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The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 5

kold weather

By kold weather
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
  • Author
Posted

Looks like the UKMO are convinced it'll be further west than expected...

Interesting...certainly a possible option and if it is further west to begin with that would probably also reduce the threat of Freezing Rain in the NW/W...

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Arctic Hare Accomplished

Arctic Hare

Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
Posted

Map from the MetO's Twitter feed:

https://twitter.com/#!/metoffice/status/167280716609110017/photo/1

5-10 cm possible up the Severn Valley into Staffs and maybe Ches; 2-5 cm possible for our entire region! However, confidence "much lower than it was last weekend".

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Map from the MetO's Twitter feed:

https://twitter.com/...9110017/photo/1

5-10 cm possible up the Severn Valley into Staffs and maybe Ches; 2-5 cm possible for our entire region! However, confidence "much lower than it was last weekend".

Excellent and both of us right in the firing line however I agree with much lower confidence than last weekend. Bit contradictory though when the text forecast sounds very certain!

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
  • Author
Posted

Map from the MetO's Twitter feed:

https://twitter.com/...9110017/photo/1

5-10 cm possible up the Severn Valley into Staffs and maybe Ches; 2-5 cm possible for our entire region! However, confidence "much lower than it was last weekend".

Whilst I've not got the same level of data as the UKMO...that looks a little too far west IMO. I'd personally shift the whole thing about 50 miles east based on the general consensus coming out from the models.

Still some real uncertainty, I think they are REALLY under-estimating the risk of Freezing rain further north in this region judging by the 850hpa profiles, especially on the GFS which NAILED that side of thjings on Saturday...

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted (edited)

GEM 12z excellent as well especially for the Central Midlands with wintry precip, mostly snow from tomorrow evening through till about 1 am Saturday!

WRF starts the snow in the East Mids but quickly arrives in the West soon after too. :)

Edited by Blizzards
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Arctic Hare Accomplished

Arctic Hare

Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
Posted

For future reference (and in case it's all we get!) this is what the fields near me (c. 90m asl) looked like in late afternoon today. A fair bit of snow still around, but roads now clear for the most part except where dirty great ice piles remain.

2nar7de.jpg

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

Looking on the 12z like the Big Snow risk is moving away from the East Midlands to the West Midlands . Lets see what happens but the MetOffice think East of Birmingham will only see light Snow.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
  • Author
Posted

NMM keeps the snow threat further east. It did a stonking jobn on Saturday, far superior to the NAE with regards to precip type which is a little worrying...

However I think its really udnerdoing the snow risk this time, and I'll for now go with the NAE solution which has got good agreement with the 12z GFS.

PS, I bet anything it shiftds east from what the UKMO think ,they are nearly always too far west with these types of set-ups...

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted (edited)

NMM 12z however keeps the snow to the East Mids only. Quite a different outcome than the rest of the models imo with the ppn dropping right into Southern England where other models seem to be more going for it clearing towards Wales...

NMM hasnt always been the best model imo and at close rnage ive seen big shifts before. Nevertheless it called last Saturday well.

However more models in favour of the snow extending West well with the NMM perhaps one of the few as it is right now!

Edited by Blizzards
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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted

Ahhh and back all on a knifedge. Looks like its going to be another nowcast situation with not too much hope from myself. We'l see though - it could be sledges or it could be tears.

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snow freak Aficionado

snow freak

Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
Posted

oh god, it looks like I will be going back and forth between coventry and northampton trying to see which is the best location for this snow event. I hope the NMM model is the correct one. Sorry West Midlanders.

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Eugene Accomplished

Eugene

Posted
Posted (edited)

Nice picture arctic, told you not to worry about too much melting snow with the frigid dewpoints arriving last night, brrrrrrr.

oh no, it's changed and the east midlands no longer seem to be in the firing line. Does that mean I have to go and visit my mum in Coventry to get the best snow in that case?

I think the west midlands is in the firing line but the best will be further west than coventry.

Edited by Eugene
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Zakos Community Regular

Zakos

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough
Posted

PS, I bet anything it shiftds east from what the UKMO think ,they are nearly always too far west with these types of set-ups...

