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The Seasonal Forecast Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Personally I could easily see a summer similar to 2010 occurring. I sense heights over Europe will be strong this year, but at the same time a stronger than normal jet stream triggered by persistent low heights in the Atlantic, this aided by the cooler than average SSTs. As such a NW/SE split would probably be favoured. That said slightly changes could result in a cool/wet summer or a dry and very warm summer.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

for what it is worth below is the link to UK Met for this summer, their model output. They were more accurate than some for the winter!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

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  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

The analogues for this summer so far are 1972 and 1997. Would be interested to hear born from the void of other analogue matches.

That's still a very conflicting picture.  At 14.17C 1972 was a very cold summer though mostly due to one of the coldest Junes on record at 11.8C.  On the other hand at 16.57C 1997 was a very warm summer though mostly due to the second hottest August on record at 18.9C.

Edited by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

for what it is worth below is the link to UK Met for this summer, their model output. They were more accurate than some for the winter!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Can you decipher John...are they saying above 80% chance most of the world is going to be above average?  And is that the 60-90 average? 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Oh golly.. this aint gonna be a good one..

 

QBO

 

1982

1992

 

MEI

 

1997

1993

 

AO

 

2002

1967

 

PDO

 

1980

1978

 

..................

 

June:

 

QBO: 15.5-15.7

MEI: 14.1-15.0

AO: 14.0-14.4

PDO: 13.7-13.8

 

37.5% above average

62.5% below average

 

13.7-14.4

 

July:

 

QBO: 16.2-16.5

MEI: 15.2-16.7

AO: 16.0-16.7

PDO: 14.7-14.8

 

0% above average

75% below average

 

14.7-16.5

 

August:

 

QBO: 15.3-15.7

MEI: 14.6-18.9

AO: 15.7-17.0

PDO: 15.0-15.9

 

25% above average

75% below average

 

14.6-15.9

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Can you decipher John...are they saying above 80% chance most of the world is going to be above average?  And is that the 60-90 average? 

 

BFTP

 

I use the Europe version not the world. It is not easy to decide just what the % expectations are, to me the May issue suggested a touch above normal T and about normal for rain but that is my idea, you or others may see it differently!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I use the Europe version not the world. It is not easy to decide just what the % expectations are, to me the May issue suggested a touch above normal T and about normal for rain but that is my idea, you or others may see it differently!

Cheers John, I honestly couldn't really decipher it properly

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

and their June output, taking July-September; to me suggests T more likely above than below and rainfall more likely below than above. But perhaps that is too simplistic? Anyway the link is below

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

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  • 2 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Hi RJS, interesting factors this winter.  Solar cycle having peaked and declining, 'super' el nino [maybe modoki] event, west QBO, cold Atlantic..........a more all round potent winter 14/15 ?

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Here's an interesting clue, perhaps ... in my part of the world (British Columbia) we had very strong winds in the late autumn and early winter of 2006 (-07) but mostly in Nov-Dec 2006. And here's how sea surface temperatures looked then:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2006/anomnight.12.16.2006.gif

 

A very similar cold pool to our west, as you have this autumn. So my thinking is that this may help to energize the jet stream and make some of the westerly disturbances very intense for western Europe this winter.

 

Given the fact that North America is usually quite mild coast to coast in a strong El Nino, there again that might increase the chances for western Europe to become a favoured outflow region. It can't hurt the chances anyway.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Interesting if it becomes modoki as that promotes HP development NE into Greenland.  W QBO likely to surpress SSW events.

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Considering that we've only a few years' records to go on, what does a 'Modoki' have to do with anything?

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Interesting that we now have a 4th spotless day in a row.  I said the cycle peaked last year and we decline to a minima and onto a Grand Minima and maybe we are in a pivotal period...'maybe'.....Are we seeing a solar plunge or is this a blip?

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

In general terms, 1787 = 1989, 1801 = 2001 and 1816 = 2013 in the grand scheme of sunspot decline.

 

Or you could say 1870 = 1989, 1883 = 2001 and 1893 = 2013.

 

The records don't exactly superimpose but the declines from more active periods are similar.

 

There is a somewhat lesser chance that we are actually in the early stages of a more severe Maunder like decline too.

 

Any way you look at it, the chances gradually increase for colder winters to return if solar variability is the main driver, or as I tend to think, a coincidental fellow "effect" of the same causes (and saying that, I am aware that a quiet Sun is a weaker convective Sun).

 

The problem for forecasting in any given year is that, even in the Dalton, the Maunder and the quiet times around 1900, there were mild winters too. Not as many of them, but enough that we can't just flat out predict a cold winter every year.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Can't open that link Due South

 

Also anyone know why I can't reply to a post with the post on display?

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Can't open that link Due South

 

Also anyone know why I can't reply to a post with the post on display?

 

BFTP

 

Do you mean like this? As you probably know, you just click on Quote and get this screen for your response. Just in case, the Quote prompt is bottom right of the post you want to quote. But I suspect you know that so not sure what the problem could be. Mobile phone issues?

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Do you mean like this? As you probably know, you just click on Quote and get this screen for your response. Just in case, the Quote prompt is bottom right of the post you want to quote. But I suspect you know that so not sure what the problem could be. Mobile phone issues?

 

Hi RJS

Cheers mate for reply, it seems to have rectified itself.  The latest stuff posted re the Cooling Atlantic by BFTV, BW etc is very interesting indeed and has made me sit up re this winter somewhat

 

BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Personally I could easily see a summer similar to 2010 occurring. I sense heights over Europe will be strong this year, but at the same time a stronger than normal jet stream triggered by persistent low heights in the Atlantic, this aided by the cooler than average SSTs. As such a NW/SE split would probably be favoured. That said slightly changes could result in a cool/wet summer or a dry and very warm summer.

Just browsing back through this thread, wow, this was a fantastic forecast for the summer Captain!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

OK chaps, autumn would not be the same without some compelling evidence that we're heading for the most severe winter in living memory - don't know if this has been posted elsewhere but the bit of research in the link puts the coming winter on a par with 1963 ... read it and laugh/cry/ramp/be amazed as you feel fit!

http://www.chorleyweather.com/strong-arctic-summer-heights-linked-to-cold-uk-winter/

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Just browsing back through this thread, wow, this was a fantastic forecast for the summer Captain!

The research posted re AO in July and correlation is interesting. But seeing the AMO situation was very interesting as current situation is close to 62/3. Now before we get excited we have a big el nino which is different. But as we have seen in recent winters teleconnections that called for very favourable for cold set ups have been overidden or at least strongly influenced taking away great cold set ups. However, we enter a cusp imo and I am sitting up. I think we have a very lively autumn ahead re storm track as a starter

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland

The doomongers at it again,coldest winter since 62/63 etc, there are so many contrary indicators to back it up that I shall dream on and remember that lovely winter where snow was laying from boxing night to early March.

Edited by Rollo
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