The Seasonal Forecast Thread

[damianslaw]

Given many press reports have misrepresented the Met Office in recent days I don't take much notice of such articles. The press isn't doing the Met Office well at the moment, I've lost count of the number of reports saying we are in for a repeat of last winter's wet fest, indeed we should be under a constant stream of wetness right now if you were to believe such reports, the outlook couldn't be further from the truth.

 

I think the Met Office is struggling at the moment, can't get a handle on the buckled ineffectual Jetstream and more than many a year suggest we give any long range forecast a huge margin of error.

[Lincs Observation]

Just found this on MSN UK ugly reading really if you like the cold. Health warning for coldies please take your pills before reading the following  http://www.msn.com/en-gb/weather/topstories/white-christmas-unlikely-as-met-office-predicts-milder-than-average-winter/ar-BBfOBCG

 

 

 

LO

[marksiwnc]

Just found this on MSN UK ugly reading really if you like the cold. Health warning for coldies please take your pills before reading the following  http://www.msn.com/en-gb/weather/topstories/white-christmas-unlikely-as-met-office-predicts-milder-than-average-winter/ar-BBfOBCG

 

 

 

LO

They did also say colder and drier for last winter. How wrong they were. They haven't got a clue. I believe some experienced people on Netweather a lot more than the idiots at met office

[Zenarcher]

My December 2014 forecast https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4846-december-2014-forecast/

[Man With Beard]

My 2014 Winter Forecast

Here is my winter forecast for 2014/15 (please let me know if I should post this elsewhere). It is based on extensive pattern matching over by comparing this year’s 500Hpa charts with those from the last 100 years - I have avoided looking at the common indicators (e.g. SAI, QBO, SSTs, El Nino etc) as, though I agree with their principles, I would simply be replicating what others on this forum have already done.

 

So here’s what I have come up with:

 

GENERAL FORECAST:

A mixed winter with short spells of wet/windy weather, a few longer spells of drier weather (including a long dry spell in January) and two windows for cold/snowy weather – first at the end of December/early January, and then again at the start of February. High pressure will never be too far away though, so a lot of frost and possibly fog as the winter develops.

 

Temperatures:

Overall - slightly below average.

December possible slightly above

January below average

February slightly below average

 

Precipitation:

Overall: slightly below average

Dec: slightly above 

Jan: below 

Feb: average

 

Details

December 1-7: Azores High ridging in. A mainly dry week, but occasional fronts moving in from the NW. Temperatures around average but some frosty nights possible

December 8-14: High pressure will move across the UK, perhaps centred over the North Sea. Mainly dry weather as a result, and possibly quite frosty with freezing fog a possibility

December 15-21: High pressure moves back out to the west allowing some Atlantic lows to move from the WNW, so some rain this week, generally average temperatures but a little colder in the north with hill snow a possibility

December 22-28: The Christmas period sees the stormiest week of the year, as lows now head straight for the UK with potential for flooding rain and coastal gales. Temperatures above average

December 29-January 3: A big change this week – the last of the lows darts to the south as pressure builds around Iceland. Eventually, the flow over the UK turns to the east, bringing quite cold weather and the South of the UK is particularly at risk from snow

Jan 4-10: Possibly the coldest week of the year. High pressure around Iceland has now spread the Greenland and takes hold for a few days. Easterlies turn into northerlies with a straight arctic blast and low pressures running down through Scandinavia. The North and East quite likely to see snow at times, but all areas at risk.

Jan 11-17: The Greenland High collapses at last and lows head back towards the UK. A possible snow to rain event is followed by a wet week with strong winds. Temperatures eventually recover to above average.

Jan 18-24: High pressure moves in, so a fairly dry week. Temperatures start high but eventually drop with frost again a risk

Jan 25-31: High pressure firmly in charge, so again quite dry – some fronts possibly skirting the far NW. Cold and frosty in the SE

Feb 1-7: High pressure still in charge but moving west during the period, so fronts could come down from the North, with snow an outside possibility

Feb 8-14: As fronts clear south, pressure builds to our north, with blocking from Greenland across to Scandinavia – so another very cold week, perhaps rivaling the first week of January for the coldest week of the year. Snow is a major risk this week, with quite a lot of snow possible in the south.

Feb 15-21: Blocking relents, allowing some systems to move in from the Atlantic. A snowy breakdown ensues, and it may take more than one effort for a full breakdown to come. Eventually temperatures return to above average with a fair amount of rain for all

Feb 22-28: High pressure moves across the UK this week to give a cool, dry week, though possibly warmer depending on the positioning of the High.

