The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[NickR]

Some showers about at the moment, Cleadon has taken a "dry line" in between two showers (one to the NW, one to the SE) in the last half-hour, with a temperature of 1.0C, so presumably somewhere must be getting sleet or snow.

I'm in that dry line too.

I'd like to see an analysis of where tends to be favoured for dry lines... does convection tend to be more focused on particular lines/regions, I wonder.

[Mick ne durham]

Heavy Sleet ,Washington 20 mins ago. looking on the Radar, The next shower about 12.30am, could be bang on me again.

Edited February 6, 2012 by Mick ne durham

[Geordiesnow]

I'm in that dry line too.

I'd like to see an analysis of where tends to be favoured for dry lines... does convection tend to be more focused on particular lines/regions, I wonder.

Those showers were quite isolated and weak so you can't really judge on which area tends to get dry lines on last night.

Sometimes I feel I'm in a "dry line" during easterlies which can be frustrating but whilst you see other areas getting showers and your area very little for an hour or two, you can certainly be in the line of showers for the next 6 hours or more as been proven plenty of times in the past.

Northerlies are different, much more reliable to get constant shower after shower unless the flow veers NNW'ly and then you start seeing the showers retreating towards the coast although sometimes snow streamers can form!

[JP1972]

Latest models seem to be settling on heights positioning favourably for a N/NE maybe setting in about 7 days from now. The only fly in the ointment has to be the METO update which doesn't reflect what the models are showing.

Still, with the way the models have flipped in recent weeks there is still time for a) the METO to come on board in their longer range forecast or B) for it all to go titticus verticus.

Those in the know seem reasonably confident that the former is more likely than the latter.

Fingers crossed that winter 2011/12 is about to begin ...

[Continental Climate]

Did anyone catch the ITV weather tonite? What a load of rubbish it said our region was going to be down as low as -15 with the forecaster droning on about the coldest night of the year so far!!

LOL we were even colder than the scottish highlands and a good 6-7C colder than surrounding regions

[Geordiesnow]

Did anyone catch the ITV weather tonite? What a load of rubbish it said our region was going to be down as low as -15 with the forecaster droning on about the coldest night of the year so far!!

LOL we were even colder than the scottish highlands and a good 6-7C colder than surrounding regions

Never seen the forecast(Never took ITV weather seriously since they replaced forecasters with TV Presenters) but the -15 figure will most likely be in the snow fields in the Vale of York, don't see why its not possible, you can already see the continental air making an presence in East Anglia and the SE and the airflow is heading this way. Most areas will probably see between -3 upto -5 in the region tonight. The highlands will be warmer as a warm front is nearby and Scotland is under milder air.

[Alex95]

Things are trending the right way today with signs for high pressure to build to the NW by early next week, but there is still some way to go before we get a snowy spell in the NE.

[Continental Climate]

Things are trending the right way today with signs for high pressure to build to the NW by early next week, but there is still some way to go before we get a snowy spell in the NE.

Yeah alza lets hope for a proper sustained greenie high as it was this pattern that brought the north east its great winters of the last two years!! I preferred 09-10 winter to 10-11 as we got some decent cold in January 09-10 and cold in Jan had been almost non existant in the winters prior to 2008.

I just hope the height rises to the NW dont fizzle out or topple because if they do then i believe its over until next winter. IMO this is our last opportunity for prolonged deep winter cold and snow

[JP1972]

Can only look for trends and at present things are shaping up.

Obviously in meterological terms we are miles away just yet, but fingers crossed and all that ...

[NickR]

Is it me or is that system coming down the country on Thursday going to give us (possibly freezing) rain before turning to snow from York down to the S coast? That would tip me over the edge, I think!

[Alex95]

Yeah alza lets hope for a proper sustained greenie high as it was this pattern that brought the north east its great winters of the last two years!! I preferred 09-10 winter to 10-11 as we got some decent cold in January 09-10 and cold in Jan had been almost non existant in the winters prior to 2008.

I just hope the height rises to the NW dont fizzle out or topple because if they do then i believe its over until next winter. IMO this is our last opportunity for prolonged deep winter cold and snow

09/10 felt like a classic throughout, whereas 10/11 ended at the end of December really, but Nov 10 had more snow than Jan 10. Of course 30cm still fell quite widely in Jan 10 and at the time I thought it was the most snow I would see for years!

Is it me or is that system coming down the country on Thursday going to give us (possibly freezing) rain before turning to snow from York down to the S coast? That would tip me over the edge, I think!

It's looking like a distinct possibility. I'm not getting hung up over it though, a prolonged NE'ly would deliver far more snow than a band of frontal snow.

[Snowstorm1]

Not another frontal event for the SE again I might tip over the edge with Nick! Why cant we get the 10cm and cold tempss!

