The Seasonal Forecast Thread

[Man With Beard]

The ones you posted are probability charts - there are also ensemble mean charts, from which the images above have been taken. Link for all the seasonal products below.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks

My take on this - high confidence that low pressure will NOT be parked to the south of Iceland. Either southerly tracking lows, or more northerly tracking - the latter being more likely BASED UPON THIS LINK

[bluearmy]

the SST's to our west are predicted to remain below average. its a long way to winter but interesting to see UKMET, JAMSTEC and weatherbell all broadly on the same page at this juncture.

[Due South]

El nino not the Big Driver for UK Winter. Cold pool in Atlantic close to position in 2009. Much bigger factor ( Big Joe B ) Twitter

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Don't know whether this is the right section to post this, but I was wondering what members thought of this seasonal forecast?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGDzO92DqSM

 

If it's correct, going by where their line is drawn, I could either be wet, mild and stormy or more average with 8-20 snow days!

[Methuselah]

I like that guy: he doesn't pretend to know the unknowable, and makes a good case for his reasoning; neither does he forecast Snowmageddon every year...If there's one thing I'd question, however, it's that, with the PFJ running - on average - through the South Midlands, I'd expect Scotland to be colder than he suggests??? A 2001-type scenario perhaps?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I like that guy: he doesn't pretend to know the unknowable, and makes a good case for his reasoning; neither does he forecast Snowmageddon every year...If there's one thing I'd question, however, it's that, with the PFJ running - on average - through the South Midlands, I'd expect Scotland to be colder than he suggests??? A 2001-type scenario perhaps?

Thanks - from my limited understanding he seems reasonable (not a Madden), but I do wonder where his south/east dividing line leaves us - I think I'm to the north of it, but you must be under it!

[Methuselah]

Thanks - from my limited understanding he seems reasonable (not a Madden), but I do wonder where his south/east dividing line leaves us - I think I'm to the north of it, but you must be under it!

Nyet problyema...I am right on the 8 snow-days line...That's 7 more than last year and 8 more than 2014!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Nyet problyema...I am right on the 8 snow-days line...That's 7 more than last year and 8 more than 2014!

Same here!

[phil nw.]

I like that guy: he doesn't pretend to know the unknowable, and makes a good case for his reasoning; neither does he forecast Snowmageddon every year...If there's one thing I'd question, however, it's that, with the PFJ running - on average - through the South Midlands, I'd expect Scotland to be colder than he suggests??? A 2001-type scenario perhaps?

Yes Pete i like his style too- a down to earth but very knowledgable chap.

Dr. Simon Keeling MSc, PhD, RMet, FRMetS -taken from his own site.

 

Apart from his qualifications he is a self confessed weather nut which comes over in his well presented on line forecasts.He has done many forecasts on BBC Midlands in the past and like many of us has been interested in weather since a young age.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Yes Pete i like his style too- a down to earth but very knowledgable chap.

Dr. Simon Keeling MSc, PhD, RMet, FRMetS -taken from his own site.

 

Apart from his qualifications he is a self confessed weather nut which comes over in his well presented on line forecasts.He has done many forecasts on BBC Midlands in the past and like many of us has been interested in weather since a young age.

 

In today's video, he's discussing CFS temperature and wind anomalies - mean Jet Stream staying around the UK latitude during the winter months, though the temperature anomalies do suggest that his forecast of +0-+1C in the north and +1-+2 in the south might be a bit OTT:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhGUN_-GeFU

Edited September 22, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheforecaster

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

More long-range prognosticating from WeatherWeb:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hT2VCLiAKYo

[johnholmes]

thanks for that I will spend a little time looking first at the link you have given (thank you for that) and those I posted to see what I make of them. Again I will try and get an e mail off to Met although sadly it is so long since I retired I have no direct links into the senior forecasters or researchers.