[Bobd29]

Good luck with that rjbw, though I hope you are wrong about the Christmas period - gales and rain don't do it for me in the festive period, perhaps we could move your early Jan prediction forward a week

[damianslaw]

After 6 seasons near or appreciably above the average (only Autumn 2013 coming in near average), is a colder than average season ahead??

 

These are just my thoughts taking reference from others thoughts and projected forecasts-

 

December - Near average, I've gone slightly below, but it could end up a little above average. Quite a mixed month overall, starting off fairly quiet with frost  likely and average maxes thanks to high pressure, a more unsettled period in the middle with wind and rain and milder conditions but nothing exceptional, we may see one or two colder incursions from the NW at times more so in the north but these shortlived, still chance of some snow at modest levels here. The question then is when a change to colder conditions occurs, before or after Christmas, I will stick with just before, but with the cold not really digging in until the tail end of the month - a transitional period then over Christmas a bit of everything with some decent hill snowfall, before a cold New Year.

 

January - Below average, a cold first half high pressure present to the north steering in northerly/easterly airstreams, so good chance of some snowfall and hard frosts. Second half nearer average but with further threats of snowfall , but northern blocking will relent somewhat.

 

February - sticking my neck out and saying below average, not expecting the atlantic to make too much inroads and we could see another cold blast from the NE.

 

Rainfall wise I am going for a little below average, sunshine wise above. Perhaps a slightly less extreme version of winter 84/85 which saw a mild December before a cold plunge just in time for New Year. A general very cold January and cold February. I'm least confident about February.

[Captain Shortwave]

Here are my views for December (copied and edited from my post last night in the SE thread)

 

December forecast (or random guess as others might call it  )

 

The JMA and CFS monthly forecasts suggest a mostly anticyclonic week 1 and 2 (week 2 the heights are weakening somewhat). Weeks 3 and 4 show strong heights in the western Atlantic with low heights draining south east through the UK, strengthening support for a more unsettled and potentially colder spell from Mid-December onwards. This ties well with initial thoughts relating to other winter variables including SAI and Stratospheric conditions as well as previous winter analogues. One change made was for high pressure to at least be favoured for a part of this month compared to my previous view of a very unsettled month.

 

1st-10th December

This period will likely be dominated by high pressure ridging across the UK from the south west from time to time. Rainfall should be below average and temperatures slightly below normal given anticyclonic conditions and the occasional polar maritime flow.

 

11th - 20th December

Conditions should turn more unsettled from here as the Azores high starts to back westwards, this will allow a strong jet to blow ESE from the north Atlantic bringing wet and windy weather, temperatures will be near or a little below normal as the winds generally come from the west or north west. An Arctic blast could potentially happen here.

 

21st-31st December

Things will likely get much more interesting now. The now Atlantic ridge will continue to strengthen and amplify in my view, this will allow low pressure to sink south east through or just east of the UK, this will result in a generally cold pattern with wintry precipitation (Similar to late November 2012). Towards the end of this period there is a definite chance of a significant cold spell developing as the Atlantic ridge could potential cut off towards the Arctic allow Arctic/Siberian air to spread towards the UK from the east/north east.

 

Overall

Rainfall - Close to average, maybe slightly above if the second two thirds are particularly wet.

Temperatures - Probably a little below normal (between -1 and 0C anomaly compared to the average)

.

Edited November 29, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Man With Beard]

Good luck with that rjbw, though I hope you are wrong about the Christmas period - gales and rain don't do it for me in the festive period, perhaps we could move your early Jan prediction forward a week

Thanks Bob! Yes I'd rather be wrong for Christmas too!

I was interested that my pattern matching exercise returned a cold new year period (the winter of 1931/32 being one of my main guides) , seeing as almost every other forecast on NW is also going for a cold-plunge around that time. It will be impressive if collectively as a forum we get this one right.

Edited November 29, 2014 by rjbw

[Roger J Smith]

Going to issue an update of previous forecast, same general theme but seeing a colder balance between mild and very cold spells.

 

DEC -- After a few mild days some cold anticyclonic conditions will develop, and with retrogression indicated, this may turn into an exceptionally cold mid-month period with below freezing temperatures in daytime and heavy snowfalls in eastern England and many parts of Scotland as well as exposed coasts of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This bitter blast may be followed by slightly milder temperatures around Christmas and New Years but there is some chance of a white Christmas as recovery might be rather slight at first. Now revising December CET down to 2.0 C.

