The Seasonal Forecast Thread

[jules216]

Putting this into seasonal thread, Jamstec's September update is up and very pleasant on eye,with below average temperatures for UK and Ireland and above average precipitation for south, drier in north,north west

 

Precipitation Dec,Jan,Feb

[Gavin Hannah]

Putting this into seasonal thread, Jamstec's September update is up and very pleasant on eye,with below average temperatures for UK and Ireland and above average precipitation for south, drier in north,north west

 

Precipitation Dec,Jan,Feb

 

 

Ooooooo that is eye candy indeed. Almost like a noreasterly making it's camp over the UK. 

[Polar Maritime]

-1c/-1.5c below Avg for the UK. Music to my ears for now.. Another 1683/84 would do 

Edited September 16, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[jules216]

There seems to be an easterly, south-easterly component in those charts as south of Ireland has the highest precipitation anomaly, looks like moist air from Atlantic undercut by the block in north, dare to say resembling 1946/47 winter,

 

Does anyone know what did Eurosip show on yesterday's update?

 

Looks like we have UK MET+JAMSTEC+POAMA all going for colder then average wither on the latest updates

 

Interesting indeed

[Yarmy]

What's the baseline for the JAMSTEC anomaly: 61-90, 81-10 or something else?

 

Edit: Found it... 

 

Base period for estimation of anomalies is 1983-2006.

 

 

SST chart for the full picture:

 

 

Edited September 16, 2015 by Yarmy

[johnholmes]

So the first two idea are out, UK Met with nothing to excite cold lovers and the one above that will obviously be far more talked about than the Met O idea.

Be interesting, even this early, come the end of February, to see which this far out was closest. I know where I would put my money if I was into betting.

[beng]

Here's another interesting tweet showing output from the latest Jamstec

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/644065289483735040

 

"Europe also cold now on JAMSTEC! Following UKMET lead. SST shades of 09 in N Atl...more important than nino there"

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.9.14.2015.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.9.14.2009.gif

 

Similar in some aspects, different in others.  In terms of the N Atlantic, there's a lot more warmth in the tropics than in 2009 - maybe aid the Southern part of jet stream through winter.  More energy off the US East Coast though this year which create more cyclogenisis there.

Edited September 16, 2015 by beng

[Gael_Force]

Putting this into seasonal thread, Jamstec's September update is up and very pleasant on eye,with below average temperatures for UK and Ireland and above average precipitation for south, drier in north,north west

 

Precipitation Dec,Jan,Feb

I wouldn't get too enthusiastic about those; track record is awful.

 

last year    year before 

So the first two idea are out, UK Met with nothing to excite cold lovers and the one above that will obviously be far more talked about than the Met O idea.

Be interesting, even this early, come the end of February, to see which this far out was closest. I know where I would put my money if I was into betting.

1983 to 2006 is the base period, shown under the map in the wider view.

 

edit ...oops that was for Yarmy and not  John.

Edited September 16, 2015 by Gael_Force

[jules216]

I wouldn't get too enthusiastic about those; track record is awful.

 

last year    year before 

1983 to 2006 is the base period, shown under the map in the wider view.

 

edit ...oops that was for Yarmy and not  John.

 

 

It looks very poor indeed especially for 2013, in Europe and USA

[Gael_Force]

It looks very poor indeed especially for 2013, in Europe and USA

You were asking about the Eurosip - you can view some charts here.  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/iMMEindex.shtml

[johnholmes]

"Europe also cold now on JAMSTEC! Following UKMET lead. SST shades of 09 in N Atl...more important than nino there"

 

what UK met lead please?

The model I saw suggested no cold of any depth either over UK or Europe Dec-Feb?

[Yarmy]

"Europe also cold now on JAMSTEC! Following UKMET lead. SST shades of 09 in N Atl...more important than nino there"

 

what UK met lead please?

The model I saw suggested no cold of any depth either over UK or Europe Dec-Feb?

 

 

It's a tweet from Big Joe of the Laminated Flooring. Looking down his other tweets, it looks like he is referring to the following:

 

 

 

 

I don't know what the provenance of these images is, though.

[jules216]

"Europe also cold now on JAMSTEC! Following UKMET lead. SST shades of 09 in N Atl...more important than nino there"

 

what UK met lead please?

The model I saw suggested no cold of any depth either over UK or Europe Dec-Feb?

Hi John,

 

That's the latest(this week's) update from GLOSEA, the UK met seasonal model, which is now showing below average temperatures for DJF period and blocking to our North, North-West, temps also below average for that period

[johnholmes]

nor do I

below is the link to their actual charts that they have issued, make of the anomalies as you wish. However, to me they do NOT suggest much in the way of -ve anomalies either at the surface or at 850mb over the area you show from his post.

I suspect we are early into trying to make 2+2 = anything but what it should equal.

Just my cynical view of course.

Folk already mentioning 1947, from what? I have no idea.

still it makes for lots of posts in here and provided we all stay polite to one another it can do no harm really.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

[johnholmes]

Hi John,

 

That's the latest(this week's) update from GLOSEA, the UK met seasonal model, which is now showing below average temperatures for DJF period and blocking to our North, North-West, temps also below average for that period

 

sorry but I simply cannot see any of that on the charts I have linked to in my last post. Of course we may both be quoting from different data. I have no idea where the data sets I have linked to originate from within UK Met. I thought that was their latest model output. Apologies if I am wrong.

