The Seasonal Forecast Thread

[Gael_Force]

ECM forecast jet stream chart shows a very typical low solar meridional pattern. The archives show a tendency for the ridging to be into Greenland but it is easy to see the influence on UK temperatures by little differences in the wave length. Pity we don't have long temp records for further east as I'm sure the solar effect would be more visible than in the CET series.

Edited November 25, 2019 by Gael_Force

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So with 33 days to go only 18 need to be spotless to exceed 2008.  Every chance it will and this solar minima is a really deep one.  NH pattern definitely in a cold friendly  state, huge HLB not needed, PV perturbed and displaced and meridional jetstream will work.  
I’m keeping my eye on 2nd week to mid month....models showing big potential...but must keep a watch as it’s still FI

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

20 days spotless, 256 total.  Will we exceed 2008?  I think so, just 13 more needed.  Jetstream going wild currently with incredible meandering and southward push projected....imo in total response to the current solar state now in deep minima.  With eQBO in place for next winter.......Mouth watering.

Full moon December 12th.....projected very disruptive weather around then.....let’s see if it holds out around that target period

 

BFTP 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

20 days spotless, 256 total.  Will we exceed 2008?  I think so, just 13 more needed.  Jetstream going wild currently with incredible meandering and southward push projected....imo in total response to the current solar state now in deep minima.  With eQBO in place for next winter.......Mouth watering.

Full moon December 12th.....projected very disruptive weather around then.....let’s see if it holds out around that target period

 

BFTP 

My only worry is i wished we could just have full e-qbo the whole winter where as we are in a half half situation last / this and possibly next year.

[summer blizzard]

On the solar point there may only be a weak winter link overall but the signal for top 20 and top 10 spotless years is quite strong.

Looking at the top 10 years for example..

December: 20% at 5.6C or above, 50% at 3.6C or below, 30% between

January: 50% at 3.4C or below, 50% at 3.5-5.3C (none actually warmer than 4.7C)

February: 20% at 5.4C or above, 40% at 3.4C or below, 40% between.

Top ten spotless years strongly favour winters close to or below the 1981-2010 average.

[Don]

8 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

My only worry is i wished we could just have full e-qbo the whole winter where as we are in a half half situation last / this and possibly next year.

If I understand correctly, the E-QBO typically lasts longer than the W-QBO?  If that's the case we could be in the full E-QBO next winter, with perhaps a transition to westerly not starting until spring 2021?

Edited December 3, 2019 by Don

[Don]

32 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

On the solar point there may only be a weak winter link overall but the signal for top 20 and top 10 spotless years is quite strong.

Looking at the top 10 years for example..

December: 20% at 5.6C or above, 50% at 3.6C or below, 30% between

January: 50% at 3.4C or below, 50% at 3.5-5.3C (none actually warmer than 4.7C)

February: 20% at 5.4C or above, 40% at 3.4C or below, 40% between.

Top ten spotless years strongly favour winters close to or below the 1981-2010 average.

So you still have the same ideas for later this winter, summer blizzard?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Don said:

If I understand correctly, the E-QBO typically lasts longer than the W-QBO?  If that's the case we could be in the full E-QBO next winter, with perhaps a transition to westerly not starting until spring 2021?

Right, i know it isn't exactly 24 months hence it is quasi but didn't know that the E lasts longer - good point then.

[Don]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Right, i know it isn't exactly 24 months hence it is quasi but didn't know that the E lasts longer - good point then.

Don't quote me on it, though!  I believe I heard this on one of Gavs Weather Vids winter updates.

[knocker]

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

 

January BBQ anyone?!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, Don said:

January BBQ anyone?!

It is my worry and I think likely.....could be a good golf winter month....

BFTP

[Don]

20 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It is my worry and I think likely.....could be a good golf winter month....

BFTP

A good golf summer month!
So, you also feel January will be poor for snow?

Edited December 7, 2019 by Don

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

56 minutes ago, Don said:

A good golf summer month!
So, you also feel January will be poor for snow?

Yes, HP dominated but in ‘wrong’ place for snow so mild after very lively first week....

BFTP, 

[Don]

11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes, HP dominated but in ‘wrong’ place for snow so mild after very lively first week....