 

JAN -- Very stormy to start as the Atlantic tries to regain a hold against an entrenched blocking pattern over Europe. Possible severe storms around 4th to 6th at the high energy peak of full moon and northern max. These may take the form of mixed rain and snow in many areas although where winds are strongest in south, a brief thaw and heavy rainfall event associated with temps briefly near 10-12 C. Scotland may not see much of this milder air and blizzards may develop. Exceptional cold is then likely mid-month, followed by much milder weather towards the end of January. The CET may be quite low but will go with 1.7 C.

 

FEB -- Mild for a few days near the start of the month then blocking will return and it could produce severe cold at times. Some chance of a subzero CET month. Will say 0.1 for the verification.

 

MAR -- It will remain cold for most of the month then break to quite a warm end of the month but not in time to make much of a dent in a subnormal CET value around 4.5 C.

 

The basic difference (if any) between this and earlier forecast is that I have reduced the overall average temperatures although retaining a similar high-variability oscillation in pretty much the same time sequence. November showed only faint indications of this high-variability trend in the UK, more so in Ireland which has seen colder days recently than most of Britain, however, the hemispheric pattern is clearly winding up for a very active winter.

 

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's my winter forecast for 2014/15.

 

 

BACKGROUND

 

In putting this together, I considered 7 different factors, some looking at their current state and others at their projected state during winter. I then compared these with previous years back to 1967 (where the data goes back that far), gave the factors in each year a score based on it's similarity to this year, and then assigned a weighting for each factor.( I won't go describing what each of the factors is in detail, or the influence they have, as this has been done by several forecasts already this year.)

 

Below shows the factors considered and the weighting.

 

 

 .................... FACTOR ................ ............ ...........WEIGHTING.......... .......... ................ REASON

Eurasian October Snow Cover Growth........ ............4 .......................Closest to the SAI I could get, useful for winter AO

Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO).............. ...............4 ............... ...... Important in determining the strength of the polar vortex and chance of SSWs

Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)............... ........ ........4 .......... ............ Can alter the jet stream, influence SSW risk and more

 Kara/Barents Sea Ice Concentration .......................2 ........... ........... Influences Arctic and Eurasian winter weather patterns, NAO

N. Atlatic Sub Tropical Gyre SST Anomaly...............1.............. ......... Can influence the state of the winter NAO

NE Pacific SST Anomaly Pattern ............. ...............1 .............. ........ May alter the jet stream as it transits North America

October Pattern Index ...................... .......................2 ............. ......... Might be a strong predictor of winter AO and CET anomaly

 

 

So for each of the factors above, their current state and state in previous years were compared, and a score given based on the weighting system. This data was added into a spread sheet and each year was given a percentage value based on it's similarity, across the factors listed, with this year. Then the years with a similarity of greater than 50% were used for further analysis, these years were 1968/69, 1970/71, 1972/73, 1979/80, 1986/87, 2002/03, 2003/04 and 2009/10. Further analysis was then carried out by creating composite maps, and analysing the CET and AO values. This formed the basis for the forecast.

 

WINTER FORECAST 2014/15

 

Below is the DJF SLP composite map

 

 

A very clear signal for higher pressure to our north, and lower pressure just to our south. This set up would indicate an increased likelihood of easterly sourced winds and below average temperatures across the winter as a whole.

 

Here's a look at each winter month in more detail.

 

DECEMBER

 

A very weak signal over December, with a slight positive anomaly showing over Scandinavia. This would suggests a lot of uncertainty in December.

 

December AO

 

The average December AO over the composite years is -0.42, with two months above 0.5, three below -0.5 and three close to average. This is skewed slightly by the -3.4 value in December 2009.

Overall, a weak -ve AO signal increases the chance of cold conditions very slighty.

 

 

December CET

 

Across the years used, the average December CET value 4.8C, or 0.2C above the 81-10 average. This consisted of 4 above average months, 2 average months (within 0.5C) and 2 below average months, ranging from 3.0C to 6.2C.

Like the AO, there's not a strong signal, but very little chance of a significantly cold month with a CET below 3C.

 

 

December Overall

 

The composites suggest a +ve SLP anomaly over Scandinavia, but it may not be strong enough to exert a strong influence on our weather. The data seems to suggest that significantly above or below average conditions are unlikely during December as a whole. Overall, the chance of milder than average conditions is greater than cooler across the British Isles.