However, a word of caution. If the GLOSEA you quote is in fact the latest. Ask this question. How many of these have shown similar temperatures over the last couple or so of outputs. ANY model is suspect if it changes from run to run.

[jules216]

nor do I

below is the link to their actual charts that they have issued, make of the anomalies as you wish. However, to me they do NOT suggest much in the way of -ve anomalies either at the surface or at 850mb over the area you show from his post.

I suspect we are early into trying to make 2+2 = anything but what it should equal.

Just my cynical view of course.

Folk already mentioning 1947, from what? I have no idea.

still it makes for lots of posts in here and provided we all stay polite to one another it can do no harm really.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

No harm to gather the data anyway, at this long range it's all about speculations, I hope people do not take these things too seriously as we are still only in the beginning of Autumn, the good thing would be to save these forecasts now and compare the verification stats come March

[jules216]

sorry but I simply cannot see any of that on the charts I have linked to in my last post. Of course we may both be quoting from different data. I have no idea where the data sets I have linked to originate from within UK Met. I thought that was their latest model output. Apologies if I am wrong.

However, a word of caution. If the GLOSEA you quote is in fact the latest. Ask this question. How many of these have shown similar temperatures over the last couple or so of outputs. ANY model is suspect if it changes from run to run.

 

I was referring to a chart that someone put up in the Stratosphere thread couple of days ago, it was Sebastian I think, I do not have the source or the link to that exact chart. 

[johnholmes]

I found this link

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/

perhaps some of the comments stem from that.

If anyone has a link to the GLOSEA outputs or comments about them can you post them please?

thanks

[Yarmy]

I was referring to a chart that someone put up in the Stratosphere thread couple of days ago, it was Sebastian I think, I do not have the source or the link to that exact chart. 

 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-74#entry3258525

[johnholmes]

Interesting that those sets of charts are somewhat different from the links I provided. I have no idea what the link is to those provided by Sebastian.

I might e mail UK Met and ask!

[jules216]

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-74#entry3258525

That's the one I was referring to, would be very helpful if someone can provide the actual web source of that chart, I always to get these charts "3rd party" from other sources

[Catacol]

John - Glosea5 shows 2 things to my eye - a slightly colder than average 2m temp forecast and above average pressure to our NW. This comes from the ensemble mean runs... So a similar apparent pattern to the Jamstec. Both seem to be seeing northern blocking in our sector.

[Nouska]

Interesting that those sets of charts are somewhat different from the links I provided. I have no idea what the link is to those provided by Sebastian.

I might e mail UK Met and ask!

 

The ones you posted are probability charts - there are also ensemble mean charts, from which the images above have been taken. Link for all the seasonal products below.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks

[johnholmes]

The ones you posted are probability charts - there are also ensemble mean charts, from which the images above have been taken. Link for all the seasonal products below.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks

 

thanks for that I will spend a little time looking first at the link you have given (thank you for that) and those I posted to see what I make of them. Again I will try and get an e mail off to Met although sadly it is so long since I retired I have no direct links into the senior forecasters or researchers.

[beng]

nor do I

below is the link to their actual charts that they have issued, make of the anomalies as you wish. However, to me they do NOT suggest much in the way of -ve anomalies either at the surface or at 850mb over the area you show from his post.

I suspect we are early into trying to make 2+2 = anything but what it should equal.

Just my cynical view of course.

Folk already mentioning 1947, from what? I have no idea.

still it makes for lots of posts in here and provided we all stay polite to one another it can do no harm really.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

 

I agree that the UKMO model is not screaming 1947 or 1963  - I'm not sure any of these models would ever pick up an event like that ahead of time though?  Anyone got any thoughts on that as I've always found it quite interesting wondering whether the models of today could pick up on a winter like that ahead of time.

 

On the face of it looking at 2m and 850 temps, it's not even saying cold - more average with a bias to cold just west of the UK.  The surface pressure charts do hint at higher than normal pressure around Iceland though and there are a few similarities in the Atlantic SST anomalies to 2009 (also some differences too). Other factors like the QBO (not checked this to be certain) and solar activity are likely quite different and the winter El Nino may be stronger this year - perhaps more east based too.

 

Plenty more of this to come over the next few months as we build up to the winter season - we've still got the OPI to reel out in due course (which failed miserably last year).

 

I've tried to follow the seasonal models in the past, but it's become clear with a bit of experience that they are really pretty useless.  Basically no one has a clue at this stage and for the UK at least - predicting the winter coming is probably impossible.  Bastxrdi has analogue years (probably based more on the pacific) of 1958,2003,2009 - which if you put into the NCEP composites shows a strong bias for much colder than normal to our East - with the UK slightly below average. The problem is, even if those composites turn out close to the mark, if the Atlantic energy is just slightly stronger than previous years, we'd end up quite mild - alternatively if it's a bit weaker we could be noticeably cold.  Sometimes, I'm glad I'm not a professional forecaster as the UK weather is always on such a knife edge.

 

The Express which is pushing the Madden nonsense has done this for the last 3 years consecutively predicting a severe winter.  I suppose if they keep at it, even a stuck clock is right twice a day.

Edited September 17, 2015 by beng