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The Seasonal Forecast Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's a sure sign that the silly season is fast approaching, when models start to stonk and scream!:D

You bettya, that's what most are here for!

I prefer December snow to January/February as more likely to last due to weaker and less sun, obviously, there are the festive season implications too and with two young lads, a white Christmas would be fantastic.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
46 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

You bettya, that's what most are here for!

I prefer December snow to January/February as more likely to last due to weaker and less sun, obviously, there are the festive season implications too and with two young lads, a white Christmas would be fantastic.

I wholeheartedly agree about December snow, you can't beat the sensation where the landscape changes overnight from grey dull to pure white. Having been lucky enough to grow up in a reasonably snowy country(Slovakia), December was always enjoyable, as we also have the St.Nicolaus day on 6th of December,where we as children got sweats and treats  also the Christmas markets are around all month with all those Mulled Wine continental flavours. Nothing beats December snow, I generally loose interest by the end of January these days. Now going way off topic.

Bratislava.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

GloSea5 update is out:

2cat_20171001_z500_months35_global_deter

In a word, atrocious, unless relentless bowling ball depressions from the west are your thing. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
49 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

GloSea5 update is out:

2cat_20171001_z500_months35_global_deter

In a word, atrocious, unless relentless bowling ball depressions from the west are your thing. 

 

No suprise really.

Looks dreadful to be fair with positive anoms over Europe and negative anoms over Iceland, in short, a very postive NAO .

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

As that model is one of the best long range models or even the best model ,surely it cant be completly wrong. If we get any decent cold snaps/spells this yr i will be surprised.

Edited by sundog
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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
4 hours ago, Yarmy said:

GloSea5 update is out:

2cat_20171001_z500_months35_global_deter

In a word, atrocious, unless relentless bowling ball depressions from the west are your thing. 

 

Looks dreadful to be honest, oh well at least I've not got high hopes for this winter. Better than dangling a carrot and then it doesn't happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Nice trend developing in the mid to long range on the model output. Would be confident in seeing this repeated during the winter months. Good sign Imho.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
7 hours ago, Yarmy said:

GloSea5 update is out:

2cat_20171001_z500_months35_global_deter

In a word, atrocious, unless relentless bowling ball depressions from the west are your thing. 

 

Don't worry, Darren Betts has had control of the levers these last few months. I hear John Hammond is taking over from next month so just watch the switch in November's  update :)

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

On a serious note though, I just cannot believe that we will have to endure such a mobile winter after the ultra mobile summer we have just suffered. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
23 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Looks dreadful to be honest, oh well at least I've not got high hopes for this winter. Better than dangling a carrot and then it doesn't happen.

I don't think I have ever been so pessimistic about the coming winter season.  Normally at this time I am looking forward to winter but not this year, it might as well be April!  However, on the plus side it's extremely unlikely that I will end up disappointed.  The only way is up.......

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
9 minutes ago, Don said:

I don't think I have ever been so pessimistic about the coming winter season.  Normally at this time I am looking forward to winter but not this year, it might as well be April!  However, on the plus side it's extremely unlikely that I will end up disappointed.  The only way is up.......

Can't quite work out if you have had a large dose of reverse psychology or you're just being downright defeatist. I can't believe people are already writing off this winter based on long term seasonal forecasts that in the past have been proven to be wrong much more often than they are correct.  

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
11 minutes ago, Don said:

I don't think I have ever been so pessimistic about the coming winter season.  Normally at this time I am looking forward to winter but not this year, it might as well be April!  However, on the plus side it's extremely unlikely that I will end up disappointed.  The only way is up.......

One positive I can think of is it can't be worse than Winter 13-14. In the 67 years of my life that was the most pathetic winter I can remember around here in Oldham, only 1 dusting of snow during an evening in February that was gone before morning. The following winter wasn't great but at least there was a measurable snow fall !

