Atlantic Hurricane/Invest Thread 2012/2013

[mezzacyclone]

Figure we have a green light for Gordon here SB ;o)

Let's run a dedicated thread with it?

Edited August 9, 2012 by mezzacyclone

[mezzacyclone]

furthermore, we could well be facing 93L by tomorrows end? GFS have been chopping and changing with intensity/path (fishy) etc but it`s not that common for such an early advisory only just coming out of Guinea-Bissau!

THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRACKED ACROSS AFRICA THE PAST FEW DAYS AND

EXHIBITS VERY DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVELS.

WHILE THIS CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN

600-850 MB...THE ONLY APPARENT SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ON

THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AS A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR

16N12W ACCORDING TO RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS W AFRICA.

[summer blizzard]

94L is worth keeping a watch on.

Only 10% now however large swathes of the ensembles suggest this will develop and potentially be a USA hit recurving around 70N.

[Iceberg]

yep, been keeping an eye on 94L and the global models, nearly all develop it into a quite a major hurricane(and the follow on system). Heres the last 2 runs from gfs, ecm is similiar but keeps it further north.

It might fish and recurve early or might stay south, but conditions seem to be ripe for development after 3 or 4 days.

Worth remembering that the globals have massively outperformed the tropical models so far this year.

Edited August 18, 2012 by Iceberg

[Somerset Squall]

Another 'I' storm monster in the making potentially. NHC up to 30% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs now.

[Sainsbo]

That's up to 40% now, and still looking like it could develop into a pretty big Hurricane.

[Iceberg]

94l is really motoring now, with fantastic moisture, a bit of outflow and some circulation, no llcc on visual though but it's coming up big in the rear view mirrors.

[summer blizzard]

Looks good at 50%, I retain caution until this thing slows below 15mph however (models have it fast again).

Models generally recurving further west with each run however the east coast rather than the Gulf is what the models are looking at now though i would note that one run had a major hurricane raping Florida.

My personal suspicion is that this will hit eastern Cuba and then probably the Gulf coast so something like Charlie 03 (i think), at any rate things are looking interesting for now.

[summer blizzard]

Cherry now and looks like it has a closed circulation, could be upgraded soon.

[Iceberg]

Yep I was bordering on a closed llcc on visual, maybe alttle elongated though, but at 25kt we could have a td on the next advisory or so.

Paths and intensification are difficult and very variable.

[mezzacyclone]

Cherry now and looks like it has a closed circulation, could be upgraded soon.

I`m goin with that too SB

Flight Recon maybe out earlier than Tuesday?

Euro and now GFS looking at a gulf entry with Isaac,

Is it a matter of time before one of these "Crying wolf" tendencies turns out to be a Major landfall?

[Somerset Squall]

We now have 95L in the Bay of Campeche, including the mid level remnant of former TS Helene. Looks like the new invest is spinning up quite nicely, it's in an area known for quick development too.

[mezzacyclone]

We now have 95L in the Bay of Campeche, including the mid level remnant of former TS Helene. Looks like the new invest is spinning up quite nicely, it's in an area known for quick development too.

Recon 16:30 local time today, 94L is still sched for tomorrow evening 18z over the area 500 mile west of Martinique 15.5N 53W.

What with 96L into the fray then it`s all go and difficult to keep up?

I dunno how SS handles `em all what with the far east/pacific etc.?

Edited August 20, 2012 by mezzacyclone

[Sainsbo]

94L up to 80% And according to the models with have sustaines winds of 94kts by the weekend.

And if it keeps this path may be on course for Florida. One to watch out for maybe?

[summer blizzard]

94L has not really improved in regards to it satellite presentation to me and is displaying a decoupled look at the mid and lower levels leading me to believe that it will not be classified before recon goes in. The big problem it has is that like Ernesto and TD7 it is flying at 20-25mph

95L has recon in today but will be back over land in 2-3 days.

