North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 6

[SnowObsessor90]

No it wont be mild at all,probably 4 or 5 in the day and below freezing at night out to friday,after th.at there is a slight warm up on the ecm ensembles but this week looks pretty cold.

That was my initial hunch before reading some of the posts in the MOD thread anyway, just wanted to be absolutely sure, that's all.

Speaking of which the MetO's further outlook seems to be hinting at a break down from the easterly flow in the second half of the month to something more on the milder side which completely goes against the idea of northen blocking so assume i should be taking their comments with a pinch of salt also?

[toggerob]

Near whiteout conditions on the tops first thing this morning with the snow and fog ontop, I could barely see where I was putting my feet nevermind what was ahead of me. So much for a high pressure ridge creating inversion layer fog (as the BBC forecast promised yesterday) even at 1050ft I gave up after 30 mins of waiting for the clouds to part, and headed back down. Vis has improved by only 1/4 mile.

[UV-RAY]

MetO 16-30 dater update finally extinguishes all hope of cold and snow, on the plus side no more freezing rain.

[lukemc]

MetO 16-30 dater update finally extinguishes all hope of cold and snow, on the plus side no more freezing rain.

.

But they are often not that accurate and are subject to change - and also - why oh why does the 18z run last night want to pick up on a milder trend - BT said ignore it, it is just the "pub run" - but the Met Office seem to think that it may possibly be right - personally I don't think it is because it was against the backround signals like the stratospheric warming etc.

Luke

[UV-RAY]

.

But they are often not that accurate and are subject to change - and also - why oh why does the 18z run last night want to pick up on a milder trend - BT said ignore it, it is just the "pub run" - but the Met Office seem to think that it may possibly be right - personally I don't think it is because it was against the backround signals like the stratospheric warming etc.

Luke

There 16-30 dayers have been very good for the last year or so, they seemed to have picked up a milder signal.

[HotCuppa]

i think its really very silly to be talking about 'another' cold spell...face it we are now heading right into spring, its been a mild winter here and in the coming weeks its just going to keep getting milder. I don't mind this scenario, because we are finally at the end of one an atrocious excuse for a winter.

In truth I myself cannot even justify even calling what we've just had as winter, infact what we've just experienced is more like the 3 stages of autumn..warm temps, plenty of rain and wild atlantic storms..which we've experienced right through until January...and if you look at it objectively like this...it's hard to ignore.

Now those in the south and the east, cannot say the same thing really...they've experienced some form of winter...but here by the coast or just in from it, it's like we've entered autumn and never left it...and for me, we have some how managed to miss winter entirely...even in late autumn you get cold over night frosts, and even low day time minima's as you head into winter...but for a continuation of the proverbial nail in the head?

Lots of hope casting and lots of 240 hours we'll get this and that...but the truth is, we all know how bad the models have been, heck even now only to 24 hours.

Anything in a week or two, will be 2 weeks later...and spring will be almost upon us, i dont care how calm the atlantic is...the sun is now out longer, hence longer days, radiation heating is / will have an effect...and when it comes to mild v cold, especially this side of the country and especially a really mild irish sea will ultimately win the battle..and it did not take much to win after yesterday..regardless how weak the block.

what would you rather have? slushy wet stuff, or snow? I know my preference...stroll on spring and summer so we can look forward to next winter, who knows maybe we will get 'lucky' again.

well thats enough from me for now

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

still plenty of snow to go sledging here so the kids are having a whale of a time!

Like i said,decent event,not quite as good as i hoped but a fun day sledging yesterday and today for the kids and now the thaw will start properly this evening and the rest of the week.

Im looking forward to some warm sun now i think people will be suprised how much warmer the sun is now compared to say nov/dec hopefully a decent spell of settled conditions develop soon although still cold at night obviously.

[Lancashire Lass]

Afternoon all

To those fortunate enough to get snow, get out and enjoy it. To those of us including myself who got nowt. I'm sure our time will come before winters out.

[Snowmad79]

Hot Cuppa, Even with my two previous snow events and my current 10cm+ dolloping, it has been a generally poor winter overall. Maybe that is because I'm greedy or maybe its because winters in 1980's through to the start of 2000's saw tonnes more snow dropped on this area. I mean one day of snow doesn't cut it when you've experienced weeks worth with 10ft+ drifting in past winters, full days and nights of snowfall, temporary thaws then another rapid onslaught of snow storms. Anything short of this is just not good enough for me. Sadly they are just brief affairs now a days

Edited February 5, 2012 by Snowmad79

[SnowObsessor90]

Looks like I've already more or less got the answer to my MetO question and it isn't the one I'd like to hear.

