The Seasonal Forecast Thread

[Gaz1985]

TBH If December has below average rainfall then I very much doubt it will be a warm December, Even one of those dreaded circular highs anchored to the West of us wouldn't produce a very warm December due to the low strength of the sun, it would need to be the ridging North of a Bartlett and even then it might only be dry for the South.

 

Wouldn't be warm due to how far North the UK is due to sun angle etc but might be a Bartlett high influencing us? that would bring drier than average weather and probably mild weather. Still a long long way off though in weather terms.

Edited August 31, 2013 by Gaz1985

[feb1991blizzard]

Wouldn't be warm due to how far North the UK is due to sun angle etc but might be a Bartlett high influencing us? that would bring drier than average weather and probably mild weather. Still a long long way off though in weather terms.

 

I still think think with anticyclonic SWerlies you can still get night temps near freezing so it would only be a smidgeon above average.

[Summer Sun]

I've never had a go a doing a LRF so don't shoot me down

 

I have no idea what this winter will bring like everyone else but my early thoughts are

 

December - slightly warmer than average

 

January - slightly cooler than average though some northern parts of England and western parts of Northern Ireland may come in at average

 

February - slightly cooler than average for Scotland and around average else where

 

As a whole I think temperatures this winter will come in around average for the United Kingdom it's likely to be the mildest winter since the winter of 2011 / 2012 but not as mild as 2007 / 08

 

For precipitation I think we will have a drier than average winter with precipitation slightly lower than normal for all but Ireland (all of) and maybe parts of Scotland where It could be average

 

I know its not technical I shall leave that to the more experienced folk

 

I shall review this again over the coming weeks

[snowking]

Something to keep an eye on - solar activity has absolutely plummeted in the last few days. Of course it will likely rebound once again in the next week or so, but as of yesterday only 13 spots were observed. I have started keeping a track of this and here is the data from the last 35 days or so:

 

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Something to keep an eye on - solar activity has absolutely plummeted in the last few days. Of course it will likely rebound once again in the next week or so, but as of yesterday only 13 spots were observed. I have started keeping a track of this and here is the data from the last 35 days or so:

 

solarcount.png

not a lot to see...but here is todays spot

[snowking]

not a lot to see...but here is todays spot mdi_sunspots.jpg

Yep activity remaining really rather low. It will be many weeks yet before we are able to determine the trend, but with activity so low at the moment (the lowest since the start of the current cycle) it is beginning to look as though cycle 24 may have already double-peaked...which means we could be in for a longer slumber (similar to the end of cycle 23) than expected. Here's the latest graph tracking the activity:

 

 

SK

[virtualsphere]

The most significant part of the Autumn forecast for me remains the story carrying over from the very early thoughts based around the summer composite years - and this is of the continuing strong signal for a very settled October. After an unsettled start, it looks as though it will be high pressure dominated.

 

SK -  I was interested to read your suggestion as far back as the spring for a settled October based on the composites, and having read your recent post in the Model thread suggesting an unsettled start with currently no strong signal from the MJO after this, I just wondered if these analogues still stood based on the most recent data?

 

A few others also mentioned a settled October quite a while ago, which stood out to me as it's unusual to see such agreement in the long range.

[snowking]

SK -  I was interested to read your suggestion as far back as the spring for a settled October based on the composites, and having read your recent post in the Model thread suggesting an unsettled start with currently no strong signal from the MJO after this, I just wondered if these analogues still stood based on the most recent data?

 

A few others also mentioned a settled October quite a while ago, which stood out to me as it's unusual to see such agreement in the long range.

Hi VS.

 

Yes its going to be an interesting test of the analogue years over the next few weeks. As mentioned in the model thread up until now the general trend with the absence of tropical forcing has been for ridging to take charge after a slight lag time (usually around 3-10 days). The most recent update of my Autumn forecast (from August) was suggestive of an unsettled start, but for high pressure then to build sometime around the 5-10th October.

 

At present, given the MJO signal, this still very much stands, but it all now depends on what sort of 'base state' we encounter with the lack of tropical activity, with both MJO and GWO signals set to tail off.

 

So for now yes this still stands, but I would suggest this is the meteorological equivalent of squeaky bum time!

 

SK

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yep activity remaining really rather low. It will be many weeks yet before we are able to determine the trend, but with activity so low at the moment (the lowest since the start of the current cycle) it is beginning to look as though cycle 24 may have already double-peaked...which means we could be in for a longer slumber (similar to the end of cycle 23) than expected. Here's the latest graph tracking the activity:

 

solarcount.png

 

SK

Very interesting, I think we have peaked in this cycle and we head further down.  Cycle 25 will likely be 'comparatively' non existent.  That is the train of thought and one Landscheidt forecast and what I bought into over 10 years ago.  Thus far his prediciton is looking really good.  If the cycles are a 'real driver' then we are heading for a double step down and I for one think Dalton minima 'at least'. 