We do have 96L just off Africa which is slower than 94L so hopefully if 94L dissapoints we can 96L follow into the Carribean.

[Iceberg]

94l has a fantastic low level circulation and banding is has very good structure but now flesh IMHO. Dry sal is impacting any convection from flaring near the centre.

There are sensitive signs that the dry air is being pushed back, but as you. Say sb at its current spead any flaring convection is soon pushed away from the centre decoupling any verticle alignment.

[Somerset Squall]

Recon 16:30 local time today, 94L is still sched for tomorrow evening 18z over the area 500 mile west of Martinique 15.5N 53W.

What with 96L into the fray then it`s all go and difficult to keep up?

I dunno how SS handles `em all what with the far east/pacific etc.?

Its quite difficult at the moment LOL

[Iceberg]

94l has the best convective flare so far over the top of its tightly packed centre probably enough for advisories to start at 9-10am today.

[Iceberg]

quick update on the models for 94l, most are starting to hint at some kind of florida hit after travelling through the islands, gfs, gfdl, ecm etc.

Heres the ecm below from the 00z. It creates quite a monster.

[Iceberg]

final add before i pop out, cloud tops of -90 now showing in the centre convection, don't know whether forward speed as dropped but it will be looking impressive soon.

[Coast]

Forecasters are watching three developing tropical systems, one of which could become Tropical Storm Isaac. (National Hurricane Center

There is an 80 percent chance Tropical Storm Isaac will have formed near the Lesser Antilles in the eastern Caribbean Sea by Wednesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

It's still too early to predict the storm's track, but weather-watching enthusiasts are discussing the possibility that it could make a turn toward the north and impact the East Coast. It's also possible it could move toward the Gulf of Mexico states or the Yucatan Peninsula, or that it could disintegrate thanks to dry air and high wind shear, of course.

The hurricane center's forecast as of 2 p.m. says that while the storm has become better defined over the past few hours, it has "limited" shower and thunderstorm activity. Conditions are nevertheless conducive to a tropical depression forming over the next day or so, according to the forecast. AccuWeather blogger Eliot Abrams shared a map in a blog post this morning indicating a high possibility of the storm tracking up the East Coast, making landfall in North Carolina or somewhere north. But, he emphasized, the map is not to be considered a forecast, just a model.

Weather Underground's Jeff Masters, meanwhile, guesses the most likely points of landfall on the Yucatan or Florida's Gulf coast. But there are factors that could pull it north, he said. Historically, storms in the same position as this one have a 10 percent chance of making landfall in North Carolina and a 20 percent chance of making landfall in Canada, according to this analysis of tropical cyclone track probabilities.

Hurricane center forecasters are also tracking two other systems, one along Mexico's Gulf coast, the other off the west African coast. Both have 30 percent odds of becoming tropical storms within two days.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/weather-blog/bal-wx-tropical-storm-isaac-likely-by-wednesday-20120820,0,1768583.story

[dallas]

Now known as TD9

[mezzacyclone]

quick update on the models for 94l, most are starting to hint at some kind of florida hit after travelling through the islands, gfs, gfdl, ecm etc.

Heres the ecm below from the 00z. It creates quite a monster.

Worryingly the form horses are showing uniform plots and are causing heightened concerns for FL residents?

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16151-t168-2108-00z/

CMC skirts the Bahamas further east http://moe.met.fsu.e...82100/slp24.png

Hazard a guess that`s its an unofficial TD by now taking into account those cold tops, N&W banding, IR flaring and overall gen appearance etc?

Recon (today 15:30 EDT) shifted the suspect area sweep slightly further NWest confirming the speedy momentum that many in the cone would prefer it keeps!

and lets not forget how impressive 96L looks

Edited August 21, 2012 by mezzacyclone

[Iceberg]

Just started a td9 thread.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74202-tropical-depression-9/

[Somerset Squall]

Double trouble? Convection is increasing over 96L too behind TD9, up to 50% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs from NHC. SHIPS takes this system close to a major by day 5.