Atlantic Hurricane/Invest Thread 2012/2013

[Somerset Squall]

Looks pretty decent at the moment, should become a tropical depression over the next day or so. I expect this will be the last cape verde cyclone as conditions here start to deteriorate from here on in, then we need to be looking for home brew Caribbean storms as we head further into October.

[JonMillar]

96L up to 90% looks like Oscar could be on his way

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF

THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES

WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Update:

Now TD15 - it may briefly get to Tropical Storm status but is likely to dissipate in 48 hrs.

000

WTNT45 KNHC 032034

TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012

500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DEFINED BY SEVERAL SWIRLS

REVOLVING AROUND A COMMON POINT...WHICH IS DISPLACED ABOUT 80 N MI

TO THE WEST OF A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS

ARE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30-KT

DEPRESSION. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR

INFILTRATING THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR

SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT

OCCUR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING

INTO A TROUGH IN 48HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED

NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE

ISLANDS AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD

ISLANDS. A NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A

NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES

EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE

DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS MOTION SHOULD THEN

CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE

AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE

PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 04/0600Z 19.7N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 04/1800Z 21.2N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 05/0600Z 22.9N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BERG

Edited October 3, 2012 by JonMillar

[summer blizzard]

15/7/3 - I made this prediction on 21st June and to date we are 15/8/1 so overall i think that the result will be within an acceptable margin of error.

[JonMillar]

Invest 98L given a high chance of turning into a tropical storm this weekend. Forecast to affect the Leeward islands before being whisked north, missing the mainland but threatening Bermuda later.

Edited October 12, 2012 by JonMillar

[stevofunnelcl]

99L with a 90 percent chance

models disagree, but Mark Sudduth is giving heads up on potential for big impacts

The Perfect Storm - 1991 is mentioned

http://hurricanetrack.com/

[Staffordshire]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWw-FmXb5CI&feature=youtube_gdata_player

not to sure if this is the right place, but he seemed to have an idea of a late season hurricane, maybe check out his other vids of him predicting an early start to winter 2012!

Please move if needed

[summer blizzard]

Not sure if this is the right thread...

Ernesto upgraded to a strengthening 85KT hurricane at landfall with 973mb (doesn't sound bad to some but for a hurricane it makes it a nasty little bugger).

Sandy upgraded to 100KT at Cuba (major hurricane status) but is as i expected declared post-Tropical at landfall in the north eastern states. With that being said as it was approaching some areas of New York/Long Island may have experienced its effects as a hurricane for a short while. From a personal point of view i suspected it would be sub-tropical or extra-tropical and the NHC did say they only kept the advisories at hurricane force for continuity.

[summer blizzard]

Greetings.

It may be on the early side (2 months until the official start) but i thought we discuss the coming season and people's thoughts.

I'm personally leaning towards a reasonably active season but with quality over quantity when compared to the last few years, 2004 and 1990 are potential analogues.

Atlantic sea surface temperatures in the tropics are well above average.

[Alex95]

I'm going to Florida in July and August so hopefully not too active!

[summer blizzard]

I'm going to Florida in July and August so hopefully not too active!

August-October is peak season though recent years have produced nothing major for Florida.

[Coast]

April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2013 from TSR:

TSRATLForecastApr2013.pdf

[Coast]

2013 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST

A wild season is on the way, and the "major hit drought" on the US coast should end. In fact, multiple major hits are likely this year with the cold PDO, warm AMO decadalsignal favoring the East Coast, as in the 1950s.

Having a cold PDO and warm AMO is a natural US landfall hit problem, as it changes the overall interaction between the tropics and temperate regions, so the western Atlantic basin is favored for activity relative to averages. The PDO Is now cold. This only goes out to 2007, but we can see how the last cold cycle of the PDO while the AMOwas warm in the 1950s had ramped up East Coast activity.

Playing into all this is a disturbing linkage between the 400 mb pattern and Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in March and some of the mega seasons we have dealt with. The playing field is very different from last year with the cold March at 400 mb.

