The Seasonal Forecast Thread

[mcweather]

********I am off the mark************

Morning folks, it is clear that December as whole for me is off the mark and wrong. I have no doubt abouth that. Severe cold is building to our N and E and we are at times going to get in the mix so an up and down month but cold generally being the winner and possibly only SW areas being only places that get less cold/milder interludes. I will post an attempted detailed monthly outlook later today but IMO those that have called for more cold than mild and those that see northern blocking being more of a feature......I think well done. I say that because my detailed outlook will have a wintry flavoursome look to it.......

So ok see you later and already now the best I can do is 66% on my LRF and that is if it is day perfect which is impossible so I'm realistically at best down to 50% .....................CET is below average this month

BFTP

That a very honest assessment BFTP. respect to you for that.

I imagine the following from Ian Fergusson about the Meto medium term thoughts is one of the reasons

more tellingly, latest 10-15d prognosis now leans towards Scandinavian block establishing with real purpose; easterly flow setting-up and attempted frontal incursions to SW. MOGREPS now in step with EC Monthly and so the cold, blocked signal remains headline to our MR forecasts. .

Edited December 2, 2012 by mcweather

[snowking]

That a very honest assessment BFTP. respect to you for that.

Whole heartedly agree. The sign of a good forecaster for me isn't one who usually gets things right (though it helps!) its those who can admit when they're off the mark and who spend time researching why they were out

Thats why for me the likes of BFTP, Roger, GP, Chio etc. will always be better forecasters than somebody like Piers Corbyn who, despite his claims, will not ever hold his hands up and say he was wrong....he always has a way of worming out of it

Talking of which I very much hope this December does finish below average, purely because after Piers's discussions on Twitter, it looks as though he's going for an above average month, and it would be great to see how he worms his way out of it this time

SK

[london-snow]

London Snow Winter Forecast 2012-2013

December 2012 - Into the early part of this month ( 2nd - 13th ) i am expecting a continuous pattern of colder spells with shorter bursts of milder blips. Snowfall will be common where the coldest weather sticks around mainly the further north and east you go although not exclusively. Into the 13th-31st i am expecting a big change into a more severe and sustained period of cold this time a easterly veering south easterly flow to become established as we go through this period. Snowfall will be most common to the south and east with persistent showers coming in off the eastern coasts spreading well inland. I do also see the potential for a major snow storm in southern england where the milder air tries to take hold and bumps into the cold and established air. However with the cold air to win out on this occasion.

January 2013 - Starting off as you were from the back end of December and into first few days of January ( 1st - 4th ). So a cold and potentially snowy new year and again the south and east more prone to the snow than the rest of the uk although not exclusively so. From the ( 4th - 17th ) i am expecting a gradual change back to more milder weather with a few deep areas of low pressure to finally remove the cold block back east a snowy breakdown in the offering before temps return to normal or above average. From the 17th - 31st i am expecting a potent northerly to take hold bringing snowfall to more northern areas with polar lows becoming frequent running north east areas to the south giving the majority of the uk some snow action. I am then expecting after a period of five days for winds to veer north easterly giving north east & southern and eastern areas a period of intense cold with snow a everyday occurrence until the months end.

A total punt with no science behind my madness but a great way to kill a lazy Sunday who knows all i know is that i need a now..

Edited December 2, 2012 by london-snow

[VillagePlank]

Here's my foreast check. The predicted value is basically taking the mean of all the GEFS runs 2m temp at Heathrow Airport: not really that good, but at least it's something.

Nov: 7.32C (+1.17C), actl = 6.97, err = +0.35C

Dec: 3.46C (-0.73C), pred = 1.74, err = +1.72C

Jan: 1.80C (-1.60C)

Feb: 2.74C (-1.31C)

Mar: 6.46C (+0.93C)

At this stage I think getting the signs (whether it is above or below the average) is an achievement

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page__st__120#entry2403878

Edited December 3, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[summer blizzard]

I'm not going to bother with a seasonal forecast this year as i only ever succeed on the hurricane season.

An interesting thought did occur however which was in relation to next summer. Current indications are for +ENSO conditions (possibly close to neutral) and a +QBO so summer 2013 could be swinging towards a warm one.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Things ain't gone to plan due to family commitments but will give more indepth update. However, as briefly mentioned on the model thread, I think cold will be close to or over us BUT we are very likely to have a SW/NE split and less cold interludes likely to affect the SW. I doubt as frustrating as 02/03 but also its looking like a 'build up' month ahead. NE areas may be under 'cold' air throughout.

BFTP

[london-snow]

Things ain't gone to plan due to family commitments but will give more indepth update. However, as briefly mentioned on the model thread, I think cold will be close to or over us BUT we are very likely to have a SW/NE split and less cold interludes likely to affect the SW. I doubt as frustrating as 02/03 but also its looking like a 'build up' month ahead. NE areas may be under 'cold' air throughout.

