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The Seasonal Forecast Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

An early look at summer from the weather outlook

Quote

 

Summary

1) Seasonal models suggest above average temperatures.

2) The signal for rainfall is more nuanced. The UK Met Office GloSea5 is weakly pointing towards above average rainfall, but a number of other seasonal models favour dry conditions.

3) A switch to El Niño conditions late on could increase the risk of more unsettled weather occurring towards the end of summer.

4) The latest 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season forecast is for a near average number of storms. This would possibly favour average or more settled than average weather continuing in the UK during August and September.

On balance a warmer than average summer is considered likely at the present time. The signal for rainfall is more mixed, but close to average is considered the most likely outcome. The wettest part of the summer may occur towards the end but the hurricane season forecast possibly goes against this.

 

 
 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3744&title=Summer+2017+weather

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Those who want a cold winter for 2017/18 do not want to see another very warm and dry September!  Anyway, late spring and summer to think about for the time being.

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27 minutes ago, Don said:

Those who want a cold winter for 2017/18 do not want to see another very warm and dry September!  Anyway, late spring and summer to think about for the time being.

Don't think that'll concern Summer Sun at all. :D

Not sure there's much of a link between September's weather and Winter's weather anyway.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Accuweather's summer forecast is out in previous years they haven't proved too successful will that continue this year?

Quote

 

Prolonged heat, including several dangerous heat waves, will be a major issue across southern and eastern Europe throughout the summer. By contrast, a lack of lasting heat is predicted across the United Kingdom and Ireland. In between these areas, rounds of thunderstorms will target countries from France to Poland and the Czech Republic.

accuweather.brightspotcdn_com.thumb.jpeg.4d7e895a8c92dab1c0bb46818937f3fe.jpeg

Lack of extremes to highlight summer in United Kingdom, Ireland

Overall, a fairly normal summer is predicted across the British Isles with no long-lasting heat or week-long washouts. The weather pattern will feature storms moving from the Atlantic across northern and western Europe. This will result in occasional chances for rainfall which lasts for a day or two, followed by several days of dry weather.

The most frequent rainfall will occur across Scotland, but even there, no enhanced risk for flooding is expected. The best chance for extended periods of dry and sunny weather will be across southern Wales and southern England. These areas have received well below-normal rainfall since the beginning of winter.

"Across Southern England, it is possible that drought conditions develop by the end of the summer with the potential for damage to crops and water restrictions," Roys said. This weather pattern will also shield the United Kingdom and Ireland from any prolonged periods of warmth, with an up-and-down temperature pattern likely.

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-europe-summer-forecast-heat-to-dominate-the-south-storms-to-rattle-germany-and-poland/70001611

Edited by Summer Sun
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Forecast for summer 2017

I have employed my standard method of assembling index values and added the feature of analogue years based on the similarity of 2015-(May)2017 to 29-month periods starting with each January in the CET period of record.

First of all, the analogue years (closest 15% of least total difference in monthly anomalies ... rather than giving each analogue as year 1 to partial year 3, I just show them as the relevant year to compare with this year. So, for example, the analogue 1868 starts with Jan 1866. 

 

Analogues -- chronological order

1662, 1663, 1708, 1719, 1725, 1732, 1734, 1736, 1737, 1738, 1739, 1750, 1761, 1775, 1826, 1829, 

1835, 1859, 1868, 1885, 1899, 1912, 1914, 1915, 1926, 1933, 1936, 1938, 1945, 1950, 1959, 1960,

1961, 1967, 1968, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1976, 1989, 1990, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005,

2006, 2009, 2011, 2014

 

Analogue year anomalies (relative to entire data set)

Month _____ 1662 to 1950 ___ 1959 to 2014

May (11.2) ___ --0.1 __________ +0.3

June (14.3) ___ +0.5 __________ +0.5

July (16.0) ____ +0.3 _________ +0.4

Aug (15.6) ____ +0.4 _________ +0.6

Sept (13.3) ____ +0.3 _________ +0.8

Oct (9.7) ______ --0.1 _________ +0.8

(the winter sets for 2017-18 generally follow the trend of October)

 

ASSESSMENT -- The trends are generally somewhat positive through the summer and more normal given the changes in mean CET values for the autumn and following winter. It can be easily seen that the analogues diverge beyond May into two camps. There is a good scattering of warmer than average summers, especially in the recent 25% of the data. Some very warm summers are in the analogue set (1868, 1933, 1976, 1989, 1990, 2005, 2006). But there are also some very poor summers (1912, 1972 for example). You can also see that the frequency of analogues is much higher in two notable warm periods, the 1730s, and the years since 1999, than in most other decades. 