[NickR]

09/10 felt like a classic throughout, whereas 10/11 ended at the end of December really, but Nov 10 had more snow than Jan 10. Of course 30cm still fell quite widely in Jan 10 and at the time I thought it was the most snow I would see for years!

It's looking like a distinct possibility. I'm not getting hung up over it though, a prolonged NE'ly would deliver far more snow than a band of frontal snow.

Except the NE'ly might not happen. Bird in the hand and all that...

[damianslaw]

Yes there is a good chance of another freezing rain event for our region on Thursday morning - I'm not sure what causes freezing rain- I think it tends to occur with warm fronts and quite mild uppers moving into cold surface air. Cold fronts rarely deliver freezing rain thanks to the colder uppers - I may be wrong...

It would be a bit annoying if we do see freezing rain, but then once the front hits north midlands it turns to snow giving the southeast another good dousing.. but I suspect the front will be fizzling out by the time it makes it to the SE.

It would be nice to wake up to a cover at least on Thursday.

Back to current conditions- another very cold night ahead, potentially down to -8 degrees by dawn, however, right now we have cloud cover and a breeze which is preventing temps from dropping. Once the cloud dissapears the cloud should die down as temps will drop markedly.

Tomorrow looks a cold one - more cloud about, quite a raw day.

On the snow front - the strength of the sun is showing its hands on the fells, its unusual to see the snow covered fields against the backdrop of brown fells - the reason being the freezing conditions on low ground maintaining the snow cover, but the sun baked southern aspects of the fells have seen them stripped of the snow. There is also a marked north-south divide in the lake district. In the north - there is no snow cover below 700m whereas in the south many valleys and sheltered parts are covered in the stuff.

[Cloud 10]

An area of very low dewpoints spreading over the region during the night which gives the

possibility of the coldest night of the winter so far.

Maybe pushing it to get to double digit minus figures.

[paul tall]

The NOAA report uses the integration method to compute the mean, but when I save the file to the archive I manually work out the mean, and use that for the month end summary.

As for temperatures, -6.8º this morning, a degree or so colder than you as usual, so no change from the normal variation between our two stations. Went through Dean Bank yesterday and noticed how little snow was left, very unusual for there to be less there than Newton Aycliffe.

[tynevalleywinter]

Got down to -8.3 last night here. 2nd coldest night of the winter.

Looking like for the 2nd time in a week we will be too north for snow after already been too far east ealier in the season. The joys of freezing rain. All hopes now for a greenland high to bring a n`eastly or its back to the drawing board for winter 2012\13.

An added note on freezing rain. Didn't it bring Quebec to its knees a few years ago.

Edited February 8, 2012 by tynevalleywinter

[4wd]

Did anyone else notice a very low pitched boom about 10:17?

There was one boom which vibrated the whole house.

It was somewhat similar to the effect when a large mass of snow falls off the roof.

A few seconds later was a more muted double boom.

Obvious explanation would be something breaking the sound barrier - with the quite still anti-cyclonic conditions a boom could travel a long way across the North Sea for example.

There's always the possibility of meteor or space debris too.

[NickR]

Didn't hear anything here, Col.

Can anyone offer ANY hope for Thurs/Fri?

The GFS 06z has the 0°C isotherm a LITTLE further W and nudging the S and coast of our region... is the hope that it will extend a bit more on the day a completely forlorn one?

[NL]

An added note on freezing rain. Didn't it bring Quebec to its knees a few years ago.

Somehow I dont think in the near future we'll be seeing 'ice-storms' quite like Canada experience..

[Snowmaggedon]

What are the latest snow prospects for our region on Thursday/Friday? I notice that the Met Office has part of the region under a Yellow snow warning...

[4wd]

Look North seemed to talk mainly about freezing rain and sleet.

[Cloud 10]

Did anyone else notice a very low pitched boom about 10:17?

There was one boom which vibrated the whole house.

It was somewhat similar to the effect when a large mass of snow falls off the roof.

A few seconds later was a more muted double boom.

Obvious explanation would be something breaking the sound barrier - with the quite still anti-cyclonic conditions a boom could travel a long way across the North Sea for example.

There's always the possibility of meteor or space debris too.

Was just mentioned on the ITV regional news,nobody knows what it was.

[4wd]

It seems very similar to this event on 13th January (didn't hear that one)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2085847/Earthquake-reported-north-England--experts-say-buildings-shaken-sonic-boom-PLANE.html

[damianslaw]

Lack of posts today suggests little hope of snow tomorrow - just freezing rain. I'm positive the far north of england will see synoptics much more favourable for snow later in the month once the northerly/northeasterly establishes itself.

Must say I'd rather it was just simple plain rain - freezing rain is a kick in the teeth it has to be said.