A certain person I know way back in 2006/7 predicted that by 2010 - 18 we'd fall into pattern where winters of the 40s to 70s would be experienced, then a flat line and then during the 2020s we'd experience Dickensian style winters.  Well the first part of the puzzle is falling nicely into place.

 

BFTP

[snowking]

Very interesting, I think we have peaked in this cycle and we head further down. Cycle 25 will likely be 'comparatively' non existent. That is the train of thought and one Landscheidt forecast and what I bought into over 10 years ago. Thus far his prediciton is looking really good. If the cycles are a 'real driver' then we are heading for a double step down and I for one think Dalton minima 'at least'. A certain person I know way back in 2006/7 predicted that by 2010 - 18 we'd fall into pattern where winters of the 40s to 70s would be experienced, then a flat line and then during the 2020s we'd experience Dickensian style winters. Well the first part of the puzzle is falling nicely into place.BFTP

I certainly agree with regards to Landscheidt and I think should these projections prove indeed to be correct this will likely become known as the Landscheidt minimum.I think what we do have to do to a certain extent is temper our expectations a little. Whilst I don't necessarily buy in to the idea of AGW per se, for whatever reason be it CO2, Solar, CFC's (I saw a very good paper a while back based around the idea of reduced CFC's leading to warming) or even because God left the thermostat up a little bit too high, we are entering (or have already entered) this period with temperatures higher than, as far as we know, they were before either the Maunder or Dalton minimums.Now of course we could well see a really rapid decline over the next 30 or so years which delves us back in to something like the state of affairs experienced back then, but at the moment to this extent I think that whilst spells like December 2010 will come around again more frequently than some climatologists might have us believe, it might not get quite as extreme as the Dalton minimum.I have, however, been wrong before...at least once anyway :)Either way though I should imagine quite a few questions will be asked in the coming years about economic policy etc when it comes to weather. For all the money we continue to spend on supposedly cutting our CO2 emissions to save the world, I am sure we could have invested in, for example, better flood defences and adequate snow clearing equipment to keep us all moving.There's always a plus side to things though....I get a lot more MPG out of a car than I would have done 10 years agoSK Edited September 21, 2013 by snowking

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I certainly agree with regards to Landscheidt and I think should these projections prove indeed to be correct this will likely become known as the Landscheidt minimum.we are entering (or have already entered) this period with temperatures higher than, as far as we know, they were before either the Maunder or Dalton minimums.Now of course we could well see a really rapid decline over the next 30 or so years which delves us back in to something like the state of affairs experienced back then, but at the moment to this extent I think that whilst spells like December 2010 will come around again more frequently than some climatologists might have us believe, it might not get quite as extreme as the Dalton minimum.There's always a plus side to things though....I get a lot more MPG out of a car than I would have done 10 years agoSK

 

 

Indeed we are at higher point than the Dalton but not so sure about the Maunder as MWP I believe was as high if not higher.  Anyway, my main point is that Landscheidt IS already on schedule and I'm just waiting to see if it continues to be correct.

 

BFTP

 

[Isolated Frost]

Latest update for my October-November f'cast as same, will go for the winter one in early early November. Same pattern, slight adjustment as Sep AO seems to be dipping negative; drier, mild-average October accompanied by a much colder and potentially wintry November...

[Nights King]

My Punt at a seasonal forecast is as follows -

 

December - close to average temperatures with rainfall around normal along with a couple of snow events predominantly for hills and mountains of England and wales but not exclusively.

 

January - slightly colder than average with a couple of widespread snow events for lowland England with Kent being badly affected, then few frosty days with -18c possible in Scotland and -15c in wales but no ice floes this year so feel free to get your canoe's out.

 

February - Milder than average after a Chilly first week with a couple of snow events before it becomes mild for the last half with higher than average rainfall in some western areas.

 

Please save this I'd like to know if it is worth me selling one next year .

 

[Captain Shortwave]

I might as well throw my hat into the ring here, warning this prediction was made after a few cans of Hobgobblin

Posted 13 September 2013 - 22:06

nice, I've taken a slight stab at things.

October - drier and warmer than average, perhaps the leading steps to a blocked Arctic, probably winds from a southerly quadrant hence the prediction overall.

November - a lot of models back this month to be cold, also potentially average to above average precipitation. Perhaps the wildcard month. Maybe some significant snowfall.

