The Seasonal Forecast Thread

[Ice BIast]

Doesn't that highlight the problem of trying to use macro techniques at the micro level?

Indeed this is a problem. I just think though that GP's forecast shouldn't be called "a bust", as he forecasted the general pattern well, and for anyone to expect him to forecast things down to fine detail from at least a couple of weeks away is just silly. Remember that just a tiny shortwave made a big difference to our weather during the height rises to the NE, something that cannot be forecast by any long range forecaster.

Edited December 24, 2012 by lce Blast

[UV-RAY]

Indeed this is a problem. I just think though that GP's forecast shouldn't be called "a bust", as he forecasted the general pattern well, and for anyone to expect him to forecast things down to fine detail from at least a couple of weeks away is just silly. Remember that just a tiny shortwave made a big difference to our weather, something that cannot be forecast by any long range forecaster.

I know it's harsh to call it bust as I appreciate the amount of effort GP puts into his forecast, but we have to judge it on what happens in the UK as with all LRF. Remember some are quick to put the boot into others LRF when they also don't pan out, so we should all be on a level playing field in that respect. Steve Murr has the right idea in keeping forecasts on a monthly basis, there are far too many variables for things to go wrong on this tiny island so keeping things monthly removes a lot of these.

[Roger J Smith]

I would agree that all talk of forecast ratings should be held back to the end of the season. We all jumped the gun a bit last year and had to do a rethink about late February's wording in various forecasts too. But we aren't even in sight of half time yet and in any case meteorological winter is probably something more like 8 Dec to 7 Mar -- there was something to be said for the astronomical seasons as well as the three-month climat seasons but if I had my wish the four seasons would start on the 8th of the various months -- I think this comes closest to how they actually work out. Maybe even 11th to following 10th.

Can say that I have been checking all my index values and looking at one new one that I developed which really puts a strong emphasis on this late winter cold spell in my outlook. Almost all the record cold values for February fall into the roughly one-sixth of all cases that are picked up in my various index values, so I remain optimistic that the severe cold will come after a long, slow and perhaps stalled for weeks retrogression of the obvious source, to be delivered in February. I am not even that confident of an arrival by 31 Jan looking at all data I would say it may be just creeping in about then but the core of the cold will be around middle of February lasting well into March with a sudden thaw and reversal at that point.

Despite weeks of rather mild weather that seem inevitable before the event, it could become disruptively cold and snowy. So little or no change in my overall outlook, not sure which of the many threads this was originally stated, but CET values something like 5-6 in Jan and very low in Feb, I said 2 to be conservative but my output suggests range of -2 to +1.

[UV-RAY]

I think any LRF should stand and fall on it's own merit but that shouldn't stop anyone producing them, more so here on net weather who have some of the best LRF in the business.

[Tom Quintavalle]

I would agree that all talk of forecast ratings should be held back to the end of the season. We all jumped the gun a bit last year and had to do a rethink about late February's wording in various forecasts too. But we aren't even in sight of half time yet and in any case meteorological winter is probably something more like 8 Dec to 7 Mar -- there was something to be said for the astronomical seasons as well as the three-month climat seasons but if I had my wish the four seasons would start on the 8th of the various months -- I think this comes closest to how they actually work out. Maybe even 11th to following 10th.

Can say that I have been checking all my index values and looking at one new one that I developed which really puts a strong emphasis on this late winter cold spell in my outlook. Almost all the record cold values for February fall into the roughly one-sixth of all cases that are picked up in my various index values, so I remain optimistic that the severe cold will come after a long, slow and perhaps stalled for weeks retrogression of the obvious source, to be delivered in February. I am not even that confident of an arrival by 31 Jan looking at all data I would say it may be just creeping in about then but the core of the cold will be around middle of February lasting well into March with a sudden thaw and reversal at that point.

Despite weeks of rather mild weather that seem inevitable before the event, it could become disruptively cold and snowy. So little or no change in my overall outlook, not sure which of the many threads this was originally stated, but CET values something like 5-6 in Jan and very low in Feb, I said 2 to be conservative but my output suggests range of -2 to +1.

