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The Seasonal Forecast Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

In which case, wouldn't there be a clearly discernible 11-year oscillation in global temperature? 

A negative AO does not cause a change of average temperature does it? It causes wobbles in the jetstream which makes some regions colder and others warmer than usual 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

A negative AO does not cause a change of average temperature does it? It causes wobbles in the jetstream which makes some regions colder and others warmer than usual 

So, what has the fact that the coolest part of the day is after dawn (or the time required for the Earth to cool) got to do with anything?:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
21 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Slightly inconvenient for the solar minimum/colder winter working theory.

The Holton Tan effect has to be considered too, though. The abstract for Labitzke et al 2006:

Quote

 

We have shown in earlier studies the size of the changes in the lower stratosphere which can be attributed to the 11-year sunspot cycle (SSC). We showed further that in order to detect the solar signal it is necessary to group the data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Although this is valid throughout the year it was always obvious that the effect of the SSC and the QBO on the stratosphere was largest during the northern winters (January/February).

Here we extend our first study (Labitzke 1987) by using additional data. Instead of 30 years of data, we now have 65 years. Results for the entire data set fully confirm the early findings and suggest a significant effect of the SSC on the strenght of the stratospheric polar vortex and the mean meridional circulation.

 

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.393.7345&rep=rep1&type=pdf

The gist is that WQBO+Solar Max promotes a weakened SPV, as does EQBO+Solar Min. But of course, it's never quite that simple.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
12 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

WINTER 2019/20 

 

What may this winter bring.  As you know I base my forecasts on the primary solar forcing of the cycles of the sun, the magnetic field effect modulated by the lunar gravitational pull.   

In 2009/10 and 2010/11 winters we saw incredible cold and snowy spells.  This was at Schwabe solar minima between cycle 23 and 24.  Sunspot count was as follows 

2007 – 152 spotless days 

2008 – 268 spotless days 

2009 – 260 spotless days 

2008/9 winter was not a cold one 

As cycles are generally 11 years long I think we are at the position of 2008.  Current sunspot run in this minima between cycles 24 and 25 

2018 – 221 spotless days 

2019 – currently at 238 spotless days and the sun is currently blank with 46 days still to go.  Will we exceed 268?  It’s up for grabs that is for sure....time will tell.  I might be wrong and we might be at the same spot now as 2009 and not 2008.   If so then this minima isn’t looking as deep so we’d have to include 2017 which ran at 104 spotless days.  So my comparison looks like this 

2007 – 152 v 2018 – 221 

2008 – 268 v 2019 currently at 238 and counting 

If we are at same place as 2008 then this is the comparison 

2007 – 152 v 2017 – 104 

2008 –268 v 2018 – 221 

2009 – 260 v 2019 currently 238 and counting 

 

Factors I’m looking at 

So, could this be important?  It could be and as we know the deep minimas do appear to bring northen blocking, a meridional and a southerly tracking jetstream.  Already Nov is nicely below average with a very meridional jetstream.   

We have now seen that October was 5th in snow cover league which was some going considering the rapid expanse in the last week.  Added, Nov now the snowiest on record. 

Arctic ice was very very low in relation to the ‘recorded’ mean but as highlighted by MIA on the appropriate thread we have had a very notable, sit up and look rapid refreeze up there. Also the lack of refreeze in Chukchi Sea may support ridging in that region.  MIA also made a point re SSTs this side of the NH.  Cold blob to our west and cold going up Norway round Lapland and Finland to our N and NE.  This would make any northerly or NE’ly have much more bite with less moderation of uppers.  We have seen incredible (at times) record cold surges being recorded with early snowfall being recorded widely.   

We still have a disconnect between strat and Trop and are descending towards eQBO 

 

So is this the winter to be a 20th century Great matcher, (in 2018 I touted one of the next 3 2018/9, 2019/20, 2020/21 will be).  It wasn’t last winter so it has to be this year or next winter for me to be correct.   

So here we go, this winter has a real chance.  November has behaved very well to my thoughts and indeed is looking to be cooler than I thought with the jet digging further south.  My concern has been re December that I’ll looking for pM and at times aM air to be the main feature (basically a lot of northerly winds with a displaced PV over Scandinavia.  The issue in past is how far south the cold will push and how much mixing out of the cold will there be it being maritime air.  Well the SSTs imo favour that the cold should be quite punchy.  