Honestly can anyone give me a solid reason why I shouldn't just give up on winter now? because I'm, really, really struggling here.

[Martin M]

Near whiteout conditions on the tops first thing this morning with the snow and fog ontop, I could barely see where I was putting my feet nevermind what was ahead of me. So much for a high pressure ridge creating inversion layer fog (as the BBC forecast promised yesterday) even at 1050ft I gave up after 30 mins of waiting for the clouds to part, and headed back down. Vis has improved by only 1/4 mile.

Quite glad I chose to stay in now and not go out for a walk. Still foggy here, I'd say its got even worse here the past hour or so after looking like it was slowly lifting.

I have to say the past 2 years we've had loads of fog, nearly everytime its snowed, before the past couple of years fog had got pretty rare around here I thought.

[Snowmad79]

Looks like I've already more or less got the answer to my MetO question and it isn't the one I'd like to hear.

Honestly can anyone give me a solid reason why I shouldn't just give up on winter now? because I'm, really, really struggling here.

Because its 5th Feb and not the 5th May ?... It's the only good reason I can think of lol

[Liam J]

Looks like I've already more or less got the answer to my MetO question and it isn't the one I'd like to hear.

Honestly can anyone give me a solid reason why I shouldn't just give up on winter now? because I'm, really, really struggling here.

Because we are only 5 days into what is statistically the coldest winter month? February normally brings more snow than Dec & Jan to many parts of the country, even March can be snowier than December. But the spring sunshine does tend to melt it fast unless you have a decent depth with is frozen then this reflects the suns radiation.

SST's are at there lowest during Feb & March so modification becomes limited. I don't give up on winter weather until April time, but we all have different preferences.

Edited February 5, 2012 by Liam J

[toggerob]

This was as bad as it got towards Hawkhurst Head, I did go higher but things improved somewhat towards 10am. The stick you can just about see was less than 10 meters away and that's with the camera more or less aimed at the horizon (or where the horizon is as I usually see it from that vantagepoint on the hillside.) Luckily local knowledge and orientation helped find me around with little difficulty, the ice was the bigger concern.

[jpwild]

Rubbish day.

Wanted to go to Cracken Edge, and even woke up at 6.20 am to get ready and set-off, but the fog looked very thick and met office website said fog all day, so gave up on that idea.

Went up to Lyme Park instead and turned back as the fog was too thick.

Some decent snow drifts on the walk up to Lyme Park around the back entrances.

[Weather-history]

Honestly can anyone give me a solid reason why I shouldn't just give up on winter now? .

Mid May 1935 and the previous winter was excpetionally mild

Edited February 5, 2012 by Mr_Data

[Backtrack]

i think its really very silly to be talking about 'another' cold spell...face it we are now heading right into spring, its been a mild winter here and in the coming weeks its just going to keep getting milder. I don't mind this scenario, because we are finally at the end of one an atrocious excuse for a winter.

In truth I myself cannot even justify even calling what we've just had as winter, infact what we've just experienced is more like the 3 stages of autumn..warm temps, plenty of rain and wild atlantic storms..which we've experienced right through until January...and if you look at it objectively like this...it's hard to ignore.

Now those in the south and the east, cannot say the same thing really...they've experienced some form of winter...but here by the coast or just in from it, it's like we've entered autumn and never left it...and for me, we have some how managed to miss winter entirely...even in late autumn you get cold over night frosts, and even low day time minima's as you head into winter...but for a continuation of the proverbial nail in the head?

Lots of hope casting and lots of 240 hours we'll get this and that...but the truth is, we all know how bad the models have been, heck even now only to 24 hours.

Anything in a week or two, will be 2 weeks later...and spring will be almost upon us, i dont care how calm the atlantic is...the sun is now out longer, hence longer days, radiation heating is / will have an effect...and when it comes to mild v cold, especially this side of the country and especially a really mild irish sea will ultimately win the battle..and it did not take much to win after yesterday..regardless how weak the block.

what would you rather have? slushy wet stuff, or snow? I know my preference...stroll on spring and summer so we can look forward to next winter, who knows maybe we will get 'lucky' again.

well thats enough from me for now

Sorry HC - but how very wrong you are.

A quick look at the 500mb anomaly charts will tell you that we're due a very blocked month with winds from the North or East dominating. Way above average pressure over Scadinavia & Greenland meaning blocking out East before retrogressing over Greenland. Look for waa over Greenland promoting high-latitude blocking.

