The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 4

[cyclonic happiness]

We still have a smattering of snow here, I'd say around 12% but there are some drift of 10" in places!!

If we do get this snow, it'll be the first snow on snowfall in years!

Gonna go out on me bike in a bit and I'll take me camera so I can get a few arty picture of the bike in a winter landscape and that lol!

[MKN]

Metoffice warning just seems to highlight the fact where and how much people might see from this is still far from certain.

[richbiss]

Fingers crossed then! We still have an inch of snow lying here easy! Max temp yday was 0.2c

[Adzyy]

ellow Alert of Snow09 Feb 2012, 16:00

Yellow Alert of Snow

Valid From: 09 Feb 2012, 16:00

Valid To: 10 Feb 2012, 23:59

Issued at - 08 Feb 2012, 12:42

Valid from - 09 Feb 2012, 16:00

Valid to - 10 Feb 2012, 23:59

An area of snow is expected to develop over east and northeast England later on Thursday, and then during Friday this will extend steadily southwestwards into central and some southwestern parts of England, as well as the east of Wales. Whilst there is uncertainty regarding where the heaviest and most persistent snow will fall, accumulations of up to about 10cm are possible in the worst affected regions. The public should be aware that, as a result, there could be some disruption to travel.

[kold weather]

I think central Midlands is in a decent location, especially further south where the uppers are just that little bit cooler and say around -1C which in this sort of set-up with embedded cold would probably be enough.

As for further west, its a tough one to call. Uppers really are as marginal as you can possibnly get, I wouldn't be surprised here if its a mixture of every type of precip, in heavier bursts its snow, in lighter stuff its more sleety...however the surface IS cold enough for snow, for sure, especialy after Midnight.

[Adzyy]

Mmmh, am I in a decent position again?

[klippieboo]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/wm_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

[Ian Ballinger]

I know it's only metcheck, but they have us for snow from tomorrow afternoon and all day Friday, oh how I am hoping

[Turnedoutniceagain]

No sign of a thaw here. Still have loads of snow & ice

No sign of breaking 0c (currently -1c) from a low of -6.6c

Loving it....!!

[andy_leics22]

Yes, that is the frontal system in question. The band of associated precipitation will not be moving in from the NE; it'll be coming from the N or NW.

Is it? I just checked the Met Office Weather warning though and it says this...

An area of snow is expected to develop over east and northeast England later on Thursday, and then during Friday this will extend steadily southwestwards into central and some southwestern parts of England, as well as the east of Wales. Whilst there is uncertainty regarding where the heaviest and most persistent snow will fall, accumulations of up to about 10cm are possible in the worst affected regions. The public should be aware that, as a result, there could be some disruption to travel.

[Ian Ballinger]

Yeah, just read that. It is the frontal system to the west. It's just the way the front and associated precip begins to arch over the country as it encounters the cold block to the east, so the precip looks to end up approaching us from the N or NE. But the system is coming from the west.

If you get what I mean... lol.

Yea just seen it animated on the BBC, you lucky gits in the East

[marksp]

could be, or will be, in a great spopt again.

you really need some height in these marginal situations. tepms here dow to -7 again, and spots aound me could of got lower. It was still -5 at 7.30am.

so ppn arriving Thursday night into Friday morning will be falling through cold air at the surface. could just help it all fall as snow.

snow coverage still at 85% here with depths at 3 inches in most places. Plenty for sledging if you know what i mean.

also any snow cleared of cars and paths, driveways is just piled up where it was left, no real melt just 15% shrinkage.

[Costa Del Fal]

At least the 06z GFS shifted things westwards a bit. Lets hope it continues. Remember last week the GFS was a bit too bullish in the mild winning out. However this is a more different scenario. Id say snow chance here is about 30%. Freezing rain risk about 60% thus far.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Blizzards

[SalopWatcher]

Looks like were too far west again like last weekend in Shrewsbury at the moment (last weekend we had about 20 minutes of light hail, that was about it!). be nice to see a trend west, but its going to have to come some way yet..

That said I have to drive from Shrewsbury to Surrey friday morning and then back (at 11pm), So i might get to see some lying snow this winter!

Intresting to see how it pans out, even at this stage its fairly vauge from the Met office.

[Rose]

i'm 2miles from Tutbury & we have a thick covering still! Looks lovely even now, very different story just a few miles out, nearly all green, need some more to top it up! when i was little my mum used to say that when it had been sitting around for a few days it was waiting for more to come & take it away!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

My back garden....plenty of Snow n Ice !!

[Brum Watcher]

have the mods opened another thread yet. Significant snow risk etc. As does and is beginnning to look like some places will manage another 3 inches or so.

[Arctic Hare]

Managed -6.7C last night, which isn't bad going for February (though I think it was slightly colder in early Feb 2009). Another cold and grey day here, with the temp hovering at around 1C. My back-garden snow crust is still valiantly hanging on, but even an hour of rain would do for it now, I think.

The prospect of freezing rain worries me a good deal, partly because I fear a lot of people who haven't experienced it before will think, "Oh, that's just like when they warn of icy roads" and set off in their cars. I experienced the real freezing rain event in Bristol in late December 1995, and believe me, comparing normal icy roads with that is like comparing the snow we've just had with 1947. Cars were driving at 5-10 mph and still couldn't stop at T-junctions. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear that if we do get a full-scale freezing rain event, there will be an awful lot of accidents on the roads.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Arctic Hare

[kold weather]

have the mods opened another thread yet. Significant snow risk etc. As does and is beginnning to look like some places will manage another 3 inches or so.

There is a thread here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72499-significant-snow-risk-9-10th-february/

Probably won't be as much attention as the last one due to the out of the blue type nature of this event.

[fourseasons]

I personally think that it just looks far too marginal to have a significant snow event on Thursday/Friday. I think it's more likely that there will be a rain/sleet/snow mix for most areas. Some on the hills may do well out of it.

However, forecasts have been known to change at very short notice; it was surprising that the extent of the snow last weekend was further westwards than expected. Let''s hope for a pleasant surprise.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I know it's only metcheck, but they have us for snow from tomorrow afternoon and all day Friday, oh how I am hoping

Metcheck is GFS so good sign, as GFS is poorest model for snow

[Costa Del Fal]

We still have a little snow left here and plenty where it was piled up.

Anyway there are more models than just the GFS and NAE.

Exclusive Model check just for us grand Midlanders!

NMM - This seems to have pushed the colder air west slightly too but keeps snow to the East Midlands mainly however even the snow moves West as the front clears. You can find the NMM out to 60 hours for the Midlands, Southern England and France here: http://www.meteociel...eles/wrfnmm.php

HIRLAM (AEMET) - This looks very decent for pretty much all parts with colder uppers easily winning out with the front as it moves Eastwards. 2m Temps around 0c or just below for the Midlands throughout too.

ECM - Moves through a spell of snow for pretty much all too.

NOGAPS - This seems to keep the ppn more for the West but yet again, colder uppers pushing through. More marginal for a time though imo.

COAMPS - Quite similar to the NOGAPS with little ppn for the East with most of it for the West or even over to Wales and NW England. Colder air moving in again.

GME - More difficult to tell with no ppn charts but Upper temps (850hPa) between 0 and -4c for all pretty much.

CFS - More marginal imo with the colder uppers not really coming in till once the front has cleared.

GEM - Looks very good with Snow sliding across the Midlands as the front begins to move West again. Very good though a wintry mix in the NW Midlands early on I think.

BOM - OK I think with the ppn reaching the Midlands then pulling West with colder uppers.

Obviously in all models the coldest air is in the East but many of the models are good for much of the Midlands imo. Marginal as expected but I think most are on the right side of marginal.

Hope that helps.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Blizzards

[snow freak]

Well looks like northampton could be a good spot to be in again. we still have snow cover from last weekend's snowfall. If we get a few more inches on top of that we could end up with 10 inches. woohoo!!

[Luke]

Wow, where did this come from. Just checked the Met Office website and saw the warnings for snow! That's what you get when you don't check it for a few days!

[Eugene]

Was going to go for a walk in the northern cotswolds fringe, south warwickshire, gloucestershire, oxfordshire border area, anybody give me their best guess for the weather for friday in that area?

Is it best i go tomorrow instead of friday because it might be too bad with freezing rainfall or will it be moderate to heavy snowfall there?