Rest of November, another southerly tracking LP to come before we see HP have greater influence/build over us from the Atlantic cross us to the north and to likely to slip away east with a less cold period last week of the month before we see what I think will develop for Dec at months end. 

 

December – The way Nov has and is panning out I am now edging towards cold and at times snowy conditions for whole of UK and Ireland and not just far North Scotland and NI. 

From very end of Nov I think we’ll see a PV displacement to set up shop to our NE driving down at times arctic air over the whole of the UK.  The cold will be of significance with at times secondary LPs coming at us on NW/SW axis off the Atlantic bumping in to very cold air.  I’m anticipating a very snowy at times December with Northerly Quadrant flow generally dominating for the month.  Periods for me of potential note for disruptive weather 2nd week up to midmonth and last week of December.  If it’s cold then snow and gales likely issue, if not cold enough then very heavy rain and gales.... hedging bets as I know how disappointing northerly flow can be for southern parts. 

However, we could be looking at a month here of memory with potential of memorable cold and snow periods 

January – I’m really up in the air on this.  Initially I think first week continues the theme of December, another very disruptive week of (hopfully) snow but disruption through precip and wind.  However, I think HP will then develop and dominate most of the month.  Its where it positions itself will be all important.  I’m currently of the thought it will be over us ie mid lat blocking and we’ll see cold nights but with daytime temps gradually rising.  However, slight adjustments could see real cold easterlies or a drab and not very cold S to SE’ly flow. 

 

February – Continues HP them with potential cold easterly and southerly tracking LP during 2nd week but more norm temps if not mild at times....stubborn HP in wrong place. 

 

Alternative to this is the HP being bang on in right place and bitterly cold.......but for me a front loaded winter and a disappointing last half.....but very much open to change as that is on a fine edge. 

 

BFTP 

Good luck with your forecast.

 

One thing we don't have to worry about is lack of cold uppers if we get direct Northerly outbreak.

Colder on this side of the Arctic Ocean than the Canadian side,might be important in the long term this winter,regarding firing up of the jet stream,because of the cold uppers flooding out  of Arctic Canada and hitting the Atlantic Ocean.

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
2 hours ago, Yarmy said:

The average height of a man in the UK is 5 foot 9 inches. That does not mean that men in the UK are generally 5 foot 9 inches tall.

But anyway, it's meaningless to compare spotless day counts by calendar year, which is the point. Moreover, nobody should be using spotless day counts anyway, as the record is not homogeneous over time. The International sunspot number should be used as that is adjusted to account for differing number of observers in different time periods and the rest.

The years are a time snapshot of how the minima progressed and imo is not meaningless and I’ll stick to generally thank you.

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
52 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Slightly inconvenient for the solar minimum/colder winter working theory.

Not at all, it’s about the grand minima not Schwabe cycles ie Dalton, Spoerer etc.  Anticipation that we have entered a similar period.

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
3 hours ago, Sceptical said:

BFTP,

"So is this the winter to be a 20th century Great matcher"

Are you suggesting that this winter could rival 1947 or 1963/63?

No, other winters 39/40, 77/79, 85/86/87 were greats too imo but as per above I think we could be scuppered by mid lat blocking Jan and Feb.......

 

BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Good luck with your forecast.

 

One thing we don't have to worry about is lack of cold uppers if we get direct Northerly outbreak.

Colder on this side of the Arctic Ocean than the Canadian side,might be important in the long term this winter,regarding firing up of the jet stream,because of the cold uppers flooding out  of Arctic Canada and hitting the Atlantic Ocean.

Thanks Sleety, a bit of fun.  Indeed I agree that there should be some bite

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
23 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Thanks Sleety, a bit of fun.  Indeed I agree that there should be some bite

BFTP

Aye, good luck, with it, Fred.:oldgrin:

But, I do have the feeling that (with the ever-present GW signal unlikely to disappear, any time soon?) hot summers, as opposed to cold winters, could be the hallmark of the current grand minimum...?

All the best, mate!:oldgood:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye, good luck, with it, Fred.:oldgrin:

But, I do have the feeling that (with the ever-present GW signal unlikely to disappear, any time soon?) hot summers, as opposed to cold winters, could be the hallmark of the current grand minimum...?