BFTP

Hi Fred.

I like the sound of your forecast potential for big dumps of snow down in our neck of the woods if the milder air tries to make a move in from the south west. Would you agree that the south east is likley to benifit from the type of picture you are painting?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Fred.

I like the sound of your forecast potential for big dumps of snow down in our neck of the woods if the milder air tries to make a move in from the south west. Would you agree that the south east is likley to benifit from the type of picture you are painting?

Depending on how much cold air embeds itself, but yes it is a frontal snow potential scenario. I think the boundary area is usually well East of us but it looks good for UK/Ireland to be in that position, with East and NE possibly holding on to cold throughout. The jet looks to me to be more south and the blocking to our east further north and west. Dec 02 had some mouth watering looking charts but was a 'nearly' month, I mention 02 as that is last occurence of the SH warming 'event' and at a glance it seems the tropophere provided blocking pattern in circumstances moreso than would be expected? [that is just a food for thought idea from me]. We seem to be in similar territory but added in to that a well established -ve PDO and southward shifted jetstream, the wave 1 and 2 GP and C speak of attacking the vortex, it looks like we are in for a higher chance of cold. Could be a long winter.

BFTP

[Ladyofthestorm]

HI Blasty! For once an echo of my own sentiments. Been ages since Ilast posted. Keep well.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

HI Blasty! For once an echo of my own sentiments. Been ages since Ilast posted. Keep well.

You did rather well last year too I seem to remember.....gr8!!!

BFTP

Edited December 5, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As its very nice and quiet, this episode IMO is a non starter for prolonged cold, we'll see some pressure build as per models over France with trough extension from west elongating over UK, but the general theme will see a gradual tilt/development for trough over Scandi to form on or around Xmas as presuure build develops/transfers to NW. Cool to blustery cold NW'ly flow and a biting northerly as we approach NYE. I think the model's are getting it right.....no resurgence of easterly set up. An up and down month which will be below average but not greatly so. There is a chance of the blocked theme really getting put on back burner here.

BFTP

Edited December 8, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Partholon]

It looks as if roger j smith's forecast is going to plan so far. He indicated a milder period in the run up to Christmas, with any cold outbreak before then being shortlived, and that's exactly what looks like happening now

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It looks as if roger j smith's forecast is going to plan so far. He indicated a milder period in the run up to Christmas, with any cold outbreak before then being shortlived, and that's exactly what looks like happening now

Absolutely

BFTP

[Bristawl Si]

Indeed interesting.

5/6 days ago looked like Roger's forecast was going bust at the first hurdle, so to speak -but now it looks like he's on track.

Funny business this weather prediction lark.

I posted in Mod Disc thread earlier today that it's worth reminding ourselves that this little island of ours is more often than not influenced by the Atlantic - sometimes directly, other times it just tempers 'outside' influences like the continental land mass from gaining a foothold.

Like it or not that's just the way it is.

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks for noticing, but the models are in such a state of chaos that I will await actual outcomes here, looks this morning like at least the GFS wants to delay the warming relative to earlier runs, but all of this variation is irrelevant to my time scale, as long as cold gives way to mild before Christmas. My research output has been fairly close to reality through this past interval with a slight mild bias during the past ten days (not a large departure) and it was showing colder readings from about 12th to 18th then a steady warming trend. I added the snow from the energy levels, but in an easterly set-up the energy isn't that significant so much as the source and fetch considerations.

Main theme remains (for me at least) ups and downs most of the winter until a sustained cold period around end of January into February. Hoping that part verifies, the ups and downs could all be out of phase and it's basically the same thing to most people but I do try to get the timing right. January's output is certainly up and down several times before the more prolonged cold. There could in fact be a fairly decent cold spell just after New Years but I don't expect that to last uninterrupted into the later cold spell.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It would seem that any forecasts that have gone for a well below Dec are like my Dec forecast......a bust. Even if my temps come in at end of the month, so far the synoptics haven't really matched up, although I still fancy my Xmas and New Year synoptics having a chance

BFTP

Edited December 10, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ZONE 51]

Part of my forecast i posted mid November

Forecast for December - (updated from my Autumn and early winter forecast, the change to a more colder month)

Polar/Arctic air at times.

Highest rainfall - Western and Northern areas - Atlantic weather systems most likely to affect here.

Driest - Southern and Eastern areas - high pressure most likely.

Temperatures - below average - Track of weather systems/Jet Stream/Atlantic High placement.

Rainfall - slightly above average - Low pressure more frequent then high pressure until late month.

Snowfall - above average - I expect snow to fall more likely than rain.

A Cold month, strong Greenland high developing, North-sea/Scandinavian low pressure/Atlantic High placement.