 

sadly no reply from the long range folk

[johnholmes]

latest ENSO forecast

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Off topic but JH I have literally just read your sig......very important words and sincere regards timely or belated

 

BFTP

Edited October 8, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Nouska]

Some might be sceptical but I've a strong belief that the cycles of the Atlantic are modulated by the strengths of solar cycles. With that in mind, I've compiled a look at the last time the cycle was this weak and the Atlantic had a cold pool similar to what we have now.

 

The period is covered in the cycle graph below.

 

 

Then I've taken the Z500 composites from October through to February - this is just for fun and in no way constitutes a forecast as it is a blend of more than a decade in time with much variance in each year.

 

Oct     Nov    Dec      Jan    Feb 

[ZONE 51]

Have been looking at the data and am thinking about doing a LRF.

 

It's looking very interesting, the developing super strong El-Nino has added to the interest and mainly but not only this has got me to take a closer look at data to write a winter forecast.

 

Very briefly my early thoughts: 

 

Before Nov are input some data and info, but early indications are of a very cold spell possibly a big freeze by December and throughout the month.

 

November could be cold and snowy - widespread.

 

On the FAX charts / BBC weather I look out for increasing number of occluded fronts and cold fronts. Indicating more cold air, rather then mild sectors.

 

Flocks of birds (seagull type shape wide wing span slow wing thrusting) in theirs masses have been flying from the northeast over inland south east Eng (seen over my area) recently. I and sure many others noticed this during Oct 2010, before the big freeze of late Nov/Dec. They could be migrating/moving from the cold or developing cold / or sea temps, over Scandinavia.

 

Watching for blocking of Atlantic lows, this create more warmer air if they arrive to many early winter.

 

Looking out for strong high pressure over Scandinavia (scandi high)

 

(both already starting)

 

Sea/ocean temperatures around the south seas of Greenland (north Atl) (the low maker)

 

Sea/ocean temperatures in the Northsea of coast from Britain. (the snow maker)

 

North / East Europe snow cover, heavy snow is due to affect there this week, the more snow there the more the cold here. snow cover build up creates more cold pools making any easterly colder over Britain, the colder air and warmer north seas creates more snow, the snow cover also reflects sunlight.

 

Very few Atlantic lows (less warmth) plus above average east europe snow cover creates alot of cold air.

[Roger J Smith]

For those who are looking at the weak solar cycle analogue above, I would suggest that you check out which years from 1875 to 1914 had El Ninos, and compare those in particular. From memory I think there were several rather strong El Ninos in that generally weak solar period, 1876-78 and 1905-07 come to mind but as this is not my research focus and I will have an entirely separate forecast available soon, I would prefer to have those already into this line of thinking investigate this detail.

 

Is there any chance that you could show the sources for what you're claiming to be a similar cold pool in the North Atlantic that far back? I don't doubt it, but a source would be helpful for other researchers.

Edited October 12, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[Nouska]

Hi Roger, re the cold Atlantic temps, I've taken this from an AMO time series graph on a Met office powerpoint presentation.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/8/c/Changes_In_The_Climate_System.pdf

 

 

 

The ENSO historical series.      http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/

 

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

For those who are looking at the weak solar cycle analogue above, I would suggest that you check out which years from 1875 to 1914 had El Ninos, and compare those in particular. From memory I think there were several rather strong El Ninos in that generally weak solar period, 1876-78 and 1905-07 come to mind but as this is not my research focus and I will have an entirely separate forecast available soon, I would prefer to have those already into this line of thinking investigate this detail.

 

Is there any chance that you could show the sources for what you're claiming to be a similar cold pool in the North Atlantic that far back? I don't doubt it, but a source would be helpful for other researchers.

 

Just a quick one Roger, when is your winter forecast out (you usually release yours early)?  are you doing a joint effort with blast or a lone effort this year?

[Roger J Smith]

I am working on a forecast, actually I may have posted some thoughts already, can't remember what I said on the public internet and what I said in private chats, but whatever -- will make this forecast available later this week or next weekend at the latest. And if Fred wants to collaborate, then he can send me a PM with his ideas if it's not too early in the season, I will call it a collaboration if I find the ideas a plausible fit, if not I will let him know that we need to issue two separate forecasts. That can happen because our methods are not fully overlapping.

