The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[Snowstorm1]

The radar is annoying me showing light precip snow but nothing falling pfft

[recklessabandon]

An outcome of this current spell is that all it will probably achieve is to lower the SSTs of the North Sea, so if/when we do get a decent easterly or north easterley we will a) need low uppers to help spark convection, but, B) be subject to less modification.

I don't think this is it, a number of upstream signals are pointing to a colder than average and blocked February, the METO have stuck to their guns on this for while now too. The key of late is to follow the general trends not the individual nuances.

[JP1972]

BBC Forecast shows light snow for Newcastle @ 0300 and 0600.

[damianslaw]

A raw but lovely sunny day here. However, the wind has picked up a bit this evening and there is more cloud developing. Might we just squeeze a snow grain from the sky tomorrow - mm not sure, could be a blink and miss affair. If we do then this month won't go down as a complete no snow show here - its been a very very dissapointing month on the snow front. The fells have been free of the white stuff for much of the time, thank goodness for the cold polar airstream late last week which delivered the goods.

The next 3 days at least look very cold, and we may see an ice day on Thursday, wednesday night looks a very cold one here - could get down to -10 degrees.

[Bridgehill Blizzard]

Light snow on and off here in Consett, a dusting lying on all surfaces.

[Snowstorm1]

BANK the Gfs 18z shows us getting a few inches come wednesday night / thursday.

Lets hope its right!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Is that both UKMO and Ecm showing this ? So only Gfs?

UKMO and ECM, yes, they show the ridge of high pressure sinking south on Thursday just as the cold airmass arrives, hence probably turning brighter with just isolated snow flurries near the coastal fringes before drying up completely for Friday. However the GFS continues to stick by its projection of a sluggish east to north-easterly flow during Thursday and Friday, so if the GFS 18Z verified we would again be looking at sunshine and snow showers (albeit probably just light to moderate showers due to the strength of the high pressure)- probably about 2-5cm in places.

I think predominantly dry cloudy weather is odds-on for tomorrow and Wednesday either way.

TWS

Will frontal snow at the weekend fall at all levels or most likely just away from the coast?

If it reaches us it will almost certainly snow at all levels, but it's a big "if", as it's not unusual for those frontal bands to largely fizzle as they pass over the Pennines. The Tyne and Wear/Durham/Northumberland area is not generally good for frontal snowfalls, but further west (especially into Cumbria) there is potential for significant falls. One issue is that we could also temporarily see milder air coming in, especially into the west, if those bands do make significant progress. Another of those knife-edge situations!

[Snowstorm1]

bbc look north saying snow showers particularly on thursday most at risk North Yorkshire

Not too bad then for me as been in the southern extent of our region for a change!

Edited January 30, 2012 by Snowstorm1

[NickR]

THis is why I don't like Easterlies. Let's face it, for seriously low temps and ice days we are in a poor region. The SE is far more prone to such conditions than we are, which is really galling. And when it comes to snow, likewise. Unless there is some NE angle, my experience is that we don't do nearly as well as the SE.

[Freezing-Point]

THis is why I don't like Easterlies. Let's face it, for seriously low temps and ice days we are in a poor region. The SE is far more prone to such conditions than we are, which is really galling. And when it comes to snow, likewise. Unless there is some NE angle, my experience is that we don't do nearly as well as the SE.

Where were you in Feb 1991? I wont forget the evening and night when i witnessed the heaviest and most frequent snow showers I have seen. I lived just north of Morpeth then and got just under 12" of power snow that night.

However I would agree that the cold is more modified due to the longer sea track up north from a Easterly.

[NickR]

Where were you in Feb 1991? I wont forget the evening and night when i witnessed the heaviest and most frequent snow showers I have seen. I lived just north of Morpeth then and got just under 12" of power snow that night.

However I would agree that the cold is more modified due to the longer sea track up north from a Easterly.

I was in Surrey and we got at least that. ;)Fact is areas further south are more prone to very heavy dumps because they get some heavy frontal snow, and such falls - though possible - from convection are rarer.

Temps wise it is a shame that we never get the depth of cold that more southern parts get.

I see an Easterly being forecast and it simply fills me with dread - we almost always get cold gloomy conditions (even now we have higher temps than elsewhere because of the cloud, without any ppn to speak of - the worst of both worlds), while the SE brigade revel in snow and very cold conditions. NE seems to be the only decent direction and that's very rare.

Moan over.

Edited January 30, 2012 by NickR

[Freezing-Point]

I was in Surrey and we got at least that.

Temps wise it is a shame that we never get the depth of cold that more southern parts get.

I see an Easterly being forecast and it simply fills me with dread - we almost always get cold gloomy conditions (even now we have higher temps than elsewhere because of the cloud, without any ppn to speak of - the worst of both worlds), while the SE brigade revel in snow and very cold conditions. NE seems to be the only decent direction and that's very rare.

Moan over.

You are certainly right about the NEasterly. Nov / Dec 2010 proved that. I was amazed at how much snow we got from such a slack NE flow and uppers which could have been lower if the source had been colder.

I cannot recall and have not seen any charts posted of a strong NE flow with sub -10 uppers. Anyone know of one?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

As I hobbled round the village, covering 500m in about 20 minutes, it looked like there'd been the barest dusting of snow.