Last year:

This year:

This is in line with my top 5 selected seasons (2004, 2005, 1964, 2010, 1969) based on the 400 mb pattern and ocean temperatures in March.

The SST in those years:

The SST this year:

I came up with these years by going through each of the top ACE years after looking at lower ACE years and seeing little that were this close. There are high ACE years that did not match, but the years outlined gave the amazing closeness that you see to this year as of March!

There are some interesting years in here as the tropical Pacific was warm in 2005, 2004 and 1969 (the latter two El Nino years), which as I pointed out last year showed the value in the 400 mb level test, as the El Nino could not hold down the ACE! Remember this method is for the deep tropics, south of 22.5 North.

The moral is this will be a much more dangerous season for the Caribbean, and likely the southeast US. The decadal signal argues for activity up the East Coast, while the Gulf and the further west one goes is more of a chance. Nowhere would I have activity less than normal, and this year the ACE will be the combination of these years averaged with the average since the AMO flipped (1995). This averaged ACE figure is 126. The average of the analog years is 195. The average of the two is a hyperactive ACE forecast of 165. From this figure, we look for a total of 16 storms, with 5 majors, 7 category 1 or 2, and 4 tropical storms.

Last year, Dr. Maue suggested blending in the ACE in warm AMO since 1995 and if I had, it would have limited the ACE error, which came in 3 storms in the Atlantic north of 25 North, including the eyesore near the Azores, Nadine. Dr. Maue's suggestion would have pulled UP the ACE from the analog I used. This year, Dr Maue's suggestion is factored in, but pulls DOWN the ACE! The top 5 analog seasons give us an ACE of 195 or so. I am using the combination of both and upping it a bit from the mid point of 160 to 165 to adjust for what I see as a bias toward keeping storms longer and stronger in areas that are using satellite coverage. It is a big year, no matter what.

I am not going to play games with numbers, as the ACE will be calculated from a specific outlined area that I will show in the map, as we are getting named cyclones that are never verified in the middle of nowhere, or storms that last for less than a 3 day forecast period. So, we are not really interested in the game in the middle of nowhere, and the map will define what I will look at relative to the established history of hurricanes before the naming frenzy that is occurring. You will see below where I think the bulk of the action will occur, and eyesores near the Azores are not that big a deal. I find that most practicing meteorologists are very much in my camp on this.

I have long advocated two Atlantic naming areas so we can have a way to accurately measure seasons against the past, and to eliminate what has become a political problem with people using hurricanes as evidence of climate change. I want to avoid that argument, and I will look at the areas that have merit, as far as established history (and in reality, what matters to us, storms that are relatively close to the areas we are concerned about).

This year will be much different from last year with ramped up activity in the classic tropical long-tracked breeding areas. The Gulf loop current is alive and well, and warm water near the East Coast spells trouble there. The map contains a cone that comes from the tropics toward the US.

2013 Hurricane Season

There are no areas where I can say below normal activity is expected. The arc of highest threat is based on the pattern similarities to 2004/05, and the decadal threat of the 1950s. The loop current is alive and well in the eastern Gulf right now and the AMO is in classic hurricane mode. The warm 400 mb level is OPPOSITE last year. Unlike last year when I could take a stand on saying the deep tropical activity will be well below normal, there are no areas I can identify this year as being below normal. I do not expect quite the spray of 2005 west because of the decadal threat being further east, but this is by no means taking a stand on Texas against hurricanes. It is taking an early stand on the magnitude of the season I see coming on and based on the research, where we would have to look for the most mayhem.

I am calling it as I see it and I think this season has bad intentions. Unless someone can show me a strong El Nino coming on, the 1969/2004 seasons show how a weaker one doesn't matter when you are lined up with warm water and a warm atmosphere at the start. May will be crucial! A negative NAO would seal the deal (a reason for an active tornado season, by the way) and it doesn't have to be cold when we have negative NAOsdeeper in the season, but a cooler May is another signal. In any case, this is where we stand now.