As we enter this month i expect the Jet stream to be hanging around and not really moving to far south at this stage, i expect the JS to be across the Southern Coast UK or North France, the Jet Stream quite weak at times. Low pressure systems affecting all areas, a few of these Lows deep, some very wet and very windy weather around as these systems sweep through, mild air at times within the systems and cold air sweeping down on the back edges of some of the Low pressures, and with some cold days and nights i expect some sleet and snow in the North and East to low levels and the cold air at times pulled into Western and southern UK then snowfall here to-even to low levels. There is likely to be ridges of high pressure inbetween the weather systems especially in South UK with frost and fog, some severe frost is likely for most places under the clear spells, the severe frost most likely late month where i expect stronger high pressure across the UK. Strong High pressure moving in to affect most areas from around mid-month, i'm expecting the Atlantic to slowly settle down with far less activity reaching our shores, the Low pressure systems being blocked, although some fronts affecting the far North and West at times late month but even here things becoming more settled, the High pressure bringing with it much calmer and much colder conditions, i expect sunny cold days and frosts for most, it is possible that severe cold develops towards the end of the month eventually bringing in a northeasterly flow with snow showers.

Forecast for January -

A very cold month, strong Scandinavian High.

Arctic air/Elements of a Siberian winter. .................edited to shorten this re-post, full forecast on page 7.

ESS.

Edited December 10, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[UV-RAY]

It would seem that any forecasts that have gone for a well below Dec are like my Dec forecast......a bust. Even if my temps come in at end of the month, so far the synoptics haven't really matched up, although I still fancy my Xmas and New Year synoptics having a chance

BFTP

By months end GP's forecast will be joining many others Fred. One positive to take forward and that is no one can make an accurate LRF, although Roger is by far the nearest in achieving this.

Edited December 12, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Weather-history]

Reposting my forecast

I posted this before but can't find it.

Here's my forecast based on hunches, past stats etc.

I believed it was only a matter of a time that April and indeed June and September who have for so long not returned a month that was at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average would statistically have to do so. Infact all 3 did so in the same year!

I'm using that same train of thought with this winter forecast.

We have not had a Scandinavian high bringing a notable easterly during the height of winter for some years. Infact we've not a Scandinavian high dominated winter for some years of the 1995-96 type.

So I believe that we may see a notable cold snowy easterly during January of the late January 1996 type.

I think December will be fairly wet and unsettled but not specially mild, a bit like December 1993. The further north, you are the more wintry potential, there will be.

January will be much drier and anticyclonic with a cold snowy easterly brought by an intense Scandi high around mid to late month. A lot of snow in the east. As a consequence, it will be a cold month, close to January 2010 in terms of coldness, maybe colder.

When was the last time we saw a cold spell breakdown bringing a widespread snowfall? Well for February, during the early part of the month, this is what I will be going for but because of the nature of the Scandi high block, I am going for a February 1994 scenario where there were a couple of breakdowns but the block over Scandi high reasserted itself. So a fairly cold month with some spells of rain, sleet and snow, the intensity and location of the snowfalls depending how far the fronts can make into the UK.

[Methuselah]

If only more folks actually listened to GP's video! IMO, it's tad too early to start hailing any particular forecast as being 'the best'...

[UV-RAY]

If only more folks actually listened to GP's video! IMO, it's tad too early to start hailing any particular forecast as being 'the best'...

Unless the models do a complete u-turn then GP's winter forecast will be bust RP and lets be honest all the signs are pointing that way. As for Roger's forecast. yes it is indeed too early to be popping open the champagne corks as winter as just begun, but his forecast as of yet is still on track and each seasonal forecasts he makes is always near the mark, not perfect but better than most.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just a hunch - nothing more as i havent got skills to produce a LRF - but just wondering whether this Dec could be similar to '81?

Hi BB.......that'll be a no then unfortunately

BFTP

[Bristawl Si]

Hi BB.......that'll be a no then unfortunately

BFTP

Yes, my hunch is defo a BUST!! LOL!!

That's why i rely on 30-second hunches and not LRFs - because i ain't got a scooby!

So, moving on - maybe we'll get to a 78/79 situ! End of year/turn of year 2013 to cold and blizzards?! Well, maybe not....!

[Weather-history]

If only more folks actually listened to GP's video! IMO, it's tad too early to start hailing any particular forecast as being 'the best'...

It agree its far too early to judge but I can't help feeling a little bit cynical here that since the easterly threat disappeared, GP, hasn't given his thoughts on the latest outputs. It gives the impression that things aren't going according to plan.

Edited December 12, 2012 by Weather-history

[manutdmatt1986]

Hi All. I have created my own weather page on facebook and would be grateful if you would have a look :-)

http://www.facebook.com/WeatherWatchUK?ref=hl