All the best, mate!:oldgood:

 

Not to get involved in a climate change debate but taking a look at the last 10 years we have seen - Feb 2009 snow event in the SE, winter 2009 / 2010, Nov / Dec 2010, March 2013, TBFTE and also who knows if last winters failed easterly would have made the list. So whilst I am also aware of the warm side of the story too, these cold / severe cold / snow events are still very possible - just take a look at my posts in the snow and ice thread with many snowfall and cold temperature records already broken across Scandinavia and USA -  and -48 C in one part of Russia yesterday morning 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye, good luck, with it, Fred.:oldgrin:

But, I do have the feeling that (with the ever-present GW signal unlikely to disappear, any time soon?) hot summers, as opposed to cold winters, could be the hallmark of the current grand minimum...?

All the best, mate!:oldgood:

 

Thanks Pete, can you order the hot summers for August please?  As in recent years When my son breaks up from school bang goes the summer

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
9 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Slightly inconvenient for the solar minimum/colder winter working theory.

The problem with equating “cold winter” to solar minimum is that it can be seen by some as a direct relationship and clearly it isn’t. It only takes a quick look at CET seasonal or monthly averages to see that no hard and fast rule applies, and as soon as one accepts that outliers are always a statistical reality then the picture blurs. We know that we have had some great winter spells at solar minimum but we have also had some crackers closer to maximum...such as Feb 91 and Jan 79. 

For me the observational suggestion would be that blocking is more prevalent in a low solar phase. This is hard to “prove” because I’ve never seen an index of blocking away from NAO that satisfactorily captures the pattern....and NAO doesn’t tell us much about what is occurring to the NE. The other reality about blocking is that it can be warm as well as cold, and so a simple temperature correlation is not going to reveal an impact. Rainfall would be interesting, but as we are seeing in November 2019 a blocked pattern can produce copious rainfall.

So in the end we have to back our judgement. I do believe that low solar increases the chances of blocking, but it is only one of a range of factors and on its own will not tip a pattern. However in concert with other drivers it can work in favour of cold blocking. Ultimately hunting for cold weather is akin to buying a raffle ticket, and in a low solar year I think we get 2 strips rather than 1.... 

 

 

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
31 minutes ago, Catacol said:

The problem with equating “cold winter” to solar minimum is that it can be seen by some as a direct relationship and clearly it isn’t. It only takes a quick look at CET seasonal or monthly averages to see that no hard and fast rule applies, and as soon as one accepts that outliers are always a statistical reality then the picture blurs. We know that we have had some great winter spells at solar minimum but we have also had some crackers closer to maximum...such as Feb 91 and Jan 79. 

For me the observational suggestion would be that blocking is more prevalent in a low solar phase. This is hard to “prove” because I’ve never seen an index of blocking away from NAO that satisfactorily captures the pattern....and NAO doesn’t tell us much about what is occurring to the NE. The other reality about blocking is that it can be warm as well as cold, and so a simple temperature correlation is not going to reveal an impact. Rainfall would be interesting, but as we are seeing in November 2019 a blocked pattern can produce copious rainfall.

So in the end we have to back our judgement. I do believe that low solar increases the chances of blocking, but it is only one of a range of factors and on its own will not tip a pattern. However in concert with other drivers it can work in favour of cold blocking. Ultimately hunting for cold weather is akin to buying a raffle ticket, and in a low solar year I think we get 2 strips rather than 1.... 

 

 

clip_image002-1.jpg?fit=628%2C628&ssl=1&
WATTSUPWITHTHAT.COM

Guest post by Paul Dorian *Potential role of low solar activity this winter as solar minimum deepens and the wide-ranging impacts of...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire
13 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

It is generally colder in the mornings just after dawn than midnight, same principle could apply for solar cycles, the earth needs time to cool off and the sun needs time to warm up the earth 

Layman's question alert -

I though I  read somewhere the best correlation of equatorial sea temps and Arctic sea temps was a two year lag due to ocean heat transport. If solar insolation bottoms now,  equatorial seas might continue to cool until half way to the next peak (a bit like Artic seasonal ice peaks in March and not December even though days have been getting longer for 3 months by March). That gives coldest equatorial waters maybe 3 years after the solar minimum and then another two year delay to reach coldest Arctic waters due to ocean heat transport. The Arctic seas would be coldest around 2024 - close to the next solar maximum. Could the recent very warm Chukchi Sea be down to heating at the equator until around mid/late 2015  (a couple of years past the solar maximum) plus a two year delay or so for that temperature peak to work its way to the Arctic?