December - possibly the hardest to predict temperature wise. So I'm gunning high pressure over us, temperatures will vary widely, western areas might see above average temperatures, but eastern areas may be cold and foggy for  good part of the month.

January/February - The Steve Murr factor suggests colder than average months, but snow factor, not sure to be honest. 

 

October so far looks a pretty good prediction to be honest considering the first week is likely to have winds from the south or south west.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm in a two minds at this early stage.  I hear RJS feels a +ve NAO set up likely for Jan/Feb [i have to take that very seriously], a certain astrophysicist's theoretical 132yr solar/lunar analogue suggests a possibly mild Jan/Feb so maybe in line with RJS early thoughts....however, even longer term cycles coupled with a downward spiral of sunspots and a possible grand minimum, perturbation cycle of la nina dominance, with a jetstream disrupted/meridional/shifted south to me suggest the opposite.  Shorter cycles can and do get engulfed and 'overridden' by the grander cycles which become more 'noise' in the grand scheme of things.  However, 11/12 is a good example that cold all the way isn't a given.

So fortunately some thinking time before I take the plunge but suffice to say the jetstream change is IMO the bigger player here and its continued behaviour or not, will mould our winter.  The bigger cycles and low solar activity suggest it will continue in its behaviour of recent years.

 

 

BFTP

Edited October 8, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Roger J Smith]

I'm going to wait until around the 20th to make a final call, my usual schedule was disrupted by almost a month away from home in September on legal matters, so I have had very little time to examine the recent data or get back in touch with my rather complicated research files.

 

This current pattern could rather easily evolve into a blocking Euro-high and the problem being that retrograde index is peaking about now and won't peak again until mid-January so that if the current high just drifts back to where it was a week ago, it won't have a lot of pressure on it to retrogress again for a good portion of the winter.

 

I have said that a part of mid-January could be much colder than the rest of the winter from my research output, so I'm not really backing a mild winter end to end, just a rather mild winter with one notable cold spell. That would not be a lot different from 2011-12 except for earlier timing of the cold.

 

As to solar activity, I think it's likely that the current cycle will reach its rather flabby (smoothed data) peak some time in the next year, although its monthly or daily maximum may have already occurred in 2012. That's only a background indicator anyway, the best analogue for this cycle would appear to be the peak around 1883 and that period's weather or climate record was distorted by volcanic dust and a much different set-up of the north magnetic pole 1,500 km southeast of where it is today.

 

Maybe when I get some time to look into the data in more detail I may be more enthusiastic about a severe winter but at the moment feel that the chances are better in eastern North America than western Europe.

[UV-RAY]

I'm going to wait until around the 20th to make a final call, my usual schedule was disrupted by almost a month away from home in September on legal matters, so I have had very little time to examine the recent data or get back in touch with my rather complicated research files.

 

This current pattern could rather easily evolve into a blocking Euro-high and the problem being that retrograde index is peaking about now and won't peak again until mid-January so that if the current high just drifts back to where it was a week ago, it won't have a lot of pressure on it to retrogress again for a good portion of the winter.

 

I have said that a part of mid-January could be much colder than the rest of the winter from my research output, so I'm not really backing a mild winter end to end, just a rather mild winter with one notable cold spell. That would not be a lot different from 2011-12 except for earlier timing of the cold.

 

As to solar activity, I think it's likely that the current cycle will reach its rather flabby (smoothed data) peak some time in the next year, although its monthly or daily maximum may have already occurred in 2012. That's only a background indicator anyway, the best analogue for this cycle would appear to be the peak around 1883 and that period's weather or climate record was distorted by volcanic dust and a much different set-up of the north magnetic pole 1,500 km southeast of where it is today.

 

Maybe when I get some time to look into the data in more detail I may be more enthusiastic about a severe winter but at the moment feel that the chances are better in eastern North America than western Europe.

Sounds thoroughly  depressing if it turns out like 11/12 Roger, still  I'm more optimistic this coming winter than the previous two so  I'll be hoping you report back with better news later in the month.

[Summer Sun]

I'm going to wait until around the 20th to make a final call, my usual schedule was disrupted by almost a month away from home in September on legal matters, so I have had very little time to examine the recent data or get back in touch with my rather complicated research files.

 

This current pattern could rather easily evolve into a blocking Euro-high and the problem being that retrograde index is peaking about now and won't peak again until mid-January so that if the current high just drifts back to where it was a week ago, it won't have a lot of pressure on it to retrogress again for a good portion of the winter.

 

I have said that a part of mid-January could be much colder than the rest of the winter from my research output, so I'm not really backing a mild winter end to end, just a rather mild winter with one notable cold spell. That would not be a lot different from 2011-12 except for earlier timing of the cold.