[Isolated Frost]

Polar continental source easterlies often deliver much more for southern areas- with east to south-east winds usually dominating- also, upper troughs can move into france and the benelux with v cold associated with them- meaning the south especially is usually at the top edge of the very cold air (Jan 87, Feb 91 etc). Often, polar continental flows are due to blocking in Scandinavia or Russia- and therefore pressure is quite high in northern parts due to the usual strength of the block- this can limit precipitation in the north and north-east.

Arctic continental flows however are usually caused by blocking towards Greenland, at times ridging towards Iceland or Svalbard, and the jet steaming into southern europe. Under this pattern, the flow is dominated by cool NE/E flows for much of the time, with generally colder air than Pc flows, unless the Pc flow is disrupted by an upper trough. The Ac airflow has a longer sea track and so causes modification but upper air temps are usually sufficient, especially in the north-east.

[Alex95]

When an easterly is delivered by high pressure over Northern Scandinavia the NE can do very well, it tends to be the Russian high which leads to a cold, dry, murky easterly. I still think we will get sunshine and snow showers later on in the week, but if the easterly sinks too quickly the showers won't necessarily come onshore.

NE'ly is the best direction for us, but a good easterly can be nearly as good. Traditionally, easterlies deliver to most to NE England and Kent, such as in December 2005.

Our best chance this time may be frontal snow at the weekend. Frontal snow doesn't always fizzle out - I got 6cm in December 2008 despite 850s of around -3.

Edited January 31, 2012 by alza

[NickR]

No frost even last night. Low was 1.1°C. Got to say that was a poor forecast by the Beeb/Meto.

[Airedalejoe]

Forecast I saw on Look North at 6.50pm said down to -3 but as high as +2, depending on the sea's influence!

[NickR]

Forecast I saw on Look North at 6.50pm said down to -3 but as high as +2, depending on the sea's influence!

Middleton in Teesdale got down to -0.8°C

Durham got down to 1.1°C

Hardly coastal locations. Sorry but that's a poor forecast, especially given forecasters with local knowledge.

[lizmartin1981]

Lowest we got down to was 2.2c overnight, currently 3.5c with a dewpoint of -2.4c.

[recklessabandon]

Cold dull and mainly dry is what the latest model outputs are suggesting until the end of the week. After Saturday it is anyone's guess.

Its panic stations in the chasing snow thread (sorry Model Output Discussion...) as the prognosis becomes less encouraging for cold and snow generally in the coming days.....anyone else missing the sun?

[Thundery wintry showers]

When an easterly is delivered by high pressure over Northern Scandinavia the NE can do very well, it tends to be the Russian high which leads to a cold, dry, murky easterly. I still think we will get sunshine and snow showers later on in the week, but if the easterly sinks too quickly the showers won't necessarily come onshore.

NE'ly is the best direction for us, but a good easterly can be nearly as good. Traditionally, easterlies deliver to most to NE England and Kent, such as in December 2005.

Our best chance this time may be frontal snow at the weekend. Frontal snow doesn't always fizzle out - I got 6cm in December 2008 despite 850s of around -3.

Looking at the latest GFS run it's looking less likely that many of the showers will get onshore on Thursday, as the ridge sinks southwards more quickly on the GFS 06Z run, falling into line with the UKMO and ECMWF. Probably just a few decaying snow flurries near the east coast on Thursday.

I think generally speaking you are right about the Russian vs Greenland/Scandinavian high. A high well to the east will tend to feed in predominantly south-easterly winds, which often receive modification from southern Europe, and so such airmasses are often cold at the surface but relatively mild aloft, resulting in stratocumulus trapped under an inversion. If the high is centred over northern Scandinavia it is more likely to pull in a direct easterly flow and colder uppers from Russia, with the colder airmass at upper levels providing more instability. Easterly outbreaks via eastward-ridging Greenland highs, like at the end of November 2010, are the most likely to produce sunshine and snow showers as the airmass is guaranteed to be sourced from a long way north as well as east, and the airmass profiles tend to be unstable following the passage over the North Sea.

Easterly types certainly favour the SE for intense cold, but for snowfalls it depends on the setup- if we're talking a stable easterly with fronts approaching the south, the SE wins out, but if we're talking an unstable east to north-easterly regime the NE may pick up heavy snow showers due to the long track over the North Sea, with the SE being drier due to the shorter track over the North Sea. The easterly outbreaks around the 20th-22nd November 1993 and the 20th-22nd February 1994 were good examples of the latter, with the heaviest snowfalls concentrated over east Scotland, NE England, Lincolnshire and Norfolk (there was even thundersnow at Newcastle on the 21st February 1994), and the Home Counties mostly seeing just the odd dusting.

The south-east is every bit as prone to long runs of dull dry weather from easterly winds as the north-east. During February 1986 there was a strong emphasis on dry cloudy weather in central, southern and south-eastern England, while in eastern Scotland and north-east England sunshine and precipitation totals were closer to average. February 1947 also saw the sunshine shortages most concentrated towards the SE, although it was a generally cloudier and snowier month than Feb '86.

[NickR]

Signs in the models of a possible N/NE'ly flow from day 9... FI, but that would be much better for us that this hopeless E'ly.

[4wd]

Suddenly clearing out just as the sun is going down.

Wind is picking up too, but a proper frost seems more likely.

[Alex95]

Sunshine!!! Finally we could be looking at a sunny and cold day tomorrow, possibly with light snow showers.

[Mick ne durham]

Looks like, light showers building up in the North Sea,possible get something out of them.