Come the end of February, I guarantee you will have to eat your words, as you'll probably be complaining that your pipes have frozen. Given the output we're getting from the ECM - especially the ensemble suite with even the unreliable GFS hinting at blocking to the NW at times, it's a pretty silly statement to make, especially considering some of the largest snowfalls recorded have been in Mid February to mid March!

Edited February 5, 2012 by Backtrack

[Winter Monsoon]

Sorry HC - but how very wrong you are.

A quick look at the 500mb anomaly charts will tell you that we're due a very blocked month with winds from the North or East dominating. Way above average pressure over Scadinavia & Greenland meaning blocking out East before retrogressing over Greenland. Look for waa over Greenland promoting high-latitude blocking.

Come the end of February, I guarantee you will have to eat your words, as you'll probably be complaining that your pipes have frozen. Given the output we're getting from the ECM - especially the ensemble suite with even the unreliable GFS hinting at blocking to the NW at times, it's a pretty silly statement to make, especially considering some of the largest snowfalls recorded have been in Mid February to mid March!

Yes but with the strength of the sun its gone in a day or two. Seen it happen way too many times in Feb, March, April.

[Backtrack]

Yes but with the strength of the sun its gone in a day or two. Seen it happen way too many times in Feb, March, April.

It's worth noting, that snow over 3 inches deep will easily reflect the sun in February.

It's only slightly stronger than in January, and it's not a major player when it comes to snowfall. Especially as we're in the North. In the South, I may be slightly concerned, but considering the UV index is below 1, it's still very very weak. Come mid-March, you'll start to notice how fast it is able to melt snow, but not in February, hell no.

[chiffer]

Well keep your hope us that it'll snow consecutively for a few days then

[UV-RAY]

It's worth noting, that snow over 3 inches deep will easily reflect the sun in February.

It's only slightly stronger than in January, and it's not a major player when it comes to snowfall. Especially as we're in the North. In the South, I may be slightly concerned, but considering the UV index is below 1, it's still very very weak. Come mid-March, you'll start to notice how fast it is able to melt snow, but not in February, hell no.

3 inches deep, the chances of us seeing that this winter are slim to none I'd say. I'm with HC, winter 2011/12 RIP.

[Winter Monsoon]

Love your optimisum BT gawd i hoep your right but i have this horible feeling that what we had lastnight will be it till next year. 2009/10 was the coldest and snowiest winter i had seen in the last 10 years these last 2 havent been as cold or snowy for me.

[Isolated Frost]

BT is correct. It is not optimism, it is proof. 500hpa charts seem supportive of HLB becoming more organised and a shift towards blocking heights around Greenland.

And its total rubbish to dismiss winter on Feb 5.

Also, it is insane to suggest Feb sun will affect snow depth, perhaps towards the last week of feb, but even then, colder SSTs and less modification allows a colder source than the same date in january, even with a stronger sun.

Some of the ranting on here with no reasoning from some moaners just makes me laugh.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

BT is correct. It is not optimism, it is proof. 500hpa charts seem supportive of HLB becoming more organised and a shift towards blocking heights around Greenland.

And its total rubbish to dismiss winter on Feb 5.

Also, it is insane to suggest Feb sun will affect snow depth, perhaps towards the last week of feb, but even then, colder SSTs and less modification allows a colder source than the same date in january, even with a stronger sun.

Some of the ranting on here with no reasoning from some moaners just makes me laugh.

im willing to stick my neck out and say most of the NW of england will see liittle if any more lying snow for the next 2 weeks minimum,

[Winter Monsoon]

BT is correct. It is not optimism, it is proof. 500hpa charts seem supportive of HLB becoming more organised and a shift towards blocking heights around Greenland.

And its total rubbish to dismiss winter on Feb 5.

Also, it is insane to suggest Feb sun will affect snow depth, perhaps towards the last week of feb, but even then, colder SSTs and less modification allows a colder source than the same date in january, even with a stronger sun.

Some of the ranting on here with no reasoning from some moaners just makes me laugh.

Im not moaning. I actually did quite well from last night got about 2 inches.....its probably all gone now though. And that's what im fearing. Last week when it was even colder as soon as the sun hit any frost it melted it within 15mins. Come end of Feb sun will be stronger. So yeh there maybe blocking etc but we need real deep low temps and they simply arent showing on the models. Models lastnigh were way better for cold but since then theres been a shift away from it.

Im just trying to be practicle here im not moaning if you think i am then sorry.