Checking The 500mb Anomaly Charts Against The Actual One

[johnholmes]

cheers for that-another example of my comments that we all learn something new every day!

I had never noticed that partof the web page only the one near the top left.

[johnholmes]

my take on the output for No 10 check below

to me its another very good guidance the 3 charts gave for the weather over the 7-10 day period, some may disagree as the chart for the 10th day was somewhat different.

No 10 valid for 10 May 2012.pdf

my marks for the first ten are shown below

500mb check – marks

1 30%

2 60%

3 60-80%

4 60-80%

5 50% on day but 80% for period

6 30-40%

7 60%

8 80%

9 80%+

10 80% apart from day 10

there are 2 with below 50%=poor and 4 with 60% plus and 3 rated 80% so overall I am satisfied that my comments over many months that they are a very useful tool IF they show consistency over a period of 3-7 days and are all 3 consistent with one another.

Edited May 11, 2012 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

The results of check No 11 in the pdf below

Overall about a day early to claim more than 70% but pretty impressive to get a change of pattern correct.

No 11 done on 21 May from charts on 11 May.pdf

[johnholmes]

here is check No 12-I rate it a bit over 60% so useful guidance but not one of its best

No12 done 31 may 2012.pdf

I am away when the next check is duebut will post the charts that will be valid with my comments on the weather pattern I would expect from them after this post

[johnholmes]

posted below are the first few comments on Check No 13 for 11-12 June as I'm away then

No 13 not full check issued 3 june.pdf

no full checks now until about 25/26 June start

[phil nw.]

posted below are the first few comments on Check No 13 for 11-12 June as I'm away then

No 13 not full check issued 3 june.pdf

no full checks now until about 25/26 June start

Thanks John.It does look unsettled and rather cool for the first half of June based on these outputs.

[johnholmes]

I expected not to have time to do another for a month or so but this one can be No 14 with charts issued on 7 June for 17 June

No 14 issued 18 june from data 7 june.pdf

another 'good' ouput by the 3

HELP!!

Trying to check for no obvious mistakes and I get this-it will not allow me back in, and it seems the same for any other of my pdf files??

has anyone any idea what the problem is-it was ok about a week ago and I'm not aware of any settings being changed other than a Microsoft routine update?

Edited June 18, 2012 by johnholmes

[Methuselah]

I expected not to have time to do another for a month or so but this one can be No 14 with charts issued on 7 June for 17 June

No 14 issued 18 june from data 7 june.pdf

another 'good' ouput by the 3

HELP!!

Trying to check for no obvious mistakes and I get this-it will not allow me back in, and it seems the same for any other of my pdf files??

has anyone any idea what the problem is-it was ok about a week ago and I'm not aware of any settings being changed other than a Microsoft routine update?

Pass! For some reason, I can't view it...

[in the vale]

I can view it fine! I'm not technical, but are you using the latest version of Acrobat?

[Methuselah]

I can view it fine! I'm not technical, but are you using the latest version of Acrobat?

Good question, I'll look into it...

[Polar Maritime]

Looks fine to me John

[Cloud 10]

I can view it no problem as well.

Used to have major problems viewing any pdf file on the web until i started using Foxit.

Free to download and works very well.

Best PDF Reader

[johnholmes]

I can view it no problem as well.

Used to have major problems viewing any pdf file on the web until i started using Foxit.

Free to download and works very well.

Best PDF Reader

in a rush but just loaded it, tried it, it did get as far as asking did I want to open the file, but then gave the same thing as my attachment shows-I'll have another look later today when got more time-all very odd though as the file itself on my pc opens just will not on Net Wx!

Edited June 19, 2012 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

just tried for the 3rd time and this time it works so many tks cloud 10

[Cloud 10]

Pleased it worked for you John.

With the amount of "updates" on pc's these days,i'm amazed it all keeps working!

[johnholmes]

A quick No 15 using data from 12 June for today 22 June

The next full one will be started around 25/26 June.

