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Atlantic Hurricane/Invest Thread 2012/2013

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Any invests that from the in the Atlantic basin in 2012 will be discussed in this thread.

more then a little out of season but we have 90L

Posted Image

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The earliest since the groundhog day storm in 1952 I believe

Edited by Candice

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NHC give a 30% chance of Subtropical Cyclone formation in the next 48hrs. If this occurs, it will only be the second storm to form in February on record, the first being the groundhog day storm that you mention Candice. The groundhog storm was classified as fully tropical however.

From NHC:

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER

FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN

SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE

LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A

SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER

ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY

NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING

NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA

KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...

THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG

GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN

BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24

KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER

OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Edited by Somerset Squall

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This is a new thread to discuss the potential threat had now been passes and into the future Atlantic Storms names, but the former Hurricane Bawbag had now been dispute last year.

I think I like the new Atlantic Storm named when a storm track is develop to grow look like a ex-tropical storm with the hurricane force winds threading, but is not just like a hurricane or even a possible hurricane force winds as sometimes as the minmal hurricanes or just even a possible major hurricanes on the way.

2012 ATLANTIC STORMS NAMES

Adolfina

Bawbag - (Major) - *Disppute*

Caralyn

Deidra

Ekaterina

Farrah

Gabriella

Halcyone

Isabella

Jamilah

Kathryn

Ledah

Miyoko

Nerissa

Orphanage

Philberta

Quoba

Roderica

Shakti

Thorborg

Ulli - (Major) - *Disppute*

Valborg

Wasima

Xynthia

Yenene

Zuleika

So I can be able to post them on the storm track with the Forecast models show where a storm path could make a direct hit on the country like a Europe, USA or even a possible in the UK like that on the threads.

Edited by Storm Track

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Temperatures are back on the rise in the Gulf so we are at the time of year when we could be getting close to a surprise.

Essentially what i have seen so far does not bode well for the season in that we have a weakening -QBO for the season and a weakening La Nina, basically the opposite direction of where we want to be.

Somewhere between average and below average for me, however a more average second half to the season could occur if La Nina stops weakening which is possible once the -QBO peaks.

We could of course still get a Gulf Monster.

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Temperatures are back on the rise in the Gulf so we are at the time of year when we could be getting close to a surprise.

Essentially what i have seen so far does not bode well for the season in that we have a weakening -QBO for the season and a weakening La Nina, basically the opposite direction of where we want to be.

Somewhere between average and below average for me, however a more average second half to the season could occur if La Nina stops weakening which is possible once the -QBO peaks.

We could of course still get a Gulf Monster.

Of course we will still get a El Nino with the tropical waters can cause severe storms, droughts, heatwaves and even hurricanes in the Western Europe earlier this year, but La Nina will stops weakening, it could even be possible to slow-moving across the Gulf of Mexico later this summer.

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This departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, with the upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind sheer that will tend to tears storms apart that is because of the El Nino.

Posted Image

Hurricane Main Development Region is on the El Nino with a yellow direction of the storms.

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Another early invest - 92L

This system had now been anticipated to over the Azores islands but it will becoming a subtropical storm named Alberto in the next two days or so. Routine issuance of the Atlantic tropical weather outlook will begin on June 1, 2012.

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This system has dissipated so will not become Alberto.

That was a shame with a exactly but this system had been thunderstorms activity with a dissipated was over the weekend that it wasn't being a hurricane season yet to begin in June 1 2012. So we will looked forward to get the activity of the Atlantic Hurricane Season very soon less than 2 weeks time.

Edited by Storm Track

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Hurricane season is here, and FSU scientists predict an active one

Scientists at the Florida State University Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) have released their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, using a unique computer model with a knack for predicting hurricanes with unprecedented accuracy.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

This year's forecast calls for a 70 percent probability of 10 to 16 named storms and five to nine hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, and an average accumulated cyclone energy — a measure of the strength and duration of storms — of 122. These numbers are based on 51 individual seasonal forecasts conducted since May 25, 2012, using sea surface temperatures predicted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The forecast mean numbers are slightly below the 1995-2010 average of 14 named storms and eight hurricanes, and reflect the possible emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and cooling surface water temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

"There is still uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of the emergence of the warming waters in the tropical Pacific along with the cooling of the tropical North Atlantic waters," said lead scientist Timothy LaRow. "These factors combined will to a large extent dictate the level of tropical activity."