Hi Roger,

Really like reading your posts. Would your forecasting criteria look at possible analogue winter seasons?

Your CET predictions sound very close to Jan and Feb 1969, are you expecting Jan. to develop a west based -NAO pattern, then to flip to a more central/east based -NAO pattern?

Regards,

Tom.

[Roger J Smith]

The statistical profile for the CET looks similar, but I think the source of the cold will be more easterly than northerly when push comes to shove in February. I would point to 1953-54 as having some similarity also, as the North American forecast tends to be closer to that analogue than 1968-69 (which had unusual blocking patterns there all winter, so far this winter it has been a rather mundane zonal pattern over here with a strong feedback signal from early snow cover in west-central Canada that is having more impact on surface than upper patterns). In my North American forecast I am going for variable and stormy in January in the northeast states, and mild to very mild in February. We have had snow cover here for the past week but today it has largely melted despite continued below normal temperatures, just not quite cold enough. I'm not a huge proponent of AGW but if it has any impact I think it's in these marginal situations, this snow might have persisted a few more days with unknown ripple effects on regional then hemispheric climate. But whether these changes are profound or marginal remains the debate.

[Peter H]

I always live in hope since the winter of 1947 (one my dad always talks about) didn't start until the 21st January.

However, once you pass that stage you might as well forget it. Mid February onwards the sun is always too strong for good snow, usually, and especially in a winter like this where the trends do seem to favour the Atlantic. '93/94 was the exception in recent years, if I remember correctly, with a good dollop of snow late January and mid February.

Still, you never know, but the models don't look promising at this stage. This is shaping up to be a real stinker.

The only positives are I haven't needed oil for quite a while. On the downside it looks as if my grass needs cut. I think that's a good indication of how mild it's been over the last wee while

[Peter H]

Your CET predictions sound very close to Jan and Feb 1969, are you expecting Jan. to develop a west based -NAO pattern, then to flip to a more central/east based -NAO pattern?

Jan/Feb. 1969 were excellent months. Much colder than usual with appreciable snow events (several in this part of the UK) which lasted well into February (even longer in England).

What I'd give for a winter like that one !

Edited December 25, 2012 by Peter H

[TEITS]

I always live in hope since the winter of 1947 (one my dad always talks about) didn't start until the 21st January.

However, once you pass that stage you might as well forget it. Mid February onwards the sun is always too strong for good snow, usually, and especially in a winter like this where the trends do seem to favour the Atlantic. '93/94 was the exception in recent years, if I remember correctly, with a good dollop of snow late January and mid February.

Still, you never know, but the models don't look promising at this stage. This is shaping up to be a real stinker.

The only positives are I haven't needed oil for quite a while. On the downside it looks as if my grass needs cut. I think that's a good indication of how mild it's been over the last wee while

Personally im not sure I would want to see a 1947 winter.

My expectations are always more realistic and as an example suppose this winter only contains a 7 day cold, snowy spell in Jan followed by another in Feb then I would be very happy. One of the most memorable winters for me was Jan 1987 and yet this winter only contained the severe E,ly outbreak as the rest of the winter was mild.

Speaking of realistic it looks as though we're going to have to wait until at least mid Jan for any decent cold spell as the ensembles until 10th Jan are shocking. I can imagine GP will be getting slightly nervous if the models continue to predict this positive NAO in future model outputs.

[Peter H]

One of the most memorable winters for me was Jan 1987 and yet this winter only contained the severe E,ly outbreak as the rest of the winter was mild.

78/79 and 81/82 were both much better than 86/87 (we only caught the tail end of that easterly). Both those winters started in late November (for 78/79) and December (81/82) and continued on through to February. 81/82 was also followed by 82/83,83/84,84/85, and 85/86 which were all cold with quite a few snow events, apart from 85/86 which was cold and dry. 2009/2010 and December 2010 do seem to have been the exceptions rather than the rule and we now appear to be back into the so called "even larger teapot" scenario i.e. largely snowless and mostly frost free.