The average for the first 15 is running at worst take on them=59.6% and the best 'take' on them at 69.6%.

So apart from 2 the main pattern is giving something close to 75% accuracy which is quite promising. Many more needed to give a better view but certainly encouraging enough for me to use them from day 5 out to day 15 in preference, with the usual proviso I always make, than using the 4x GFS or the 2X ECMWF outputs for main forecast guidance.

A quick No 15 using data from 12 June for today 22 June

The next full one will be started around 25/26 June.

The average for the first 15 is running at worst take on them=59.6% and the best 'take' on them at 69.6%.

So apart from 2 the main pattern is giving something close to 75% accuracy which is quite promising. Many more needed to give a better view but certainly encouraging enough for me to use them from day 5 out to day 15 in preference, with the usual proviso I always make, than using the 4x GFS or the 2X ECMWF outputs for main forecast guidance.

A quick No 15 using data from 12 June for today 22 June

The next full one will be started around 25/26 June.

The average for the first 15 is running at worst take on them=59.6% and the best 'take' on them at 69.6%.

So apart from 2 the main pattern is giving something close to 75% accuracy which is quite promising. Many more needed to give a better view but certainly encouraging enough for me to use them from day 5 out to day 15 in preference, with the usual proviso I always make, than using the 4x GFS or the 2X ECMWF outputs for main forecast guidance.

oh well still a problem it seems with pdf files-it will not upload it using the system in Google Chrome. I'll have another try.

gawd-do these probelsm never end, it now wants to repeat the text x2.

nor will it let me reply to my own post-anyone want a chuffing pc for nowt?

[johnholmes]

another try

No 15 500mb anomaly check started 12 for 22 june 12.pdf

very very odd - it will allow me to use basic but not the advanced loader so I'll go to the help area-please don't clutter this thread up with ideas on what the problem is, much as I appreciate your help- go to the one I started a day or so ago please-many thanks

[johnholmes]

hi

I am looking for help please?

Thanks to some very odd pc problems I cannot access, most of the time, the NOAA-CPC 500mb anomaly charts

These are the links I have used for 3-4 years and they always worked, now 90% of the time they will not.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72606-checking-the-500mb-anomaly-charts-against-the-actual-one/page__pid__2312321__st__20#entry2312321

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/whindex.shtml

I would be very grateful if some could post the 6-10 and 8-14 day 500mb anomaly charts as you see me use each day please until I can get my pc to the docs' and hopefully whatever the bug is sorted.

many thanks if one of you can help.

They are normally issued mid evening each day.

[picog]

If true and looking for summery weather, grim

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

and grimmer

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

Edited July 2, 2012 by picog

[johnholmes]

Is anyone able to help me please?

The actual 6-10 and 8-14 day charts from NOAA please NOT the link

many thanks

[Steve C]

Hi John,

Are you talking about these?

Edited July 2, 2012 by The Föhns

[johnholmes]

the very ones and many thanks-could you do that each day until I get my pc sorted please? Its going to the pc doc's tomorrow, hopefully to clean up whatever is causing me more and more problems on various sites including e mails and then reloading everything. Just whether my web page and the Davis data will reload is something no one is sure about-don't ask me why I am a total nurd with pc's-but thanks again.

John

[Steve C]

the very ones and many thanks-could you do that each day until I get my pc sorted please? Its going to the pc doc's tomorrow, hopefully to clean up whatever is causing me more and more problems on various sites including e mails and then reloading everything. Just whether my web page and the Davis data will reload is something no one is sure about-don't ask me why I am a total nurd with pc's-but thanks again.

John

Will do. Is there a best time of day for doing this?

[johnholmes]

NOAA usually issue them by about 2015 BST each evening-many thanks

[Cloud 10]

NOAA usually issue them by about 2015 BST each evening-many thanks

Hi John,not sure if you are aware that there is an archive facility for these CPC charts.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/short_range/srarc.ind.php

Might come in handy when your PC problems are resolved.