The Seasonal Forecast Thread

[Bobd29]

2 hours ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Hi folks, been a while since I've been on here. I've linked to my winter forecast here:

http://lomondsnowstorm.blogspot.se

On the tablet at the moment but I'll  try and copy it over to this post when I get  chance. 

Excellent forecast with a lot of effort, wish you luck and if it comes off a virtual pint is assured. Thanks for taking the time.

[virtualsphere]

9 hours ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Hi folks, been a while since I've been on here. I've linked to my winter forecast here:

http://lomondsnowstorm.blogspot.se

On the tablet at the moment but I'll  try and copy it over to this post when I get  chance. 

An excellent read  - a well thought out and detailed forecast, thanks for sharing.  Quick question: I notice you have both 1981 and 2010 in your Dec analogues which were obviously very cold compared to average.  Do you think these are likely to skew the forecast - i.e. if these 2 years were pulled out, would the synoptics be broadly similar or would it affect the likely pattern?

[LomondSnowstorm]

2 hours ago, virtualsphere said:

An excellent read  - a well thought out and detailed forecast, thanks for sharing.  Quick question: I notice you have both 1981 and 2010 in your Dec analogues which were obviously very cold compared to average.  Do you think these are likely to skew the forecast - i.e. if these 2 years were pulled out, would the synoptics be broadly similar or would it affect the likely pattern?

A good question - it's similar broadly but the blocking signal is, understandably, toned down a bit.

Edited November 2, 2016 by LomondSnowstorm

[syed2878]

an interesting forecast ls let's hope it comes off.

[Roger J Smith]

This is a report on closest analogues over past twelve months (top 50 and ties).

Taking monthly CET values 1659 to present, I have calculated the total difference in monthly temperatures (TMD) starting the previous November and ending with the October of the years given here. (This means that the Nov-Nov and Dec-Dec analogues were in the previous year). Since 1659 has no Nov-Dec data from 1658, its value was estimated from the assumption of average values in Nov-Dec 1658.

The values going forward would correspond to Nov through Mar of the following winter (after the October of the stated analogue). A TMD of 12.0 indicates an average monthly difference of 1.0 and 18.0 indicates 1.5 C deg. Values before about 1710 are largely estimates with errors of 0.5. It should be noted that this index will be highly influenced by the contributions of previous Nov and Dec as well as Sept of current year, as those were more anomalous than other months. 1659 might have been a good analogue too, if Nov-Dec 1658 had been mild, the average departure for Jan to Oct was 1.1 but the estimate became 1.7 using the assumption of normal Nov-Dec. That placed 1659 just outside this list. 

 

TOP FIFTY-TWO ANALOGUES with CET values going forward (as shown by winter of ...)

YEAR (to OCT) ____ TMD ____ NOV _ DEC _ JAN _ FEB _ MAR ___ (winter of)

 