The Power and impact scale

Power:

This is a scale from 1-10, rather than 1 to 5, that incorporates the pressure and wind speed, along with an adjustment based on the storm's pressure tendency. An Intensifying storm is more likely to have the structure that can quickly and efficiently bring the west strong winds in the lower part of the storm to the surface. Conversely, a weakening storm is one where the strongest winds are probably not reaching the surface. An example of the former would be Andrew as it reached south Florida, and an example of the latter would be Floyd as it reached the Carolinas. Under our scale, a storm like Ike was plainly a major hurricane. As if we rate this 1 to 10, the pressure of Ike at 950 mb would have given the storm a pressure contribution of category 3.6 while the reported wind of 105mph was at 2.75. It is not that the WIND needs to be adjusted for the category, it is the understanding of what the pressure means in the western hemisphere as far as the overall energy of the storm that has to be adjusted. This scale means that if we know the storm has a power rating of 6, either the energy is spread out a bit so that if it does bundle we can expect the greater damage (eye wall tightening, or the large area of stronger winds though not as intense at the center over water causing a greater piling up of water over a larger area) as in a major hurricane. If Ike were deepening, the storm would be given an extra 0.5, if weakening we subtract 0.5. In any case, it’s a classic example of why describing the overall power of the storm can help prepare one more than just focusing on the one minute wind speed at the center.

Impact:

Based on the above scale, storms are rated from 1 to 100, where the perfect storm is close to 100, while the weakest depression is a 1. This is used to make forecasts for the US and western hemisphere impact forecast that we do, but can also be used for smaller areas. For Instance, suppose you wish to know what impact this year will be for the Gulf, east of 90 West. We would take our analog package and then give you a figure, and relate it to recent years. We will use 2008 as the example, since it is one of the analog years. The point here is that we have to “spread†this scale out, and in reality, it is probably not spread out enough but will drive home the point about “bang for the buck.†A storm like Ike had a landfall impact rating of close to 65. It is similar to Isabel in 2003, for instance. But a storm like Andrew with a category 4.75 pressure and category 5 winds would be close to 100 (Camille, Labor Day 1935, etc. are in there too).

The Big Worry:

When one studies tracks and understands the cycle we are in (tracks of major hurricaness up the East Coast in the 1950s, for instance),

you understand that 10 years from now Sandy and Irene may be looked at as precursors to what was going to happen in this cycle. I want you to look at this. It shows what may, in reality, be expected. Irene hugged the coast, so she weakened. Sandy was late in the season, off peak, warmth of the water. What happens if a storm has a mid ground track at the height of the season?

Why not? Look at September 1903!

Look at the end game track!

Or, shift the 1938 storm 100 miles west:

In fact, what I drew (the in-between storm) is 1938, shifted a little west. How anyone can rationally blame CO2 for these storms? If you simply look at what has happened, that is beyond comprehension to me. Or what if we got the 1947 track and the intensity of Katrina or Camille?

That is 25 feet, not 9 feet, of water back into Lake Pontchartrain. Can any rational person look at these facts and not understand that what happens is nature? In fact, the question should be Why haven't these storms happened? The answer is that there is an entire set of storms that is not yet complete. This has been with us since the earth evolved to the way it is now and will continue. These storms will happen, as the set will be completed, as nature intended.

In the grand scheme of it all, we are in a heightened time, but you can see the method behind my madness. Sad to say, it takes a lot of time and research, but nothing more than that and common sense as well as a knowledge of what occurred in the past. There is no magic, no great equation, no discovery of what is not already there, always been there, and always will be: the weather.

http://www.weatherbe...Season-Forecast

[Coast]

We are less than 2 months away from the kickoff of the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. With that said, its about time for me to post my tweaked and reanalyzed outlook on what the Hurricane Season may bring this year.

