Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The Seasonal Forecast Thread


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

welcome to another comic for Net Weather.

I was going to ask him to put his location in his profile, I'll do it for him (Cloud Cuckoo Land)  NUFF SAID!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

IT WILL BE A MILD wINTER.........WITH TEMPS AROUND 13C-15c  .....Less windy....and drier...........Early Spring .......should start second week of....February......................NUFF SAID.....

You can't fool me, I can see snow leaking out of that horse you have brought.  :rofl:

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I was going to ask him to put his location in his profile, I'll do it for him (Cloud Cuckoo Land)  NUFF SAID!

 

 

I was going to ask him to put his location in his profile, I'll do it for him (Cloud Cuckoo Land)  NUFF SAID!

 

 

I could do it for him - North Staffordshire!!!!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.

I was going to ask him to put his location in his profile, I'll do it for him (Cloud Cuckoo Land)  NUFF SAID!

If I remember correctly, it is Keele ;)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Well I trust the CFS v2 so if its to be believed that situation will more than likely happen, quite a lot of months they've been very accurate about, they were correct about the summer deluge of 2012 and the freezing cold march of 2013, as well as the hot July of 2013 and the 2 warm octobers on the trot.

 

Well I just hope the CFS v2 and many other models for that matter will come unstuck this time......  They cannot be ignored though.  If I remember correctly, the CFS accurately forecasted Winter 2009/10 and December 2010, too.

Edited by Don
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Well I just hope the CFS v2 and many other models for that matter will come unstuck this time......  They cannot be ignored though.

Yes Don the continual signal for a mild Winter from many LRF s bugs me somewhat.

I would have thought the pro.agencies have more data than we have and yet seem to come to different conclusions.

Not suggesting they will be correct but the number of recent LR forecasts going against what appear to be pretty good background signals for some thing colder makes one wonder.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

So all in all CFS have a pretty impressive track record in that case.

 

Perhaps, but I know some people don't rate it particularly highly.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I'm interested in some prelim thoughts of forecasters doing LRFs for winter 14/15 who are touting Jan as main winter month.  I currently foresee it as a disruptive month with LPs crashing into us so stormy at times but also some colder shots that don't really dig in as any block gets overrun.  However, if the early signs used for SSW to bring January cold strengthen/consolidate...then this winter has the hallmarks of longevity.

I have signals that suggest cold blocking will be about on and off through Dec but never really controlling too much...however, I believe that it could take hold...hence I'm holding a tad longer.  At the moment though as prelim in September periods of early cold interspersed by milder slots, overall average but active middle, blocked and very cold backend. 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Yes Don the continual signal for a mild Winter from many LRF s bugs me somewhat.

I would have thought the pro.agencies have more data than we have and yet seem to come to different conclusions.

Not suggesting they will be correct but the number of recent LR forecasts going against what appear to be pretty good background signals for some thing colder makes one wonder.

.

Absolutely Phil and I think that will make this a really fascinating winter.

IF, and it's still a huge if, the competing background signals do indeed prove to have correctly indicated a colder than average winter, some serious re-evaluation will surely be needed on the initialisation data for many of these models. Of course conversely it may throw out a lot of 'alternative' theories if we do see another milder than average season.

All theoretical right now, but a fascinating background story to what I'm sure will be another rollercoaster of a season!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hmm.... :nonono:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733

 

650x366_11031127_europe.jpg

 

Fewer Storms for Ireland, United Kingdom and France

Another aspect of the upcoming winter season is that large and widespread damaging wind events are expected to be less common than last winter, which featured several noteworthy storms that caused damage from the British Isles into northern Europe.

 

While occasional shots of cold air will send temperatures tumbling across Ireland, the United Kingdom and France early in the winter, a persistent southerly flow caused by storms tracking near and north of Scotland will often result in near- to above-normal temperatures.

 

Fewer storms tracking across the United Kingdom and Ireland into northern Europe will lead to below-normal precipitation overall for the winter season, following the wettest winter on record across the United Kingdom last year.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Perhaps someone from the technical team can emphasise this is the place to post official winter 2014/2015 forecasts - I fear they may get lost in amongst other threads - unless others think it appropriate to set up a new thread dedicated to winter 2014/2015 forecasts. Thoughts please..

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Perhaps someone from the technical team can emphasise this is the place to post official winter 2014/2015 forecasts - I fear they may get lost in amongst other threads - unless others think it appropriate to set up a new thread dedicated to winter 2014/2015 forecasts. Thoughts please..

 

I would like to post more about Judah Cohen, his winter forecast and some of my thoughts on the reliability of his (and other) winter forecasts. I am willing to start a new thread, or shall I continue on this one? Any suggestions?

 

This is one of many hindcasts (and forecasts) of the AER, the office Judah Cohen is working for, that I would like to discuss. 

 

5wPxat.jpg

 

[16 November 2014] In the coming days I will show you the hindcasts, until 2010. From 2011 onwards it will be a number of real-time forecasts, issued in November.

 

We received these hindcasts and forecasts from Judah Cohen, for an interview we conducted with him.