 

How this compares to the index values for summer 2017

The index values inspire some confidence because they made a reasonably accurate prediction for the mild March and early April, cooler mid-April, and return to slight warmth in early May. So the index value technique is starting from a strong position. It has had a few deviations over the past five years as I continuously work to improve it, but in general I see it falling on the right side of (recent) averages more than two thirds of the time. What it shows for summer 2017 is a relatively cool start and a very warm second half, from late July through September. The analogues have a bias towards July warmth. Blending these together, it suggests that late July might be a time for heat wave conditions. There is enough scatter in both sets to suggest some intervals of cool, wet weather too, these more likely in June and early July than the rest of the summer.

FORECAST CHOICE __

After reviewing all of these indicators and the current global patterns, I am going with this outlook for the UK and Ireland:

Summer 2017 may start out with rather cool and sometimes wet intervals, and June will struggle to reach normal values, perhaps finishing about 0.5 deg below recent 30-yr averages. This trend may continue for a while into July but I hope to see a change to much warmer and probably drier conditions although with some locally intense rainfalls from thunderstorms. July through September may average as much as 1 deg above recent normals. At least one hot spell seems likely, at least for southern parts of the UK and perhaps also southeast inland counties of Ireland; this would more likely be a warm spell rather than a heat wave for other regions. In general, it may turn out to be a good summer but I won't be surprised if it seems otherwise for the first half. Perhaps it would be better to indicate that there might be a very good "summer" from mid-July to late September.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
14 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Forecast for summer 2017

Perhaps it would be better to indicate that there might be a very good "summer" from mid-July to late September.

 

Oh dear.  I do not like the sound of this part of the forecast!

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Whatever the cause, the long-term trends are clear, September has been gaining on June and October on May throughout the last 3.5 centuries. November has made less progress against April although some reduction in their overall difference. The four seasons have been converging more and more on the astronomical (21st of month) timetable and away from the climatological (1st to end) timetable that we favour here. I find it interesting that in North America, very few people are conscious of the climatological model of defining seasons, quite common to hear a lot of chatter in weather circles about the approach of summer on the 21st of June etc (people are generally unaware of small variations that take these dates into the 20th to 23rd ranges). In fact the best dates for seasons by mean temperature would be perhaps mid-month start and end dates (as in 16 June to 15 September). 

I didn't mention a specific CET prediction, let's say top 30 (ranking around 30th out of 359) for mean June-August and perhaps one month as high as 10th. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Location: Barling, Essex
On 06/07/2017 at 07:31, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Auditing a supplier in Lincolnshire yesterday. Good to see the combine harvesters rolling already

 

Nearly Autumn......

As long as October knows it's place this year. None of this Indian Summer nonsense please!

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
37 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

As long as October knows it's place this year. None of this Indian Summer nonsense please!

Yep. The Azores High spoils every season where it shows its ugly face.

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
On ‎09‎/‎07‎/‎2017 at 18:33, Spikey M said:

As long as October knows it's place this year. None of this Indian Summer nonsense please!

I would love to see a real chiller of an October for a change but sadly the last sub 8C October was way back in 1992 and even sub 9C was way back in 1993!  1993 was also the last time the whole autumn was a real chiller with a cool July, August and February as bonuses.  Even December 1993 had cold zonality in parts at times.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
On 2017-6-5 at 07:38, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Plums, conkers, hawthorn berries, apples;  Autumn's here already if you know where to look !!

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I think you know this of course, but if these things are normal in early summer it hardly means it's nearly Autumn lol

At least not any more than daffodil shoots on December the 5th mean it's nearly spring.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
On 09/07/2017 at 19:11, Ice Man 85 said:

Yep. The Azores High spoils every season where it shows its ugly face.

yep, not only the enemy of summer when it just sits there, but winter too, as no heat nor real cold can establish as long as the azores enemy is at home

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Early look at winter from the weather outlook

Summary

At this stage there isn't a clear signal for winter 2017/18. Recent climatology favours milder than average conditions but some of the background signals tentatively suggest a different outcome. Therefore the initial TWO view is that the chance of a colder winter, or at least one bringing the risk of snow at times, is higher than it has been for several years.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3898&title=Winter+2017%2f18+weather

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

GloSea5 September update is out. Those of a nervous disposition should look away now:

OND 

2cat_20170901_z500_months24_global_deter

NDJ 

2cat_20170901_z500_months35_global_deter

DJF :shok:

2cat_20170901_z500_months46_global_deter

 

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Makes you wonder which period the 2m temperatures are compared against with the majority of the globe showing being above normal.

Go the Met O web site and it will give the dates, sorry off hand no idea which period they use.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 hours ago, Yarmy said:

GloSea5 September update is out. Those of a nervous disposition should look away now:

DJF :shok:

2cat_20170901_z500_months46_global_deter

 

Yet another update that couldn't look any worse for a cold lover.  Have to laugh really!

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