When I was young it was strange not to have at least one or two snow events during the winter. Sadly, entirely snowless winters now appear to be the norm.

Winters now seem to be dominated by high pressure down over France and Spain which results in contuous mild southwesteries throughout most of the season.

2009/10 was more like what I experienced as a child in the 1960's, and this was every year, not just on the odd few. .

Edited December 26, 2012 by Peter H

[WestCountry11]

Still cheesed off with this mild,wet,damp and windy weather..

Just had a look at the Met Office site and they do not see much change,although they think there could be colder and drier weather on the far horizon..

Below is an extract from the Met Office site..

Monthly Outlook

Summary

No change to wet and windy weather as 2013 begins

As we head through Christmas the generally unsettled theme will continue to affect all parts of the UK. There is very little sign of any change in the story either as 2013 begins, with the most likely weather scenario involving a persistent pattern of weather systems encroaching on the UK from the Atlantic. Read on to find out more.

Monday 24 December—Sunday 30 December

Further spells of rain and windy at times

After the deluge of heavy rain and stormy winds that affected many parts of the UK through the course of the weekend, Christmas week gets under way with yet another spell of wet weather for everyone, although winds will be significantly lighter, and parts of Northern Ireland could see some afternoon sunshine.

Christmas Day itself will see temperatures reach about the average for this time of year, with bands of showers feeding in from the west, and they are likely to be particularly prevalent across Wales and southwest England. One or two of the showers might just turn a little wintry over the higher ground of Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland later on Christmas Day, but a white Christmas doesn't look likely this year for most places.

As we head into Boxing Day and Thursday, the wet and windy weather is set to continue with further bands of showers for most, and the possibility of a little hill snow for some areas of Northern Scotland.

Through Friday yet more rain and some southwesterly gales will sweep across the UK, with the strong likelihood of further spells of wet and windy, but essenrtially mild weather into the last weekend of 2012.

Monday 31 December—Sunday 6 January

No end in sight!

The story just doesn't change as we start the new year, with more bands of rain and swathes of strong winds looking set to sweep in from the Atlantic. At this stage it looks as if southwestern parts of the UK will again bear the brunt of the rainfall, with northeastern parts looking most likely to receive some wintry showers from time to time. Temperatures are expected to be about average for the time of year, or perhaps even a touch below for central and northern parts. To the south, though, there are some fairly strong indications that the weather could be a little milder as January gets under way.

Monday 7 January—Sunday 20 January

Will we finally see some change?

For the second week of January it looks as if yet more Atlantic low pressure systems will be heading towards the UK with bands of blustery showers or more prolonged spells of rain on the way. Temperatures also look to be around average, if not just a touch above. There is still quite a lot of uncertainty in the forecast as we look further ahead into the second half of January, but there is just a sign that there could be some colder and more settled weather on the cards.

Next week

Can we expect some colder weather for the end of January?

Monthly forecasting

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

Next update at 10:00, Monday 31 December

[Mark Bayley]

January forecast

Previous update

I expect the continuation of unsettled conditions, with on average temperatures remaining close to the norm. Given the expected continuation of a –NAO, and –AO I would not bet against colder interludes, in the form of brief northerlys, as we progress through the xmas period (something which has shown around xmas day on the latest model runs). I do not see great support for something prolonged this side of New Year. Given developments in the stratosphere I think the first half January, probably past week one, is when it could potentially come very interesting..!

Review

It remained unsettled and mostly average, although cooler at times further north. Although the NAO and AO remained negative, they have now trended towards positive, and likely to be so as we start January. Something hinted by the ensemble forecasts in my last update. Those 'interesting developments in stratosphere' seem likely to develop, although as highlighted in the last update, no impact on us is expected by week one. The initial forecast went bust, however the update has got relatively better, although perhaps milder than i expected.

Stratospheric outlook

After a period of temperatures at just below average at 10hpa, and recently just above at 30hpa, a large spike at all levels is expected as we progress into January.