Figure 1. A satellite view of Major Hurricane Sandy over Cuba on October 25, 2012.

~~~~Factors and Predictions~~~~

Climate Pattern (El Nino or La Nina?)

Though some may say that the climate pattern is too uncertain toward whether or not an El Nino might emerge this Summer, it can be noted that the Equatorial Waters of the Pacific have cooled since the start of 2013. This signal shows a significance toward the strength and likelihood of an El Nino event. With a cooling trend in place this would decrease the chance of an El Nino pattern for this Summer.

Figure 2.

April 8th issue of the Global Analysis SST Anomalies from NOAA/NESDIS. Blue represents below average, Red represents above average.

Climate Pattern Forecast for Summer 2013

65% Chance of persisting Neutral conditions

25% Chance of the development of a La Nina

10% Chance of the development of an El Nino

Atmospheric Conditions: Pros & Cons

Though the main factor you can almost point out immediately is Above Average Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's), there is more to it than just warmth of ocean waters. The other conditions, Air Moisture, Upper-Level Winds(Wind Shear), Trade Winds (Yes, there is a difference between Trade Winds and Wind Shear, even though they have similar effects), and last but not least Vertical Instability. These factors are what build seasons up into dangerous and deadly ones, or drive them into the ground to be dismal and quiet. The following is what appears to be the case for what this season's conditions will offer for Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic. This year has not only had showed us some warm waters, it has stayed mainly Negative in the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), which typically means a Weaker Icelandic Low and Azores High. This negative phase in the NAO weakens strong steering currents that push huge tropical waves, that are apart of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ), off of Africa and allow them to form easier. When Trade Winds are strong, systems cant keep themselves together which typically ends in the storm becoming a "Naked" swirl of low level winds, due to the circulation getting ripped out from under the Convection.

Figure 3. The pattern and affects of having a Negative Phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Pros

-Above Average SST's

-Energy Focused into Tropics because of cooler Subtropical and Eastern Pacific Waters

Cons

-Saharan Dust/Dry Air

Mutual Factors

-Neutral Event

-Average Wind Shear

-Average Instability

-Negative NAO though its beneficial, the phase may tend to flip flop.

Historically

My analogs stand as they are... 2005 (Most active season on record) and 2010 (3rd most active season on record, tied with 2011, 2012, 1995, and 1887) come the closest. Both seasons were Hyperactive.

2005 and 2010 both stand with the SST's that almost replicate that of 2013, as well as stood with Neutral/La Nina Conditions. Winter Analogs also stand very similar.

Overview

I foresee a season with many more storms with origins in the Tropics, rather than the Subtropics that dominated 2012. This means that storms will be capable of tapping into larger amounts of ocean heat content, that have sat untouched by any Major Hurricane for years now. This means more Hurricanes, on top of more Major Hurricanes. The instability stands at average levels, which will be capable of allowing a couple of seriously dangerous storms this year. The other atmospheric conditions present will also allow an Above Average amount of storms to get going in the Atlantic. Though Warm waters sit out near the Cape Verde Islands, the tropical waves that emerge into the Eastern Atlantic off of Africa, will prefer to escape the Saharan Dust and possible Positive NAO that may bring stronger Trade Winds if the NAO were to flip throughout the season. These conditions in the Eastern Atlantic would result in more storms forming from these same tropical waves just farther west. This chain reaction of factors would then mean places like the Caribbean Islands, Central America, and the US would be in the Threat Zone.

Figure 4. The differences and affects of the different phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Landfalls

Getting more specific into US landfall, the pattern of a Negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) that is an apparent event that will be set up over the Central Pacific for this year, will keep things dry across the Southwest US setting up a High Pressure system. This would result in a blocking mechanism to set up over Texas, pushing Storms that come far enough west into Central America, or if they stay east, they will be pushed into the weakness that would be set up over Southeastern US and US eastern seaboard.

Landfall Chances

-Decreased Chance of Landfall on the Western Gulf Coast

-Increased Chance of Landfall on Central America

-Increased Chance of Landfall on the US Southeast

-Increased Chance of Landfall on the East Coast of the US