If this were true, the problem then is how to fit together heat transported from the equator by sea slowly and heat transported from the equator by air much more quickly  - I believe generally reckoned to be about 25% to 75% by energy - with the peak energy in the Arctic from air transport likely to be much closer to the solar maximum. The temptation would be to guess at a delay between the two and nearer air transport, say a 18 month to two year delay overall from peak solar, but in practice the interactions between a quicker land air temperature cycle and  slower sea temperature (and moisture cycle) would create obscuring overlay patterns that would obscure the two drivers underneath.

I'll go back to leaning on a 5-bar gate and chewing my long stem of grass now.

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
On 18/11/2019 at 12:26, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Thanks Sleety, a bit of fun.  Indeed I agree that there should be some bite

BFTP

Your Forecast for December looking good

Ignore the gfs bias of wanting to blast Zonal Muck through.Its been the same in that regard for years.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
8 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Your Forecast for December looking good

Ignore the gfs bias of wanting to blast Zonal Muck through.Its been the same in that regard for years.

Thanks Sleety, this year my LRF has gone under the radar......quite nice as it ain’t half looking like it’s picked up the vibe....I’m happy with this current ‘mild’ blip too and the quick change to cold that appears to be coming.

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
WinterForecast.png
WWW.THEWEATHERNETWORK.COM

The wild and historic winter-like weather that's impacted parts of the country this fall looks to provide us with hints of what the upcoming winter has in store. Millions are set for a 'classic Canadian' winter season...

looks like a cold one here..not sure what this set up would mean downstream for the UK or Europe

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
On 18/11/2019 at 21:15, Catacol said:

The problem with equating “cold winter” to solar minimum is that it can be seen by some as a direct relationship and clearly it isn’t. It only takes a quick look at CET seasonal or monthly averages to see that no hard and fast rule applies, and as soon as one accepts that outliers are always a statistical reality then the picture blurs. We know that we have had some great winter spells at solar minimum but we have also had some crackers closer to maximum...such as Feb 91 and Jan 79. 

For me the observational suggestion would be that blocking is more prevalent in a low solar phase. This is hard to “prove” because I’ve never seen an index of blocking away from NAO that satisfactorily captures the pattern....and NAO doesn’t tell us much about what is occurring to the NE. The other reality about blocking is that it can be warm as well as cold, and so a simple temperature correlation is not going to reveal an impact. Rainfall would be interesting, but as we are seeing in November 2019 a blocked pattern can produce copious rainfall.

So in the end we have to back our judgement. I do believe that low solar increases the chances of blocking, but it is only one of a range of factors and on its own will not tip a pattern. However in concert with other drivers it can work in favour of cold blocking. Ultimately hunting for cold weather is akin to buying a raffle ticket, and in a low solar year I think we get 2 strips rather than 1.... 

 

 

It is the depth of minimum that is important not just minimum

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
34 minutes ago, jonboy said:

It is the depth of minimum that is important not just minimum

Allegedly!

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
30 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Allegedly!

So you believe every solar max and every solar minimum are the same then and will always have the same impacts?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, jonboy said:

So you believe every solar max and every solar minimum are the same then and will always have the same impacts?

How did you arrive at that conclusion? What either you or I may choose to believe is neither here nor there. What is is what can be substantiated with evidence...

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

How did you arrive at that conclusion? What either you or I may choose to believe is neither here nor there. What is is what can be substantiated with evidence...

So what is your evidence for using the word 'Allegedly' in the manner you did and do to undermine any form of comment that might just might introduce an area that is not fully understood

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Agree, when related colder set ups it’s nothing to do with the forcing of the Schwabe 11 cycle, it’s to do with the bigger cycles (Gleissberg etc) and grand minima conditions.  We are entering/ entered such a period which deepens, remember a very weak maxima also counts as being in ‘grand minima’ conditions.  Cycle 24 was weak, cycle 25 projected to be even deeper, cycle 26 to be the first ‘bottom out’ of a double deep dip of a grand minima eg of Sporer, Dalton and possibly Maunder dimensions.

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
23 minutes ago, jonboy said:

So what is your evidence for using the word 'Allegedly' in the manner you did and do to undermine any form of comment that might just might introduce an area that is not fully understood

What are you on about? Evidence for word-usage? What's word-usage got to do with anything, for Heaven's sake? 

And, no, I don't dismiss the idea that the PFJ's undulations might be affected by solar minima.:oldgrin:

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