 

There's a forecast already circulating (somebody sent me a copy in a chat on the Irish weather site where I forecast) that sounds very similar to what I've been thinking and I will have to check back on my public posts to see if that could be just an echo (this happens) or somebody else's independently based concept, and if so, what basis it has and how much of that basis is an overlap of my methods, because as I say every winter, my approach is to expand my research base to account for any and all other paradigms that make any sense.

 

The sea surface temperature anomalies are very significant in both Atlantic and Pacific. This has to have some consequences for the winter patterns over the entire hemisphere. My philosophy is that the atmosphere can over-ride ocean signals, persistent flow from some other source region than the ocean to your west can negate whatever you would logically expect in a zonal flow. If there's a lot of zonal flow this winter, then obviously North America is going to have a very mild winter coast to coast because the Pacific air masses will be running 3-5 degrees above their normal air mass values. Winters like this sometimes have a bit of a sting in the tail, for example 1905-06 (which is where I was starting to go with my comments on the solar analogue). As for the Atlantic and Europe, a zonal pattern there would almost have to be stormy, when you blend these warmer than average air masses entering the long-wave trough with the colder than average maritime arctic air masses hanging around the central Atlantic.

 

So really this forecast all comes down to whether the winter has zonal flow or blocking. If there is any blocking, it would likely be very cold blocking for Europe because of the weak arctic signature likely in North America. The entire hemisphere can't be 3-5 degrees above normal.

 

I think you can almost guess what my forecast is going to say now, right?

[feb1991blizzard]

Cheers, your very much a solar man but my worries with declining solar activity in WQBO is will the stratosphere play ball? maybe we actually need a spike in solar activity to give us a chance of that jet digging south this side of the pond?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I am working on a forecast, actually I may have posted some thoughts already, can't remember what I said on the public internet and what I said in private chats, but whatever -- will make this forecast available later this week or next weekend at the latest. And if Fred wants to collaborate, then he can send me a PM with his ideas if it's not too early in the season, I will call it a collaboration if I find the ideas a plausible fit, if not I will let him know that we need to issue two separate forecasts. That can happen because our methods are not fully overlapping.

There's a forecast already circulating (somebody sent me a copy in a chat on the Irish weather site where I forecast) that sounds very similar to what I've been thinking and I will have to check back on my public posts to see if that could be just an echo (this happens) or somebody else's independently based concept, and if so, what basis it has and how much of that basis is an overlap of my methods, because as I say every winter, my approach is to expand my research base to account for any and all other paradigms that make any sense.

The sea surface temperature anomalies are very significant in both Atlantic and Pacific. This has to have some consequences for the winter patterns over the entire hemisphere. My philosophy is that the atmosphere can over-ride ocean signals, persistent flow from some other source region than the ocean to your west can negate whatever you would logically expect in a zonal flow. If there's a lot of zonal flow this winter, then obviously North America is going to have a very mild winter coast to coast because the Pacific air masses will be running 3-5 degrees above their normal air mass values. Winters like this sometimes have a bit of a sting in the tail, for example 1905-06 (which is where I was starting to go with my comments on the solar analogue). As for the Atlantic and Europe, a zonal pattern there would almost have to be stormy, when you blend these warmer than average air masses entering the long-wave trough with the colder than average maritime arctic air masses hanging around the central Atlantic.

So really this forecast all comes down to whether the winter has zonal flow or blocking. If there is any blocking, it would likely be very cold blocking for Europe because of the weak arctic signature likely in North America. The entire hemisphere can't be 3-5 degrees above normal.

I think you can almost guess what my forecast is going to say now, right?

Hi Roger ,

You make a lot sense there and it's certainly a different set up this year which is always exciting just simply because it's different .

North America have had 2 very cold winters recently but looking how different the sea temp set ups are this year makes for a very different year .