 

 

JANUARY

 

A very strong signal is evident for January. A very strong +ve SLP anomalies are present from eastern Greenland across to Scandinavia, with strong -ve anomalies to our south. A pattern like this would bring an increase in easterly winds, and likely cold conditions.

 

January AO

 

The AO averaged  over the composite years is very low, at -1.44. This would indicate a strong likelihood of a disorganised polar vortex and cold plunges across the northern hemisphere. Of the composite years, only one had an AO above 0.5 in January, with two average and 5 below average, of which three were under -2.

 

January CET

 

The average January CET across the composite years was 3.6C, or 0.8C below the 81-10 average. This consisted of 2 above average months, 3 average and 3 below average, with a range from 0.8 to 5.5C.

Overall, a moderate signal for a below average CET, and so below average conditions over the British Isles.

 

January Overall

 

The overall signal for January is for a disrupted polar vortex and a high likelihood of high latitude blocking. This increases the chances of significant cold outbreaks and a below average months overall. Given the composite anomaly map, with both strong +ve and -ve SLP anomalies close by, a slight shift could give wet or dry conditions, but given the increased risk of easterly winds, below average precipitation is favoured.

 

 

FEBRUARY

 

 

The blocking signal for February weakens slightly, but is still present. The shift in the highest anomalies towards Greenland suggests an increase in northerly orientated air streams over the British Isles with much less of a Scandi high. The overall pattern would, once again, bring an increased risk of below average temperatures.

 

February AO

 

The average February over the composite years is moderately low, and -0.94. This consists of one month above 0.5, two average and 5 below 0.5, of which one was below -2. This suggests an strong chance of a disorganised polar vortex (though not as much as January), with significant cold outbreaks and increased blocking across the northern hemisphere mid to high latitudes.

 

February CET

 

The average CET across the composite years is 3.9C, 0.5C below average. This consists of two more than 0.5C above average, 3 close to average and 3 more than 0.5C below average.

A weak to moderate signal for a below average CET, and so below average conditions over the British Isles

 

February Overall

 

While not as strong as January, the overall signal for February is for a continuation of the disrupted polar vortex, but with a focus toward a -ve NAO rather than general northern blocking or a Scandi High. This increases the chances of below average temperatures across the British Isles.

 

 

WINTER OVERALL

 

It seems very likely that the AO will be -ve overall and that at least 1 month will have an AO of less than -1.5, most likely in January or February. Given the large shift from no clear pattern and weakly -ve AO values in December to strong blocking and very -ve AO values in January, a SSW event is likely to be the trigger that causes a shift from December into January. While there is little risk of a significantly cold December, there is a moderate chance of very cold conditions in January, and to a lesser extent in February.

Precipitation is more likely to be below average in northern and western areas,  especially in January and February, owing to the increase in easterly winds and northerly blocking

 

To summarise, a mixed December with close to or mild temperatures overall, followed by a colder than average January to February producing a close to or slightly colder than average winter overall. 

 

[Hocus Pocus]

Great read BFTV and a well detailed breakdown on factors involved in hour forecast. Good luck.

Edited November 30, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[johnholmes]

Thank you for all the hard work hat went into that BFTV, interesting that you and others tend to favour below rather than above average temperatures overall this winter. Even more so when the model data from weather centres suggests the opposite. It is going to be an interesting 3 month period as we see how this plays out. 

thanks again,

Edited November 30, 2014 by johnholmes

[chionomaniac]

Can't really argue with those weightings BFTV. Good luck. With so many forecasts suggesting the same it'll probably be the warmest winter on record!!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

OK loads of Forecasts out there and I've certainly enjoyed reading them...good luck to all, let WINTER BEGIN!! 

 

BFTP

[marksiwnc]

OK loads of Forecasts out there and I've certainly enjoyed reading them...good luck to all, let WINTER BEGIN!! 

 

BFTP

I agree let's hope this winter does begin unlike last year. Great effort by everyone thanks

[damianslaw]

Probably the main reason for the difference in the seasonal model projections and those of individuals favouring a colder than average winter overall, is due to the inclusion of the strat profile factor. I doubt any of the models are factoring this into account and quite rightly as it is an unknown, however, as we have seen it is a major player and for this reason treat all forecasts with large margin for error.

