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The Seasonal Forecast Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
28 minutes ago, Don said:

Yet another update that couldn't look any worse for a cold lover.  Have to laugh really!

At least the eastern seaboard of the US looks mild too this time. Fed up with them having all the fun. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, blizzard81 said:

At least the eastern seaboard of the US looks mild too this time. Fed up with them having all the fun. 

Why is the meto so adamant about the mild outlook. Do they not explain their reasonings anywhere on their site? I know they don't do an official forecast as such but it would be nice for them to back up their graphics with some form of wording and reasoning behind them. 

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1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Why is the meto so adamant about the mild outlook. Do they not explain their reasonings anywhere on their site? I know they don't do an official forecast as such but it would be nice for them to back up their graphics with some form of wording and reasoning behind them. 

It's easy to run for mild ,pretty much default setting :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
33 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Why is the meto so adamant about the mild outlook. Do they not explain their reasonings anywhere on their site? I know they don't do an official forecast as such but it would be nice for them to back up their graphics with some form of wording and reasoning behind them. 

It's just the average of a ton of ensemble runs from the GloSea5 model. There's no human input. In fact, they say this:

Raw data are displayed for use by international meteorological centres. This does not constitute a seasonal forecast for a given location.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, knocker said:

My cup runneth over

 

Hmm, there's a rather strong trend emerging from these long range model outlooks isn't there.  A long winter holiday to Canada might be a good idea for cold lovers this year.........

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

All hail the JAMSTEC seasonal update (via mad Joe Laminate Floor's twitter):

temp2.glob.DJF2018.1sep2017.gif

(Baseline for the anomaly is 1983-2006.)

160511_SCI_frustrated-squirrel.jpg.CROP.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
14 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

All hail the JAMSTEC seasonal update (via mad Joe Laminate Floor's twitter):

temp2.glob.DJF2018.1sep2017.gif

(Baseline for the anomaly is 1983-2006.)

160511_SCI_frustrated-squirrel.jpg.CROP.

 

Met office one for the same period (someones got the orange crayon out for this update)

456456.thumb.png.99eaf259d886f61dc9e53a2baf02dac9.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I am not sure where this fits best so ask that the team place it where they feel it is most appropriate.

The PDO etc from UK Met=well worth watching and listening to in my view

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/a-pacific-flip-triggers-the-end-of-the-recent-slowdown

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I seem to remember last year everything pointed to a very "Blocky" outlook, time after time and it never really materialised to our benefit (if like me you want cold and wintry in DJF). So to be quite honest, I'd rather a Mild picture was being painted now than a cold one. Plenty of time for change! Now roll on November, it's hard work trying to make conversation with the wife every evening for 6 months :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
On 9/19/2017 at 10:56, karlos1983 said:

I seem to remember last year everything pointed to a very "Blocky" outlook, time after time and it never really materialised to our benefit (if like me you want cold and wintry in DJF). So to be quite honest, I'd rather a Mild picture was being painted now than a cold one. Plenty of time for change! Now roll on November, it's hard work trying to make conversation with the wife every evening for 6 months :rofl:

But of course we know, if a mild outlook is shown, a mild outlook will prevail. That's how things work here in the UK remember.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
On 9/18/2017 at 08:08, Summer Sun said:

Met office one for the same period (someones got the orange crayon out for this update)

456456.thumb.png.99eaf259d886f61dc9e53a2baf02dac9.png

 

Looks like i live in the only part of the northern hemisphere forecast to below normal :cold::wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
29 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Looks like i live in the only part of the northern hemisphere forecast to below normal :cold::wallbash:

Yes, negative PNA which feels like the first time in a few years over there (assuming it actually happens, of course).

A -PNA can correlate with above average heights over Scandinavia too as seen below, but we'll probably end up with a euro slug instead.

PNA_NEGATIVE_1985.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Yes, negative PNA which feels like the first time in a few years over there (assuming it actually happens, of course).

A -PNA can correlate with above average heights over Scandinavia too as seen below, but we'll probably end up with a euro slug instead.

PNA_NEGATIVE_1985.gif

 

looks like winter 2010-11 in western Canada which was very snowy here..the snowiest for 40 years.

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe

This isn't meant to sound negative, moany or condescending but last year it was blocking all the way being forecast and it didn't materialise. The same excitement was squashed when the WOI index (or whatever it was called) didn't play out.  I look at them for a bit of fun but really don't take them as gospel in the slightest. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
17 hours ago, captaincroc said:

This isn't meant to sound negative, moany or condescending but last year it was blocking all the way being forecast and it didn't materialise. The same excitement was squashed when the WOI index (or whatever it was called) didn't play out.  I look at them for a bit of fun but really don't take them as gospel in the slightest. 

