The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 5

[kold weather]

Well things are getting interesting again for the Midlands, the models are suggesting 5-10cms, though the far NW of the region may have a risk of Freezing rain as well...

Still an interesting day coming up tomorrow and into Friday.

Don't forget, general Discussion thread here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72499-significant-snow-risk-9-10th-february/page__pid__2260090__st__20#entry2260090

[syed2878]

Just checked the met website. They hav yello snow warning for wm from 1600 hours thursday to 23.59pm friday.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Just checked the met website. They hav yello snow warning for wm from 1600 hours thursday to 23.59pm friday.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=3

Here she blows !!

[mr benn]

Guys whats the feeling on thsi ice alert the met office are giving for tomorrow morning.

That could be the real danger one if true.

I was stuck in the big ice road freeze up of Birmingham about 10 years ago , and it was a nightmare.

5 hours to do a 20 minute journey.

[Ian Ballinger]

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/08/basis12/ukuk/prty/12020918_0812.gif

[Luke]

Met office say 5-10cm is possible here..

http://www.metoffice...g-rain-and-snow

Edited February 8, 2012 by Luke

[kold weather]

Ian, take a look at the next chart, that'll improve your mood!

[andy_leics22]

Met office say 5-10cm is possible here..

http://www.metoffice...g-rain-and-snow

That is a very surprising estimate in my opinion, I expect the higher risk of snow to be on the Eastern side of the Midlands not the Western side like the Met Office think. They have more data to look at than we do though so maybe they are seeing something that we haven't got access to yet? Maybe the 12z runs will back up their opinions for the West Midlands to have the highest risk.

It's all exciting and uncertain though!

[Luke]

That is a very surprising estimate in my opinion, I expect the higher risk of snow to be on the Eastern side of the Midlands not the Western side like the Met Office think. They have more data to look at than we do though so maybe they are seeing something that we haven't got access to yet? Maybe the 12z runs will back up their opinions for the West Midlands to have the highest risk.

It's all exciting and uncertain though!

Yeah, I thought it was an unusual place for the highest amounts to be too

[Staffordshire]

Been bust lately, so I pop on here to have a look at things and wow what a suprise!

[andy_leics22]

Yeah, I thought it was an unusual place for the highest amounts to be too

The park near me still has around 5cm of snow on it! If we get another 5cm+ from Thursday night we could push the 10cm mark on there :lol: I don't think Leicester has seen over 10cm of lying snow for a long long time, must be 10 years at least.

[Strider]

That is a very surprising estimate in my opinion, I expect the higher risk of snow to be on the Eastern side of the Midlands not the Western side like the Met Office think. They have more data to look at than we do though so maybe they are seeing something that we haven't got access to yet? Maybe the 12z runs will back up their opinions for the West Midlands to have the highest risk.

It's all exciting and uncertain though!

I thought that too, but their internal UKV model blows NAE into the weeds ...

Personally being in Birmingham I don't expect any lying snow at all. If I was in the East Midlands I'd expect maybe a sugar dusting, and for the SW Midlands potentially around 5cm.

[A.J]

Right then...now the NAE is out to T48, and I've gone from not-excited to interested (that's a jump from 1/10/ to 5/10 on the RAMP scale)..it forecasts snowfall as far westwards as the welsh borders and has snowfall sliding SW wards through the midlands into south wales.......yes...hmm....interesting

[andy_leics22]

Dew points look good for ALL of the Midlands on the 12z run

[JonMillar]

GFS has definitely pushed the snow event slightly westwards on the 12z run compared to earlier runs.

[A.J]

Dew points look good for ALL of the Midlands on the 12z run

agreed my man, also on the higher resolution NAE, the parameters are getting better....dewpoints 0C or below, T850's have gone from the wrong side of marginal to marginal or the right side of marginal....The far west of the region (welsh borders has a max T850 of -1C which steadily drops during the PPN of the run)....So, based on this output...east and South/SW of Coventry looks like all snow...west of that area looks like rain/sleet mixture turning to snow IMHO

'Tis a shame, AJ. I was getting excited, too, but apparently precipitation will likely fall in the form of freezing rain. Don't ask me how or why.

