity and location of the snowfalls depending how far the fronts can make into the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Barry's Winter Forecast

A Repeat of November 2010?

November: November will start of very mild, highs of 14C in the north and 16C in the south. Rainfall will be average or just below. Highs of 10-13C in Scotland with above average rainfall. By mid November it will cool down to average temperatures. Frost will start to return for Scotland and Northern England. Rainfall will be around average for this period too. By the end of November blocking around Greenland will force arctic air down the UK, Scotland and Northern England will turn exceptionally cold, struggling to get above freezing in Scotland and highs of 1-2C in the North. The south will be milder at 4-5C. By the very end of November snow will start falling across Scotland and Northern England. Rain/sleet in the South.

December: Coming Soon!

Edited by Barry95
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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

AWT'S Autumn 2012 Forecast

SEPTEMBER ... quite warm (Wrong) and changeable (Yes) with good periods of both dry and wet (mostly wet) and windy autumnal weather (quite windy)

. Temperatures 0.0 to 1.0 above normal. (Wrong) CET 14.0C. Rainfall 110% in the north/west to 60% in the south east (dry in south east, wet in north england), spells of active atlantic weather (Yes). Sunshine 5-15% above normal (above normal sunshine).

Not a bad forecast for September, sunshine was above normal and there was some active atlantic and windy weather, clarity of temperatures and rainfall was a bit out.

OCTOBER ... warm start, cooler end and wet, windy and changeable at times. Temperatures 0.5C below to 0.75 above the normal. CET 10.8C. Rainfall 120% in the north west to 75% in the south east, depressions and showery precipitation bringing rainfall. Sunshine 5-10% above normal.

Once the month is over there would be more clarity about what this October was like overall, I'd say that we had a cool start in particulary and a mostly cool month, brief warmer spell in the south around 2/3rds in and a colder end, settled for periods and brief spells of unsettled atlantic weather in the north in particular, showery start. Temperatures look like coming in below average. Sunshine remains to be seen.

NOVEMBER ... cool and mild spells, average overall and quite wet and windy. Temperatures 0.5C below to 0.5C above normal. CET 7.1C. Rainfall 110% in western and northern areas to 70% in the south and east. Sunshine 0-10% above normal.

I feel fairly happy about the November forecast at the moment, probably would have temperatures a little milder than the average.

For the winter forecast and beyond I'd like to alter the way I'll do seasonal forecasts:

1) Keep the current format on the first publish

2) At the seem time of the publishing of the seasonal forecast, put more emphasis on a seperate monthly forecast for the first month of the new season.

3) A month later, a monthly forecast for the second month, and a month later a forecast for the final month.

4) Come review, the initial seasonal forecast and each of the monthly forecasts should be reviewed.

My thoughts for November points towards a fairly typical and normal November, largely unsettled with low pressure systems crossing the British Isles regulary, possibly followed by some brief cooler/showery or calm, cloudy and/or sunny interludes, temperatures quite close to normal, leaning towards warmer than normal but some brief chilly interludes can't be ruled out. Rainfall should be above average and sunshine close to/or slightly below the average.

My thoughts are that December could start off with a normal, unsettled patter with temperatures mostly close to or above the average, regular low pressure systems bringing higher than average rainfall totals, possibly a brief interlude of cooler, crisp conditions via high pressure and some brief cooler and showery, possibly wintry precipitation could be possible in the north, whether this mostly zonal pattern could see out the month is remains to be seen and it's far too early to discuss that as the developments between now and the end of the month are really crucial and could change things. I'm looking forward to seeing what the weather throws at us during the coming weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Last year the research output showed the coldest part of the winter to be mid-January to early February and I predicted a cold to mild transition in February. Except for the late onset of the cold, last winter's forecast fared reasonably well (in Dec and Feb mostly, Jan was the problem month). So this is not a copy but I have added a few new research factors since last year's output and back-casting I noticed a slight improvement in the model relative to the January outcome.

We are always on that "knife edge" for winter patterns extending into the UK and Ireland, last year there was a more pronounced gradient from east to west than is normally the case from climatology. This year the signal for February looks stronger to me and also the theoretical reasoning places the core of cold to the north rather than east so it should have a better chance of extending all the way west through various regions.

From this output, I would be very surprised if this winter did not produce at least a reasonable amount of winter weather, for me the main question now is whether it goes into the record books or just turns out fairly good like 2009-10. By fairly good, of course I mean fairly bad for normal folks.

Hi Roger

Your method lends to the rule that your outlook generally does not change, however, the point re low ice anomaly. There is a very rapid repair going on up there and was wondering if that would alter the path of 'early' winter?

Ps yes it'll be remembered for more than 09/10

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Fred (and other readers) ...