1828 _____________ 12.9 ____ 7.4 __ 7.4 __ 0.3 __ 4.3 __ 4.3 _____ 1828-29

2004 _____________ 13.3 ____ 7.7 __ 5.4 __ 6.0 __ 4.3 __ 7.2 _____ 2004-05

1730 _____________ 13.5 ____ 9.2 __ 3.4 __ 1.9 __ 2.2 __ 6.0 _____ 1730-31

1949 _____________ 13.5 ____ 6.6 __ 5.8 __ 4.2 __ 5.3 __ 7.4 _____ 1949-50

1834 _____________ 13.6 ____ 6.7 __ 5.6 __ 2.9 __ 5.7 __ 5.8 _____ 1834-35

1925 _____________ 14.4 ____ 3.6 __ 2.8 __ 4.6 __ 6.8 __ 6.3 _____ 1925-26

2000 _____________ 14.5 ____ 7.0 __ 5.8 __ 3.2 __ 4.4 __ 5,2 _____ 2000-01

2005 _____________ 15.3 ____ 6.2 __ 4.4 __ 4.3 __ 3.7 __ 4.9 _____ 2005-06

1935 _____________ 15.4 ____ 6.9 __ 2.8 __ 3.7 __ 2.6 __ 7.1 _____ 1935-36

1998 _____________ 15.4 ____ 6.2 __ 5,5 __ 5.5 __ 5.3 __ 7.4 _____ 1998-99

1999 _____________ 15.5 ____ 7.9 __ 5,0 __ 4.9 __ 6.3 __ 7.6 ___ 1999-2000

1899 _____________ 15.6 ____ 8.5 __ 2.2 __ 4.4 __ 2.6 __ 3.7 ___ 1899-1900

1989 _____________ 15.7 ____ 6.2 __ 4.9 __ 6.5 __ 7.3 __ 8.3 _____ 1989-90

1825 _____________ 15.9 ____ 5.2 __ 4.6 __ 0.4 __ 6.4 __ 6.3 _____ 1825-26

1724 _____________ 16.0 ____ 5.3 __ 3.3 __ 4.4 __ 3.3 __ 5.0 _____ 1724-25

1878 _____________ 16.0 ____ 3.6 _ --0.3 _ --0.7 __ 3.1 __ 4.7 _____ 1878-79

1662 _____________ 16.1 ____ 6.0 __ 3.0 __ 1.0 __ 1,0 __ 5.0 _____ 1662-63

1913 _____________ 16.2 ____ 8.4 __ 5.1 __ 3.7 __ 6.8 __ 6.1 _____ 1913-14

2012 _____________ 16.2 ____ 6.8 __ 4.8 __ 3.5 __ 3.2 __ 2.7 _____ 2012-13

1973 _____________ 16.4 ____ 6.0 __ 4.9 __ 5.9 __ 5.4 __ 5.8 _____ 1973-74

2001 _____________ 16.4 ____ 7.5 __ 3.6 __ 5,5 __ 7.0 __ 7.6 _____ 2001-02

1975 _____________ 16.8 ____ 6.3 __ 5.3 __ 5.9 __ 4.5 __ 4.8 _____ 1975-76

2008 _____________ 16.8 ____ 7.0 __ 3.5 __ 3.0 __ 4.1 __ 7.0 _____ 2008-09

1732 _____________ 16.9 ____ 6.3 __ 2.2 __ 6.9 __ 6.0 __ 5.9 _____ 1732-33

1749 _____________ 16.9 ____ 6.7 __ 4.7 __ 4.0 __ 6.7 __ 8.2 _____ 1749-50

1737 _____________ 17.2 ____ 6.1 __ 4.9 __ 4.6 __ 4.6 __ 5.5 _____ 1737-38

1939 _____________ 17.2 ____ 8.7 __ 3.2 _ --1.4 __ 2.6 __ 6.0 _____ 1939-40

1971 _____________ 17.2 ____ 6.0 __ 6.6 __ 3.9 __ 4.3 __ 6.5 _____ 1971-72

1988 _____________ 17.2 ____ 5.2 __ 7.5 __ 6,1 __ 6,1 __ 7.5 _____ 1988-89

1801 _____________ 17.3 ____ 4.8 __ 1.5 __ 1.6 __ 3.7 __ 5.6 _____ 1801-02

1884 _____________ 17.4 ____ 5.3 __ 4.4 __ 2.9 __ 5.8 __ 4.5 _____ 1884-85

1984 _____________ 17.4 ____ 8.0 __ 5.2 __ 0.8 __ 2.1 __ 4.7 _____ 1984-85

2003 _____________ 17.4 ____ 8.1 __ 4,8 __ 5.2 __ 5.4 __ 6.5 _____ 2003-04

1731 _____________ 17.5 ____ 7.8 __ 5.2 __ 2.4 __ 6.4 __ 6.1 _____ 1731-32

1759 _____________ 17.5 ____ 5.2 __ 2.5 __ 1.9 __ 3.8 __ 6.6 _____ 1759-60

1846 _____________ 17.6 ____ 6.9 __ 0.5 __ 2.2 __ 2.4 __ 5.6 _____ 1846-47

1933 _____________ 17.6 ____ 5.6 __ 1.6 __ 4.1 __ 3.8 __ 4.8 _____ 1933-34

1976 _____________ 17.6 ____ 6.3 __ 2.0 __ 2.8 __ 5.2 __ 6.9 _____ 1976-77

1761 _____________ 17.7 ____ 6.2 __ 4.4 __ 4.7 __ 4.0 __ 3.7 _____ 1761-62

1819 _____________ 17.9 ____ 4.1 __ 1.4 _ --0.3 __ 3.2 __ 4.7 _____ 1819-20

1835 _____________ 17.9 ____ 6.6 __ 3.1 __ 3.7 __ 3.5 __ 5.8 _____ 1835-36

1851 _____________ 17.9 ____ 3.1 __ 4.8 __ 4.9 __ 4.7 __ 5.2 _____ 1851-52

1898 _____________ 17.9 ____ 7.2 __ 7.3 __ 4.9 __ 5.1 __ 5.1 _____ 1898-99

1995 _____________ 17.9 ____ 7.7 __ 2.3 __ 4.3 __ 2.5 __ 4.5 _____ 1995-96