-Increased Chance of Landfall on the Caribbean Islands

*An increased likelihood of Storms making Landfall in General.

Lastly, my 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season April Forecast

18 Named Storms

11 Hurricanes

5 Major Hurricanes

These Numbers were placed on the high side of my previous range from my February Outlook due to the more condensed consensus of an Above Average Season.

My New Range Stands at...

16-20 Named Storms

9-12 Hurricanes

4-6 Major Hurricanes

http://www.wundergro...tml?entrynum=39

[Coast]

Early 2013 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts suggest active year

Mon, 08 Apr 2013 08:49 CDT

The 2013 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season begins on the 1st of June and runs until the end of November. As ever, around this time of the year the forthcoming hurricane season features more heavily in insurance and reinsurance firms and catastrophe bond & ILS investors thoughts as the season approaches and the first forecasts of hurricane season activity are published. Early indications from forecasts released in the last few days suggest we could be in for an active storm season.

April sees the first forecasts emerge from some of the forecasters we choose to follow, selected for their longevity, trust within the reinsurance markets and relative accuracy over the years we've been following the Atlantic hurricane seasons development. This year the early forecasts are all suggesting an above average Atlantic tropical storm season helped by sea temperatures which are above normal levels already and only likely to rise as the year progresses.

Today we've launched our 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season page, which features the usual tracking maps, storm by storm updates throughout the season, forecasts, satellite images and other useful links. Bookmark this page as it will be updated as each storm forms and the tracking map will automatically show every storms progress and development throughout the season.

Two forecasts are already available, the first from reinsurance broker Aon Benfield supported Tropical Storm Risk who we've followed for many years, while the second is from Weatherbell's Joe Bastardi, a well-known name in the forecasting world. Another of our preferred forecasters, the Colorado State University Tropical research team, is due to publish its forecast for the season on the 10th April.

Tropical Storm Risk first. They forecast that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will see 15 named tropical storms, 8 of which they predict will become hurricanes and 3 of which will attain Category 3 status or higher becoming major hurricanes. This is about 30% above the average storm formation levels and TSR said that it puts the above average nature of the 2013 hurricane season down to two factors.

Firstly, the forecast models suggest lighter than normal trade winds across the Caribbean Sea and tropical north Atlantic which can help to influence the cyclonic vorticity, or spinning up, of storms which can help to increase intensification. The second factor is the long-range forecast for slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic's main hurricane development zones during the peak months of August and September, again a factor that could help to intensify storms and cause more to form.

Next Weatherbell, a private forecasting firm, who employ well-known forecaster Joe Bastardi. His prediction for the 2013 hurricane season was released recently and it calls for 16 named tropical storms, a very high 12 hurricanes and 5 hurricanes reaching major status of Category 3 or higher. That's a very active season if it became reality!

Bastardi also puts a lot of emphasis on the warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic ocean, saying that 2013 could be a very dangerous hurricane year for the Caribbean and the southeast U.S. However he also forecasts above average activity up the East coast and into the Gulf and further west as well. He believes that 2013 will see hurricane activity shift back to the traditional paths we know from seasons such as 2004 and 2005, with hurricanes tracking a little further south than in 2012.

Both forecasts suggest that the northern Gulf of Mexico to the east coast of Florida are the areas with the highest landfall risk for hurricanes in 2013. But both also stress that in an above average hurricane season landfalls are possible elsewhere as well and the Caribbean is certainly also at risk.

http://www.sott.net/...est-active-year

2013 Atlantic storm names:

[Coast]

[Coast]

Fewer, but more severe hurricanes, are predicted in the first major forecasts for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