Stratospheric temperatures at the 10hpa and 30hpa level are to increase significantly during the New Year period. The strength of the warming should lead to significant disruption of the polar vortex, and thus high latitude blocking.

Mean zonal winds are expected to decrease, reversing at 30hpa, and then most probably at 10hpa. Although not a sudden stratospheric warming (yet), I would expect this to be shown soon (zonal wind reversal at the 10hpa). Again, this should lead to significant disruption of the polar vortex.

Split or displacement? I would probably suggest a displacement followed by a possible split. Wave one breaking is expected to increase significantly, before decreasing at the end of the forecast period. Wave one breaking is characterised with vortex displacement.

Interestingly, wave two breaking is forecast to increase, which favours vortex split.

It is difficult to predict the area where the displaced vortex is likely to locate. At the moment I would suggest our side of the Atlantic (west Greenland area), which is not favourable for us. However, there are hints from the longer range GFS that subsequent warming nearer midmonth (Greenland area) may change this situation!

MJO

A mixed output from the global models, although all indicate an increasing amplitude. The UKMO is by far the most interesting, and has for some time indicated a possible phase 7/8 by midmonth. The ECM is similar to the UKMO, although slower with its evolution. The GFS seems to be on its own, although the bias corrected ensembles seem to follow the euros, albeit slower.

Some not so good phases to get through beforehand, which in general indicate lower heights to our north, with higher pressure progressively shifting north, so becoming settled.

Phase 7/8 would support height rises towards Greenland, around or just past midmonth (based on the UKMO/ECM).

The GWO has progressed towards phase 4, with a corresponding increase in angular momentum. From reading a few papers I noted how this is associated with a higher amplitude and progression of the MJO, which is ideal for a progression towards phase 7/8. Although given my relatively basic understanding of atmospheric angular momentum (first year uni) I shall not delve on this topic.

Interestingly the following composites show a GWO phase 5/6/7/8 is associated with below average UK temperatures.

CFS charts

Although not the most reliable charts, the general trend for weeks one-two is for lower heights to our north, with higher heights to our south (+NAO). With a trend for these higher heights to push further north (i.e. the UK becoming settled at last).

Past midmonth there is a signal for height rises over Greenland, with uncertainties in the placement of the trough.

AO and NAO Ensembles

The ensembles continue to show +NAO and +AO as we beguine the new year. However, there are some indications from the GFS that the AO shall return negative towards mid-month, which is expected.

The NAO forecasts are rather disappointing, and show a +NAO towards mid-month

Mean height ensembles (some charts missing due to update issues)

The ECM maintains lower heights to our north, with higher pressure encroaching from the south. So becoming more settled as we progress through the next 5-10 days.

The GFS is similar, with lower heights to our north west, with high pressure encroaching from the north, attempting to progress north eastwards.

Which is supported by the stratospheric geopotential height charts

The NAEFS shows this high sinking towards midmonth, but with fait signs if height rises towards Greenland.

Overall

An unsettled start to the month, but becoming progressively drier as higher pressure attempts to progress north east. Thereafter potentially becoming unsettled again. Midmonth I expect a change towards much colder conditions, with height rises in the Greenland region (around day 15 ish). I expect colder conditions, if they materialise, to be relatively sustained. In summary, a mild start (cooler when settled), and a cold end.

[A Winter's Tale]

AWT'S WINTER FORECAST 2012/2013

DECEMBER...quite cold, changeable with periods strongly influenced by low pressure but there should be some quiet and settled spells at times. Some periods of partciulary wet weather and at times quite windy and there could be a few storms. Temperatures 0.5 below to 0.25 above the average. CET 4.3C. Rainfall 90% in the north and west and 70-80% in the south and east. A good deal of hill snow in the highlands and some wintry weather at times . Sunshine 0-5% above average.

JANUARY...cold with a sustained period of below average temperatures, wintry precipitation and dry conditions - in the north, and some cool, changeable and unsettled weather during the month with some wet and windy weather and possibly wintry in the north. Temperatures -1.25 to 0.25C below avergae. CET 2.8C. Rainfall 85%. Some widespread snowfall in cold spells and a risk of hill snow in the highlands throughout the month. Sunshine 5% above average.