2015 _____________ 17.9 ____ 9.5 __ 9.7 __ 5.4 __ 4.9 __ 5.8 _____ 2015-16 

1822 _____________ 18.1 ____ 8.2 __ 1.6 _ --0.1 __ 3.1 __ 5.0 _____ 1822-23

1686 _____________ 18.2 ____ 6.5 __ 6.0 __ 3.5 __ 4.5 __ 4.5 _____ 1686-87

1727 _____________ 18.2 ____ 4.7 __ 3.6 __ 3.9 __ 2.4 __ 7,1 _____ 1727-28

1666 _____________ 18.3 ____ 6.0 __ 3.0 __ 0.0 __ 4.0 __ 2.0 _____ 1666-67

1736 _____________ 18.3 ____ 7.0 __ 6.4 __ 6.2 __ 4.2 __ 6.1 _____ 1736-37

1930 _____________ 18.3 ____ 6.2 __ 4.3 __ 3.2 __ 3.9 __ 4.2 _____ 1930-31

1967 _____________ 18.3 ____ 5.4 __ 4.2 __ 4.4 __ 1.9 __ 6.3 _____ 1967-68

median values of analogues ___ 6.4 __ 4.3 __ 3.5 __ 4.3 __ 5.5

comparison to long-term avg __ +0.3 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.2

 

ANALYSIS

Top analogues scatter very close to random, at first glance, but with a heavier weighting of recent winters that showed up in the analogue set, the actual scatter is below average for the 30-year periods from which the data were derived. In other words, there is some slight bias towards colder than average patterns in these winters despite the similarity to normal in the very long-range. There are a good number of cold Januaries in the data set, notably in the Dalton period. The analysis concludes with a graph below showing distribution of analogues in 20-year intervals starting with 1661-80 and ending with the current not yet complete 2001-20. Analogues are shown as X while rest of data shown as O. The year indicated is the year analogous to this year (not the coming January of the analogue winter).

DISTRIBUTION OF ANALOGUES and 20-YEAR FREQUENCY

1661-80 oXooo Xoooo ooooo ooooo  __ 2

1681-00 ooooo Xoooo ooooo ooooo __ 1

1701-20 ooooo ooooo ooooo ooooo __ 0

1721-40 oooXo oXooX XXooo XXooo __7

1741-60 ooooo oooXo ooooo oooXo __ 2

1761-80 Xoooo ooooo ooooo ooooo __ 1

1781-00 ooooo ooooo ooooo ooooo __ 0

1801-20 Xoooo ooooo ooooo oooXo __ 2

1821-40 oXooX ooXoo oooXX ooooo __5

1841-60 ooooo Xoooo Xoooo ooooo __ 2

1861-80 ooooo ooooo ooooo ooXoo __ 1

1881-00 oooXo ooooo ooooo ooXXo __ 3

1901-20 ooooo ooooo ooXoo ooooo __ 1

1921-40 ooooX ooooX ooXoX oooXo __5

1941-60 ooooo oooXo ooooo ooooo __ 1

1961-80 ooooo oXooo XoXoX Xoooo __ 5

1981-00 oooXo ooXXo ooooX ooXXX _ 7

2001-20 XoXXX ooXoo oXooX * _____ 7 (9)

* represents 2016

Meanwhile, the five worst analogues are 1740, 1685, 1814, 1688, 1879. That makes winters following (1740-41, 1685-86, 1814-15, 1688-89, 1879-80) least favoured.

The worst analogue since 1950 is 1963 (for winter 1963-64).

On average, the analogues before cold winters are either near the average or slightly better than the average.

 

 

 

 

 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

WSI now going for a colder winter in Europe.

They have for the UK.

Dec: Slightly warmer than Normal

Jan: Slightly colder than normal

Feb: Colder than normal

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2016 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[stodge]

Mr Stodge’s Wintry Procrastinations & Projections 2016-17

With winter close at hand (and foot), time to wheel out my meaningless drivel of a forecast for the coming season. Last year’s belter of a forecast – anticyclonic and often cold – was so far off the mark the arrow didn’t just miss the target but hit someone three miles away.