ImpactWeather has predicted this year could see fewer storms developing into hurricane strength, but more hurricanes intensifying to category 3 or higher. The company normally offers advice to businesses in fields like oil and gas, petrochemical, healthcare and financial services. “Since weather is the number one cause of business disruption, this prediction carries much weight for companies focused on protecting their people and their assets,†Mark Chambers, president of ImpactWeather said. “Considerations such as when – or even if – operations must be shut down, damage to facilities, supply chain interruptions, and safety protocols are all top-of-mind when severe weather is imminent.â€

The projection, which is one of the first for the year, predicts between 16-20 named storms for the 2013 hurricane season. ImpactWeather expects seven-to-nine of those projected storms to reach hurricane strength, fewer than the 10 hurricanes last year. But the service said two-to-four storms could reach Category 3 strength or higher – meaning sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour. There was only one such storm in 2012. A total of 19 named storms formed in 2012, eight more than the historic average. The year tied 2010 and 2011 for the third-busiest season on record. ImpactWeather’s prediction for the Atlantic Ocean comes around two months before the start of hurricane season, which stretches from June 1 through November 30.

http://www.antiguaob...icted-for-2013/

[Coast]

Seems everyone wants to get in on the predictions for the 2013 season and a lot are going for stronger storms.

Ready for Hurricane Season? The Predictions Are Starting to Come in

Last year when the world was held rapt at the plight of Northeastern residents during "Super Storm" Sandy, we along the Gulf Coast chuckled. Not at the suffering of the people there. In fact, we understand those poor people and what they went through better than just about anyone else. We were laughing over the coverage for a storm that, in these parts, wouldn't even stop us from going to work. Hell, it would take a bigger storm than Sandy to get us to hunker down and a much bigger one to actually evacuate.

That's because, like the calluses you build up when you spend your summer walking on hot pavement (anyone else remember that?), we've developed a tolerance for the weather that accompanies hurricane season. We know how to prepare. We know what to do when threatened. We're veterans.

Still, every year about this time, the first really serious predictions for what we might expect beginning June 1 and ending November 30, and we all take notice. So far, a couple prediction models have come out -- the biggie by Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University will be released next week -- and they both predict a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic and particularly along the Gulf Coast. The Weather Research Center here in Houston, which includes the Weather Museum (how have I never been there?), released its predictions on Thursday calling for nine to 12 named storms, with six of them reaching hurricane strength and three making landfall in the U.S. Joe Bastardi over at Weather Bell is even more bullish according to the SciGuy blog at Chron.com (Weather Bell is a paid, private prediction service).

He's calling for 16 named storms, an unusually high number of hurricanes at 12 with at least five of those reaching major-hurricane status. I have generally found Bastardi's predictions to be overly aggressive, but he is respected in his field and his number of named storms is not out of line with what I believe most will predict. But 12 hurricanes is an extraordinarily large number as is five major storms. In 2005, the busiest year on record in the Atlantic, there were 15 hurricanes, seven of which were major storms. It's hard to imagine we'll have anything close to that. Last year, we had ten hurricanes, but only two of them were major. There is good reason to believe we will have a busy year in 2013, however. We are still in the middle of what scientists refer to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Basically, the water in the Atlantic is warmer than normal during these 25- to 40-year periods. Unfortunately, this current cycle began only 18 years ago in 1995. Additionally, sea surface temperatures, a significant factor in fueling hurricanes, are higher than normal already this year.

The graphic above shows the difference between what the water temperatures are now and what they are normally. Areas in red indicate substantially warmer than normal temperatures. Now, they are still WAY below what is needed to form hurricanes, but it's worth noting that we are already above average in many parts of the Atlantic.

That one big red blob in the northern Gulf is associated with the Loop Current, a characteristic that creates warmer than normal temperatures in a deep pocket referred to as an eddy. A large, extremely warm eddy was largely responsible for the rapid intensification of hurricanes like Katrina and Rita in 2005. One thing that both predictions agree upon is where most of the storms are predicted to go. Determining steering currents and upper-level airflow patterns is extremely difficult, and, of course, unique weather patterns at the time of a storm have a significant impact on where hurricanes go. But both forecasters suggest that the area along the northern Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic coast of Florida is the most likely target for hurricane activity, while Texas is in an area of lower possibility for a strike.

