Scotland Regional Discussion - Cold Spell Part 2

[lorenzo]

Individual runs are going to be a dogs breakfast at present, the models throwing up differing solutions for a transition from one block to another. I really wouldnt look much further than the 12z each day for anything concrete at the moment. There are a few messy solutions out there, even the ECM isn't as clean as usual on its 00z run. However if you want to punish yourself then have a look at the lp around greenland scuppering the Greenland high and also another shortwave melodrama around the BI.

Am still happy with the trend to cold, am also happy that 'winter' lasts a wee bit longer 'up here' than doon the road.

[Sunny Leith]

I'm almost in agreement with you Joe. Almost ! To be fair this winter is probably closer to most average winters, than the last couple we've had with their notable and intense cold spells. At least the almost perpetual strong winds of Dec into Jan have bogged off.

Sooner this dog of a winter is over the better

[LomondSnowstorm]

Individual runs are going to be a dogs breakfast at present, the models throwing up differing solutions for a transition from one block to another. I really wouldnt look much further than the 12z each day for anything concrete at the moment. There are a few messy solutions out there, even the ECM isn't as clean as usual on its 00z run. However if you want to punish yourself then have a look at the lp around greenland scuppering the Greenland high and also another shortwave melodrama around the BI.

Am still happy with the trend to cold, am also happy that 'winter' lasts a wee bit longer 'up here' than doon the road.

It's not as clean, but I don't think I'd complain about this:

(I'd still rather see the GH though).

ECM ensemble suite looks consistently cold enough for snow uppers wise, which is the main thing.

Height rises to the north, northwest look to be on the cards, how shortwaves move around is open to debate but we'd be unlucky not to see a prolonged cold spell I reckon

[lorenzo]

Yep LS - I aint complaining at all ! 240 is a cold looking chart.. looking forward to watching this one track in over the next 10 days..

[Hairy Celt]

4C and raw, occ light showers and no funny clouds today.

[LomondSnowstorm]

An interesting week ahead I think. The block will remain to the east, with milder Atlantic air attempting to build in at times, but the interactions between the two are far from clearcut. The NAE shows this very strong temperature gradient across the counry by Tuesday morning:

The potential for shortwaves undercutting the block and introducing an easterly flow or fronts to encroach far enough east to set up battleground snowfalls are both still feasible. The middle ground solution between the two is one of high pressure sitting over Scotland, which again is not exactly a mild option. After that, the PV splits, shunting one segment into Scandi and another well to the west of Greenland. Look not for snowfall events but for heights to build to the north in positions that allow for cold upper air to be advected towards us.

[edo]

I feel yer pain Joe but maybe you should book a trip to lapland each year because you cant depend on the scottis winter..or rugby or footy or summer or goverment or transport system blah blah blah......but then again we are good for an invention.....we have been spoiled as before the last 2 winters we hoped for snow and i must admit i expected it this year so i got swept along.....just one decent fall thats all i want im not greedy...

I think trend still looking v good....we were suppposed to be engulfed by mild air and having a mild week coming up but now we do not....im sure if we keep tapping the cold like this the synoptics will fall into place for a decent snowfest....mayb....and if not we can all enjoy the spring!!

[Cheggers]

Nice enough day, bits of sun, no rain and very raw in the breeze. Temp a balmy 4C

[A Winter's Tale]

Yep LS - I aint complaining at all ! 240 is a cold looking chart.. looking forward to watching this one track in over the next 10 days..

That's one helluva of a chart! From which model run did that come from?

Background signals remain fine I reckon though individual runs will vary. It looks like gradually turning colder as the week goes on with potential for snow increasing as time goes on. I'd still favour a greenie high but an Icelandic or north Scandi one would be fine too. We were rather spoilt by the 12zs.

It's not as clean, but I don't think I'd complain about this:

(I'd still rather see the GH though).

ECM ensemble suite looks consistently cold enough for snow uppers wise, which is the main thing.

Height rises to the north, northwest look to be on the cards, how shortwaves move around is open to debate but we'd be unlucky not to see a prolonged cold spell I reckon

Been reading various of the forum and the general theme isn't all that optimistic about a Greenland High. I suppose our ideas and moods will change run by run.