FEBRUARY...average with some cold, wintry spells but generally more unsettled and changeable with temperatures in general close to the average. Temperatures 0.25 below average to 0.5C above average. CET 3.8C. Rainfall 85 to 100%. Some wintry precipitation in cold spells. Sunshine 5% above average.

DECEMBER - MORE DETAILED FORECAST

First week: Starting cold, and dry, becoming unsettled with some wet and windy weather but on the cold side with the threat of some wintry precipitation in the north.

Second week: Initially unsettled and quite cool, turning a bit colder with northerly associated with mid-atlantic high with some snow in the north.

Third week: Becoming more settled for a few days with high pressure close to/over the British Isles - cold, frosty. Return to chilly, unsettled conditions.

Final week: Cool, quite unsettled start, becoming progressively colder later with snow becoming increasingly more widespread.

JANUARY - DETAILED FORECAST

First week: Starting cool and showery in NW, quickly becoming settled with dry, calm and mild conditions - some rain in the NW at times -some overcast periods, driest in SE

Second week: Staying mostly settled -mostly in E - but some wet and windy weather will be present at times - mostly in W - temps overall average, turning cooler and unsettled

Third week: Unsettled, at times quite dry in SE, temperatures around average, occasional snow in N, turning colder and a bit drier later

Final week: Very cold with a widespread risk of snow and ice. Some significant snowfalls at times and harsh frosts. Overall dry conditions with sunshine.

[Catacol]

I have been quiet for weeks having got my fingers badly burned on the easterly that I was certain was coming, and didnt. :-( However there are two forecasters on here - GP and RJS who I think are head and shoulders above the rest, and it is interesting that they both agreed on a cold/severe spell of weather building from mid Jan onwards.... and this is now looking possible when one looks at the vortex and its potential "shape" following the strat warming in a few days. Of the 2 forecasts I think Roger's looks the better at present: the shape of a mild 7 - 13 with a cold blip in the middle didnt work out, but the cold that GP touted did not arrive and to be fair to Roger I dont think he ever saw December as cold. He also looks spot on for the first half of Jan with his call of mild.

Both of course follow totally separate methods (at least I think they do...) and one of the things that fascinates me is that both have a high hit rate for success with these differing methods. I wonder if either has ever considered "sleeping with the enemy" and looking at producing an amalgamated forecast which accounts for both approaches?

Me? I'll crawl back into my box and start seeing if I can "understand" the pattern that is set to change in a couple of weeks time. I thought I had gathered enough knowledge to be confident of the easterly... but obviously not. I wonder how much of forecasting is science and how much art... either way I will try to be a bit more wary of nailing a forecast to the mast even at medium range in the future, because the variables can clearly change so quickly. GP has said that a sudden spike in solar output was the fly in the December ointment: that may very well be the case, though the fact that we cannot possibly predict such spikes within a solar cycle does not help with any accurate predictive method.

So much learning to do; so little time in every day to do it!

[Catacol]

His forecasts for the UK is bust and that essentially what his winter forecast is, for the UK.

Odd sentence - struggles to sound coherent.

GP did not see the LP over Europe giving up the ghost as quickly as it did - in fact I dont think any of us did. The signal for a deep trough over Europe was strong, with heights to the north above average - but in fact the LP signal pushed north and west and then unfortunately we hit the buffers at the wrong moment and have been stuck in the same wet pattern since. To be fair to GP I believe all his posts suggested exactly that: a pattern that was going to settle down and remain in situ... what he expected though was for us to be under a continental influence by the time that occurred rather then in a wet run caused by the unexpected shift in that low pressure signal (solar factor?) and the infamous residual chunk of vortex that whipped out over Canada and into the Atlantic at the same time as the vortex transferred most of its energy to Siberia.

Therefore the broad scale reading of the atmospheric shape was correct... but the specifics fell down because we are such a small speck of an island looking at tiny distances making a big difference to our weather.