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

I think the chances of heavy snow this winter are very high especially on the hills of Scotland.Why because a few weeks ago Glencoe Mountain anounced that they were going to  raise hundreds of thousands of pounds to buy a Snow Factory capable of making hundreds of tonnes of snow at up to 25c to give them at least one run of snow throughout the season from Ist December to Ist May after last years lack of snow .The news in the last day that Cairngorm Mountain is also going to trial a Snow Factory for December and January now confirms that at least the Mountains of Scotland will get dumped on by the weather snow  gods.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
37 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Can't quite work out if you have had a large dose of reverse psychology or you're just being downright defeatist. I can't believe people are already writing off this winter based on long term seasonal forecasts that in the past have been proven to be wrong much more often than they are correct.  

Whilst part of it is definitely reverse psychology, the 'colder' period' from 2008 to 2013 is well behind us now and most winter's since have been stinkers with December 2015 being alarmingly mild.  After the initial promise of a front loaded cold winter last year, by mid-December it was clearly not going to happen.  I do indeed hope I'm wrong, but most early signs are pointing towards another mild winter, so for the time being I will not raise my hopes in any way.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
17 minutes ago, Don said:

Whilst part of it is definitely reverse psychology, the 'colder' period' from 2008 to 2013 is well behind us now and most winter's since have been stinkers with December 2015 being alarmingly mild.  After the initial promise of a front loaded cold winter last year, by mid-December it was clearly not going to happen.  I do indeed hope I'm wrong, but most early signs are pointing towards another mild winter, so for the time being I will not raise my hopes in any way.

Its a perfectly acceptable mindset Don.

I feel the same,it would be folly to say we cant a decent cold snap/spell in any given winter but the general trend is milder,and wetter. yuk!

PS i will approach winter hoping for something good but year in year out of Atlantic dross eventually depletes the optimism meter.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its a perfectly acceptable mindset Don.

I feel the same,it would be folly to say we cant a decent cold snap/spell in any given winter but the general trend is milder,and wetter. yuk!

PS i will approach winter hoping for something good but year in year out of Atlantic dross eventually depletes the optimism meter.

Well unless the AH does one and soon, then a mild and or/wet winter is inevitable. Funny how people praise the thing one minute and despise it the next.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

I am certainly more hopeful and confident of a colder winter. Who wouldnt be with an Easterly QBO and heading towards a solar minimum. No sign of the dreaded Euro high either! Think our colder weather will almost certainly come from the North. It will be brief and disappear again before returning. 

Reminds me of winter 83/84, but also 90/91. 

Winters Coming !!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

For those on Twitter, have a read of the winter forecast by griteater. It a u.s forecast but it's an interesting read nonetheless. 

Suggests a number of -AO/NAO phases, and a cheeky reference to 1962/3.  

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

GFS putting up very interesting synoptics in very deep FI.  HP to NW and displaced PV to NE.   Second half of Nov I am anticipating that type of development.  And on that when I did my brief early thoughts in the winter hopes thread.....those are how I see any cold spells we get will play out.  I Think this ‘northerlies’ don’t have the same bite theory will be tested and/or supported 

 

BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Things are developing nicely.  Snow in lowland favoured places on the cards for me.  If panning out then breakdown to more westerly flow turn of month.  Steady as she goes but support for cold spell  is gaining ground

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

QWell best look away if you do not want warm water being pured on your cold hopes>

UK Met latest model output carries on with the same version over the last few months, see below for link

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Of course it may be wrong but it is usually, not always of course, recent seasons not been totally out.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
33 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

QWell best look away if you do not want warm water being pured on your cold hopes>

UK Met latest model output carries on with the same version over the last few months, see below for link

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Of course it may be wrong but it is usually, not always of course, recent seasons not been totally out.

And that probably means an even more dyer pattern than it looks in Jan and Feb because that could well include a block for the first weeks of December, the only hope is I'm sure I read models don't model the QBO well, god knows why when even I can reasonably accurately predict the QBO, I would have thought the tropics is the easiest place to model, I wonder when the ECM Seasonal next comes out.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom

To be honest, I'm not too worried about what GLOSEA5 is predicting because (And correct me if I'm wrong!), but for Winter period last year, wasn't it  (And EC Seasonal Model) predicting a winter of HLB and cold for the UK?

Look how that winter panned out! :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Take what the Met say with a pinch of salt, that would be my advice. Mind you If they happen to be right then a pinch of salt for winter 17/18 would probably be about right.

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