I can’t do any worse in 2016-17, well, obviously, I can, but here goes with another attempt at playing “guess the atmosphere”:

December: A Month of Three Halves

The atmospheric and synoptic background going into winter 2016-17 is as far removed from that for this time last year as I am from being a professional weather forecaster but while it’s nice to see the PV visiting Siberia, none of this guarantees cold weather for our little corner of the world.

Most of the “expert” LRFs I’ve seen suggest a blocked period in December and that’s understandable with the Atlantic as weak as a cup of tea made with a teabag on its twentieth cup but where the anticyclone sets up will be the key. Could it be to the south or west bringing us moist mild mush or will it to be the north or east bringing frigid freezing (I can’t think of anything else)?

The answer is neither – the HP will be right over the UK – centred between Belper and Matlock by December 15th. That may be a shade precise but the message is a pre-Christmas visit from our friends fog and frost especially for central areas. To the far north and far south too much breeze from the south west and north east respectively and that means drizzle for both (or snizzle for the south if you’re lucky).

So after an indifferent 10 days or so to begin December, HP builds rapidly to provide a stable if frustrating (for fans of snow though not cold) mid-month but around Boxing Day I think we’ll see the HP retreating east or north east allowing the Atlantic to return so no White Christmas but a White Twixtmas especially for those on higher ground but by New Year the Atlanticosaurus has basically defeated the Anticyclonodron in the battle of weather dinosaurs.

Overall then, a mildish start, a colder middle (especially in central areas) with temperatures returning to average by year’s end.

January: Don’t be Cold, Don’t be Angry with Me

Who remembers that song?

Anyway, the weather’s going to take no notice of that and this is going to be the coldest of the three winter months.

I still see the Seasons are playing the classic 3-3-3-3 formation and what good has it done them? They ought to switch to a 2-4-4-2 formation – move December up to provide a more mobile autumnal back four and play June across the spring midfield leaving July and August up front.

Back to January and while the Atlantic might have clawed its way across the country, this will be transitory as the cold remains strong to the east and north and in early January we’ll see that return but not as an anticyclone but rather with the jet heading south and cold zonality becoming the order of the day.

Yes, depressions forming to the south of Iceland (or Tesco’s) swinging SE in a cold NW’ly flow more disturbed than an Eastenders character with secondary features zipping along the Channel so plenty of rain and wind for the south and south west in particular but snow further north especially over northern England, the North Midlands and North Wales. The rain then followed by showers of hail, thunder, sleet, locusts and cucumbers over the south.

It won’t be pleasant and the weather will be in the news a lot but later in the month the jet will start to move back north so the south drying up and warming up and the north seeing more rain than snow with rising temperatures. By month’s end the south could be quite mild and pleasant under benign SW’ly zephyrs bringing Sidney out of his woodshed and letting Knocker’s daffs ease into full bloom.

Overall, quite a cold and disturbed month especially early on but a trend to more settled and warmer conditions taking temperatures in the south above average by month’s end.

February: A Scorpion Month

If you’re still with me (and please try to find something more rewarding to do with your lives), what then of February?

Overall, fairly meh with a bit of yawn thrown in for good measure to start with.

High Pressure rules the roost but as in any good story, if the plot gets dull, introduce a new character. Welcome then the Eurasian (or Siberian) High,

Basically, the core of High Pressure starts to the south or southwest but at the same time the Siberian HP begins to migrate west and builds pressure into Scandinavia and around mid-month becomes the dominant feature turning the winds over southern Britain more ESE and introducing much colder conditions with a risk of snow from a frigid continent.

Pressure falls away over France and Camborne sees an increasingly chill E’ly flow.

Further north, fairly benign conditions with a lot of dry weather though the far north of Scotland will remain under a more Atlantic influence with occasional bouts of rain and drizzle.

As winter ends, however, the Finland HP relaxes its grip and Atlantic systems return but that’s beyond my limited vision.

February is therefore mild to start followed by a much colder interlude turning milder again.

March: Early Thoughts

As it seems probable the planet will be approaching the Event Horizon of a black hole, I would guess early spring will be fairly average but we need a lot more runs before we can firm up and some of the GEFS members are a shade less apocalyptic,

Winter 2016-17 has therefore a little something for everyone. More snow than the last three winters but no real severe spell of snowy weather for the south though Scotland and altitude further south will do well.

