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Atlantic Hurricane/Invest Thread 2012/2013

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GFS again tries but fails to develop an African wave in a couple of days.

 

It does as usual produce some eye candy in FI with a long track FISH...

 

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One crumb of comfort as we sit back and watch waves die is that yet again the GFS does develop a hurricane between the 31st-2nd...

 

Perhaps a trend, perhaps nothing. We shall see.

 

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Two positives tonight.

 

1) GFS once again develops the African wave in a few days although it's a Dorian/Erin repeat.

 

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2) For the fourth day running the long tracker develops in a very similar place and a similar strength. A good trend if this keeps up.

 

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That's a big system coming in and it looks like Scotland takes some of it:

 

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Iceland gets the brunt:

 

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post-6667-0-47457200-1377158129_thumb.gi

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Two positives tonight. 

 Etc.,,,,,,More plusses namely the MJO`s "2nd coming" must surely see September as a Major burst of activity in the atlantic`s MDR?Folks in the usually affected inhabited parts of the world never want anything more than a remnant Low once in a while but I would have liked something before now as the bubble has to burst some time or other?Some likes of Fernando and successors will no doubt over shadow Andrea, Barry etc etc?Ensembles predicting numerous Low developments from the forthcoming waves off Africa so let`s see once the couple after Erin, or what was Erin, put pay to the severity of the Dry sal air and the higher MJO index back in 1 & 2 increase chances of cyclone activity come the end of next week and onward into the true height of the season. Edited by mezzacyclone

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Invest 95L now has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 48 hours. It won't be over water for much longer, but we might see Tropical Storm Fernand form before landfall?

 

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Edited by Sainsbo

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Limited sea track, as above states, but cold tops forming quickly this morning so maybe 95L "could" make Fernand(o)?

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Hawk recon later this afternoon still a go as of latest but a closed low looks likely but I have not seen any ASCAT imagery for westerly wind evidence?

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I want to say snooze but that's the only interest we've had in weeks.

 

Anyhow, despite dropping it a few days ago GFS now has 2 tropical storms at day 6.

 

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Barry part 2. How thrilling. Has a shot at becoming Fernando but 95L doesn't have enough time to become anything decent. Just as well I guess for Mexico.

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The last update from the NHC show that the system has become more organized in the last few hours, and the likelyhood of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours is now at 70%

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Recon=Teal71 has been on the runway at Biloxi miss. for 3 hrs?

So the wait goes on to see if 95L will be classified and named,,,,,

*upd* (21:31 BST) renamed AF309 recently left lou. coastline  @ 25K ft & headed SW to "area of interest" etc.

In all interests landfall will be soon but I`m sure we will have a busy time coming along starting as early as tomorrow looking at the structure of the waves and "pouches" rolling off W Africa?

Edited by mezzacyclone

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No first wave tonight but the second does still develop.

 

Pretty good consistency on the time frame.

 

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No development tonight.

 

Been very quiet out there this month:

 

 

Hurricane Season 2013 Has Been Eerily Quiet This August

 

Calls for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, with six to nine hurricanes, have been met with silence by Mother Nature so far.
 
Deadly typhoons pounded the Pacific Rim this month, but the Atlantic basin has been hurricane-free through late August. Six named tropical storms have appeared in the Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season on June 1, but none have approached hurricane strength.
 
Yet even though no hurricane has menaced the Atlantic, the 2013 hurricane season is on track for tropical storms. In an average year, the fifth named storm does not show up until Aug. 31, but it did so this year on Aug. 15 with Tropical Storm Erin, according to Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Tropical storms have wind speeds between 39 to 73 mph (62 to 117 km/h). Once the winds reach a sustained 74 mph (119 km/h), the storm is classified as a hurricane.
 
Parched and pinched out
 
Dry, dusty weather conditions in the Atlantic have crippled tropical depressions and storms trying to swirl up into stronger weather patterns, Feltgen said in an email interview. Budding tropical storms such as Chantal, Dorian and Erin dissipated when they ran into wind shear and dry air, Feltgen said. Their remnants never impacted the United States, but did cause flooding in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, along with other island nations.
 
