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Osbourne One-Nil

The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

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Hindsight's a wonderfull thing!! In post 29 of this thread you appear to suggest little precip today, now as it's happning you're suggesting you knew we would be seeing heavy prolonged rain at the coast?!!

I'm impressed you knew this would happen.

I got a short memory! Although I did notice the trough on the Fax charts so I expected a bit of PPN around but I wasnt expecting any stunning cloudscapes though. In all honesty, the trough probably came earlier than predicted which may suggest a slight westwards movement of the high therefore, I don't know.

Around here we had light-moderate showery outbreaks of rain, did threaten to be sleety rain but it never really got that heavy sadly.

Another look at the ECM may suggest some snow showers but the problem for us is that pressure builds quickly which means showers will struggle to penatrate too far inland, my concern will be thicknesses and whether or not that will support any meaningful convection. Still can change however as we all know from the up and down nature of the models.

If the UKMO occurs then I can't see much if any PPN for anywhere on the east coast, no matter what region you are in!

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I got a short memory! Although I did notice the trough on the Fax charts so I expected a bit of PPN around but I wasnt expecting any stunning cloudscapes though. In all honesty, the trough probably came earlier than predicted which may suggest a slight westwards movement of the high therefore, I don't know.

Around here we had light-moderate showery outbreaks of rain, did threaten to be sleety rain but it never really got that heavy sadly.

Another look at the ECM may suggest some snow showers but the problem for us is that pressure builds quickly which means showers will struggle to penatrate too far inland, my concern will be thicknesses and whether or not that will support any meaningful convection. Still can change however as we all know from the up and down nature of the models.

If the UKMO occurs then I can't see much if any PPN for anywhere on the east coast, no matter what region you are in!

Haha!!

It never ceases to amaze me what the North sea can produce, heavy snow or heavy rain, winter and summer (not snow!), when all forecasts have missed it, even just hours away!! A law unto itself, so dont be surprised if we end up surprised this week. I'm not clever enough to see where and when (if at all) but I'd be shocked even after looking at tonights charts, if we dont see a canny covering at some point this week.

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I think if the GFS or ECM verify I'll be very surprised if Cleadon doesn't end up with at least a few centimetres of snow by Thursday evening. The slack easterly flow on Thursday may limit the inland penetration of showers but the cold pool at upper levels should promote plenty of heavy snow showers over the North Sea. The GFS and ECMWF both indicate the possibility of frontal snow across the region during this coming weekend too.

However if the UKMO comes off I think I'll be lucky if I see any of the white stuff bar some sleety flurries up until Tuesday.

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It appears I have not been looking at the wider pic regarding convection o/the N Sea.

The TT index should fall dramatically this evening- as does lapse rates and shear. The instability is there, but the overall convection may not be. SES is not as straight-forward as I thought- I hope the really cold uppers make an effect otherwise things could be very disappointing.

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It appears I have not been looking at the wider pic regarding convection o/the N Sea.

The TT index should fall dramatically this evening- as does lapse rates and shear. The instability is there, but the overall convection may not be. SES is not as straight-forward as I thought- I hope the really cold uppers make an effect otherwise things could be very disappointing.

:o :(

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post-6686-0-83929900-1327866718_thumb.png

weathermaster's snow map for tomorrow

Some sleet possible in the NE of England. NAE showing -10C uppers near E coast tomorrow with a decent enough flow so expect some wintry showers at the east coast.

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I got a short memory! Although I did notice the trough on the Fax charts so I expected a bit of PPN around but I wasnt expecting any stunning cloudscapes though. In all honesty, the trough probably came earlier than predicted which may suggest a slight westwards movement of the high therefore, I don't know.

Around here we had light-moderate showery outbreaks of rain, did threaten to be sleety rain but it never really got that heavy sadly.

Another look at the ECM may suggest some snow showers but the problem for us is that pressure builds quickly which means showers will struggle to penatrate too far inland, my concern will be thicknesses and whether or not that will support any meaningful convection. Still can change however as we all know from the up and down nature of the models.