An interesting week ahead I think. The block will remain to the east, with milder Atlantic air attempting to build in at times, but the interactions between the two are far from clearcut. The NAE shows this very strong temperature gradient across the counry by Tuesday morning:

The potential for shortwaves undercutting the block and introducing an easterly flow or fronts to encroach far enough east to set up battleground snowfalls are both still feasible. The middle ground solution between the two is one of high pressure sitting over Scotland, which again is not exactly a mild option. After that, the PV splits, shunting one segment into Scandi and another well to the west of Greenland. Look not for snowfall events but for heights to build to the north in positions that allow for cold upper air to be advected towards us.

Although the Greenland High doesn't look all that clear cut, next week could be interesting! Like the Greenland High situation, next week is unclear but the fact is that there is High Pressure over Scandinavia with a cold pool to our east up against the Atlantic. This set-up could throw-up a whole load of scenarios and outcomes and hopefully it will evidently lead to retrogression to a Greenland High.

[Northernlights]

4C and raw, occ light showers and no funny clouds today.

Just the same here ,still a lot of frost in the ground ,having to kick neeps out of frozen soil before picking them into the bucket.

[Cheggers]

Heard it all now.....

http://uk.omg.yahoo.com/news/panic-snow-threatens-weekends-dancing-ice-130153153.html

[Northernlights]

Obviously from the viewpoint of those south of the border we want winter synoptics in the next three weeks but up here I feel the second week of April is the cut off for disruptive snow even at my level. If the Greenland blocking eventually comes about it would not be unusual to last well into the spring here with repeated northerlies and easterlies lasting well into June.

[Hairy Celt]

Heard it all now.....

http://uk.omg.yahoo....-130153153.html

Amazing. Plague, pestilence, famine & war next.

[lorenzo]

A relatively uninspiring GFS 12z there, with some absolute gibberish beyond the higher resolution. Wouldn't be surprised to still see some changes over the next few days.

At 72 hours the Jet is flat lined and leaves us with this.

Just 30 hours later it looks weaker - could this change the output from here..

At 144 we have this selection.

UKMO one of the better looking charts on offer for an Easterly flow. GFS dispenses with the block ?

GEM toys with a couple of UK highs and NOGAPS would just need tweaked to give a good cold blast.

Over to the ECM and the suites to decipher where next, pity NOAA aren't available 7 days a week sometimes, could do with their commentary on this WAA.

In summary, models in transition still.. more patience required.. am deliberately ignoring the limpet UK high which has crept up among the output now and again.. !

Edited February 5, 2012 by lorenzo

[drm]

think Aberdeens luck with snow can be summed up by the fact more snow has fallen on the Algerian coast than here in the city this winter,

[LomondSnowstorm]

A relatively uninspiring GFS 12z there, with some absolute gibberish beyond the higher resolution. Wouldn't be surprised to still see some changes over the next few days.

At 72 hours the Jet is flat lined and leaves us with this.

Just 30 hours later it looks weaker - could this change the output from here..

At 144 we have this selection.

UKMO one of the better looking charts on offer for an Easterly flow. GFS dispenses with the block ?

GEM toys with a couple of UK highs and NOGAPS would just need tweaked to give a good cold blast.

Over to the ECM and the suites to decipher where next, pity NOAA aren't available 7 days a week sometimes, could do with their commentary on this WAA.

In summary, models in transition still.. more patience required.. am deliberately ignoring the limpet UK high which has crept up among the output now and again.. !

I'm hopeful that if the UK high does materialise it'll transfer to Greenland sharpish. If the general theme of 'the models have things too far east' trend continues the South Greenland shortwave will be situated over the eastern seaboard of North America and we'll be sitting pretty. I hope.

[lorenzo]

If it materialises and choses that route - fantastic.. otherwise it's the one who shan't be named antycyclonic gloom version!

[A Winter's Tale]

Really not happy with any of the model output and I pray that the models aren't picking up the background signals yet. If this theme of PV over Greenland, Azores High, failing retrogression and useless Scandi Hi continues for the next 5 days then I would think that having a decent cold spell for Scotland during February would look impossible. There's the chance of March seeing northern blocking but a big freeze in March is probably unheard of in this part of the world.