BFTP, 

This winter really does not have much going for it (cold wise) does it?!  Perhaps next year will be more promising, hopefully being in an E-QBO still, more forcing from ENSO, better ocean temperature profiles and solar activity to name a few?

Edited December 7, 2019 by Don

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

This winter really does not have much going for it (cold wise) does it?!  Perhaps next year will be more promising, hopefully being in an E-QBO still, more forcing from ENSO, better ocean temperature profiles and solar activity to name a few?

My LRF was for northerly pM air to dominate this month and was concerned how northerly blasts do let is down a lot of the time. Nov increased my anticipation of the pM turning aM shots and being potent....hence my front loaded winter.....I worry now for the rest of winter unless the northerly shots intensify in cold depth.....still tome for this to happen. 

 

BFTP 

[MP-R]

I’d take big pressure in January over Atlantic crud. The latter is very much an autumn weather type which indeed has graced most of the autumn just gone (or still ongoing lol). 
 

It’s to be expected that January and February are a lot drier than October to December but it would be really nice to get some seasonal anticyclonic conditions or a 2008/9 style inversion if we can’t get a cold snowy spell. 
 

I think the worst outcome would be a mild winter followed by a cold spring. I think I’d actually consider emigrating if that happens lol.

[Don]

 

10 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I think the worst outcome would be a mild winter followed by a cold spring. I think I’d actually consider emigrating if that happens lol.

That would be the best outcome for me, if we have a mild winter!  A cold spring would at least deliver some short lived wintry shots, which would be better than nowt after a snowless winter!

Edited December 7, 2019 by Don

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

 

That would be the best outcome for me, if we have a mild winter!  A cold spring would at least deliver short lived wintry shots which would be better than nowt after a snowless winter!

Each to their own I guess. I find cold weather in spring after a mild winter as much of a kick in the teeth as summer synoptics  in autumn after a dire summer. Mild winters also tend to bring duller and wetter conditions so by spring I’m dying for some sun, which given the comparative sun strength to summer in reverse, is beautiful with some warmth.

Any snow in spring is ok but never hangs around. Even the ‘epic’ April 2008 snow was gone by midday.

[Don]

Just now, MP-R said:

Each to their own I guess. I find cold weather in spring after a mild winter as much of a kick in the teeth as summer synoptics  in autumn after a dire summer. Mild winters also tend to bring duller and wetter conditions so by spring I’m dying for some sun, which given the comparative sun strength to summer in reverse, is beautiful with some warmth.

Any snow in spring is ok but never hangs around. Even the ‘epic’ April 2008 snow was gone by midday.

Of course, although colder springs could potentially be sunnier than average, too.  Spring snow does tend to be short lived, unless you get an exceptional month like March 2013 or 2018, which are pretty rare.  However, I would rather have short lived snow than none, even if I have to get up early to enjoy it!

[Don]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It is my worry and I think likely.....could be a good golf winter month....

BFTP

We could all come to yours for a January BBQ, Blast?!

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Don said:

 

That would be the best outcome for me, if we have a mild winter!  A cold spring would at least deliver some short lived wintry shots, which would be better than nowt after a snowless winter!

If it’s early March, but I really don’t like it when winter tends to return or linger into late March and April. I long for warmer sunnier days by that time. 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

If it’s early March, but I really don’t like it when winter tends to return or linger into late March and April. I long for warmer sunnier days by that time. 

Well, after early March any snow is often short lived, but I like to see snow anytime.  However, I do understand your point.

[Sunny76]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Well, after early March any snow is often short lived, but I like to see snow anytime.  However, I do understand your point.

I understand the appreciation for some snow, but by mid March, post St Paddy’s Day, I tend to see that as the transitional period from it still feeling like winter at times, to actually feeling like spring has started. The mornings and nights are still cold though, and this was the case even after the very mild second half of Feb 2019, the evenings were still cold. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I understand the appreciation for some snow, but by mid March, post St Paddy’s Day, I tend to see that as the transitional period from it still feeling like winter at times, to actually feeling like spring has started. The mornings and nights are still cold though, and this was the case even after the very mild second half of Feb 2019, the evenings were still cold. 

Yes, late February this year was strange.  Remember waking up to a frost but temperatures soared to 21C during the afternoon!  Mid February 1998 was similar but the main difference was the less diurnal temperature range, plus the temperature did not quite exceed 20C.

Edited December 7, 2019 by Don