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A Winter's Tale

The Seasonal Forecast Thread

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5 hours ago, knocker said:

 

Was hoping that warmth in the North Pacific would do one soon.  No such luck on that chart!

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Thus far the pM is of disappointment, so as caveated it’s gales and rain.  It’s absolutely howling outside now, very strong gusts, it was this morning too with gate den furniture blown all over the garden.  So happy with the peak energy period we are in. Another is for Christmas week, worth watching the developing feature on GFS as we approach Christmas Day, I think an awful lot of precip with strong widespread gales.

 

BFTP

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On 17/11/2019 at 23:45, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

WINTER 2019/20 

 

What may this winter bring.  As you know I base my forecasts on the primary solar forcing of the cycles of the sun, the magnetic field effect modulated by the lunar gravitational pull.   

In 2009/10 and 2010/11 winters we saw incredible cold and snowy spells.  This was at Schwabe solar minima between cycle 23 and 24.  Sunspot count was as follows 

2007 – 152 spotless days 

2008 – 268 spotless days 

2009 – 260 spotless days 

2008/9 winter was not a cold one 

As cycles are generally 11 years long I think we are at the position of 2008.  Current sunspot run in this minima between cycles 24 and 25 

2018 – 221 spotless days 

2019 – currently at 238 spotless days and the sun is currently blank with 46 days still to go.  Will we exceed 268?  It’s up for grabs that is for sure....time will tell.  I might be wrong and we might be at the same spot now as 2009 and not 2008.   If so then this minima isn’t looking as deep so we’d have to include 2017 which ran at 104 spotless days.  So my comparison looks like this 

2007 – 152 v 2018 – 221 

2008 – 268 v 2019 currently at 238 and counting 

If we are at same place as 2008 then this is the comparison 

2007 – 152 v 2017 – 104 

2008 –268 v 2018 – 221 

2009 – 260 v 2019 currently 238 and counting 

 

Factors I’m looking at 

So, could this be important?  It could be and as we know the deep minimas do appear to bring northen blocking, a meridional and a southerly tracking jetstream.  Already Nov is nicely below average with a very meridional jetstream.   

We have now seen that October was 5th in snow cover league which was some going considering the rapid expanse in the last week.  Added, Nov now the snowiest on record. 

Arctic ice was very very low in relation to the ‘recorded’ mean but as highlighted by MIA on the appropriate thread we have had a very notable, sit up and look rapid refreeze up there. Also the lack of refreeze in Chukchi Sea may support ridging in that region.  MIA also made a point re SSTs this side of the NH.  Cold blob to our west and cold going up Norway round Lapland and Finland to our N and NE.  This would make any northerly or NE’ly have much more bite with less moderation of uppers.  We have seen incredible (at times) record cold surges being recorded with early snowfall being recorded widely.   

We still have a disconnect between strat and Trop and are descending towards eQBO 

 

So is this the winter to be a 20th century Great matcher, (in 2018 I touted one of the next 3 2018/9, 2019/20, 2020/21 will be).  It wasn’t last winter so it has to be this year or next winter for me to be correct.   

So here we go, this winter has a real chance.  November has behaved very well to my thoughts and indeed is looking to be cooler than I thought with the jet digging further south.  My concern has been re December that I’ll looking for pM and at times aM air to be the main feature (basically a lot of northerly winds with a displaced PV over Scandinavia.  The issue in past is how far south the cold will push and how much mixing out of the cold will there be it being maritime air.  Well the SSTs imo favour that the cold should be quite punchy.  

Rest of November, another southerly tracking LP to come before we see HP have greater influence/build over us from the Atlantic cross us to the north and to likely to slip away east with a less cold period last week of the month before we see what I think will develop for Dec at months end. 

 

December – The way Nov has and is panning out I am now edging towards cold and at times snowy conditions for whole of UK and Ireland and not just far North Scotland and NI. 