For me personally I agree and think the Pacific Ocean temps will give the states a mild winter . Remembering of course the ocean temps in the North Pacific off the west coast of North America/Canada has cooled off substantially recently so don't think the omega block will feature like it did the last 2 years running . Along with the super Nino in complete contrast to recent years .

I really feel Europe's gonna experience a cold winter , I think a very strong Russian block frequently migrating west toward Scandinavia after the turn of the year paritcualy , and yes at times (as much as 3 times) I think it will in some way effect our shores .

I think we will have zonal periods , but the jet will be forced under the block on many occasions , I think Germany/Poland are in for a really cold one I really do .

With northern blocking playing a major part in February migrating west toward Greenland .

Naturally we will always be on the edge of most European freezes so we will , as we normally do , have a zonal winter of sorts , but cold zonal bringing many wintry showers to many , cold zonal period bringing temps of -1c below the normal for an average zonal spell , so maybe 3/4'c in the south 2/3'c in the north , rather than 4-7'c respectively , interspersed by frequent marginal snow events for England , followed by 2-4 days of colder easterly winds from the continent , then rinse repeat for most of jan , but the Russian high mainly becoming a Scandinavian high as we go through feb , exerting more and more influence , so cold spells becoming more entrenched later on .

That's my thoughts , I know many no me to a snow lover and I am . But Iv never even attempted to air my winter thoughts before now , and im saying it as I see it this year .

The super El Niño, and ocean temp profile been our main drivers this year , with the Russian/Scandinavian high running a close second.

Please feel free to correct me/advise me guys .

Either way another fascinating winter coming up.

Edited October 13, 2015 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Roger J Smith]

The fascinating thing about long range forecasting at this point is that truthfully there is nobody in a position to advise or correct anybody else. Mind you, if somebody said "this pattern is screaming out loud the coldest winter on record in Oregon" then I think maybe that would be subject to a large chorus of derisive hooting.

 

I often wonder what would happen to the weather interest community if there came a time when reliable seasonal forecasting became available. I mean, there aren't many ocean tide forums are there?

 

Breaking news, Fred contacted me with some preliminary thoughts and I will very likely be in a position to make this a collaborative forecast, if only because I would like to have somebody to share the blame.

 

Now if that doesn't say confidence, I don't know what would.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The fascinating thing about long range forecasting at this point is that truthfully there is nobody in a position to advise or correct anybody else. Mind you, if somebody said "this pattern is screaming out loud the coldest winter on record in Oregon" then I think maybe that would be subject to a large chorus of derisive hooting.

 

I often wonder what would happen to the weather interest community if there came a time when reliable seasonal forecasting became available. I mean, there aren't many ocean tide forums are there?

 

Breaking news, Fred contacted me with some preliminary thoughts and I will very likely be in a position to make this a collaborative forecast, if only because I would like to have somebody to share the blame.

 

Now if that doesn't say confidence, I don't know what would.

 

I'd love to hear your thoughts on the Metoffice GLOSEA output....close to your thoughts?

[fergieweather]

I'd love to hear your thoughts on the Metoffice GLOSEA output....close to your thoughts?

 

So, broad continuity continues with overall themes (milder start to season; potential switch to colder/blocked 2nd half), but do bear in mind - as I was at pains to stress this evening when discussing this stuff on-air - that it's only 13 October; still much water to run under the bridge; plus the Seasonal Team at Exeter are yet to summarise the current output into public domain for D-J-F probabilistic purposes. The difficulty into 2nd half of winter is compounded, of course, by the fact that even a strong SSW signal yields only circa 2 weeks reliable lead time in GS5 - something no seasonal forecast can adequately accommodate at this range and still profess to be 'reliable' (not that D Express et al care). This, plus a variety of key, combining imponderables this winter in terms of global drivers, means waiting until nearer the start of December before pinning hats on where GS5, or for that matter EC Seasonal model, is presently taking us. Either way, it's an interesting and challenging period unfolding for the good folk at Hadley Centre.