 

As to solar activity, I think it's likely that the current cycle will reach its rather flabby (smoothed data) peak some time in the next year, although its monthly or daily maximum may have already occurred in 2012. That's only a background indicator anyway, the best analogue for this cycle would appear to be the peak around 1883 and that period's weather or climate record was distorted by volcanic dust and a much different set-up of the north magnetic pole 1,500 km southeast of where it is today.

 

Maybe when I get some time to look into the data in more detail I may be more enthusiastic about a severe winter but at the moment feel that the chances are better in eastern North America than western Europe.

 

Hope your right Roger that would do me nicely

 

[Recretos]

Well, for all the lovers of analog forecasting, here is a special treat for you.

 

Using the automated constructed SST analog method.

The original description: " The construction is a linear combination of past observed anomaly patterns in the predictor fields such that the combination is as close as desired to the initial state (or 'base'). We use as our predictor (the analogue selection criterion) the leading EOFs of the global SST field for consecutive 3-month periods during the year prior to forecast time. Data extending from 1955 to the present are used for a priori skill evaluation under cross-validation (CV)."

 

To interpret the process above : Check current SST/ocean conditions over a certain period - check back in time time find a similar setup - create a composite of the years that have the best match.

Of course there are other processes involved, but just to make it easier to understand the very basic idea.  

 

 

 

 

Now last year, this system was quite good, at least in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

These images are self explanatory. What this system is trying to do this year, is to force in another neg. NAO episode with an average/final feel similar to the last winter. But we all know what the "game" is on a local scale, under these huge 3-month means. 

 

Best regards.

 

[forecaster]

Well, for all the lovers of analog forecasting, here is a special treat for you.

 

Using the automated constructed SST analog method.

The original description: " The construction is a linear combination of past observed anomaly patterns in the predictor fields such that the combination is as close as desired to the initial state (or 'base'). We use as our predictor (the analogue selection criterion) the leading EOFs of the global SST field for consecutive 3-month periods during the year prior to forecast time. Data extending from 1955 to the present are used for a priori skill evaluation under cross-validation (CV)."

 

 

Check out how it did for the winter of 2009/2010. Badly. It doesn't claim high skill in the mid-latitudes anyway. I would like to dig deeper and see exactly what analogues it chooses. Right now I don't see anything resembling the -NAO type tripole in SSTs in the Atlantic. It looks like just the opposite. 

 

 

Edited October 10, 2013 by forecaster

[Recretos]

Well, to make it clear: I am just presenting this, not defending it.   I agree with you.

I posted it because I think that since the analog forecasting is quite popular, some might find this automated system interesting. For any further discussions about this "model" (which isn't really a model at all), please contact Mr. den Dool over email.

 

I will finish off with a fairly interesting current SSt setup.

 

Regards

Edited October 10, 2013 by Recretos

[forecaster]

Well, to make it clear: I am just presenting this, not defending it.   I agree with you.

I posted it because I think that since the analog forecasting is quite popular, some might find this automated system interesting. For any further discussions about this "model" (which isn't really a model at all), please contact Mr. den Dool over email.

 

I will finish off with a fairly interesting current SSt setup.

 

Regards

 

I really like the way their graphics are presented. Do you have to subscribe to WeatherBELL for that?

[Recretos]

Yes. They have two options: Monthly and annual subscription. You can check the pricing and other information at their site.

[cheeky_monkey]

Well, for all the lovers of analog forecasting, here is a special treat for you.

 

Using the automated constructed SST analog method.

The original description: " The construction is a linear combination of past observed anomaly patterns in the predictor fields such that the combination is as close as desired to the initial state (or 'base'). We use as our predictor (the analogue selection criterion) the leading EOFs of the global SST field for consecutive 3-month periods during the year prior to forecast time. Data extending from 1955 to the present are used for a priori skill evaluation under cross-validation (CV)."

 

To interpret the process above : Check current SST/ocean conditions over a certain period - check back in time time find a similar setup - create a composite of the years that have the best match.

Of course there are other processes involved, but just to make it easier to understand the very basic idea.  

 

 

 

 

Now last year, this system was quite good, at least in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

These images are self explanatory. What this system is trying to do this year, is to force in another neg. NAO episode with an average/final feel similar to the last winter. But we all know what the "game" is on a local scale, under these huge 3-month means. 

 

Best regards.

thje top charts seem to say DJF 2015 so that would be next winter not this one?

[Recretos]

It is for 13/14, becasue it is a 3 month lead from september 2013. That is just a text error.

Edited October 11, 2013 by Recretos