Well there was blocking...at times close to the UK or just to the south east which brought about numerous quiet damp days (here) some of them as we know fairly mild unfortunately for us the blocking which was mentioned (in October/November) should have been to the West/NW and North which didn't occur, a pretty nondescript winter on the whole.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

GloSea etc made a mess of it last year and judging by the ridiculous bias for warmth across the northern hemisphere this upcoming winter unless these updates change then I can see them making a pigs ear of it again. I doubt we will here anymore talk of the met being  able to predict winters in the UK a year in advance after last years failure and the extremely unlikely output from their models for this coming winter for the northern hemisphere as a whole.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Starting to work on a winter forecast, the first step is to identify best analogues from monthly averages January to October. I have used a mild 12.5 for October in this calculation. The calculation is the total of differences squared for each of the ten months so far this year. 

 

TOP THIRTY ANALOGUES 1659 to 2016

 

Rank __ Year, Sum Squares ___ Winter CET Means Nov to Mar following

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -NOV_DEC_JAN_FEB_MAR

_ 01 ___ 1822, 07.66 _________ 8.2 _ 1.6 _--0.1_ 3.1 _ 5.0

_ 02 ___ 2014, 11.72 _________ 8.6 _ 5.2 _ 4.4 _ 4.0 _ 6.4

_ 03 ___ 2000, 12.31 _________ 7.0 _ 5.8 _ 3.2 _ 4.4 _ 5.2

_ 04 ___ 1828, 12.40 _________ 7.4 _ 7.4 _ 0.3 _ 4.3 _ 4.3

_ 05 ___ 2009, 13.89 _________ 8.7 _ 3.1 _ 1.4 _ 2.8 _ 6.1

_ 06 ___ 1998, 13.91 _________ 6.2 _ 5.5 _ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 7.4

_ 07 ___ 1950, 14.64 _________ 5.7 _ 1.2 _ 3.9 _ 3.7 _ 4.1

_ 08 ___ 1706, 14.84 _________ 6.1 _ 4.7 _ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 5.0

_ 09 ___ 1957, 14.92 _________ 6.4 _ 4.5 _ 3,4 _ 4.7 _ 3.7

_ 10 ___ 1943, 15.14 _________ 6.3 _ 3.5 _ 5.8 _ 3.6 _ 5.2

_ 11 ___ 1831, 15.27 _________ 5.6 _ 5.8 _ 3.1 _ 3.4 _ 5.8

_ 12 ___ 1801, 15.53 _________ 4.8 _ 1.5 _ 1.6 _ 3.7 _ 5.6

_ 13 ___ 1960. 15.80 _________ 7.3 _ 3.9 _ 3.9 _ 6.9 _ 8.2

_ 14 ___ 2002, 15.97 _________ 8.5 _ 5.7 _ 4.5 _ 3.9 _ 7.5

_ 15 ___ 1961. 16.21 _________ 6.0 _ 2.2 _ 4.3 _ 4.4 _ 2.8

_ 16 ___ 1759, 16.42 _________ 5.1 _ 2.5 _ 1.9 _ 3.8 _ 6.6

_ 17 ___ 1999, 16.49 _________ 7.9 _ 5.0 _ 4.9 _ 6.3 _ 7.6

_ 18 ___ 1834, 16.68 _________ 6.7 _ 5.6 _ 2.9 _ 5.7 _ 5.8

_ 19 ___ 1781, 16.75 _________ 6.5 _ 5.4 _ 5.2 _ 1.9 _ 4.1

_ 20 ___ 1959, 16.79 _________ 7.1 _ 6.0 _ 3.8 _ 4.1 _ 6.4

_ 21 ___ 1775, 17.16 _________ 4.8 _ 4.5 _--1.6_ 3.8 _ 6.4

_ 22 ___ 1859, 17.31 _________ 4.8 _ 1.6 _ 3.5 _ 1.7 _ 4.7

_ 23 ___ 2005, 17.45 _________ 6.2 _ 4.4 _ 4.3 _ 3.7 _ 4.9

_ 24 ___ 1982, 17.51 _________ 8.0 _ 4.4 _ 6.7 _ 1.7 _ 6.4

_ 25 ___ 1989, 17.67 _________ 6.2 _ 4.9 _ 6.5 _ 7.3 _ 8.3

_ 26 ___ 1893, 17.75 _________ 5.2 _ 4.8 _ 3.4 _ 5.1 _ 6.7

_ 27 ___ 1994, 17.93 _________10,1 _ 6.4 _ 4.8 _ 6.5 _ 5.6

_ 28 ___ 1878, 17.95 _________ 3.5 _--0.3_--0,7_ 3.1 _ 4.7

_ 29 ___ 1967, 18.37 _________ 5.4 _ 4.2 _ 4.4 _ 1.9 _ 6.3

_ 30 ___ 1732, 18.46 _________ 6.3 _ 2.2 _ 6.9 _ 6.0 _ 5.9

Average of 30 analogues ______ 6.6 _ 4.1 _ 3,5 _ 4.0 _ 5.7

_______________________________________________________________

The averages suggest not much deviation from normal over the winters, but it can be seen that the analogues diverge into two sets, one with a cold theme and one with a mild theme. High variability seems to be more in play than usual in the winters after similar years to 2017. 