 

 

[Barry Reynolds]

I don't post on here much, but I have to say a great forecast Stodge, may well prove correct, especially the first half. I'm going with the most Wintry period of the Winter to be around Christmas. This is based on little more than optimism and gut feeling. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Winter 2016/17

Solar cycle 24 is heading out and this autumn we saw a run of 27 days of a spotless sun [old money spots].  So it is getting quiet.

Very low sea ice

Massive October Eurasia snowcover gain

Massive cold pool in Siberia with Moscow getting coldest Nov since 2002....

PV that is disorganised

Super El Nino now gone with La Nina signature appearing.  Land surface temps dropped by 1c in last 6 months from the high induced by the Super Nino...that is some rapid drop.  It also goes towards the 'warmth' of 2015 and 2016.

So generally as a feel I was happy with the way Nov panned out synoptically.  I believe we are already in a hemispheric circulation that is one heading into a LIA with a Jetstream very meridional and generally pushed south.  I think this year and 2017 are crucial years and will display further weather patterns producing unusual extremes

I think the solar and lunar cycle interactions will play a big part this winter in notable periods along with us being able to tap into intense cold that will seep west from Siberia into Scandinavia as winter progresses / matures  

Periods of note 10-16 Dec - Lunar perigee 12th/Full moon 14th - solar uptick, last week of Dec - Lunar apogee 25th/solar uptick/new moon 29th, 8-16 Jan Prerigee10th / FM 12th quiet sun, 20-31 Jan Solar uptick / Apogee 22nd / NM 28th.  Second half of Feb - FM 11th, solar uptick and Lunar Apogee 18th.  Solar uptick being main driver, lunar effect is modulation.

 

December

I'll start by saying I have no signal for strong HLB just as much as I have no signal for strong Euro ridge and endless W/SW winds.   I think lobes of the PV will be the main player along with ridging in the Atlantic.  HP over us this week will wane next week getting squeezed south. 

Week 1 -  HP dominated with quiet and cold conditions

Week 2 - HP wanes into the near continent/towards our SW as we see very deep trough develop to N Scotland towards latter part of the week.  Very strong NW'ly flow in general with pM and returning pM air.  Where this trough sets up will be of paramount importance, could be NW/N/NE or indeed over us.  I'm on cautious side and think usual suspects in firing line being N Ireland and Scotland getting the pM air and snow.  Mountains getting very good covering but lower levels also joining in.  Very stormy period and generally cold. 

Week 3 -  Continued general NW to W flow, HP to SW ridging N but controlled by main PV to N/NE 

Week 4 -  More stark and stronger northward ridge in Atlantic.  Deep trough/displaced PV to NE bringing sub lows and pM air flooding across whole of UK on western flank.  Very disturbed weather pattern with periods of snow for many.  Cold to Very cold - North getting brunt but not exclusively so.  3/1 Aberdeen snow on Xmas Day a bargain and I have lumped on it.

Of note no HLB Arctic lock in.  CET 3.7c.  Probably higher if first strike stays north  

January

Week 1 - Atlantic ridge gets breached and settles to SW, general quiet W flow. 

Week 2 - HP builds towards Scandinavia SE flow develops - cold pooling seeping W from Siberia

week 3 - Trigger deep LP moves NW/SE across UK advecting bitter cold that has built to NE towards the UK.  strong NE'ly flow develops as this LP moves into Benelux region.  This brings in the coldest winter episode of 2016/17.  HP to NE linking with the Atlantic ridge that builds behind the trigger LP, proibably the only period whereby HLB plays its part directly onto our locale.

week 4 - Continuation of very cold NE'ly flow. 

CET 2.5C

February

Month of two halves - January cold subsides as HP settles over Europe with light W flow.  If HP settles over us then cold nights and cool days

Second half - Displaced PV develops to ENE,N  Atlantic Ridge with strong N'ly feed.  

CET 4C.

 

BFTP

Edited December 2, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Bobd29]

5 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Winter 2016/17

Solar cycle 24 is heading out and this autumn we saw a run of 27 days of a spotless sun [old money spots].  So it is getting quiet.

Very low sea ice

Massive October Eurasia snowcover gain

Massive cold pool in Siberia with Moscow getting coldest Nov since 2002....

PV that is disorganised

Super El Nino now gone with La Nina signature appearing.  Land surface temps dropped by 1c in last 6 months from the high induced by the Super Nino...that is some rapid drop.  It also goes towards the 'warmth' of 2015 and 2016.

