Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The Seasonal Forecast Thread


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Thanks Roger an excellent read albeit not one I hope bears any fruit, looking at the current North Atlantic SST'S  and if they stay as they are then your forecast will not be that far off. 

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

thanks Roger-as always we have to wait and see what mother nature sends our way.

An awful lot of work in your post though-many thanks

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

thanks Roger-as always we have to wait and see what mother nature sends our way.

An awful lot of work in your post though-many thanks

And not a million miles away from MR's effort in the MOD John, which you were quick to call 'silly'.  Personally I have no faith whatsover in LRF's, certainly not ones that go beyond 30 days and definately not ones that span 5 or 6 months. However that said all are equally valid imo, whether they be deeply researched and well presented, or one liners written on the back of a fag packet.

Edited by shedhead
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

And not a million miles away from SI's effort in the MOD John, which you were quick to call 'silly'.  Personally I have no faith whatsover in LRF's, certainly not ones that go beyond 30 days and definately not ones that span 5 or 6 months. However that said all are equally valid imo, whether they be deeply researched and well presented, or one liners written on the back of a fag packet.

It wasn't me shed, it was modelrollercoaster.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

And not a million miles away from MR's effort in the MOD John, which you were quick to call 'silly'.  Personally I have no faith whatsover in LRF's, certainly not ones that go beyond 30 days and definately not ones that span 5 or 6 months. However that said all are equally valid imo, whether they be deeply researched and well presented, or one liners written on the back of a fag packet.

 

I remain with my view shed as you do. My reason is Roger, for those prepared to plough through his old work, makes his forecast based on data NOT simply doing a one liner-can we drop it please?

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Thanks for the forecast Roger.  Unfortunately I'm struggling to muster up much enthusiasm for it!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

thanks Roger nice work. As much as i like your work i really hope this time your calling it wrong. Shedhead model rolacoster wasnt making a forecast he made a statement how w2013-2014 was over with rain and flooding before it even started. So jhon gave his view and i think it was a faire comment.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I'm still on the fence....although I have to say that a certain approximate 132 yr solar analogue cycle points RJS' way,

Best I book a ski holiday to get my 'fix' just in case Posted Image .  Mind you there is a grander cycle that indicates a serious freeze through jan and Feb.

Hats off to Roger again for his LRF, his theory is that it more or less generally remains the same however far out he posts his lrf... that's the system.

 

BFTP

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I thought I'd give an update on the Autumn forecast now that the data is available again.

 

I think September turned out quite well, and October is very much going to plan.

 

I'm going to change November though as the teleconnection trends suggest more of a high pressure influence, with a strong north Atlantic ridge and the low heights to our north (forecast back in August) weakening and retreating.

So the general pattern will change from:

 

this

Posted Image

 

to this

Posted Image

 

With the trough across south west Europe and the ridge leaning over the British Isles, this set up may increase the chances of an easterly flow across southern England, and with that, average or slightly below average temperatures there.  Further west and north suggests generally average, perhaps slightly above.

Precip is likely to be slightly below average to the west and average or slightly above in the east.

 

 

I've begun looking ahead to Winter also, and there seems to be a good signal for a mid Atlantic ridge and low heights to our east. Something of a reversal of the general pattern since June which has featured strong heights over Scandinavia.

I'll give a full Winter forecast next month though.

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

I've begun looking ahead to Winter also, and there seems to be a good signal for a mid Atlantic ridge and low heights to our east. Something of a reversal of the general pattern since June which has featured strong heights over Scandinavia.

I'll give a full Winter forecast next month though.

 

Not a particularly promising sign for coldies with a mid Atlantic ridge (for sustained cold at least).

Edited by Don
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Not a particularly promising sign for coldies with a mid Atlantic ridge (for sustained cold at least).

 

Well, to clarify, it's a mid-Atlantic/southern Greenland ridge (not quite a Greeny high). It has the potential to pull in some northerly flows anyway.

 

Here's a teaser of what December is looking like at the moment, though it may change very slightly when I do the full winter forecast next month

 

Posted Image

 

I think there's plenty of potential there anyway.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Well, to clarify, it's a mid-Atlantic/southern Greenland ridge (not quite a Greeny high). It has the potential to pull in some northerly flows anyway.

 

Here's a teaser of what December is looking like at the moment, though it may change very slightly when I do the full winter forecast next month

 

Posted Image

 

I think there's plenty of potential there anyway.

Ah, thanks for clarifying BFTV.  Not a bad signal then!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Well, to clarify, it's a mid-Atlantic/southern Greenland ridge (not quite a Greeny high). It has the potential to pull in some northerly flows anyway.

 

Here's a teaser of what December is looking like at the moment, though it may change very slightly when I do the full winter forecast next month

 

Posted Image

 

I think there's plenty of potential there anyway.

I'll take that BFTV, keep up the excellent work.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I thought I'd give an update on the Autumn forecast now that the data is available again.

 

I think September turned out quite well, and October is very much going to plan.

 

I'm going to change November though as the teleconnection trends suggest more of a high pressure influence, with a strong north Atlantic ridge and the low heights to our north (forecast back in August) weakening and retreating.

So the general pattern will change from:

 

this

Posted Image

 

to this

Posted Image

 

With the trough across south west Europe and the ridge leaning over the British Isles, this set up may increase the chances of an easterly flow across southern England, and with that, average or slightly below average temperatures there.  Further west and north suggests generally average, perhaps slightly above.

