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A Winter's Tale

The Seasonal Forecast Thread

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My forecast is summer until wednesday/thursday, cooling down for early to mid June with some late ground frosts, warming up mid June but unsettled until early July, more settled from mid July until early August but temps around average but with the chance of a short sharp hot spell with thundery downpours, very cool second half to August, as ever the heat returns for September, not sure it will be as late as last autumn though.

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Another very average Summer to come overall imo, the main difference to recent years being a slowly improving picture as opposed to a slowly declining one.

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JUNE-UPDATE - hot spells with a few cool days - thunderstorms at times - quite a sunny month

I am expecting some cooler days through June, but i expect more warm and hot periods then cool periods for all areas-these cool downs being only a couple of days and then warm again, but there will be several attempts at very warm weather and at least one heatwave lasting several days-this most likely mid-late month, and it is these that i think at this stage are more likely to win out overall then cool weather, what we won't get is a heatwave lasting the whole month, but above average temperature on a whole and slightly below average rainfall, i'm not expecting a wet month for June.

ESS

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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June and July -(what i posted on 21st May-part of my forecast)

For rainfall during the first 2 months i see this being lower than average widespread rain with the rain coming from convective activity in the way of downpours and storms, some active fronts affecting western areas where i expect more thundery frontal rain to be present then elsewhere during June and July, also these being slow moving at times, across the drought zones(some may have changed drought status)there is a higher risk of less widespread rainfall but a higher risk of downpours and storms locally causing flooding, temperatures would be generally above average from the more prolonger warmer and hotter weather. ESS

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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No summer forecast yet from Netweather only seven days left???

due today ...................... i thought ???

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due today ...................... i thought ???

Still says later this month. Maybe 23.59:59???

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It'll be issued tomorrow.

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Just to clarify the issue of extreme temperatures, my forecast is meant to imply a chance of an extremely high value being recorded in the UK, probably in the southeast or south central regions, at some point during the summer, and obviously not day after day, so when I referred to values around 38 C this was to indicate that possibility, which would compare to extremes in years like 1868, 1911, 1990, 2003 or 2006. I can't guarantee this of course, but my research indicates that the potential is above average and since we are in a background warmer climate period as well as a decade where extreme warmth has been noted in almost all parts of the year, I thought it reasonable to include this. Both from a statistical and analogue perspective, the most likely time for this to take place is late July or early August (in fact it would be quite remarkable to get a temperature above 36 C outside of that period).

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TWO's Summer forecast is also due today but no sign of it yet......

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too late

?

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GP's forecast for summer is out. A fantastic winter forecast, can the summer forecast also be brilliantly accurate. Nonetheless, the hard work and presentation of the forecast is great.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=summer-forecast-2012;sess=

Essentially, the forecast states that June will be the most unsettled month of the summer, but July and August should see some more settled, drier and warmer conditions. Subsequently, the forecast is going for a slightly warmer than average and drier than average summer.

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? who told you that?

There is 3 starts to summer i have read!

This thread is for discussing seasonal forecasts and nothing else now back on topic please..

My forecast, i had under-estimated how widespread the rainfall from atlantic weather.. lows/fronts would be, a reason for this is because the Jetstream is acting unseasonal, in summer it should move a cross the far north, and in winter it is usually across southern areas.. it is across southern areas! if this pattern was to continue then we would experience the mixed active conditions we have had recently. The further look ahead is warm if not hot spells in the south and these could make it north, patterns do change and two good sunny summer months out of the three would be nice! actually in my parts it's not been anything less then very mild in the daytime, so really not to bad, it could be colder. When we look at large scale signals/indications of what is possible in the weeks a head things can change nearer the time, it is very difficult to get 30 days out as accurate as you would expect it to be let alone 3 months! so think about the forecasters that put alot of work into all this.

Posted Image

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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JUNE ... Mainly warm and dry, especially first half of month. Temperatures 1.5 to 2.0 above normal, CET 15.9. Rainfall around 70% southeast to 90% northern half UK, sunshine 10-20 per cent above normal.

For the first time since reading your forecasts this one is way out, and at quite short range too. Does this mean that the rest of the forecast needs adjusting according to new data, or do the July and August predictions stand strong no matter what might be going astray in June?

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Did anyone expect such wet weather? i said slightly below average rainfall on a whole generally, but i also said downpours and storms causing local floods.

I didn't expect such deep lows and widespread rainfall, but fronts in the west. So i did get it partly wrong on the rain fronts, we are halfway through and i still think some very warm air pushing up from the south.

It is a different pattern to what i had imagined in May for this period, this does not upset July pattern, i can understand some thinking that, so if one month is wrong then the next 2 must be? not so, what setup we have now can get shifted into a new weather pattern, it does not mean a washout summer at all, in fact there could be drier weather on the way, with the deep lows moving away for several weeks, but it does not mean we won't get flooding as thunderstorms are part of summer, what is unusual is the deep lows hanging around with a different calender month on there wall!

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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I read quite a lot with people saying that not much sign of a change to what we have been experiencing! So it's the Jetstream that won't shift, why not!!

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I wish it would shift it has been strong over the uk for ages now. I do hope it breaks down soon and allows for some settling down. Has anyone else noticed that the high pressure over the azores is large but not very strong at 1024mb?

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Two rays of hope, the weather in the eastern US resembles 1911 and there's a 60-65 day cycle in temperature that would favour a strong warming trend around the end of July.

Otherwise this has been a case of too much debris from the early June blocking phase, some of the day to day patterns have begun to look more normal but they aren't strong reversals so we keep slipping back into feedback-driven rainfall events.

Betcha there will be a hot, dry spell soon, maybe after the Olympics start, just when you really don't want it hot and dry since most athletes and spectators would probably prefer comfort over heat stress. I think we all know it can't start until the Open has come and gone. :)

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Really need a settling down from mid July for my forecast, done quite good so far but not confident of it settling down from mid July now i'm afraid but you never know.

Might just starting slightly later though in late July.

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Everybody ready for the 2003 Summer Olympics?

sorry Roger this has me puzzled but then that is easily done?

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2003 weather showing up in FI on charts ... and in my research model too ... expect some heat when the Olympics start (also some heats).

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My forecast has been hampered by the excessive moisture flow from early June to mid-July. Since then it has begun to phase more with the actual pattern. By mid-July I could see that extremely high temperatures would be difficult to achieve but the Olympic period has been notably warmer and drier than both average and the recent past. So I feel good about that. By the way, congrats to all in "Great Britain" or whatever you call your country, the Olympics have been a great organizational success and a big spectacular sports-wise, almost everything has been quite exceptional. Including the weather (can you imagine certain two week periods in the previous six?)

*shudders*

We have been enjoying the coverage, even the cross-country bike track looked like the ground was quite dry which is amazing given the rainfall anomalies previously.

Team GB on a roll, our own performance rather "up and down" but about what was expected.

I'm sure the LRF assessments at end of season will be cruel enough, but I happen to be reasonably pleased with the pattern outcome at this late stage, sort of like the winter, the best part of the forecast is the last part, oddly enough.

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