So generally as a feel I was happy with the way Nov panned out synoptically.  I believe we are already in a hemispheric circulation that is one heading into a LIA with a Jetstream very meridional and generally pushed south.  I think this year and 2017 are crucial years and will display further weather patterns producing unusual extremes

I think the solar and lunar cycle interactions will play a big part this winter in notable periods along with us being able to tap into intense cold that will seep west from Siberia into Scandinavia as winter progresses / matures  

Periods of note 10-16 Dec - Lunar perigee 12th/Full moon 14th - solar uptick, last week of Dec - Lunar apogee 25th/solar uptick/new moon 29th, 8-16 Jan Prerigee10th / FM 12th quiet sun, 20-31 Jan Solar uptick / Apogee 22nd / NM 28th.  Second half of Feb - FM 11th, solar uptick and Lunar Apogee 18th.  Solar uptick being main driver, lunar effect is modulation.

 

December

I'll start by saying I have no signal for strong HLB just as much as I have no signal for strong Euro ridge and endless W/SW winds.   I think lobes of the PV will be the main player along with ridging in the Atlantic.  HP over us this week will wane next week getting squeezed south. 

Week 1 -  HP dominated with quiet and cold conditions

Week 2 - HP wanes into the near continent/towards our SW as we see very deep trough develop to N Scotland towards latter part of the week.  Very strong NW'ly flow in general with pM and returning pM air.  Where this trough sets up will be of paramount importance, could be NW/N/NE or indeed over us.  I'm on cautious side and think usual suspects in firing line being N Ireland and Scotland getting the pM air and snow.  Mountains getting very good covering but lower levels also joining in.  Very stormy period and generally cold. 

Week 3 -  Continued general NW to W flow, HP to SW ridging N but controlled by main PV to N/NE 

Week 4 -  More stark and stronger northward ridge in Atlantic.  Deep trough/displaced PV to NE bringing sub lows and pM air flooding across whole of UK on western flank.  Very disturbed weather pattern with periods of snow for many.  Cold to Very cold - North getting brunt but not exclusively so.  3/1 Aberdeen snow on Xmas Day a bargain and I have lumped on it.

Of note no HLB Arctic lock in.  CET 3.7c.  Probably higher if first strike stays north  

January

Week 1 - Atlantic ridge gets breached and settles to SW, general quiet W flow. 

Week 2 - HP builds towards Scandinavia SE flow develops - cold pooling seeping W from Siberia

week 3 - Trigger deep LP moves NW/SE across UK advecting bitter cold that has built to NE towards the UK.  strong NE'ly flow develops as this LP moves into Benelux region.  This brings in the coldest winter episode of 2016/17.  HP to NE linking with the Atlantic ridge that builds behind the trigger LP, proibably the only period whereby HLB plays its part directly onto our locale.

week 4 - Continuation of very cold NE'ly flow. 

CET 2.5C

February

Month of two halves - January cold subsides as HP settles over Europe with light W flow.  If HP settles over us then cold nights and cool days

Second half - Displaced PV develops to ENE,N  Atlantic Ridge with strong N'ly feed.  

CET 4C.

 

BFTP

Fred to be fair you are one of the few to consistently go against HLB in December. Good luck to your forecast, Santa will delighted if your back third of December bears fruit, thanks.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cheers Bob.....like the rest though I risk that I could be barking up the wrong tree. Still it's great to see if we improve....or not.  

 

regards 

 

Fred

Edited December 2, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[VillagePlank]

I computed the Pearson Correlation for each year in the CET from Jan to Nov with 2016's Jan to Nov, and then ordered them by the highest score - the closest match. The predictions are simply the average of the top five; so going for normal to slightly warm CETs all winter. Of course, hoping for 1801/02 ....

Edited December 8, 2016 by VillagePlank

[Steeve88]

This is what we believe for the rest of this month. Unfortunately, azores anticyclone seems to be fairly obsessive. Further explanation and description can be found on the link below:

 

http://www.northmeteo.gr/analyseis-ektimiseis/average-circulation-for-the-rest-of-december/

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ok let's pop it in here.  Developments. 1st period of interest a flop as very stubborn and  strong HP gripped Europe.

Second watch period approaching and models very much liking the veey disturbed pattern.   For me any model that shows the strongest storm pattern then it is the one I'd go for.  This will be a weather prriod on the extreme side with disruption.  Be careful.

 

I believe there will be Strat Warming turn of the year in lower strat. Look for lag effect about Mid Jan.  