I agree with this, the UKMO are alone in this respect

UKMO

U36-594.GIF?08-17

GFS

36-574.GIF?08-12

GEM

gem-2-36.png?12

NAE

12021000_0812.gif

Also the NMM has it further east I have been told (which I cannot acces) We must first wait and see the ECM of course, but so far the UKMO is further west with the PPN compared to the other models at 1.00 am on Friday. The NAE is worrying as the ppn isnt particularly heavy and doesn't stick around for long because the front doesn't stall.

This one looks tougher to call then the event last weekend, we should know where the worst affect regions will be tommorow morning.

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

Nice picture arctic, told you not to worry about too much melting snow with the frigid dewpoints arriving last night, brrrrrrr.

I think the west midlands is in the firing line but the best will be further west than coventry.

It's a very close run thing, IMO the West Midlands may be fractionally on the wrong side of borderline, could be freezing rain/sleet to start off with and then turn to snow. I would expect it to be all snow in the East Midlands rather than rain/sleet to snow but none of the models can agree on this even at such a close timeframe.

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NorthantsSnow Apprentice

NorthantsSnow

Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
Posted

A lot of confusion about this upcoming event now given that map the UKMO has issued. Surprised they think 'West is Best' as it doesn't really tally with the output we are seeing.

Oh well, as long as we are part of this one as it looks like we will be then I'm happy. GFS/NMM look great as it stands for a fresh 4-8cm here. :)

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Staffordshire Aficionado

Staffordshire

Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
Posted (edited)

I don't think there will be as much Chopping and changing as last event though. Thi has came up at a shorter notice so there's less time for it to shift majourly, I think it will be nailed by 6z tommorow.

Edited by Staffordshire
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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

I agree with this, the UKMO are alone in this respect

UKMO

U36-594.GIF?08-17

GFS

36-574.GIF?08-12

GEM

gem-2-36.png?12

NAE

12021000_0812.gif

Also the NMM has it further east I have been told (which I cannot acces) We must first wait and see the ECM of course, but so far the UKMO is further west with the PPN compared to the other models at 1.00 am on Friday. The NAE is worrying as the ppn isnt particularly heavy and doesn't stick around for long because the front doesn't stall.

This one looks tougher to call then the event last weekend, we should know where the worst affect regions will be tommorow morning.

I agree, the other models have the bulk of the PPN further East.

This is the current state of play with the NMM... (England is at the top of the picture, only faintly outlined for some strange reason lol)

nmm-1-35-0.png?08-18

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

As it stands, it's a 'Triple Threat Match'

GEM/UKMO - west......ECM/NAE - middle ground.....NMM/GFS ......further east

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Zakos Community Regular

Zakos

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough
Posted

Latest BBC video weather forecast stresses lots of uncertainty. To me it looks like the East Midlands will have snow Thursday evening. The uncertainty arises as to how heavy and prolonged it will be, and how far west it moves.

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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

As it stands, it's a 'Triple Threat Match'

GEM/UKMO - west......ECM/NAE - middle ground.....NMM/GFS ......further east

:rofl: WWF/WWE main event this is! A Royal Rumble between the models!

See on the GFS, it's squeaky bum time even for me and i'm not in the West Midlands

36-574.GIF?08-12

I'd like to see what data the Met Office are currently looking at.

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted

Everybody watch the bbc24 weather now, watch the graphics for thurs and fri it seems they push it through very quickly only to bring it back(using old graphics maybe?) for friday

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NorthantsSnow Apprentice

NorthantsSnow

Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
Posted

It's a very close run thing, IMO the West Midlands may be fractionally on the wrong side of borderline, could be freezing rain/sleet to start off with and then turn to snow. I would expect it to be all snow in the East Midlands rather than rain/sleet to snow but none of the models can agree on this even at such a close timeframe.

I agree about it possibly being a rain to snow event in the west, which is why what the UKMO are saying surprises me. If we take Birmingham as an example, the GFS/NMM forecast 0% potential for snow until 0600 Friday.

From there on in this percentage increases as various factors become more favourable for snow.

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Zakos Community Regular

Zakos

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough
Posted

I agree, the other models have the bulk of the PPN further East.

This is the current state of play with the NMM... (England is at the top of the picture, only faintly outlined for some strange reason lol)

cheers mate, didn't realise they had it on meteociel. It does it has the ppn further east. Its confusing as there is no real model agreement as to what the ppn goes friday morning

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