I have recently upgraded my research model with about a 10-15 per cent expansion of factors. Now busy testing analogue years with modified versions of the new model (this takes a bit of time as I have to recalculate using only past data for those years as well as all data, then draw conclusions). Have not seen anything to cause specific concern yet for stated forecast. Ice anomaly situation not likely to change my forecast as retrograde index low after 1 Dec to about 20 Jan. There is a minor peak around 13-17 Nov which may time a brief wintry turn. December was looking up and down around normal in the original outlook, will stick with that for now. January was looking mild and stormy to begin, perhaps mild/dry mid-month then cold/wet to finish. February already had a strong negative index and looking at the new factors can see them trending that way also.

Northern max now right at lunar apogee and southern max at perigee -- this is weakly correlated with higher variability in data over long term. Also tends to mean (for winter) strongest storms at new moon but with secondary peaks before S/N max would tend to indicate a 13-14 day oscillation in storminess of a bimodal type, stronger of the peaks in a sequence like mid-Dec, 12th Jan, 10th Feb, weaker peaks 26 Dec, 23 Jan, 20 Feb (more for illustration than specific dates). You could time the more settled periods between those bimodal active peaks. Then vary the same curve by stated monthly temp anomalies to get a sense of expected temp variations (always higher at stormy peaks relative to trend curve which should run N/N to +ve then -ve. When I'm done revising the forecast scenario I will crank out a graph to illustrate. This model is beginning to generate test case back-casts with better amplitude than before as more variables are added, and that's encouraging because some of the back cast years show some good correlations now.

The El Nino looks like it might want to make a seasonal secondary appearance and that may lengthen hemispheric wavelengths and reduce blocking a bit against consensus of all LRFs. Would advise caution on any pre-February cold scenarios of more than a degree or longer than a week (relative to UK) because I have a hunch that a lot of other approaches will be working from flawed ENSO conjectures. My technique assumes ENSO to be co-predicted and thus ignores outside ENSO predictions.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Fred (and other readers) ...

I have recently upgraded my research model with about a 10-15 per cent expansion of factors. Now busy testing analogue years with modified versions of the new model (this takes a bit of time as I have to recalculate using only past data for those years as well as all data, then draw conclusions). Have not seen anything to cause specific concern yet for stated forecast. Ice anomaly situation not likely to change my forecast as retrograde index low after 1 Dec to about 20 Jan. There is a minor peak around 13-17 Nov which may time a brief wintry turn. December was looking up and down around normal in the original outlook, will stick with that for now. January was looking mild and stormy to begin, perhaps mild/dry mid-month then cold/wet to finish. February already had a strong negative index and looking at the new factors can see them trending that way also.

Northern max now right at lunar apogee and southern max at perigee -- this is weakly correlated with higher variability in data over long term. Also tends to mean (for winter) strongest storms at new moon but with secondary peaks before S/N max would tend to indicate a 13-14 day oscillation in storminess of a bimodal type, stronger of the peaks in a sequence like mid-Dec, 12th Jan, 10th Feb, weaker peaks 26 Dec, 23 Jan, 20 Feb (more for illustration than specific dates). You could time the more settled periods between those bimodal active peaks. Then vary the same curve by stated monthly temp anomalies to get a sense of expected temp variations (always higher at stormy peaks relative to trend curve which should run N/N to +ve then -ve. When I'm done revising the forecast scenario I will crank out a graph to illustrate. This model is beginning to generate test case back-casts with better amplitude than before as more variables are added, and that's encouraging because some of the back cast years show some good correlations now.

The El Nino looks like it might want to make a seasonal secondary appearance and that may lengthen hemispheric wavelengths and reduce blocking a bit against consensus of all LRFs. Would advise caution on any pre-February cold scenarios of more than a degree or longer than a week (relative to UK) because I have a hunch that a lot of other approaches will be working from flawed ENSO conjectures. My technique assumes ENSO to be co-predicted and thus ignores outside ENSO predictions.

Good luck with the forecast Roger, but from a personal selfish point of view I hope your wrong due to me not being a great fan of late cold spells. I know 47 brought us our snowiest winter on record, but the odds of such an event happening again are remote too say the least. I'm still having therapy for last winters non event IMBY Roger, good luck still all the same.
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Thanks Roger, my thumb of rule looks programmed into your outlook fortunately, that is that cold and a cold set up must be in place or AT LEAST iminent during the last week or so of Jan for a meaningful prolonged February cold spell to take hold. I am delaying this year as December is a tough call, it could be quite cold or mild in my books. It seems like sitting on fence but come mid Nov I'll take the plunge,

I agree very much re Feb...