This is not meant to be a winter forecast, it is just a data set for use in creating a forecast. I will be looking at similar solar years within these cases, and trends over time. What does stand out is that analogues cluster around three periods -- one is in the Dalton and has some colder winters, one is around 1957 to 1962, and the third is more recent, in particular, 1998 to 2002. Perhaps it is not surprising to find a lot of analogues from the past 30 years of data (9, where the expected number at random is 2.5). However, the recent similarity is centered further back than the very recent past and closer to what many might consider the peak of the "milder winters" interval, so in reality, what we're getting from this set of analogues is a rather challenging composite -- the tendency used to be mostly towards cold winters, now more recently it has been to sustain mild weather, although the second most recent analogue (2009-10) was a cold winter.

Thoughts appreciated, I am in no great rush to finish this winter forecast as my other numerical guidance is also very scattered. My subjective feeling is that we're in a highly zonal pattern that will take at least the first half of the winter to break down. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Starting to work on a winter forecast, the first step is to identify best analogues from monthly averages January to October. I have used a mild 12.5 for October in this calculation. The calculation is the total of differences squared for each of the ten months so far this year. 

 

TOP THIRTY ANALOGUES 1659 to 2016

 

Rank __ Year, Sum Squares ___ Winter CET Means Nov to Mar following

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -NOV_DEC_JAN_FEB_MAR

_ 01 ___ 1822, 07.66 _________ 8.2 _ 1.6 _--0.1_ 3.1 _ 5.0

_ 02 ___ 2014, 11.72 _________ 8.6 _ 5.2 _ 4.4 _ 4.0 _ 6.4

_ 03 ___ 2000, 12.31 _________ 7.0 _ 5.8 _ 3.2 _ 4.4 _ 5.2

_ 04 ___ 1828, 12.40 _________ 7.4 _ 7.4 _ 0.3 _ 4.3 _ 4.3

_ 05 ___ 2009, 13.89 _________ 8.7 _ 3.1 _ 1.4 _ 2.8 _ 6.1

_ 06 ___ 1998, 13.91 _________ 6.2 _ 5.5 _ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 7.4

_ 07 ___ 1950, 14.64 _________ 5.7 _ 1.2 _ 3.9 _ 3.7 _ 4.1

_ 08 ___ 1706, 14.84 _________ 6.1 _ 4.7 _ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 5.0