From very end of Nov I think we’ll see a PV displacement to set up shop to our NE driving down at times arctic air over the whole of the UK.  The cold will be of significance with at times secondary LPs coming at us on NW/SW axis off the Atlantic bumping in to very cold air.  I’m anticipating a very snowy at times December with Northerly Quadrant flow generally dominating for the month.  Periods for me of potential note for disruptive weather 2nd week up to midmonth and last week of December.  If it’s cold then snow and gales likely issue, if not cold enough then very heavy rain and gales.... hedging bets as I know how disappointing northerly flow can be for southern parts. 

However, we could be looking at a month here of memory with potential of memorable cold and snow periods 

January – I’m really up in the air on this.  Initially I think first week continues the theme of December, another very disruptive week of (hopfully) snow but disruption through precip and wind.  However, I think HP will then develop and dominate most of the month.  Its where it positions itself will be all important.  I’m currently of the thought it will be over us ie mid lat blocking and we’ll see cold nights but with daytime temps gradually rising.  However, slight adjustments could see real cold easterlies or a drab and not very cold S to SE’ly flow. 

 

February – Continues HP them with potential cold easterly and southerly tracking LP during 2nd week but more norm temps if not mild at times....stubborn HP in wrong place. 

 

Alternative to this is the HP being bang on in right place and bitterly cold.......but for me a front loaded winter and a disappointing last half.....but very much open to change as that is on a fine edge. 

 

BFTP 

Looks, to me, as if you most definitely were forecasting a front-loaded winter, Fred...? Please forgive me, if I've misunderstood?

Edited by Ed Stone

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks, to me, as if you most definitely were forecasting a front-loaded winter, Fred...? Please forgive me, if I've misunderstood?

 

Periods for me of potential note for disruptive weather 2nd week up to midmonth and last week of December.  If it’s cold then snow and galeslikely issue, if not cold enough then veryheavy rain and gales.... hedging bets as Iknow how disappointing northerly flow canbe for southern parts. 

 

Pete, yes I was and am....and this dross may be all we have and a very poor winter for cold in the offing.....but plenty in there to highlight that the cold may very well not penetrate ....as per above.  Glad you highlighted it

 

BFTP

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BFTP mentioned high energy peaks this winter. My research indicates the January full and new moon periods have the strongest peaks so would add that stormy conditions seem even more likely with those (around 9th-11th and 23rd-25th) than in December. I am maintaining the earlier outlook calling for a gradual increase in storminess through the winter to about early February before some relaxation in the pattern by late February. Also sticking to the idea that while it may resemble 2013-14, some colder intervals could develop in more of a battleground scenario at times. So that would mean similar outcomes in the south to 2013-14 but snowier episodes in northern Britain perhaps sometimes including NI, parts of north Wales and central England. 

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15 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

BFTP mentioned high energy peaks this winter. My research indicates the January full and new moon periods have the strongest peaks so would add that stormy conditions seem even more likely with those (around 9th-11th and 23rd-25th) than in December. I am maintaining the earlier outlook calling for a gradual increase in storminess through the winter to about early February before some relaxation in the pattern by late February. Also sticking to the idea that while it may resemble 2013-14, some colder intervals could develop in more of a battleground scenario at times. So that would mean similar outcomes in the south to 2013-14 but snowier episodes in northern Britain perhaps sometimes including NI, parts of north Wales and central England. 

I see the storminess in early Jan Roger but I feel the HP syndrome/ slug will deflect the 23-25 Jan......for me Christmas is lively and up for grabs...rapid rise of HP after Boxing Day...but transient as in early Jan another piling in of LP....,but could be good with good positioning of a ‘cold’ HP

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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15 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Also sticking to the idea that while it may resemble 2013-14, some colder intervals could develop in more of a battleground scenario at times. So that would mean similar outcomes in the south to 2013-14 but snowier episodes in northern Britain perhaps sometimes including NI, parts of north Wales and central England. 

May as well give up in the south if that comes off!  Although, with this type of pattern, would it take much adjustment for the possibility of some marginal snow events in southern areas? Terrible news for those flooded in 2013/14, though!

Edited by Don

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