 

They nicely illustrate the reliability of his winterforecasts. 

 

 

 

Wn7kOQ.jpg

The winter forecasts of Judah Cohen are based on the SAI, the  Snow Advance Index, as well as some other indicators. More on this subject is to be found at http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/CohenandJones_GRL11.pdf

 

587o31.jpg

 

The hindcast for 2004 obviously is a failure, 2005 is much better, as are 2006, 2007 and 2008.

 

3NOqg8.jpg

 

 

qs2paQ.jpg

ruMl7s.jpg

 

PB9dCP.jpg

 

The forecasts clearly show less amplitude compared to the real-time temperatures. That's because 'it is a statistical model and all statistical models by design under-predict the amplitude of the anomalies.  That is because the model only captures a fraction of the variance and not 100% of the variance' (quote:Judah Cohen, email).

 

QFGL2F.jpg

 

2009 Was really wrong for Europe; a cold winter overall and a warm forecast, based on a relatively low SAI (little snow-advance). The forecast for the UK was OK.

 

The 1997-2013 SAI [data from Judah Cohen, email August 2014]

 

Raw:

[-0.41, -0.12, -0.68, 0.68, -0.07, 0.62, 0.16, -0.55, -0.37, -0.50, -1.44, -0.12, 2.30, -0.50, -0.17, 2.24, -1.07]

 

De-trended:

[-0.16, 0.10, -0.50, 0.83, 0.05, 0.72, 0.22, -0.52, -0.37, -0.53, -1.50, -0.21, 2.17, -0.66, -0.36, 2.02, -1.31]

 

Understandably, the hindcast for 2010 is much better.

 

 

mE01jL.jpg

 

The next four forecasts are real-time forecasts. They were issued after the 'discovery' of the SAI substantially improved the reliabilty of winter forecasting.

 

koaQO8.jpg

 

K49MKd.jpg

 

S8BcWn.jpg

 

XJBcSq.jpg

 

For the past several years Judah Cohen has been publishing the winter forecast on the National Science Foundation (NSF) website:

 

http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

Edited by Paul123
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

very best of luck with the forecast BFTP. I'd take that anytime. I like the idea of 18/19th Feb for a Blizzard as it will be the 37th anniversary of the Great Blizzard of 78 in the southwest.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastdene nr seaford
  • Weather Preferences: warm spring days and summer thunderstorms
  • Location: Eastdene nr seaford

Very easy......too see  nuff said

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Had to chuckle, I made a winter forecast on the SE thread using a few analogue years and background signals and came out with almost exactly the same forecast. Wet December, wintry January and a more varied February with the chance of a more anticyclonic flavour.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81168-south-east-england-east-anglia-central-southern-england-weather-discussion/page-84#entry3068117

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

The Judah Cohen winter forecast has been issued at http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

 

A really cold winter for most of Europe and the US. Take into account that the scale of the anomalies is being underestimated by the model.

 

5671305195d76339dcfc492448533d6b.jpg

 

' Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere in Dec-Jan-Feb 2014/2015 in degrees Celsius. The model is forecasting cold for much of the Central and Eastern United States and Northern Eurasia, with warm in Western North America, Southern Europe and North Africa. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Nino/Southern Oscillation anomalies and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. The strongest signal in the model is the October Siberian snow cover, which is the second highest ever observed in the record. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter.'  (Quote: Judah Cohen, AER, Inc.)

 

More on this subject at his recently updated blog: http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Edited by Paul123
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The Judah Cohen winter forecast has been issued at http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

 

A really cold winter for most of Europe and the US. Take in mind that the scale of the anomalies is being underestimated by the model.

 

5671305195d76339dcfc492448533d6b.jpg

 

Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere in Dec-Jan-Feb 2014/2015 in degrees Celsius. The model is forecasting cold for much of the Central and Eastern United States and Northern Eurasia, with warm in Western North America, Southern Europe and North Africa. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Nino/Southern Oscillation anomalies and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. The strongest signal in the model is the October Siberian snow cover, which is the second highest ever observed in the record. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter. (Credit: Judah Cohen, AER, Inc.)

 

More on this subject at his recently updated blog: http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

 

Excellent news, it will be interesting to see how the Netwether forecast compares when it comes out, given that it will be weighted heavily on all those ingredients above.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

I've posted this elsewhere in the media thread, but it's also appropriate here.

The met office has apparently forecasted a bitterly cold January in their 90 day outlook, according to the Belfast Telegraph:

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/weather-northern-ireland-facing-coldest-winter-since-2010-as-russian-beast-from-the-east-sweeps-in-30768218.html

Northern Ireland is bracing itself for the coldest winter since 2010 as a biting cold airflow, chillingly dubbed 'the beast from the east', will roll in from Russia.

The Baltic blasts are not expected until after Christmas, according to the Met Office 90-day forecast, but a taste of things to come is set to hit this week with the first freeze of the autumn set to take hold.

In a 90-day forecast, the Met Office predicted biting easterly winds in the New Year with the risk of freezing conditions

Several winter forecasts have been predicting a colder than normal January. Anyone else seen this Met Office 90 day forecast ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...