If the UKMO occurs then I can't see much if any PPN for anywhere on the east coast, no matter what region you are in!

i see you glass is still half full,every year we get the same from you.you must be a right bundle of fun to have a night out with.

the cold is comming predicting snowfall is hit and miss at best.lets just wait and see what happens.

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Looking at the Lamposts here in Washington, there seems to be Flakes of Snow falling..Either that, or I'm imagining it..

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i see you glass is still half full,every year we get the same from you.you must be a right bundle of fun to have a night out with.

the cold is comming predicting snowfall is hit and miss at best.lets just wait and see what happens.

Believe me, it stops me from having a bleeding arm when downgrades do occur! :)

No doubt the cold is coming, never disputed that but its snowfall that is more uncertain. What people need to realise that its not all about cold uppers over a warm sea, people in the model thread were critical of the GFS PPN charts and whilst there may be some truth it can sometimes underestimate PPN, the reason it has been underestimating PPN is because the thicknesses are high thus the air is stable(in basic terms, the north sea on the wetterzentrale charts were yellow and not pale green/blue). The ECM seems to improve thicknesses somewhat so I expect some more in the way of convective PPN, its just whether the showers will make it far enough inland.

In actual fact thicknesses seem to play more of a part than I thought, the temp/dewpoint was marginally higher today hence most people saw rain despite a lower upper air temp and no breeze yet the event during December had slightly milder upper air temps but much lower thicknesses and we saw a rain turning to snow event although it did turn back to rain as the breeze picked up from the North Sea. Also the PPN on that day came from a convective source rather than a dynamic one like we seen today.

Just keep intune with the models because we can still get some short term upgrades.

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Looks like there a few small showers popping up in the north sea to the east of us or am i seeing things that arnt there it has been known :smilz38:

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Believe me, it stops me from having a bleeding arm when downgrades do occur! :)

No doubt the cold is coming, never disputed that but its snowfall that is more uncertain. What people need to realise that its not all about cold uppers over a warm sea, people in the model thread were critical of the GFS PPN charts and whilst there may be some truth it can sometimes underestimate PPN, the reason it has been underestimating PPN is because the thicknesses are high thus the air is stable(in basic terms, the north sea on the wetterzentrale charts were yellow and not pale green/blue). The ECM seems to improve thicknesses somewhat so I expect some more in the way of convective PPN, its just whether the showers will make it far enough inland.

In actual fact thicknesses seem to play more of a part than I thought, the temp/dewpoint was marginally higher today hence most people saw rain despite a lower upper air temp and no breeze yet the event during December had slightly milder upper air temps but much lower thicknesses and we saw a rain turning to snow event although it did turn back to rain as the breeze picked up from the North Sea. Also the PPN on that day came from a convective source rather than a dynamic one like we seen today.

Just keep intune with the models because we can still get some short term upgrades.

Good point- but thicknesses are not that instrumental. 500hpa to 1000hpa thicknesses (used by many)- are around 516dm to 522dm in the north sea currently-- however, with pressure very high (around 1030hpa), thicknesses are quite large on the 500hpa to slp level.

Air pressure is quite important and more so than thicknesses in this case- also a cold pool at 500hpa with sub -30c air is slowly warming this evening, encouraging less convection.

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I think having an interest in the weather is hard work! Especially when it comes to snow. I would hate to be a forecaster right now as I think things are so bloody changeable in our region atm

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radar suggest it's been snowing in Newcastle for an hour or so... no updates on here... anyone?

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Very light snow here at the moment,the drier colder air is working its way in.

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something not right with the new radar v6.it looks too sensitive to me and shows rain when there is nothing at all.i pm'd Paul regards it being an opacity prob or not?

it#s certainly not as good as the old version wich iv'e reverted back to.then again it's new and probs needs a few tweaks here and there.

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Believe me, it stops me from having a bleeding arm when downgrades do occur! :)

No doubt the cold is coming, never disputed that but its snowfall that is more uncertain. What people need to realise that its not all about cold uppers over a warm sea, people in the model thread were critical of the GFS PPN charts and whilst there may be some truth it can sometimes underestimate PPN, the reason it has been underestimating PPN is because the thicknesses are high thus the air is stable(in basic terms, the north sea on the wetterzentrale charts were yellow and not pale green/blue). The ECM seems to improve thicknesses somewhat so I expect some more in the way of convective PPN, its just whether the showers will make it far enough inland.