Your right, it will, but the latest output infers that the freezing rain may well stay to the north of our region....close call, that's why I'm not as confident as I was going into last saturday

[Ian Ballinger]

Dew points look good for ALL of the Midlands on the 12z run

apart from the 2 here

[A.J]

I need to sort out my hi-res subs tonight...very interested in checking air temps at various levels....if it's below 0c at the T850 boundary with no warming above (or below) then surely freezing rain is a physical impossibility?

apart from the 2 here

Ian, you have two choices...

1) A crash course in Geography or

2) A specsavers appointment beckons

:lol:

[kold weather]

Worth noting that the GFS did a much better job than the NAE at this stage with regards to the upper temps and the dew points on the Saturday event...so just something to bare in mind. I'm not at all concerned about the surface temps asa they WILL be cold enough easily, but the uppers are a concern fpor further west, especially as the GFS stays above 0C till the morning for NW.Midlands in particular...ECM 00z run was cooler though than both...

Its an interesting call from the Met Office, if the uppers do go the right side of marginal than it probably won't be far off...though it'll have to shift the higher precip totals further east IMO...

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Earlier the front looked like stalling for the whole day friday didnt it? Now according to the nae its more or left us by 6am fri morning??

[Costa Del Fal]

Much better NAE 12z. Initially looks a disappointment but soon picks up into a decent fall of snow!

Met Office sound confident also for the West Midlands updated at 1542: Starting off dry but bitterly cold. Early brightness will be eroded by outbreaks of sleet and snow, with some significant accumulations possible later. Temperatures struggling to get much above freezing. Maximum temperature 1 °C.

Worth noting that the GFS did a much better job than the NAE at this stage with regards to the upper temps and the dew points on the Saturday event...so just something to bare in mind. I'm not at all concerned about the surface temps asa they WILL be cold enough easily, but the uppers are a concern fpor further west, especially as the GFS stays above 0C till the morning for NW.Midlands in particular...ECM 00z run was cooler though than both...

Its an interesting call from the Met Office, if the uppers do go the right side of marginal than it probably won't be far off...though it'll have to shift the higher precip totals further east IMO...

At the same time the GFS predicted way too much rain last Saturday here especially for us in the west. It was too quick in pushing the colder weather out. Almost all the event was snow and just a little rain on the backedge.

GFS 12z however is another push west though more still needed but the trend is good.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Blizzards

[PolarWarsaw]

It looks to start as rain or freezing rain though, wont this hinder anything settling?

[Arctic Hare]

Sizeable upgrade on this afternoon's MetO text forecast for the W Mids -- no mention of rain anywhere now, and Thursday night into Friday potentially very snowy. E Mids update also concentrates on snow, but mostly light there. Here's the W Mids text:

Thursday:

Starting off dry but bitterly cold. Early brightness will be eroded by outbreaks of sleet and snow, with some significant accumulations possible later. Temperatures struggling to get much above freezing. Maximum temperature 1 °C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Snow continuing on Friday, with further accumulations possible. Outbreaks of rain and sleet likely on Saturday. Largely dry but rather cloudy on Sunday. Generally remaining cold.

Updated: 1542 on Wed 8 Feb 2012

Edited February 8, 2012 by Arctic Hare

[snow freak]

oh no, it's changed and the east midlands no longer seem to be in the firing line. Does that mean I have to go and visit my mum in Coventry to get the best snow in that case?

[JonMillar]

I need to sort out my hi-res subs tonight...very interested in checking air temps at various levels....if it's below 0c at the T850 boundary with no warming above (or below) then surely freezing rain is a physical impossibility?

I guess it will depend exactly where and when the ppn and cold uppers meet.

Per the GFS 12z on Thursday 15.00hr when the ppn first moves in to the north of the region the 0c T850 line stretches pretty much straight from the Humber to Poole anything to the NW of this line could possibly get freezing rain. It then develops a slight kink towards the SE up to 21.00hr before moving off west again and clearing the region completely by 9.00hr Friday as the front is pushed to the SW.