Tropical storms and hurricanes grow bigger by feeding off warm, rising, moist air. But the Atlantic's hurricane breeding ground has been dominated by dry, sinking air for much of the summer. Dust blowing west from the Sahara Desert may also have choked off storms forming offshore of Africa, though scientists debate the effects of the dusty air, called the Saharan Air Layer. NASA is currently studying the effects of the Saharan Air Layer on tropical storm formation with unmanned drones

 

 

 

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/27/hurricane-season-2013_n_3822095.html?utm_hp_ref=green

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A couple of areas where delevopment is possible, but unlikely over the next 48 hours. 1 has a 20% chance of cyclone formation in the next 5 days, and 2 has a 30% chance.

 

I may be wrong, but it looks like the CMC wants to make something out of the second wave.

Edited by Sainsbo

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Quiet hurricane season so far — but peak period approaching

 

Despite a slow start, the 2013 hurricane season could still have a major impact as the peak of the season approaches.
 
While no Atlantic storms have reached hurricane strength, the Bermuda Weather Service (BWS) said yesterday the season is expected to get more active soon. Meteorologist James Dodgson said yesterday: “We are now approaching the climatological peak of hurricane season, and with the official hurricane season continuing through November there is still plenty of time for development to occur."As we (BWS) say every year, it only takes one hurricane to make it a busy season for Bermuda. Now is a very good time to review your hurricane preparedness plan.â€
 
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season would be more active than average due to warm waters in the Atlantic and the lack of ‘El Nino’ conditions.Early forecasts suggested as many as 19 named storms, with around nine reaching hurricane strength. So far this year there have been only five named storms, none of which have reached hurricane strength.In the last 30 years, there have been only three years in which no hurricanes formed before the end of August; 2002, 2001 and 1984.Mr Dodgson said that so far this season meteorologists have reported large areas of dry air and Saharan dust across the tropical Atlantic region, both of which hinder hurricane formation.
 
However as August nears a close, signs indicate that the season will become more active. Surface pressures in the Atlantic basin are low, water is warmer than average, Saharan dust outbreaks have diminished and the African easterly jet has become more active.“This jet, or wind in layman’s terms, drives tropical waves westwards across the tropical Atlantic,†Mr Dodgson said.“These waves are clusters of thunderstorms that form over Africa, move westwards over the tropical Atlantic, and under the right conditions are the precursor to tropical storms and hurricanes.

 

 

http://www.royalgazette.com/article/20130826/NEWS/130829797

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Why have there been no hurricanes?

 

The 2013 hurricane season was forecast to be an active one but, while there have been a few tropical storms, nothing has yet reached hurricane status. BBC Weather's Ben Rich explains why it has been unusually quiet to date - and why that could soon change.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/23868987

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August is about to end without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal. Six tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic since the season began June 1 and none of them has grown to hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 miles (120 kilometers) per hour. Accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic, a measure of tropical power, is about 30 percent of where it normally would be, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecasts.

 

“At this point, I doubt that a super-active hurricane season will happen,†Klotzbach said in an e-mail yesterday. The most active part of the Atlantic season runs from Aug. 20 to about the first week of October. The statistical peak occurs on Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Two storms formed in August and the hurricane center is tracking two areas of thunderstorms that have low to medium chances of becoming tropical systems within five days

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-30/no-atlantic-hurricane-by-august-in-first-time-in-11-years.html

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97L only has 10% at the moment but is showing signs of some development. Mid level circulation, embedded in the ITCZ and does have minor model support to become a cane in the Carribean.

 

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96L's chances have been dropped to 10% for the 0-120hr period. The wave just fizzled completely once it hit water off the coast of Africa, as the upper level environment was, once again, unfavourable.

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96L has being dropped to 0%,

 

97L has being given a 30% chance of development in 2-5 days. It is a broad system stuck in a monsoonal gyre but this does mean that while it's a slow burner it should be quite large which will help it in regards to any future shear, dry air or land interaction. SHIPS does suggest that bar a little dry air and land interaction, conditions should be near perfect with tropical cyclone heat potential high, near no shear, relatively slow movement and a moist atmosphere ahead.

 

No guarantee of development but dynamic models do have it at category 2, if i was in Jamaca or Cuba right now i would be getting pretty nervous.given the wind field this could have with its broad nature.

 

Radar looks pretty dam good and a system or not the Lesser Antilies will see gales...

 

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