In actual fact thicknesses seem to play more of a part than I thought, the temp/dewpoint was marginally higher today hence most people saw rain despite a lower upper air temp and no breeze yet the event during December had slightly milder upper air temps but much lower thicknesses and we saw a rain turning to snow event although it did turn back to rain as the breeze picked up from the North Sea. Also the PPN on that day came from a convective source rather than a dynamic one like we seen today.

Just keep intune with the models because we can still get some short term upgrades.

it's been a stressful couple of weeks lol,just get ya chin up a bit man.

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radar suggest it's been snowing in Newcastle for an hour or so... no updates on here... anyone?

Drizzle more like.

Nothing white whatsoever.

I have a feeling this 'cold spell' will deliver bo diddly.

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Drizzle more like.

Nothing white whatsoever.

I have a feeling this 'cold spell' will deliver bo diddly.

We still appear to be on the wrong side of the marginal, conditions should improve within the next few hours into tomorrow morning as dew points eventually drop. Any precipitation after this should be wintry in nature.

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And ANOTHER poor forecast here. Temps not below 0.7°C, despite the forecast for a widespread frost. I don't understand whay they get temps so wrong so often for our region.

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Low lapse rate, relatively high pressure without a noticeable upper trough/cold pool and therefore high thickness, and generally not enough moisture or energy to produce any meaningful convection- add this to low wind speeds making any very weak or unlikely for land.

So that's a shame- we have another day where things are not that favourable for snow showers working inland- especially as less cool uppers work there way in from the SE.

A trough, occluded front or upper trough nearby advocating CAA is necessary for any prolonged or noteworthy snow showers, otherwise for today the best bet is rogue showers meandering w'wards into parts of the region- notably the FAX still has that occluded front for tonight which may provide interest.

0.5c with a dew point of -0.5c here, mixture of low and medium cloud.

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And ANOTHER poor forecast here. Temps not below 0.7°C, despite the forecast for a widespread frost. I don't understand whay they get temps so wrong so often for our region.

Temp actually continuing to fall, now down to 0.3 DP -1, fingers crossed!

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Low lapse rate, relatively high pressure without a noticeable upper trough/cold pool and therefore high thickness, and generally not enough moisture or energy to produce any meaningful convection- add this to low wind speeds making any very weak or unlikely for land.

And unfortunately, whether Peter thinks i'm negative or not is likely to affect the rest of the week hence the dry nature of the PPN charts on the GFS run so whilst there might be a few showers around, don't be expecting to have any snowfall in which you will dust your sledge off, unless the PPN charts are horribly wrong. It will be down to radar watching though at the end of the day.

Also the models are very dissapointing, what a waste really, 1060 MB high, severe cold pooling and yet snowfall looks like it will be limited, certainly missed a great chance no matter how TETIS and Steve M dress it up!

Just had a light grapuel flurry also, but you only need to look at the clouds outside and the sat image to show how stable things look.

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And unfortunately, whether Peter thinks i'm negative or not is likely to affect the rest of the week hence the dry nature of the PPN charts on the GFS run so whilst there might be a few showers around, don't be expecting to have any snowfall in which you will dust your sledge off, unless the PPN charts are horribly wrong. It will be down to radar watching though at the end of the day.

Also the models are very dissapointing, what a waste really, 1060 MB high, severe cold pooling and yet snowfall looks like it will be limited, certainly missed a great chance no matter how TETIS and Steve M dress it up!

Just had a light grapuel flurry also, but you only need to look at the clouds outside and the sat image to show how stable things look.

Hate to say it, but I agree with all of that. I'm beginning to get a bit weary of reading people who ramp snow/cold chances. There is a difference between giving(very positive) analyses of the models and forecasting the weather that will happen. Many on here go for the former, which is fair enough, but it shouldn't be mistaken for the latter, which is what the METO, for example, do. And I know who normally ends up right...

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I rather like days like today with temperatures hovering round freezing and snow grains fluttering down from time to time.

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