This doesn't mean Texas won't be affected. We probably will at some point during the season be threatened by a storm. In fact, a good tropical depression or named tropical storm would be good for our drought-stricken region. But, any prediction that suggests Texas is at a lowered risk is a good thing. There will be additional forecasts next week and throughout the season as meteorologists refine their predictions. For now, we do our annual preparedness drill and wait. Such is life on the Gulf Coast.

http://blogs.houston..._the.php?page=2

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season 2013

2013 SEASONAL OUTLOOK

21 TO 24 STORMS 9 TO 11 CYCLONES 3 TO 5 MAJORS

.................1 TO 2 CAT 5's.................

http://www.wundergro...KEEPEROFTHEGATE

Edited April 9, 2013 by Coast

[Coast]

Europe increasingly unlikely to be exempt from the effects of Atlantic hurricanes?

Europe to see increase in part-hurricane, part extratropical Sandy-like storms

APRIL 9, 2013

A recently published study suggests that western Europe will be hit by an increasing number of hurricane like and hybrid storms, not unlike hurricane Sandy, as the global climate warms. The study titled ‘More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming‘ suggests that by the end of this century western Europe could see many more occurrences of tropical storms and hurricanes making their way north-eastward to impact the continent. Hurricanes and tropical storms hitting Europe is not that uncommon in reality, however storms have generally weakened considerably by the time they travel far enough to the north and east to impact European countries. There have been a number of occasions in recent memory when storms have traversed the Atlantic and made landfall on European shores, Jeff Masters discusses this in connection with this study on his WunderBlog here.

This study looks at how a warming climate could affect weather models and patterns with a particular focus on the threat to Europe from tropical storms and hurricanes. The climate model studied predicts that the ‘breeding ground’ for Atlantic hurricanes will shift 700 miles to the east as the ocean warms this century. Thus, any storm forming further east can spend longer over warm, tropical Atlantic waters, enabling it to generate more power and become more defined, as stronger hurricanes generally do. This means that as storms turn to the north and east, which many do during every Atlantic hurricane season, more of them will have generated sufficient power to make the long journey northwards without losing as much intensity. Europe is regularly affected by the remnants of Atlantic hurricanes each year, but if this prediction comes true then more of those remnants may still be fully formed extratropical storms threatening damage and of course insured losses.

The model shows that wind shear is not predicted to change much over this century in the region meaning that the researchers forecast that many more storms with hurricane force winds will reach Europe as we move through this century. Most will be extratropical in nature, but as Jeff Masters rightly points out hurricane Sandy has shown just how devastating an extratropical storm can be. The model shows that the number of hurricane-strength storms to impact Europe between August and October could rise from 2 per year to as high as 13 over the century and that by the end of the century all hurricane strength storms in Europe will have originated in the tropics. The paper concludes that “tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety.â€

Clearly this would have a very big impact on the insurance and reinsurance industry, who currently protect themselves against European windstorms which tend to be winter storms. The generally accepted season for European windstorms is from December through to the end of March, roughly, and the reinsurance industry are prepared with a reasonable amount of cover in force each year. European windstorms are through to cause on average around €2 billion of economic losses each year and around €1.5 billion of insured losses, making them the second highest cause of global natural catastrophe losses after U.S. hurricanes. According to Perils AG windstorm Kyrill in 1997 had an insurance industry loss of around €3.6 billion. The year 1990, which saw eight storms in a short period of time cross Europe in the winter is thought to have caused around €13 billion of damages.