I think SteveM has pushed this point quite hard recently in his disappointment over the failed easterly. If GP is right... that a solar uptick altered the pressure patterns over Europe then I guess the only lessons we can take from this are that firstly luck is a factor - and we were unlucky 3 weeks ago - and secondly large scale hemispheric trends and patterns can be read reasonably well but there is always wriggle room for an island as small as ours and accuracy over the UK is extremely hard to guarantee.

Edited December 31, 2012 by Catacol_Highlander

[Weather-history]

January will be much drier and anticyclonic with a cold snowy easterly brought by an intense Scandi high around mid to late month. A lot of snow in the east. As a consequence, it will be a cold month, close to January 2010 in terms of coldness, maybe colder.

Looks as though January is going to be more anticyclonic going off the current models.

[AWD]

Looks as though January is going to be more anticyclonic going off the current models.

But will the last half of your forecast be correct too? :p

[Roger J Smith]

In terms of "sleeping with the enemy" as discussed two posts back, my approach is transparent to the paradigms of any other workers or approaches, in that whatever they are looking at must be buried somewhere in the index values that I am using. I can say that I have taken time to study the other approaches and then reflect on how there could be any overlap or "enrichment" of the research method being used in my forecasts. So far, what I can report back is the following:

The concept of predicting a strat-warm episode in advance is moderately well correlated with the part of my research that I call retrograde index values. As you may have gathered my method identifies many different index values but a small group of these are retrograde, and those are correlated with the appearance of high latitude blocking and also with strat warm episodes. So that part of the potential collaboration seems already in place, the difference may be that my research would give different timing for these episodes, and the larger the lead time, the larger the time difference might be.

Otherwise, the volume of work that goes into improving this research method is already fairly close to my personal limits and the progress has been encouraging enough that I am following the path of least resistance which is to keep on working on testing and identifying new components. My research model is fairly easy to explain, perhaps a good deal easier than conventional teleconnection type methods which require a high level of understanding of global climate. My method actually requires that an interested observer would know nothing about that at all (not that I have ever encountered such a person). I will run through this briefly and renew my promise to start unleashing the details in a separate thread perhaps next month.

The method simply assumes that atmospheric variation is the result of many interacting external signals that are in two independent groups. One of these involves the Moon and our atmosphere. The other involves the solar system magnetic field and our atmosphere. The method also assumes that past weather and climate can be used to identify these signals while current analysis can be used to track them in real time. I have refined this slightly to say that the signals may be shifting slowly over time so that a third step is required, to investigate the trend in signal intensity and therefore more recent examples of given signals are weighted higher than those in the more distant past. The final comment is that there are many different identified signals having average intensities of 0.3 to 0.6 C deg, which as you could estimate would require many dozens of signals to begin to provide enough range to explain actual weather patterns.

This method therefore requires data analysis at various points, the more the better for detailed results, and this is one of the main drawbacks at present given that one guy without a research funding arrangement has been doing this from the foundation of self-employment over about three decades. (that's me by the way) ... despite that, I do have this work at a fairly advanced stage for both North America and Europe now. The results have been encouraging to me and from messages that I receive, to various other onlookers, but I honestly think this method would require the appearance of a supernatural or celestial being to confirm its physical reality before the establishment would even take notice of it, let alone take it seriously. So I'm working on that part also (and yes it is very likely to be posthumous, some time around 2050 A.D. would be my best guess) ... to the extent that I am kidding about the circumstances of recognition (not that much) the process is obviously a very slow one and perhaps best described as quasi-stationary.

Anything that goes wrong in my forecasts is probably weighted about 10:1 against anything that goes right which is the main result for slowing down what I would call a balanced recognition. This is fairly obvious from discussions of long-range forecasts for the winter in general not so much in this thread but on a wider scale. I note with some irony that there is a lot more discussion of well-known forecasters and their already busted forecasts than of my outlook for a cold February, and that puzzles me since it is basically a waste of bandwidth to discuss busted forecasts on a weather forum unless you're trying to learn what not to do. This is not meant to be a dig at anyone, I just find it rather odd that more people aren't interested in a method that gave such a promising result both this winter and last. I assume it is the vague association with "astrology" which I can't really help because if external signals are important then they are 100% bound to originate outside the earth's atmosphere, there is nothing out there except outer space unless there's a control room behind a glass screen with stars painted on it. And some days I think maybe that's the actual answer, and that they can change any pattern at a whim just for their own amusement. Don't you?

