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The Seasonal Forecast Thread


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2nd update from the weather outlook

Quote

 

Seasonal models

At this early stage most of the long range computer models are suggesting a milder than average winter in the UK.

Summary

It is too early for a clear signal for winter 2019/20 to emerge. Recent climatology favours milder conditions as do most of the seasonal forecasts models. However not all of the background signals offer support for this scenario. 

At this stage the TWO view is the balance of evidence weakly supports a milder than average winter.

 

Full thoughts here: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=4993&title=UK+winter+2019%2f20

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41 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The first thoughts in July suggested the dice was loaded slightly towards an average/colder winter.  Now it has swung towards a slight bias towards a milder outlook.  Obviously still very early days, but the current signs are not good for those seeking a cold and snowy winter.

Edited by Don
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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.55efa68fc7e00771f23b4f92de7d07b2.png

Interesting that some ensemble members have a record weak zonal windspeeds developing - possibly a result of northern blocking starting to show up on the model runs?? At this time of year it probably doesn't mean much, but fascinating none the less!

With the soi in such a negative el nino atmospheric set up. Increased disruption to the polar vortex could continue if I remember right October was fine but November became unsettled with heights eventually pulling north east then retrograde to Greenland where heights had nice time setting up shop. 1060mb Greenland heights prove there blocking influence definitely disrupts vortex formation. Perhaps first Arctic blast setting up sometime in October. Low solar activity amongst other options certainly would lean towards a more wintry winter compared to the last few years. Strong support has also shown in other years for blocking and epically failed but this year has more factors on side for more seasonal weather than not. 

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2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

With the soi in such a negative el nino atmospheric set up. Increased disruption to the polar vortex could continue if I remember right October was fine but November became unsettled with heights eventually pulling north east then retrograde to Greenland where heights had nice time setting up shop. 1060mb Greenland heights prove there blocking influence definitely disrupts vortex formation. Perhaps first Arctic blast setting up sometime in October. Low solar activity amongst other options certainly would lean towards a more wintry winter compared to the last few years. Strong support has also shown in other years for blocking and epically failed but this year has more factors on side for more seasonal weather than not. 

The positive PDO is what will probably scupper winter this year.

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Another kick in the teeth for those seeking a cold winter this year from the CFSv2.  Really couldn't be any worse and would even make 2015/16 look chilly!  Only one run but sadly it has strong support from the GLOSEA5 and a fair amount from the ECMWF, too, so cannot be ignored........

Edited by Don
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13 minutes ago, Don said:

Another kick in the teeth for those seeking a cold winter this year from the CFSv2.  Really couldn't be any worse and would even make 2015/16 look chilly!  Only one run but sadly it has strong support from the GLOSEA5 and a fair amount from the ECMWF, too, so cannot be ignored........

We've been invited to a wedding in Estonia in December so more of a likelihood of seeing the white stuff over there during our weekend stop over....I hope.

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20 minutes ago, Don said:

Another kick in the teeth for those seeking a cold winter this year from the CFSv2.  Really couldn't be any worse and would even make 2015/16 look chilly!  Only one run but sadly it has strong support from the GLOSEA5 and a fair amount from the ECMWF, too, so cannot be ignored........

1. We're still in September. 

2. Since when have long range model forecasts been reliable?

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6 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

1. We're still in September. 

2. Since when have long range model forecasts been reliable?

No one's writing anything off. To be honest I'd rather it show mild then our expectations are a lot lower. Less of a disappointment if they come true.

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15 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

No one's writing anything off. To be honest I'd rather it show mild then our expectations are a lot lower. Less of a disappointment if they come true.

Indeed.  One positive this year is that we are not being led up the garden path with the models showing a cold/blocked scenario as they were this time last year.  Better to have low expectations than ending up disappointed!  That said, it does look rather grim at this early stage but always subject to change of course.  Need to see those North Eastern Pacific SST's significantly decrease during the next couple of months for a start!

Edited by Don
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If anyone, professional meteo or not, thinks they can predict the weather for 3 to 5 months in the future, for a set of islands situated in NW Europe with the Atlantic to its West, and a warm gulf stream very close by, then think again. 

My advice? Ignore the Winter forecasts, this far out. If we get to early December maybe take more notice, but mid-late Sept forecasts predicting for Jan/Feb for these islands?! Forget it!

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Nothing looks grim at this early stage! That's just utter nonsense ! Could we drop the winter is over theme because A D C D E and F don't look good, whereby G H J J K  L are looking good lol.

NOBODY KNOWS.... yet

It will snow,

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1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Nothing looks grim at this early stage! That's just utter nonsense ! Could we drop the winter is over theme because A D C D E and F don't look good, whereby G H J J K  L are looking good lol.

NOBODY KNOWS.... yet

It will snow,

No one has said winter is over and everyone is entitled to their opinion without being shot down!

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I've been led up the garden path so many times in the distant past by long range forecasts and people posting long range CFS charts that I've learned to ignore them. 

The furthest I look now is 7 days. Even that is pushing it sometimes.

This Winter is still all to play for as far as I'm concerned. 

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A seasonal Winter would be awesome, there's nothing worse than a mild wet winter when 10ºC is considered ''freezing'' and commercial buildings are hot enough to cultivate ''special'' plants. However, the sensible homeowner in me would prefer mild as it'll be cheaper on gas!

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6 hours ago, Stelmer said:

A seasonal Winter would be awesome, there's nothing worse than a mild wet winter when 10ºC is considered ''freezing'' and commercial buildings are hot enough to cultivate ''special'' plants. However, the sensible homeowner in me would prefer mild as it'll be cheaper on gas!

No, no - if you keep a nice thick 10" or more of snow on your roof, you end up with fabulous insulation! ? 

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Take a look at my fresh seasonal outlook. Looking at a +NAO in the models and a -NAO in some of the drivers.

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/09/27/late-september-northern-hemisphere-2019-20-winter-outlook/

  1. Early, good season for Japan, Eastern US and Europe.
  2. A decent season for California, a poor season for the PNW, Colorado slightly above average perhaps.
  3. Early Siberian High development, with a potential SSW later in the season.
  4. Nina-esque atmosphere, cool neutral-weak oceanic La Nina.

 

Edited by Snowy Hibbo
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3 hours ago, Jamesjane said:

What is this...... We live in the UK, What is the forecast for us..You have mentioned every continent but have left out the main protagonist

Chill out. The UK could see a -NAO pattern that would bring a colder winter for it and the rest of Europe. I did discuss Europe in the outlook. 

It explored the different model solutions heading towards a winter +NAO, and then I explained why this may not be the case.

Edited by Blessed Weather
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For example, have a look at this -AAM analog I used.

96A9A4AB-4032-4C2C-A4BE-58789E6CBF87.thumb.jpeg.c8f32e4e2e28c5589d40d06bd86a44d6.jpeg

Showing some potential for a -NAO/Greenland block, with the trough lying over Europe, but still with potential for a cold winter for the UK. Though this is just one driver/idea.

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Well here we are folks here is the 5TH winter 2019 2020 update from gavsweathervids and I do agree with some of the posts it's good to see some seasonal weather. Link to winter 2019 2020 update. 

 

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If anyone is interested in the models and process used by the Met Office to produce their Seasonal Forecasts, I've just placed an overview in the Learning Area. This looks at their Unified Model system which includes Glosea5 and the key variables and teleconnections modeled. There are also links to further reading including a short but interesting article by Imperial College London titled: The challenge of seasonal weather prediction. Here's the link to my overview:

 

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