South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3

[jethro]

I'm going by the BETA forecast which is supposed to be more accurate (locally) than the general one. It updated many times during yesterday, each update changed the forecast snow intensity, none of them gave any indication of sleet or rain. The NW extra detailed forecast was far more accurate, it said sleet all the way through apart from an hour or so of moderate snow. It drizzled here up to about midnight, changed to snow and had fizzled out by 2am.

This isn't a yaboo, I haven't got snow gripe (I have) it's a disappointed in the inaccuracy of the forecast and the METO's stubbornness at sticking with their forecast when it was becoming clear it wasn't going to plan.

[warmintim]

The mistake is where the snow was forecast to fall. This snow forecast changed very much. The line of snow, and snow risk charts was a line from Glouc, Bristol, Weston, Exeter....it didnt take that path. It went Wiltshire, Dorest.

The forecast changed as we got closer to the time - as it always will. The mistake people are making is to take the forecast at 48 hours or 24 hours out as the final position. It isn't. Two years ago my area was smack under a red warning from the met-office for heavy snow - up to 12 inches. In the event it missed us by 30-40 miles. Thats just the way it is. I know people are dissappointed, but the criticism isn't fair here.

[Frosty_wsm]

Hopefully we get another chance before spring :-)

Another chance at cold rain, nah no thank you lol, roll on some early spring warmth.

[slinky1989]

Snowing lightly again here! If only the NW extra radar was working as I thought we weren't going to get any more?

[jethro]

The forecast changed as we got closer to the time - as it always will. The mistake people are making is to take the forecast at 48 hours or 24 hours out as the final position. It isn't. Two years ago my area was smack under a red warning from the met-office for heavy snow - up to 12 inches. In the event it missed us by 30-40 miles. Thats just the way it is. I know people are dissappointed, but the criticism isn't fair here.

In general terms I would agree with you but in this instance, I don't. Their warnings issues yesterday came with 100% confidence attached when it was already clear that the precipitation on the Eastern side wasn't behaving as they had predicted - it was supposed to veer SW and merge with the band on the W side, it didn't and it was clear early on it wasn't happening.

As I said, I'm not moaning I didn't get snow (I did) but as someone who works outdoors all year round, weather (or rather forthcoming weather) is pretty high on my agenda of needing to know. If they issue a warning with 50% confidence then I can take that into account, if they issue one with 100% and I juggle my working week accordingly, it can be frustrating and expensive.

[MP-R]

Whatever the argument - the simple answer is that the MetO got it wrong, simple as. I now want this whole day to fizzle out of my memory and have an upgrade of something next week (probably not going to happen). It seemed everything was there with a cold feed, very low temperatures, low dewpoints and precipitation - it just fell as rain/sleet and not snow.

Roll on the next cold spell, and for heavens sake make it from the N/NW not the wherever this one came from!

[Wynn D Woo]

The forecast changed as we got closer to the time - as it always will. The mistake people are making is to take the forecast at 48 hours or 24 hours out as the final position. It isn't. Two years ago my area was smack under a red warning from the met-office for heavy snow - up to 12 inches. In the event it missed us by 30-40 miles. Thats just the way it is. I know people are dissappointed, but the criticism isn't fair here.

But they were persisting with a forecast that blatantly was playing out differently in real time, that is poor.

[sherrie]

The forecasters got it right for my area, we were always on the line where snow became rain and thats exactly what happened, of course we hoped the snow would just move a bit over, we were so near yet so far, but I cant complain because what they said would happen did. Im not sure they ever did say it would snow up to Exeter? Yes I did read it on here somewhere but I didnt see a proper METO cast that said that. So they as far as my area is concerned they got it spot on Saturday and last night, sometimes we just dont want to believe what they are saying and clutch at straws.

Edited February 10, 2012 by Cheryl Garner

[Frosty_wsm]

sometimes we just dont want to believe what they are saying and clutch at straws.

No straw clutching here, even the forecast I saw on bbc news24 showed snow here early hours of the morning, I stayed up till the back end of the precipitation had passed by and all I saw was rain.

