North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 6

[kold weather]

Some real uncertainty for this region in the near future, I do think things will cool down somewhat again, to what extent is unknown.

Still here is a new thread for you all anyway!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

As long as we have cold am not that fussed. A nwley would be good and could sort us out, is there any sign of a nwley or are we a constant hp with easterleys

[Backtrack]

2.6C and misty.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Some lovely scenes here. The fog is turning all the ice white and our house's side is now white along with all the houses here from the fog freezing. Even though the temp is abobe freezing

[I Cumbria Marra I]

the charts look terrible

[karyo]

I am in Brussels at the moment where there is snow on the ground and the maximum temperature for today will not be higher than -6c! I can see on the webcams that Manchester has snow on the ground from yesterday. I am coming back tonight and hope that some of it will survive as the temperature doesn't rise too much.

Karyo

[Backtrack]

Well the models are starting to firm up on some cold night time temperatures from Tuesday.

Could be even colder than the temperatures we experienced last week.

[Backtrack]

the charts look terrible

Are you completely insane?

What's terrible about the Azores linking up with high pressure over Scandinavia? This is going to yet again create very cold Easterly feeds for a time, with the cold becoming embedded yet again, followed by blocking to our NW around mid-month?

Either way, this month is going to turn out cold, we can't miss out on the snow forever, we'll get it once we can establish some northern blocking over Greenland.

[damianslaw]

Oh just when as I was posting in the far n england thread - the fog has cleared and the sun is tring to burst through the cloud - the lower fells are appearing out of the milky sky in there white splendour. Hoping any sun won't do too much damage to the snow cover- thanks to the 3-4 inch cover it would probably only remove the top inch at best and then I suspect it will all freeze again overnight. One positive for retaining snow on most surfaces is the lack of wind - the trees are cloaked in the stuff, often the wind quickly strips the snow from the trees even in sub-zero temps.

We now have recorded 2 mornings with snow cover- preety abysmal for the time of year, but we should rack up a fair few mornings this coming month.

[Snowmad79]

-5 at night 6c during the days doesn't really take my fancy tbh. ECM ensembles show a warming up down south so you would expect it would be even warmer up here in the UK (if the entire ensemble suite even remotely came close to verifying).

Prior to this mornings runs it was supposed to be 0c days with the odd 3 or 4 which now looks wrong and more like 5-7c by day with the occasional frost.

Currently 5.5c on this part of the pennines

[Backtrack]

-5 at night 6c during the days doesn't really take my fancy tbh. ECM ensembles show a warming up down south so you would expect it would be even warmer up here in the UK (if the entire ensemble suite even remotely came close to verifying).

Prior to this mornings runs it was supposed to be 0c days with the odd 3 or 4 which now looks wrong and more like 5-7c by day with the occasional frost.

Currently 5.5c on this part of the pennines

How can you be at 5.5C, when I'm only at 2C?!?!

2.2C here.

[Snowmad79]

How can you be at 5.5C, when I'm only at 2C?!?!

Not sure but the sensor is working fine now after stabilised yesterday. 6c and the snow is melting.

[Backtrack]

Not sure but the sensor is working fine now after stabilised yesterday. 6c and the snow is melting.

No chance mate, everywhere around you is at 1C.

Step outside, does it feel like it's 6C?

Btw - if you want snow, check the Met Office latest forecast updates.

Edited February 5, 2012 by Backtrack

[Snowmad79]

It does.. becuase the fog has lifted and the sun is coming through

[SP1986]

Well the models are starting to firm up on some cold night time temperatures from Tuesday.

Could be even colder than the temperatures we experienced last week.

Well the models are starting to firm up on some cold night time temperatures from Tuesday.

Could be even colder than the temperatures we experienced last week.

I'm very sceptical of this.. perhaps over snowfields yes, in fact I think those temperature are predicted in the view that snow is supposed to be lying, of course it is not, and they won't be that low.

Currently 7.1C and feeling mild!

[Liam J]

6.3c here and feeling balmy after the recent temps

Met office looking pretty average with the 5 day forecasts 5-7c by day and around freezing or just below at night.

Edited February 5, 2012 by Liam J

[Snowmad79]

How low to the ground is your sensor ? just curious because mine is a meter off the ground on a pole.

[Backtrack]

It does.. becuase the fog has lifted and the sun is coming through

Is your sensor in the sun then?

My sensor is 2 meters off the ground.

I'm very sceptical of this.. perhaps over snowfields yes, in fact I think those temperature are predicted in the view that snow is supposed to be lying, of course it is not, and they won't be that low.

Currently 7.1C and feeling mild!

Really wouldn't of thought the models take into account the snowfield effect?

Btw - gonna get beatings in college after I told everyone it was gonna snow.