_ 09 ___ 1957, 14.92 _________ 6.4 _ 4.5 _ 3,4 _ 4.7 _ 3.7

_ 10 ___ 1943, 15.14 _________ 6.3 _ 3.5 _ 5.8 _ 3.6 _ 5.2

_ 11 ___ 1831, 15.27 _________ 5.6 _ 5.8 _ 3.1 _ 3.4 _ 5.8

_ 12 ___ 1801, 15.53 _________ 4.8 _ 1.5 _ 1.6 _ 3.7 _ 5.6

_ 13 ___ 1960. 15.80 _________ 7.3 _ 3.9 _ 3.9 _ 6.9 _ 8.2

_ 14 ___ 2002, 15.97 _________ 8.5 _ 5.7 _ 4.5 _ 3.9 _ 7.5

_ 15 ___ 1961. 16.21 _________ 6.0 _ 2.2 _ 4.3 _ 4.4 _ 2.8

_ 16 ___ 1759, 16.42 _________ 5.1 _ 2.5 _ 1.9 _ 3.8 _ 6.6

_ 17 ___ 1999, 16.49 _________ 7.9 _ 5.0 _ 4.9 _ 6.3 _ 7.6

_ 18 ___ 1834, 16.68 _________ 6.7 _ 5.6 _ 2.9 _ 5.7 _ 5.8

_ 19 ___ 1781, 16.75 _________ 6.5 _ 5.4 _ 5.2 _ 1.9 _ 4.1

_ 20 ___ 1959, 16.79 _________ 7.1 _ 6.0 _ 3.8 _ 4.1 _ 6.4

_ 21 ___ 1775, 17.16 _________ 4.8 _ 4.5 _--1.6_ 3.8 _ 6.4

_ 22 ___ 1859, 17.31 _________ 4.8 _ 1.6 _ 3.5 _ 1.7 _ 4.7

_ 23 ___ 2005, 17.45 _________ 6.2 _ 4.4 _ 4.3 _ 3.7 _ 4.9

_ 24 ___ 1982, 17.51 _________ 8.0 _ 4.4 _ 6.7 _ 1.7 _ 6.4

_ 25 ___ 1989, 17.67 _________ 6.2 _ 4.9 _ 6.5 _ 7.3 _ 8.3

_ 26 ___ 1893, 17.75 _________ 5.2 _ 4.8 _ 3.4 _ 5.1 _ 6.7

_ 27 ___ 1994, 17.93 _________10,1 _ 6.4 _ 4.8 _ 6.5 _ 5.6

_ 28 ___ 1878, 17.95 _________ 3.5 _--0.3_--0,7_ 3.1 _ 4.7

_ 29 ___ 1967, 18.37 _________ 5.4 _ 4.2 _ 4.4 _ 1.9 _ 6.3

_ 30 ___ 1732, 18.46 _________ 6.3 _ 2.2 _ 6.9 _ 6.0 _ 5.9

Average of 30 analogues ______ 6.6 _ 4.1 _ 3,5 _ 4.0 _ 5.7

_______________________________________________________________

The averages suggest not much deviation from normal over the winters, but it can be seen that the analogues diverge into two sets, one with a cold theme and one with a mild theme. High variability seems to be more in play than usual in the winters after similar years to 2017. 

This is not meant to be a winter forecast, it is just a data set for use in creating a forecast. I will be looking at similar solar years within these cases, and trends over time. What does stand out is that analogues cluster around three periods -- one is in the Dalton and has some colder winters, one is around 1957 to 1962, and the third is more recent, in particular, 1998 to 2002. Perhaps it is not surprising to find a lot of analogues from the past 30 years of data (9, where the expected number at random is 2.5). However, the recent similarity is centered further back than the very recent past and closer to what many might consider the peak of the "milder winters" interval, so in reality, what we're getting from this set of analogues is a rather challenging composite -- the tendency used to be mostly towards cold winters, now more recently it has been to sustain mild weather, although the second most recent analogue (2009-10) was a cold winter.

Thoughts appreciated, I am in no great rush to finish this winter forecast as my other numerical guidance is also very scattered. My subjective feeling is that we're in a highly zonal pattern that will take at least the first half of the winter to break down. 

I am also worried about the highly zonal pattern, since mid.July approx. and the highly frequent re-appearance of Euro High which can persisit for months, I am wondering all those above average SST in medit. and the stored heat in Spain or Portugal might be causing  inflated Azores high and SST config. in North Atlantic contribute to creating shortvawes south of Greenland, my analogues also suggest 2 cold winters and 2 mild ones with 1 average (1954,1970,1984,1996,2007)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall obviously.
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

The NMME above doesn't look great for the UK. Mostly neutral precipitation and above average temps. For those who don't know what the NMME is, it is a mixture of the CanSIPS and CFS seasonal ensembles.

EC Seasonal forecasts (paid forecasts) are below. MSLP forecasts for Europe.

IMG_2337.thumb.PNG.579b99e958acf69b0f703fd5c5e6958d.PNGIMG_2338.thumb.PNG.4db968dbe76416144c0c7c993524d892.PNGIMG_2339.thumb.PNG.4fd36b051cc0966dfba197385f1de001.PNG

December is progged to have ridging over the UK, particularly to the north.

January shows troughing to west of the UK, with potential Atlantic influence.

February shows a ridge over the UK.

Very interesting prog, next month's one could be interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
12 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

The NMME above doesn't look great for the UK. Mostly neutral precipitation and above average temps. For those who don't know what the NMME is, it is a mixture of the CanSIPS and CFS seasonal ensembles.

EC Seasonal forecasts (paid forecasts) are below. MSLP forecasts for Europe.

IMG_2337.thumb.PNG.579b99e958acf69b0f703fd5c5e6958d.PNGIMG_2338.thumb.PNG.4db968dbe76416144c0c7c993524d892.PNGIMG_2339.thumb.PNG.4fd36b051cc0966dfba197385f1de001.PNG

December is progged to have ridging over the UK, particularly to the north.

January shows troughing to west of the UK, with potential Atlantic influence.

February shows a ridge over the UK.

Very interesting prog, next month's one could be interesting.

December's looks absolutely stonking and screams at a Greenland High anomaly, here's hoping!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

December's looks absolutely stonking and screams at a Greenland High anomaly, here's hoping!

It's a sure sign that the silly season is fast approaching, when models start to stonk and scream!:D

Edited by Ed Stone
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