Precip is likely to be slightly below average to the west and average or slightly above in the east.

 

 

I've begun looking ahead to Winter also, and there seems to be a good signal for a mid Atlantic ridge and low heights to our east. Something of a reversal of the general pattern since June which has featured strong heights over Scandinavia.

I'll give a full Winter forecast next month though.

I'll post my Nov thoughts probably by Monday BFTV, interesting that out Oct weren't too dissimilar and maybe a little surprise still to come with beefiness of LPs.  I have an interesting Nov outlook.  Dec looks a corker on youur early analysis....I'd take that.

 

BFTP

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Not a particularly promising sign for coldies with a mid Atlantic ridge (for sustained cold at least).

A mid Atlantic ridge is certainly no bad thing in that even if we see it struggle to build over Greenland it will generally produce dry weather and northerly topplers.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

A mid Atlantic ridge is certainly no bad thing in that even if we see it struggle to build over Greenland it will generally produce dry weather and northerly topplers.

 

A recurrent mid atlantic ridge is bound to produce some cold spells at times over the course of a winter but I really hate those round things with 7c and sun and minimums of -1c that just bring around tropical air a bit diluted. it depends on how far West, how far North and the orientation of them TBH.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

A recurrent mid atlantic ridge is bound to produce some cold spells at times over the course of a winter but I really hate those round things with 7c and sun and minimums of -1c that just bring around tropical air a bit diluted. it depends on how far West, how far North and the orientation of them TBH.

That was pretty much Nov 04 to Jan 05 (bar a brief Bartlett period and the Scottish storms), that was a result of a constant high just to the south west, we did see pressure finally build in late Feb though as the easterly returned. A much better winter was the following winter of 06 which saw a good stream of northerly topplers and the high sat right on top.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

That was pretty much Nov 04 to Jan 05 (bar a brief Bartlett period and the Scottish storms), that was a result of a constant high just to the south west, we did see pressure finally build in late Feb though as the easterly returned. A much better winter was the following winter of 06 which saw a good stream of northerly topplers and the high sat right on top.

November 2004 to January 2005 was terrible for the south.  Winter 2004/05 was saved from being a stinker by February.  Just a great shame that Europe had been so mild meaning that the prolonged cold spell failed to deliver as much as it could have done.  Winter 2005/06 may have been the coldest since 1996/97 but for the south it was dry with little in the way of snow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

November 2004 to January 2005 was terrible for the south.  Winter 2004/05 was saved from being a stinker by February.  Just a great shame that Europe had been so mild meaning that the prolonged cold spell failed to deliver as much as it could have done.  Winter 2005/06 may have been the coldest since 1996/97 but for the south it was dry with little in the way of snow.

 

It snowed on Boxing Day 2004 in South Wales :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I thought I'd give an update on the Autumn forecast now that the data is available again.

 

I think September turned out quite well, and October is very much going to plan.

 

I'm going to change November though as the teleconnection trends suggest more of a high pressure influence, with a strong north Atlantic ridge and the low heights to our north (forecast back in August) weakening and retreating.

So the general pattern will change from:

 

this

Posted Image

 

to this

Posted Image

 

With the trough across south west Europe and the ridge leaning over the British Isles, this set up may increase the chances of an easterly flow across southern England, and with that, average or slightly below average temperatures there.  Further west and north suggests generally average, perhaps slightly above.

Precip is likely to be slightly below average to the west and average or slightly above in the east.

 

 

I've begun looking ahead to Winter also, and there seems to be a good signal for a mid Atlantic ridge and low heights to our east. Something of a reversal of the general pattern since June which has featured strong heights over Scandinavia.

I'll give a full Winter forecast next month though.

 

I thought I'd give an update on the Autumn forecast now that the data is available again.

 

I think September turned out quite well, and October is very much going to plan.

 

I'm going to change November though as the teleconnection trends suggest more of a high pressure influence, with a strong north Atlantic ridge and the low heights to our north (forecast back in August) weakening and retreating.

So the general pattern will change from:

 

this

Posted Image

 

to this

Posted Image

 

With the trough across south west Europe and the ridge leaning over the British Isles, this set up may increase the chances of an easterly flow across southern England, and with that, average or slightly below average temperatures there.  Further west and north suggests generally average, perhaps slightly above.

Precip is likely to be slightly below average to the west and average or slightly above in the east.

 

 

I've begun looking ahead to Winter also, and there seems to be a good signal for a mid Atlantic ridge and low heights to our east. Something of a reversal of the general pattern since June which has featured strong heights over Scandinavia.

I'll give a full Winter forecast next month though.

I meant to say yeaterday, but didn't get around to, that your modified November H500 analogue fits in very nicely with what I expect to see as well. I expect November to be characterized by a stronger PV though but with a strong Atlantic ridge also with the positive anomaly stretching towards the UK - and I have used completely different analogue years to formulate mine. However, December's anomaly chart differs completely - but if the November anomaly chart holds true then there will be the opportunity for cold snaps to develop around the back of the Atlantic ridge. Sometimes ( like now!)

 

post-4523-0-12347700-1382215583_thumb.pn

 

a southern Greenland based positive anomaly (ridge) doesn't deliver anyway and we actually need that positive anomaly to stretch down into the Atlantic!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...