[feb1991blizzard]

Probably the main reason for the difference in the seasonal model projections and those of individuals favouring a colder than average winter overall, is due to the inclusion of the strat profile factor. I doubt any of the models are factoring this into account and quite rightly as it is an unknown, however, as we have seen it is a major player and for this reason treat all forecasts with large margin for error.

 

But the models all model up to very high altitude as far as I know and the strat and trop are both part of the atmosphere and are constantly interacting with each other, I don't like it when people use the term 'the new strat model' in relation to upgrades of models to increase the ceiling, the models must surely be factoring in the strat but due to resolution, the butterfly effect and long range modelling still being in its infancy (relatively), the models are still projecting a mild winter despite background signals, of course they are not wrong yet but only time will tell.

Edited December 1, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[johnholmes]

Probably the main reason for the difference in the seasonal model projections and those of individuals favouring a colder than average winter overall, is due to the inclusion of the strat profile factor. I doubt any of the models are factoring this into account and quite rightly as it is an unknown, however, as we have seen it is a major player and for this reason treat all forecasts with large margin for error.

 

re not including Stratosphere data, I can't find the link at the moment but I felt sure that was now part of the routine?

I think this is the link

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/climate-models

climate models and routine synoptic models go up to 95km, I 'think' this is way into the Stratosphere?

Edited November 30, 2014 by johnholmes

[Suburban Streamer]

hi everyone, my winter forecast is available here (too long so i wont copy the whole thing into here)

fingers crossed for some decent wintry spells

 

http://londonwx.wordpress.com/winter-1415/

[Man With Beard]

hi everyone, my winter forecast is available here (too long so i wont copy the whole thing into here)

fingers crossed for some decent wintry spells

http://londonwx.wordpress.com/winter-1415/

Awesome forecast, brilliantly detailed, like many others this year your cards are on the table with nowhere to hide! Good luck.

[Bobd29]

hi everyone, my winter forecast is available here (too long so i wont copy the whole thing into here)

fingers crossed for some decent wintry spells

 

http://londonwx.wordpress.com/winter-1415/

Good luck with that, well thought out and reasoned, hope you are correct with the colder spells forecast. Seems from this and others that the mid-endDecember period is pivotal for entrenched cold during the New Year or shortly after, if it goes awry then these winter forecasts will fall.....but let us be optimistic for the moment

[Deep Snow please]

My seasonal forecast

 

3-7 December 2014: The entrenched cold front arrives, harsh frosts every night and temps as low as -5C but not snowfall.

8-15 December 2014: The cold really kicks in now, highs of -3C for the early part of the week, possibly edging above freezing in the latter part. 2-5cm of snow this week.

16-22 December 2014: The cold kicks in even harder Mon-Thurs highs of 1C and lows of -10C with highs of -11 and lows of -20 widespread by the end of the week. Around 25cm of snow will accumulate Mon-Thurs; too cold to snow for much of the end of the week. Permafrost possible,

22-29 December 2014: Week fairly consistent highs of +/- 2C with lows of around -10C on lowlands. Around 50cm of snow for the entire week, with 25cm of that falling on christmas day.

29 Dec - 4 Jan 2014: More of the same, further build up of snow between 60cm and 90cm within Mon-Fri and a further 120cm-150cm over the weekend. Temps staying relatively mild at -3C to 3C for much of the week.

4-11 January 2014 - No snow this week, clear flies and harsh frosts. No melt either as temps ranging from -20C lows to -9C highs freeze the snow.

12-18 January 2014 - Similarly to last week, low temperatures of -18C to -9C highs.

19-25 January 2014 -  The temps warm up a bit with lows of -4C by the end of the week, highs around 2-3C. Around 45cm of snow on Monday, dry to Thursday and then around 500cm in harsh blizzards on Saturday night into sunday dawn (falling a 60cm per hour).

26 Jan - 1 Feb: Temps decrease again, snow freezes and temps around -11C highs and -30C lows widespread, much colder in mountainous areas.

2-8 Feb: Mass snowmelt begins with a warm front coming in from the south west. Mass temperature increases to around 11C low and 15C high - melt snow extremely fast, with issues further compounded by 

9-16 Feb: Flood relief efforts hampered by widespread gusts of between 110mph and 180mph. These come from the north bringing with them heavy snow showers, although little accumulation on mostly sodden ground.