[Winter Monsoon]

Saintpeter, on 05 February 2012 - 10:02 , said:

a lot worse. when we get snowd in we can get our house keys out of the car god help him. how do they get the house keys :lol:

it been known to bring planes down too

funnily enough snow is made in the same way as freezing rain.

Tiny droplets of moisture super cool and when they bump into each other they freeze instantly. as the other moisture droplets tuch the already frozen flakes they get bigger and bigger till they hit the ground as snow.

The power of ice! Helped bring down Air France 447 when supercooled water lodged in the pitot tubes of A330 at 35000ft.

Computer was then getting false airspeed readings,switched off and plane goes into unrecovered stall.

Thats technically not what happened. Yes the Pitot was blocked so sending false reading to the auto pilot. IT was an altitude change that caused it, they i think were cleared from 330 to 350 so they climbed but because the auto throttle/AP was getting a false reading it didnt increase power to the engines.

Thus as they climbed they lost airspeed. Now normally as you get close to a stall youll get the stick shaker, butin this instance as far as i remember the stick shaker was also linked to the faulty pitot so didnt engage. It was night and the pilot's didnt have the horizon as a ref point or they would have realised sooner that the angle of attack the auto pilot had taken was way out of normal flight envolope. Unfortunatly by the time the pilots had realised what was happening it was too late the plane stalled rolled onto it's back and from there on the situation was lost.

Very rarely can a commercial airliner recover if it rolls onto its back they simply arent designed for that eventuality. Infact i can think of only one case where the pilots managed to recover from such a situation and that was a china airlines flight that stalled in turbulance and somehow by skill and pure luck they manged to recover with about 5000ft feet left. Ironically NTSB blamed the pilots for getting into that situation and then commendating them for being able to recover and save 200+ lives. Theres pics of that plane after it had landed virtually all the elevators had been ripped of that plan along with landing bay doors and to this date no crew has ever been able to do what those pilots did in a simulator

[SP1986]

Is your sensor in the sun then?

My sensor is 2 meters off the ground.

Really wouldn't of thought the models take into account the snowfield effect?

Btw - gonna get beatings in college after I told everyone it was gonna snow.

Is your sensor in the sun then?

My sensor is 2 meters off the ground.

Really wouldn't of thought the models take into account the snowfield effect?

Btw - gonna get beatings in college after I told everyone it was gonna snow.

I'm pretty sure they do, not the snowfield effect but they definitely take stock of where it has been snowing. I recall heavy snow forecasted numerous times over parts of the country, where the GFS predicts -12 or -13C, locally in that area.

Some of the temperatures forecast look unlikely for next week, unless you live over a snowfield/further southeast.

I'm willing to stand corrected but it doesn't tally with my experience.

[Backtrack]

I'm pretty sure they do, not the snowfield effect but they definitely take stock of where it has been snowing. I recall heavy snow forecasted numerous times over parts of the country, where the GFS predicts -12 or -13C, locally in that area.

Some of the temperatures forecast look unlikely for next week, unless you live over a snowfield/further southeast.

I'm willing to stand corrected but it doesn't tally with my experience.

But it's a similar set up to earlier in the week, albeit with warmer uppers.

Clear skies, slack easterly, little wind.

At this time of year, you're easily going to get a -4/-5 under those conditions.

[Julian]

3.8c here. I'd like to say that the snow is melting, but all I got was flippin' rain.

[UV-RAY]

Looks a rather boring set up for the week to me, rain/drizzle tonight/tomorrow, followed by grey laden skies Tuesday/Wednesday, then turning colder with night time frosts. Off course we will get the familiar get the cold in place first comments, but we had that this week didn't we.

[Snowmad79]

Is your sensor in the sun then?

My sensor is 2 meters off the ground.

Nope its sheltered from the sun. Anyway cloud has blocked the sun out again so temp is dropping again 6.2c . Meto sounds like typical atlantic dross to me, wet windy at times with slow moving bands of rain and a very very very very slim chance of snow for those at mount everest heights.. that rules me out

Edited February 5, 2012 by Snowmad79

[damianslaw]

Not sure of the temp here- think it is still at freezing point. Shap is still -2 degrees. The fog isn't shifting that much due to the southerly/southeasterly feed - northern and western aspects are seeing the sun break through only.

If we retain the low cloud - I can't see the temp getting much above 2 degrees at best - but will wait and see, the sun is trying to break through from time to time.

Snow cover reflects the sun anyway, it also generates its own cold pool. If we do see clear skies mid week and the snow is still on the ground then yes some preety cold nights will be recorded. Had we these conditions on thursday night just gone , -15 degrees would have very likely been achieved with much more lower minima countrywide.