European windstorms are a serious enough threat to insurers and reinsurers that catastrophe bonds, industry loss warranties (ILWs) and other collateralized reinsurance solutions are regularly used to transfer the risk of these storms to the capital markets as well. But how would the insurance and reinsurance market react if the number of summer extratropical storms began to outweigh the winter storms? If the studies forecast comes true we could see a time by the end of this century where insurers and reinsurers are more concerned about hurricane type and hybrid storms impacting Europe than they are about the European windstorms we’re all familiar with now. Europe could, if the worst case of 13 storms per year came true, become equally at risk of insured losses due to hurricanes as the U.S. is today. That would create a need for significant risk capital to be made available and we’d likely see a big increase in the use of catastrophe bonds to hedge the risks.

The year 2100 is a long way off, but with many climate scientists seeing ocean temperature increases happening right now the risk of these part-hurricane, part extratropical Sandy-like storms is growing all the time and the threat to Europe and insurers and reinsurers with it. It’s also worth being reminded of a 2007 study which suggested that by the end of this century we could see hurricanes being spawned in the Mediterannean.

http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2013/04/09/europe-to-see-increase-in-part-hurricane-part-extratropical-sandy-like-storms/

[mezzacyclone]

Good stuff coast, with lots to digest,All eyes on the ITCZ sooner than normal this year then? with anticipation of valued input via cohorts IceB, SS, SB, karyo etc?But I cant help but feel that some intervention from mankind may purposely be altering the intensity and size of some of these TS's-pre 'Canes? as recent Hurricanes, Irene a prime example, showed anomolous evolution apparently not brought on by the usual atmospheric hurricane inhibitors? (vert shear, dry air etc.) yet overall size and area covered appeared(s) larger than previous 'canes?Is their a legitimate case for intensity being decreased, at cost of area being increased, purely a natural coincedence? and therefore a simple matter of one of many symptoms differing in the overall setup?Looking forward to the season, but I guess I would not be saying that If I were a resident who had to "know the cone"? :o/

[summer blizzard]

Some very interesting goings on...

 

Firstly it appears as if movement is actually towards La Nina now rather than El Nino but at any rate we will be seeing a close to neutral Pacific setup.

 

The AMO is pretty high, the tropical Atlantic is really heating up.

 

Great video...

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical384.gif

 

 

.......

 

Perhaps most interesting though is the predicted forecast of the MJO in around 20 days forecast to be a high amplitude phase 7/8 wave which in the first ten days of June could lend itself to an early start, infact both the GFS and GEM ensembles have both gone for some south Carribean activity and the GFS operational tonight actually went bonkers (encouraging to see this early though)...

 

 

I would also add that looking at the data i have high optimism for this hurricane, especially a more USA prone pattern.

[Somerset Squall]

Yeah, I have a feeling we will get a landfalling major on mainland USA this year...

[dapick2002]

Some very interesting goings on...

 

Perhaps most interesting though is the predicted forecast of the MJO in around 20 days forecast to be a high amplitude phase 7/8 wave which in the first ten days of June could lend itself to an early start, infact both the GFS and GEM ensembles have both gone for some south Carribean activity and the GFS operational tonight actually went bonkers (encouraging to see this early though)...

 

 

 

I would also add that looking at the data i have high optimism for this hurricane, especially a more USA prone pattern

 

As much as I enjoy watching storms, and following TSs/hurricanes, I am in Jamaica from the 22nd may to the 5th June, and I for one hope the season start holds out for another month... are there any more updates from you more knowledgeable members on how things are currently shaping up? Thanks in advance.

[summer blizzard]

As much as I enjoy watching storms, and following TSs/hurricanes, I am in Jamaica from the 22nd may to the 5th June, and I for one hope the season start holds out for another month... are there any more updates from you more knowledgeable members on how things are currently shaping up? Thanks in advance.

 

I would not worry too much. We know there will be a high amplitude MJO wave moving through around that time but that's guarantee of development itself anyway and the hottest part of the basin is south of Jamaca and storms at this time of year are more likely to take a more westerly route than north (though possible).

 

............

 

Not the thread for it per say but the East Pacific is coming alive, several models have a tropical depression forming in the next few days.

 

Edited May 13, 2013 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

No chance of an early suprise from the ECWMF.

 

 

Looking at the GFS it's very similar although it tries to form a tropical depression off the coast of Belize near the end of the run.

 

[summer blizzard]

 

Nothing from the 12z either.