[Jayces]

His forecasts for the UK is bust and that essentially what his winter forecast is, for the UK.

I think any LRF should stand and fall on it's own merit but that shouldn't stop anyone producing them, more so here on net weather who have some of the best LRF in the business.

You appear to be saying in your first post that you think GP's winter forecast is a bust and in your second post that you shouldn't judge an LRF until it's happened?

Bit of a contradiction there as winter still has 2 months to go.

You either think GP's forecast is not going to happen or you need to wait until March and compare what happened to his forecast.

[Ice BIast]

Anything that goes wrong in my forecasts is probably weighted about 10:1 against anything that goes right which is the main result for slowing down what I would call a balanced recognition. This is fairly obvious from discussions of long-range forecasts for the winter in general not so much in this thread but on a wider scale. I note with some irony that there is a lot more discussion of well-known forecasters and their already busted forecasts than of my outlook for a cold February, and that puzzles me since it is basically a waste of bandwidth to discuss busted forecasts on a weather forum unless you're trying to learn what not to do. This is not meant to be a dig at anyone, I just find it rather odd that more people aren't interested in a method that gave such a promising result both this winter and last.

To be honest RJS, many people on here are probably just talking about other forecasts more because of a cold January being forecast, which many prefer over a cold February, so everyone is focusing on these forecasts, at least for now. I for one rate your forecasts very highly though, and I'm sure that many others see you among the top long range forecasters too.

Edited January 1, 2013 by lce Blast

[Dorsetbred]

.

Anything that goes wrong in my forecasts is probably weighted about 10:1 against anything that goes right which is the main result for slowing down what I would call a balanced recognition. This is fairly obvious from discussions of long-range forecasts for the winter in general not so much in this thread but on a wider scale. I note with some irony that there is a lot more discussion of well-known forecasters and their already busted forecasts than of my outlook for a cold February, and that puzzles me since it is basically a waste of bandwidth to discuss busted forecasts on a weather forum unless you're trying to learn what not to do. This is not meant to be a dig at anyone, I just find it rather odd that more people aren't interested in a method that gave such a promising result both this winter and last. I assume it is the vague association with "astrology" which I can't really help because if external signals are important then they are 100% bound to originate outside the earth's atmosphere, there is nothing out there except outer space unless there's a control room behind a glass screen with stars painted on it. And some days I think maybe that's the actual answer, and that they can change any pattern at a whim just for their own amusement. Don't you?

Roger, you have been around for a long time, I know and respect your posts from way back. It's a human trait where one readily attacks the weakling, without a full comprehension of all the facts. It's also a harsh fact of Internet forums where people hide behind keyboards, it makes it all too easy to verbally attack, reposition and re-attack with little or no consequence.

Hang in there you knowledge is recognised, keep posting to prove you are not defeated by the verbose attackers.

[syed2878]

@roger j smith. Hi roger if i remembor your last w.forecast was rather impressive, so keep on at it man.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

More later but I think during last days to week of Jan some cold records to be challenged? My dates on other page of 16-22 Jan......this is the game changer period in my outlook for this month.

Yes RJS forecast thus far holds firm, I hope he's got the onset of cold wrong though as in hope its earlier.

BFTP

Edited January 2, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[UV-RAY]

Fred do you see those heights being of a concern over S Europe, or do you think a -NAO will quickly develop sending the jet diving South again ?

Edited January 2, 2013 by jethro
Helping to make your request come true.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Fred do you see those heights being of a concern over S Europe, or do you think a -NAO will quickly develop sending the jet diving South again ?

Quick turnaround, sort of out of nowhere....or would have been in past decades, now we have more to our armoury to see potential changes down the line

BFTP