Also considering the massive change we all saw on the nae which had previously shown my area as smack bang in the heavy snow zone, that then moved massively east with the next update yet the forecast didn't change much until very late in the day, all that as far as i'm concerned says the met got it wrong, heck when some in the south east got more snow out of that system when the south east was supposed to stay dry, that's how far off their forecasts originally were and that's alot more than just a 30/40 mile shift!

Edited February 10, 2012 by Smartie

[sherrie]

Yes I do see your point, they got it right for my area but others they didnt, so it was just luck (BAD luck lol) that they got it right and forecasted rain for us.

[Radiating Dendrite]

This is a general moan here. I really don't think it is fair to say the MET got it that wrong. In the lead up to this there was a huge emphasis on uncertainty. I don't recall any forecasts from the met or the BBC saying that it was definitely going to give widespread snow of 10 cm. They just didn't say this. The big problem is we all cherry pick the best bits for ourselves both in terms of locations and amounts. So a forecast of snow for some parts of the south west, with up 1-5 cm typical and up to 10 cm in parts becomes 10 cm for all. Snow in this country is incredibly hard to forecast. We all know this. Lots of us HAVE HAD SNOW. Many of us have between 1 and 5 cm. Where is the huge mistake in all this?

Kirkwood said upto 20cm was possible yesterday morning!

Think the cold must have got to her! Then again, I enjoyed my 1 1/2 inch top up to the weekend cover

[devon lad]

10.30

Sleet

Air Temp 2.1C

DP 2C

dl

[warmintim]

Kirkwood said upto 20cm was possible yesterday morning!

Think the cold must have got to her! Then again, I enjoyed my 1 1/2 inch top up to the weekend cover

This is almost the definition of cherry picking! Where did she say the 20cm was for? And did you say 'maybe up to 20 cm'?

[Nights King]

I'm going by the BETA forecast which is supposed to be more accurate (locally) than the general one. It updated many times during yesterday, each update changed the forecast snow intensity, none of them gave any indication of sleet or rain. The NW extra detailed forecast was far more accurate, it said sleet all the way through apart from an hour or so of moderate snow. It drizzled here up to about midnight, changed to snow and had fizzled out by 2am.

This isn't a yaboo, I haven't got snow gripe (I have) it's a disappointed in the inaccuracy of the forecast and the METO's stubbornness at sticking with their forecast when it was becoming clear it wasn't going to plan.

I have to agree with you being at a similar elevation I thought the mendips forecast on meto was poor! I just don't understand how it didnt change until so late.

[Andy Bown]

Still having snow flurries in the last hour, presumably due to the moisture remaining and uplift caused by Salisbury Plain as the cloud moves

NE-SW from that direction. The laying snow is melting gradually and it's 1.5c and rising.

[textmum]

The unexpected is so delightful! Just started snowing here, not masses, but fairly big flakes floating down! :-)

[Lynxus]

Light snow here.

Nothing special but considering it was just rain last night.

[gloucesterlad]

Light snow here.

Nothing special but considering it was just rain last night.

and snowing here too (only rain last nite ? Where were you around 11.30 ? Lovely dump of the stuff here)

Cheers !

John in Quedgeley, Gloucester

[BristolBlizzard]

Light/Moderate snow at the moment, didn't expect that.

Seems to be a bit of PPN that pepped up randomly.

[weathe20]

The forecast changed as we got closer to the time - as it always will. The mistake people are making is to take the forecast at 48 hours or 24 hours out as the final position. It isn't. Two years ago my area was smack under a red warning from the met-office for heavy snow - up to 12 inches. In the event it missed us by 30-40 miles. Thats just the way it is. I know people are dissappointed, but the criticism isn't fair here.

Sorry but METO was going for snow at lunchtime yesterday, 6 hrs from the start of the event, not 24 or 48.

[TimMB]

Yes, light snow Bristol, Frenchay.

[Jane Louise]

New thread here folks.

[multipro]

Lovely, fluffy, big snow flakes here in Stroud!

What a pleasant surprise!