LaRow and his colleagues at COAPS use a numerical climate model developed at Florida State to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters. FSU is the only university in the United States that ussues a seasonal hurricane forecast using a global numerical atmospheric model.

The COAPS forecast is already gaining recognition for its accuracy only three years after its launch. The 2009 forecast predicted eight named storms and four hurricanes, and there ended up being nine named storms and three hurricanes that year. The 2010 forecast predicted 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes, and there were actually 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The 2011 forecast predicted an average of 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, and there were actually 19 named storms and seven hurricanes. Re-forecasts conducted using data since 1982 show that the model has a mean absolute error of 1.9 hurricanes and 2.3 named storms.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-05/fsu-hsi053112.php

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95L is starting to take shape now which is surprising given it's at 38 degrees north over 22C SST's. Look at the convection forming over the centre and the banding features now starting to take shape. IMO this could be upgraded to a subtropical storm at the next advisory. Posted Image

Edited by Jack Wales

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Looking impressive! Of course, persistance is key. What is it though with all of these high lattitude invests/storms lately?

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95L is starting to take shape now

Likely to become the third storm of the season and named 'sub-tropical storm Chris' later

http-~~-//ustre.am/:1Ad8b

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Taking into account the two May systems my forecast for the season is 15/7/3.

It should be noted that 2005 was an analogue but i chose not to include it so if anything i expect higher figures than posted.

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Looks like 96L is going to go bang, -90C cloudtops and a Texas landfall possible.

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The CMC model made 96L into a fairly nasty looking system. What are SSTs and shear like over the GOM at the mo?

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The CMC model made 96L into a fairly nasty looking system. What are SSTs and shear like over the GOM at the mo?

SST's are generally around 28-29C with very low shear forecast for the next few days. pressures are falling over the area and very cold cloud tops were obseved yesterday as per SB's post. All the ingredients are there for a potentially powerful system.

The only blocker at the moment is the apparently weak circulation with no discernalbe LLC. However the latest satellite images appear to show convection becoming more concentrated to a smaller area east of the Yucatan peninsular combined with early signs of an outflow beginning to establish. If the rotation can tighten, this system shouldn't waste any time to get going!!

Posted Image

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A large weather disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico could develop into a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days, forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Thursday.

The mass of thunderstorms had a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within 48 hours and could bring flooding rain to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and southern Florida, the forecasters said. It stretched from the northwest Caribbean into the Gulf and was expected to move slowly northwest to north in the next two or three days. It was too early to know whether the system would threaten energy interests clustered in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

"It'll probably be out in the central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Beyond that it's very difficult to say," said Jack Beven, a senior hurricane forecaster at the hurricane center. It would become a tropical depression if it wraps around and develops a closed wind circulation. It would become Tropical Storm Debby if those winds reach 39 miles per hour (63 km per hour). "This one probably will not jump straight to a tropical storm," Beven said. "It's very broad and will take time to consolidate." Nonetheless, the forecasters said, "Interests along the entire United States Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance through the weekend."

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Chris briefly strengthened into a hurricane in the North Atlantic off Newfoundland on Thursday but posed no threat to land, forecasters said. Chris became the season's first Atlantic hurricane on Thursday morning when its top winds hit 75 miles per hour (120 km per hour), just over the threshold for hurricane status. By late afternoon it had weakened back to a tropical storm with 70 mph (110 kph) winds. It was about 585 miles (940 km) east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and was expected to weaken further as it made a slow loop over cooler waters during the weekend.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but got off to an early start this year. Tropical Storm Alberto quickly fizzled off South Carolina and Tropical Storm Beryl soaked the southeastern United States in May.

http://uk.reuters.co...E8HL70G20120621

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92L could be upgraded soon, currently at 30% but a strong spin to it now even if it is weak.

In the short term much like Ernesto it will struggle (similar track as well) however it should get into the Gulf.

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92L is now a cherry at 70% and satelite presentation to me looks good although it is lacking deep convection.

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Have had a look at a few factors for 92L and my own take is the following..

Next 2 days, synoptically a lot of subsidence which will make development tough although 92L seems to be fighting it off.

Days 2-4 - Both factors for or against but given the time of year (August-October is peak season) i would punt for intensification so we may have a strong Tropical Storm approaching the Windward Islands.

Days 5-6 - Increasingly favourable outlook due to a Kelvin Wave.

On the whole i personally think the outlook is better than Ernesto.

Note that this assumes it does increase to a crazy speed like Ernesto.

......

One more thing of note is that it has started moving WSW.

Edited by summer blizzard

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