However, wintryness is more than possible during March and our best snowfalls could occur in the Spring so we don't really need a big freeze for March to get a more than decent event - also, aswell as snow I'd be looking forward to Spring weather in general come March.

Although this winter has been decent for me with great snow events, lying snow for about 10 days and some interesting spell of weather inbetween, I would really love it if we could get something more prolonged and interesting during the next 1 to 2 months.

If February fails to produce then that won't change the fact that this winter has been decent for Glasgow - however, for the east coast this winter has been a bit of a disaster with the rest of the UK other than the SW and Ireland having more snow than eastern Scotland. However, one battleground event in March could make things better - but the theme for February is no longer whether there will be a frost in Cork, it's whether it will ever Snow in Aberdeen or Edinburgh? I'm watching football in Spain on the TV where the temperature is -5C! I don't think anyone will be satisfied until everyone gets something good out of this winter - then Spring!

So, background signals are there for the taking, the fact is that the models are being overly progressive and this winter won't be over until it's over and even still there's Spring to follow - but what is everyone's thoughts and confidence of Northern Blocking and to whether it will snow in Eastern Scotland this winter?

[LomondSnowstorm]

If it materialises and choses that route - fantastic.. otherwise it's the one who shan't be named antycyclonic gloom version!

All depends on the PV splitting favourably. Teleconnections, Strat etc. say yes, current model output says no.

I believe the poor man who's name was given to the infamous high died recently.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72323-the-passing-away-of-paul-bartlett/

[LomondSnowstorm]

So, background signals are there for the taking, the fact is that the models are being overly progressive and this winter won't be over until it's over and even still there's Spring to follow - but what is everyone's thoughts and confidence of Northern Blocking and to whether it will snow in Eastern Scotland this winter?

It has snowed, just not in a particularly effective manner. I'm upbeat, I reckon we've still got a widespread 4-6 incher in us yet, even if it takes us till March. We've had one in every winter since 04/05 with the exception of 07/08 (which had multiple 1-2 inch snowfalls I recall) and in 4 of those years we had to wait until after the middle of February for it. February 2009 brought 4 inches on the 13th (?),I believe we had about 5 inches around the 14th (?) of February 2007 from an easterly, 05/06 had the famous 12th March snowfall of 6 inches and February/March 2005 had two four inch snowfalls from the east.

It's incredibly rare to see a proper PV rebuild in February, especially with a Stratosphere like this where we nearly had a technical SSW (and may still achieve one), so I don't see a situation where a well placed block doesn't develop in the next fortnight. ECM is close to having it develop next week, just a bit far south.

[A Winter's Tale]

The Kilted Thread really is a special place in this forum and I you appreciate even more when you read some other areas - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72487-north-west-of-england-regional-discussion-part-6/page__st__100 - WW3 in there.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The Kilted Thread really is a special place in this forum and I you appreciate even more when you read some other areas - http://forum.netweat...6/page__st__100 - WW3 in there.

It's nice how we don't bicker like that and just accept that people have different outlooks, from perennial rampers to mild lovers to those who take a dour Calvinistic view to model watching. It's what makes this such an interesting place and I wouldn't have it any other way

[November13]

Any optimism I had left is gone. Just seen the BBC 7 day weather nowt for us again. Everytime snow has been marginal it has been rain. I think this will be what I remember from this winter. Marginal events that always went the wrong way, 3 Epic storms, very mild Nov/Dec/Average Jan but with no snow. Now Feb is ticking away with no short term prospects of snow. I cannot remember even in the worst winters not having a big dump of snow in January. Awful! But that's life ,maybe next winter will be better...no point in us kidding that the winter was good just need to move on. I was talking to the guys at Glenshee and they agreed and they are worried they will have to down tools in March if it carries on.

[lorenzo]

Spotted that recently LS, not a Bartlett I was alluding too, remember the saga of this little fellow, winter kryptonite..

[LomondSnowstorm]

Spotted that recently LS, not a Bartlett I was alluding too, remember the saga of this little fellow, winter kryptonite..

Oh aye, not exactly a friend or a foe. That's the kind of meteorological purgatory I suggested we might end up banished to about a fortnight ago. Last year we had this to contend with though:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb9065.gif

Classic rex blocks of the 21st century:

'Faux' cold and fog aplenty!