 

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

One of the better large-scale analogues at present is 1968-69. In North America at least the similarity is quite striking.

Not to say that the outcome will be similar in the UK to Jan-Feb 1969 but you could do worse for an analogue, it went from very mild in late January to bitter cold in much of February with a rather memorable polar low involved in the transition around the end of January. 

Looking at what's happening now in eastern Europe (widespread snow and bitter cold moving southwest towards Balkans and Italy), it suggests to me that any severe cold in Britain may have to wait for several stages of failed retrogression ending up with frontal boundaries around Holland to western Norway at times, plus a few incursions of rather cold mP sourced air masses. Now thinking that January might continue to oscillate with one or two very mild days thrown into a generally cool pattern, then it may begin to change to sustained cold very late in the month and into part of February if not maybe all of February. 

Seeing a colder Baltic that might influence sea temperatures in the North Sea within two weeks is a good sign, snow cover in Germany, Poland and Sweden can't hurt either. 

Anyway, would say watch for about two weeks of fairly significant cold with snow events, most likely between 28 Jan and 10 to 15 Feb. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Let's pop this in here

ECM sticking to the script and producing a prolonged cold spell.  This looks a 12+ day event and bearing in mind how when cold locks in it can take a while to shift.  I am definitely on the ECM side as it visually displays the gist of the set up I went for above with timing just about right now and it should go until end of the month.  (Look out for LP coming up from Biscay/France as the coldspell breaker about 27-30, but let's get the easterly in first). Model volatility does make one err on side of caution but this is looking really really good......

 

BFTP 

Edited January 10, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, even the GFS solution is fairly cold past the brief and minor warming around Sunday-Monday, would also say that parts of southeast England may get a bit of a winter wake-up call late tomorrow if energy buried in the jet stream activates. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

MJO not the driver here, if it was it would have forecast this back in early Dec. MJO if it plays a part is responding to main driver

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

MJO not the driver here, if it was it would have forecast this back in early Dec. MJO if it plays a part is responding to main driver

 

BFTP

And that would be what, Fred? The moon? Sunspots?

So why were all those 'main drivers' wrong, last week, when you praised the GFS 06Z, for being very accurate?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And that would be what, Fred? The moon? Sunspots?

So why were all those 'main drivers' wrong, last week, when you praised the GFS 06Z, for being very accurate?

Last week when it showed Armageddon Pete?  Of cse it was.....read between the lines mate and see when there is humour.  However, above is what it is, no changing that.   There is imo a main driver which is the sun and modulators like lunar, planetary and teleconnective patterns on our fair planet.  It is fair to say that nothing seemed to 'work' in December

 

BFTP

Edited January 11, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As ever with this country the exact cold set up is getting watered down.  The HP is settling further south.  I cannot see that changing now but overall a reasonable pattern from where we started.  So on we go, pretty cold but not quite the cold we were hoping for from the mod l output.....but saga not quite complete yet one thinks as this looks to be subsiding too quick for my liking as the main event.  I think we'll sort of go round in a circle again to a better bite in a week's time with an easterly/NE'ly on or just after next weekend....this is just sinking/ending too early....may be wrong but we are only 13th (and that is my hopefulness as we are still in week 2) and I do think a decent cold spell of 10-14 days is in the offing.  

 

BFTP

Edited January 13, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Turnedoutniceagain]

It's looking like a chilly one tonight. -4/-5c possible

[Steeve88]

This for early February. I think there might be something colder in the middle of the month but we will see:

http://www.northmeteo.gr/blog/estimated-circulation-in-europe-1-1022017/

[snowflakey]

Now that we've got a Scandy high showing by next weekend, and maybe a Greenland/NE block to look forward to, what's the betting that we will have northern blocking, and weather coming in from the N N/E well into March April time. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ok, models now showing the chances of blocking to our N/NE as we go into March.  Very interesting month.  I highlighted the other day when ECM produced a N Scandi block moving SW in FI that it may be one to watch.  My March punt is generally of that.  HP to develop build over us to become a Scandi block or even further north.  We are imo likely to see a lot of feed from a quadrant from NE/E/SE but also possibly the south.  So we could have a very cold month to one extreme to a very mild month the other end....but I think we will see contrasting wild swing temps.  We could get lucky but generally I think we will se blocking that we screamed for in mid winter

CET - can't decide but let's go 4c

 

BFTP 

 

Edited February 20, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST