North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[SP1986]

tonight should be frosty, maybe about -1C or -2C perhaps

[Backtrack]

tonight should be frosty, maybe about -1C or -2C perhaps

Could well be the coldest night of the year so far.

Not a breath of wind, and the skies are crystal clear bar a little high cloud, it's looking very clear to the North.

Heading to Wales tomorrow, so I am certain I will see some snow.

[SP1986]

Yep, there is literally no wind, so perhaps -3C is even possible..?

[Backtrack]

If you look here quick, you'll see that Snowdon has seen some snow already:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/northwest/sites/webcams/pages/snowdon.shtml

Sun is going down though - be quick!

Yep, there is literally no wind, so perhaps -3C is even possible..?

At the rate the temperature is dropping, it could dip even lower. The front has stalled over Ireland now as modelled, so cloud shouldn't be an issue tonight.

[Liam J]

Nice end to the day as the sun with a halo around it gets lower, mist hanging low over the fields. Calm winds and the temp is down to 3.4c now.

Not expecting much at all to happen with that front, very light ppn even if it did get here. winds swing Se'ly overnight and we see the continental air starting to journey towards the UK.

Likely to cloud over at some point overnight as the front get close but not close enough probably so I can't see temps falling sigificantly. NAE keeps it to far west, Wales may get pasted.

Edited January 28, 2012 by Liam J

[SnowObsessor90]

At it least it looks to be cold and dry under high pressure as Gavin D would say for the time being which is something if nothing else I guess. :lol:

Edited January 28, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Backtrack]

Cloud almost certainly won't be an issue guys. The Anglesey webcam is completely clear, and that's practically next door to the front.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/northwest/sites/webcams//pages/anglesey.shtml

Harsh frost tonight. -3C and lower possible. Even in Runcorn!

[SP1986]

Yes but thats looking towards Snowdonia, so you cant see what the northwest looks like. I can see cloud to the northwest, but it wont affect us, any cloud that might affect us is 12 hours away.

[Backtrack]

Yes but thats looking towards Snowdonia, so you cant see what the northwest looks like. I can see cloud to the northwest, but it wont affect us, any cloud that might affect us is 12 hours away.

I can also see high cloud to the North West now, but it won't affect us as you say, the clouds pretty much are moving South.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

have you seen ppn type charts bt on 12z it gibes us snow for nearly 50hrs

[Backtrack]

4.0C now - cooling fast!!!

have you seen ppn type charts bt on 12z it gibes us snow for nearly 50hrs

PPN will be very light, I doubt it will be of snow.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

i guess well just have to see. radar and nowcasting

[Backtrack]

i guess well just have to see. radar and nowcasting

Seems to be fresh PPN in the Irish Sea? Colder uppers must be starting to promote convection.

Not good, if it continues to move towards us, it will rain, as the temperatures and dewpoints won't have the chance to fall.

[Liam J]

Well the 12z is a downgrade for snowfall in the NW, block much stronger keeping the fronts and battleground set up at bay to far west. Still time for changes, becoming very cold next week.

down to 2.7c now.

Edited January 28, 2012 by Liam J

[Backtrack]

Well the 12z is a downgrade for snowfall in the NW, block much stronger keeping the fronts and sliders at bay.

down to 2.7c now.

Really? Thanks to TWS

GFS looks like it could pan out similarly to yesterday's 12Z run with the block ridging further north/west than on the 00Z and 06Z runs (and if anything slightly further so than on yesterday's 12Z run)- at T+96 a cold easterly flow is already establishing across eastern England and I would expect snow showers to become widespread over the next half-dozen frames of the run. Also a second frontal snow event is possible for Tuesday in western areas as a weak Atlantic system pushes against the block, so not necessarily a case of "east hogs all of the snow". As others have noted, though, nothing will be "nailed" on the evidence of tonight's runs given the low margin for error in the progged setup and I won't be surprised if some other runs (e.g. UKMO/ECM) keep us in a ridge of high pressure.

Edit: sure enough the GFS precipitation outputs show convective precipitation developing more widely on our side of the North Sea towards T+120.

[Liam J]

Yes Backtrack, a downgrade on the 6z. I didn't say the risk has gone completely.

Air profiles colder than Dec 2010, -13 to -15c uppers over our region, dew points -7 to -10c, air thckness below 515 Dam. We have a potentially severe cold spell on our hands. 12z may be a cold outlier however, who knows!

Edited January 28, 2012 by Liam J

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

We have a potentially severe cold spell on our hands. 12z may be a cold outlier however, who knows!

worse than the last few years

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

bt what is the current dam from netwx radar

[pnepaul]

Is this the right place for Workington now

Anyway, the high veil of cloud has all but gone in my part of the world. Looks like a cold night ahead.

[cfallon]

Check this out! Streamer anyone

[SnowObsessor90]

Yes Backtrack, a downgrade on the 6z. I didn't say the risk has gone completely.

Air profiles colder than Dec 2010, -13 to -15c uppers over our region, dew points -7 to -10c, air thckness below 515 Dam. We have a potentially severe cold spell on our hands. 12z may be a cold outlier however, who knows!

Not according to the UKMO.

Although that's not say it's the death nail forthis winter like the usual suspects seem to be implying over on the model thread.

[Liam J]

2.3c here, more high cloud filtering down from the north. Noticed thick fog over the solway when I took the dogs out about 16.30.

[UV-RAY]

Lets hope that this cold spell doesn't follow the usual Easterly set up, otherwise we could find ourselves looking on enviously at our East and SE cousins.

[Snow free zone]

Reading the model thread I can see why some people get annoyed. Since when has 'showers in the SE and along the East coast been an all UK event' I haven't criticized before , but certain posters should really know better.

[Lancashire Lass]

0.9c here and dropping fast