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

My output supports greatest chance of a December cold or snow event (if any) in the period 12th to 18th ... the Christmas period output suggests warm advection combined with higher storminess, so one or two deep lows moving ENE across central then northern regions with phase change type events for some northern regions. Reading between the lines this would also suggest a cold high gradually moderating in the days before Christmas, the unsettled period would be just starting 24-25 Dec in this scenario.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Totally agree with mild/warm end to November, in fact it looks remakably so, rugby shirt weather for the autumn rugby internationals? I am getting more and more convinced of the 'descending' winter scenario. I think we're going to get a block in the 'wrong' place later in he month bringing unusual temps up from southern quadrant.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Totally agree with mild/warm end to November, in fact it looks remakably so, rugby shirt weather for the autumn rugby internationals? I am getting more and more convinced of the 'descending' winter scenario. I think we're going to get a block in the 'wrong' place later in he month bringing unusual temps up from southern quadrant.

BFTP

Seems to go against GP's latest thoughts though Fred - unless i've misinterpreted his post incorrectly.

Interesting times ahead indeed.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Seems to go against GP's latest thoughts though Fred - unless i've misinterpreted his post incorrectly.

Interesting times ahead indeed.

Yes I have just read GPs thoughts and I hope he's right, I think we'll be blocked in the wrong way.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Now we are in November, I suspect we will start to see a number of members winter forecasts appearing in the coming days and weeks.. I hope members remember to use this thread for such forecasts - however, I think we might need to start a new thread titled 'winter 2012/13 forecasts', to make it stand out more..

I'll await people's thoughts on this.

One thing I'd like to hear about from more experienced members is the expected ENSO signals for the coming winter. I'm led to believe ENSO is likely to be near neutral for much of the winter perhaps becoming weak-moderate El Nino in time. It would be good if someone could post what the ENSO state was in recent winters.. I know it is only one factor but aren't neutral ENSO winters more likely to produce a colder winter than moderate- strong El Nino and La Nina type winters, mind 2009/10 saw a very strong El Nino, but other factors overrode it, whilst other strong El Nino winters such as 97/98 were very mild indeed. Last winter saw a moderate-strong La Nina, which produced a mild winter.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Alan Huffman has released his winter forecast here, ENSO used for analogs within this..

http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-2012-13-forecast-part-1

ENSO, PDO, QBO, NAO, AO, Atlantic SSTs included. Part 2 is linked at the end of part 1.

No hope casting here just calling it as he sees it with a very candid admission of how it could go as a 'bust' . Interesting reading.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Out of interest, NOAA have given up the ghost looking for an El Nino this winter. Neutral conditiions now the call

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I am continuing to call for cold and possibly severe cold in February with onset in late January. So out of interest, I took the daily CET values in a research file and calculated daily averages for the winters with the 14 coldest Februaries to see what sort of early signals were on display. On the average, the Novembers of these winters averaged 6.3 and the Decembers 4.3, so that there was no strong signal of cold before January. Some days were considerably above normal in this period, for example 24 Nov was 6.9, and 14 Dec was 5.9 on average.

The data set show a decline around New Years and the average January associated with these 14 coldest Februaries averaged 1.4 with sub-freezing averages setting in on 24 Jan. The average of the 14 cold February cases was -0.3 C. The coldest day in the series was 14 Feb at -1.7 C.

Now although my model-based prediction shows a mild January followed by a cold February, this is an unusual combination and given the strength of the cold signal, I should hedge that by saying that any early mild spells could be cancelled out by later cold spells on the way towards a cold February. We would be in almost uncharted waters to see a combination like (6,0) for the first two monthly CET values. The years that came closest to this sort of reversal since the Maunder provided a couple of good examples were 1902, 1956, 1969 and 1986. January could be described as near normal rather than mild in most of these cases, but in 1969 (where Jan was 5.5) there was an extreme reversal, from 9.1 C in the week of 21-27 Jan to -1.8 in the week of 13-19 Feb.

Anyone pondering these stats should of course keep in mind that all years mentioned refer to Jan and Feb, the year we are now in corresponds to the year before all the years cited.

The general conclusion is that if my research model is picking up an accurate "read" on the winter, we should expect some big ups and downs and not get too discouraged about any blocking mild patterns between now and mid to late January as these are almost implied by the cold February signal. We could break into the cold early as in 1894-95, or late as in the above examples. Last winter demonstrated that a strong signal has to be blended into the "modern climate" and that even when Europe is generally in an extreme winter pattern this can have difficulty extending all the way west to some parts of the UK and certainly Ireland which almost escaped the whole episode. I have the impression from looking at analogues that this winter's severe cold in Europe might be sourced a bit further north which will help the chances of getting it further west into Britain and Ireland.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

daily star sunday reporting that the met office has already briefed the goverment and roads agencies to be ready for a cold and below average winter and the cold is likely to start from end of this month

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
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