Checking The 500mb Anomaly Charts Against The Actual One

[lorenzo]

Monday 2nd July

6-10

8-14

[Steve C]

Thanks, was about to do the same.

[johnholmes]

many thanks both of you-please keep doing this until I get my pc(hopefully) sorted

[johnholmes]

Hi John,not sure if you are aware that there is an archive facility for these CPC charts.

http://www.cpc.ncep....e/srarc.ind.php

Might come in handy when your PC problems are resolved.

Hi John,not sure if you are aware that there is an archive facility for these CPC charts.

http://www.cpc.ncep....e/srarc.ind.php

Might come in handy when your PC problems are resolved.

no I had not realised that-thank you very much

[Steve C]

Tuesday 3rd

[johnholmes]

Many thanks again-I now have no pc=away at the docs so this is from my local library. I'd be grateful if you will keep doing this for a day or two longer please if its not too much trouble.

Looking at either chart and one would have to say 'little change' is in prospect, NOAA and ECMWF-GFS have pretty consistently predicted this pattern for the middle of July for some time. Until all 3 show some sign of major pattern change then the UK weather is unlikely to change much from its unsettled mode. Warm at times, cool at others times and with showers, even more prolonged spells of rain or storms as we stay under the effect of the marked upper trough.

[Steve C]

Wednesday 4th

[Steve C]

Thursday 5th

[johnholmes]

many thanks for this-please see help thread for latest!

[johnholmes]

I hope to put up the latest check later today or tomorrow.

Pretty accurate again.

Over the past 24 hours or rather 36 hours both outputs have shown something of a change for 7-15 days down the line. How realistic this is will be interesting to watch. I'll make comment in the check when I do it.

[Backtrack]

I hope to put up the latest check later today or tomorrow.

Pretty accurate again.

Over the past 24 hours or rather 36 hours both outputs have shown something of a change for 7-15 days down the line. How realistic this is will be interesting to watch. I'll make comment in the check when I do it.

Hi John,

The Met Office did reflect a late-month change in their longer range outlook earlier in the week, but have since backed away from it. Do you think it's possible they saw these changes on their own anomaly models, but have backed away accordingly as their models did too?

[johnholmes]

Hi John,

The Met Office did reflect a late-month change in their longer range outlook earlier in the week, but have since backed away from it. Do you think it's possible they saw these changes on their own anomaly models, but have backed away accordingly as their models did too?

no idea if I am completely honest

the changes did not show on the 500mb anomaly charts until last evening=NOAA and this morning=ECMWF and GFS.

To have any confidence I need at least 2 days of them showing the same before I would be prepared to take them as probably showing the right idea.

[Backtrack]

no idea if I am completely honest

the changes did not show on the 500mb anomaly charts until last evening=NOAA and this morning=ECMWF and GFS.

To have any confidence I need at least 2 days of them showing the same before I would be prepared to take them as probably showing the right idea.

Ah I see, do the Met Office not have access to much more data, especially in the LRF area than we do though?

Looking forward to hearing your verdict on a possible pattern change later today, or tomorrow.

[johnholmes]

Ah I see, do the Met Office not have access to much more data, especially in the LRF area than we do though?

much more along with a team of professional forecasters

[johnholmes]

No 16 in pdf format below

No 16 500mb anomaly check from 26 jun for 6 july12.pdf

[Steve C]

6th July

[johnholmes]

thanks again TH and both (6-10 and 8-14) outlooks do take up the idea floated this morning by ECMWF-GFS. A quite different upper air pattern from all 3 for 7-15 days time to what we have had for some considerable time. That is IF it verifies. I personally need to see 2-3 days with the same pattern showing before I will feel confident in the pattern.

copying into model thread as well.

[Steve C]

7th July

[johnholmes]

many thanks again although this morning, using Google Chrome, I did, by leaving the pc on its own after trying to log on to the site, discovered some time later that it had actually loaded the 8-14 day one. Please keep them coming though if you don't mind.

See my post in the model thread for anyone wanting my view on their predictions at the moment.

[Steve C]

8th July

[Steve C]

July 9th

[johnholmes]

thanks Steve

To anyone looking at the set of charts we can now see from Steve the change in upper air pattern from 7 days ago is obvious for all to see. The ECMWF-GFS also shows a similar pattern change=gone is the marked upper trough close by the UK. Just how the upper pattern will settle is still not clear.

I suppose one could sum it up as an Atlantic dominated weather pattern is perhaps the most likely looking at the run of charts over the past few days. The charts issued on the 6th (the first ones Steve posted in here) were the first day the marked upper trough close by the UK was not being shown.

[Steve C]

July 10th

[Steve C]

July 11th

[johnholmes]

Here is the No 17 check

Overall the 17 checks are giving 63% at worst and 73% at best so I am quite happy with how the checks are proceeeding, many more to go though.

No 17 from 8 July for 18 july 2012.pdf

Edited July 19, 2012 by johnholmes