16 Feb - 1 March: The conditions turn spring like with average temperatures and little precipitation. 

Edited December 3, 2014 by Deep Snow please

[Dorsetbred]

My seasonal forecast

 

3-7 December 2014: The entrenched cold front arrives, harsh frosts every night and temps as low as -5C but not snowfall.

8-15 December 2014: The cold really kicks in now, highs of -3C for the early part of the week, possibly edging above freezing in the latter part. 2-5cm of snow this week.

16-22 December 2014: The cold kicks in even harder Mon-Thurs highs of 1C and lows of -10C with highs of -11 and lows of -20 widespread by the end of the week. Around 25cm of snow will accumulate Mon-Thurs; too cold to snow for much of the end of the week. Permafrost possible,

22-29 December 2014: Week fairly consistent highs of +/- 2C with lows of around -10C on lowlands. Around 50cm of snow for the entire week, with 25cm of that falling on christmas day.

29 Dec - 4 Jan 2014: More of the same, further build up of snow between 60cm and 90cm within Mon-Fri and a further 120cm-150cm over the weekend. Temps staying relatively mild at -3C to 3C for much of the week.

4-11 January 2014 - No snow this week, clear flies and harsh frosts. No melt either as temps ranging from -20C lows to -9C highs freeze the snow.

12-18 January 2014 - Similarly to last week, low temperatures of -18C to -9C highs.

19-25 January 2014 -  The temps warm up a bit with lows of -4C by the end of the week, highs around 2-3C. Around 45cm of snow on Monday, dry to Thursday and then around 500cm in harsh blizzards on Saturday night into sunday dawn (falling a 60cm per hour).

26 Jan - 1 Feb: Temps decrease again, snow freezes and temps around -11C highs and -30C lows widespread, much colder in mountainous areas.

2-8 Feb: Mass snowmelt begins with a warm front coming in from the south west. Mass temperature increases to around 11C low and 15C high - melt snow extremely fast, with issues further compounded by 

9-16 Feb: Flood relief efforts hampered by widespread gusts of between 110mph and 180mph. These come from the north bringing with them heavy snow showers, although little accumulation on mostly sodden ground.

16 Feb - 1 March: The conditions turn spring like with average temperatures and little precipitation.

Hmm, good luck with your forecast just one thing, 180mph winds across the UK, that would be interesting!

Edited December 4, 2014 by Dorsetbred

[Danielvn]

My seasonal forecast

 

3-7 December 2014: The entrenched cold front arrives, harsh frosts every night and temps as low as -5C but not snowfall.

8-15 December 2014: The cold really kicks in now, highs of -3C for the early part of the week, possibly edging above freezing in the latter part. 2-5cm of snow this week.

16-22 December 2014: The cold kicks in even harder Mon-Thurs highs of 1C and lows of -10C with highs of -11 and lows of -20 widespread by the end of the week. Around 25cm of snow will accumulate Mon-Thurs; too cold to snow for much of the end of the week. Permafrost possible,

22-29 December 2014: Week fairly consistent highs of +/- 2C with lows of around -10C on lowlands. Around 50cm of snow for the entire week, with 25cm of that falling on christmas day.

29 Dec - 4 Jan 2014: More of the same, further build up of snow between 60cm and 90cm within Mon-Fri and a further 120cm-150cm over the weekend. Temps staying relatively mild at -3C to 3C for much of the week.

4-11 January 2014 - No snow this week, clear flies and harsh frosts. No melt either as temps ranging from -20C lows to -9C highs freeze the snow.

12-18 January 2014 - Similarly to last week, low temperatures of -18C to -9C highs.

19-25 January 2014 -  The temps warm up a bit with lows of -4C by the end of the week, highs around 2-3C. Around 45cm of snow on Monday, dry to Thursday and then around 500cm in harsh blizzards on Saturday night into sunday dawn (falling a 60cm per hour).

26 Jan - 1 Feb: Temps decrease again, snow freezes and temps around -11C highs and -30C lows widespread, much colder in mountainous areas.

2-8 Feb: Mass snowmelt begins with a warm front coming in from the south west. Mass temperature increases to around 11C low and 15C high - melt snow extremely fast, with issues further compounded by 

9-16 Feb: Flood relief efforts hampered by widespread gusts of between 110mph and 180mph. These come from the north bringing with them heavy snow showers, although little accumulation on mostly sodden ground.

16 Feb - 1 March: The conditions turn spring like with average temperatures and little precipitation. 

 

 

I think you've got the end of January wrong but otherwise I think you're spot on!